Kings pick up option on G Ben McLemore (The Associated Press)

[Sac.Kings]

Today's word is consistency. However, we've not defined it.

I've said it: Hitting the open shots almost every game and playing good defense every game, while putting in good effort overall and staying out of the way. Not everything shows up on a stat sheet. I really don't consider Anderson as a replacement for Ben because he isn't more talented. However, watching the game (and watching Ben in particular), one picks up on things. Teammates are becoming less and less inclined to pass him the ball for a shot. There have been several occasions where Rondo could have passed the ball to Ben for the open three, but didn't. Also, when Ben curls on a screen or comes towards the ball, he's gotta want that ball and make it clear that he wants it. Clap your hands so the entire building hears that you want the damn ball. Instead, he just raises his arms half heartedly as if he is unsure if he really even wants it in the first place. He's a timid and shy guy that plays timidly on the court.

All that being said, I am not advocating that we shun Ben. He's worth investing in because of his young age, but like any investment, you want a return on it and maximize on the profit. We need our SG to hit threes/open shots, play defense, and generally not get in the way. That is not very complicated to do and is reserved for a role-player. I suspect Ben will be the starter, but his leash has been tightened now because we can hardly afford to have Ben cost us games with his inability to provide what we need. As I mentioned, if Ben doesn't start, it's not because Anderson did something miraculous to earn his spot, it's because Ben was inadequate in his role and we need someone else to try and step up. Most of Ben's problems are completely in his head. It's too bad because he has a lot of talent. If Ben all of a sudden could average 13 points on 39% from three and 45% from the field overall while being consistent in his role (good defense every night, good shot selection, hitting the open shots, etc), I would be much more confident in our ability to make the playoffs.

 

[LPKingsFan]

If Ben all of a sudden could average 13 points on 39% from three and 45% from the field overall while being consistent in his role (good defense every night, good shot selection, hitting the open shots, etc), I would be much more confident in our ability to make the playoffs.

That pretty much describes Ben McLemore under Malone to start last season.

check out the November and December splits: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mclembe01/splits/2015/

 

[parker]

Most of Ben's problems are completely in his head. It's too bad because he has a lot of talent. If Ben all of a sudden could average 13 points on 39% from three and 45% from the field overall while being consistent in his role (good defense every night, good shot selection, hitting the open shots, etc), I would be much more confident in our ability to make the playoffs.

A quick check of 2014-15 stat sheet shows there were 10 guards (pg and sg) who averaged those numbers you're expecting of McLemore.

And there were no 22 year olds putting up those numbers, but Fournier and Beal put up similar numbers to McLemore.

 

[Livinthedream]

That pretty much describes Ben McLemore under Malone to start last season.

check out the November and December splits: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mclembe01/splits/2015/

And really wasn't that far off for the season. We all love Belli and he doesnt even put up those numbers. It's non sequitur. That's why this whole discussion is frustrating.

Then factor in the whole turmoil of the season....

 

[Sac.Kings]

That pretty much describes Ben McLemore under Malone to start last season.

check out the November and December splits: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mclembe01/splits/2015/

Yes, but the season isn't just from November to December. As much as you're helping your argument, you're also aiding mine. Inconsistency. Yes I know what happened last season, but did you see Rudy's stats or impact decline? How about Cousins? Or Thompson? Even Ray stepped up a little. That's what I mean when I say Ben can't string solid performances together. You have to know what you're getting out of a player and with Ben its anyone's guess. Might be 20 points, might be 0. We can't have that.

 

[Chubbs]

I've said it: Hitting the open shots almost every game and playing good defense every game, while putting in good effort overall and staying out of the way. Not everything shows up on a stat sheet. I really don't consider Anderson as a replacement for Ben because he isn't more talented. However, watching the game (and watching Ben in particular), one picks up on things. Teammates are becoming less and less inclined to pass him the ball for a shot. There have been several occasions where Rondo could have passed the ball to Ben for the open three, but didn't. Also, when Ben curls on a screen or comes towards the ball, he's gotta want that ball and make it clear that he wants it. Clap your hands so the entire building hears that you want the damn ball. Instead, he just raises his arms half heartedly as if he is unsure if he really even wants it in the first place. He's a timid and shy guy that plays timidly on the court.

All that being said, I am not advocating that we shun Ben. He's worth investing in because of his young age, but like any investment, you want a return on it and maximize on the profit. We need our SG to hit threes/open shots, play defense, and generally not get in the way. That is not very complicated to do and is reserved for a role-player. I suspect Ben will be the starter, but his leash has been tightened now because we can hardly afford to have Ben cost us games with his inability to provide what we need. As I mentioned, if Ben doesn't start, it's not because Anderson did something miraculous to earn his spot, it's because Ben was inadequate in his role and we need someone else to try and step up. Most of Ben's problems are completely in his head. It's too bad because he has a lot of talent. If Ben all of a sudden could average 13 points on 39% from three and 45% from the field overall while being consistent in his role (good defense every night, good shot selection, hitting the open shots, etc), I would be much more confident in our ability to make the playoffs.

Those numbers you list are almost exactly Ben's from last season.

Perfect world Ben : 13ppg, 39% 3's, 45% field.
Actual Ben:12.1 ppg, 36% 3's, 44% field.

 

[Sac.Kings]

Those numbers you list are almost exactly Ben's from last season.

Perfect world Ben : 13ppg, 39% 3's, 45% field.
Actual Ben:12.1 ppg, 36% 3's, 44% field.

Yes, but that's only looking at one side of the equation. Ben's defensive rating last season was worse than Kevin Martin's, who is labeled here as a soft defender (which he is). However, offensively Ben's career rating is 101, and Martin's is 115. That's a huge gulf between them.

Like I said, numbers don't always speak the whole story. I don't need numbers to tell me what I can see with my own eyes. While on paper Ben comes out as decent in regards to percentages, he's so hot and cold that it makes him unreliable. In a role player position, that unreliability simply cannot happen for a 3rd straight season. It was tolerable the first two seasons because we were young, but that's no longer true.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

I think that we all understand that defensive rating is more heavily influenced by how good the team is defensively than other defensive statistics. Or, at least, I thought we did. Anybody who would try to make the argument that Kevin Martin is a better defender than Ben McLemore is providing a textbook example of how to misuse statistics.

As to Anderson being a better defender, eh... I'll stipulate to Anderson being a better help defender, I'm not convinced that he's a better man defender. I'm not going to touch the "IQ" or "mentality" discussion, since I trust neither myself nor any of the rest of you to discuss the topic without using contentious or inflammatory verbiage.

 

[Amit149]

Yes, but that's only looking at one side of the equation. Ben's defensive rating last season was worse than Kevin Martin's, who is labeled here as a soft defender (which he is). However, offensively Ben's career rating is 101, and Martin's is 115. That's a huge gulf between them.

Like I said, numbers don't always speak the whole story. I don't need numbers to tell me what I can see with my own eyes. While on paper Ben comes out as decent in regards to percentages, he's so hot and cold that it makes him unreliable. In a role player position, that unreliability simply cannot happen for a 3rd straight season. It was tolerable the first two seasons because we were young, but that's no longer true.

The part about his defense is flat out not true,
Kevin Martin had one of the worst defensive ratings among guards at 111.7, and Ben was a far better 104.5 (almost identicle to DC's rating)- it's important to note that since DefRtg is basically the number of points per 100 possessions that the team allows while he is on the court- you want it to be low.
That's part of the reason why Ben's net rating (-1.3) is better than K-Mart's awful -10.9.

 

[Sac.Kings]

The part about his defense is flat out not true,
Kevin Martin had one of the worst defensive ratings among guards at 111.7, and Ben was a far better 104.5 (almost identicle to DC's rating)- it's important to note that since DefRtg is basically the number of points per 100 possessions that the team allows while he is on the court- you want it to be low.
That's part of the reason why Ben's net rating (-1.3) is better than K-Mart's awful -10.9.

Here are the stats. Kevin Martin defensive rating per 100 possessions is 111 for his career.
http://m.bkref.com/m?p=XXplayersXXmXXmartike02.html&t=3

Ben's stats: 112 both his first year and second year.
http://m.bkref.com/m?p=XXplayersXXmXXmclembe01.html&t=3

I don't know what you're reading but I see 112. Not 104.5... Please provide a link to your info. His offensive rating is 104, so I'm guessing you mixed them up. By the way, you want the offensive rating to be higher, not lower.

 

[Amit149]

Here are the stats. Kevin Martin defensive rating per 100 possessions is 111 for his career.
http://m.bkref.com/m?p=XXplayersXXmXXmartike02.html&t=3

Ben's stats: 112 both his first year and second year.
http://m.bkref.com/m?p=XXplayersXXmXXmclembe01.html&t=3

I don't know what you're reading but I see 112. Not 104.5... Please provide a link to your info. His offensive rating is 104, so I'm guessing you mixed them up. By the way, you want the offensive rating to be higher, not lower.

There is a link on the "not true" in my former post, but here it is (Ben is 2nd page, K-Mart 3rd page):
http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/advanced/?sort=DEF_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular Season&PlayerPosition=G&CF=MIN*G*20|GP*G*30

And here is one that go directly to Ben:
http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/203463/stats/advanced/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular Season

And those stats are about last year because your originial post was:

Ben's defensive rating last season was worse than Kevin Martin's

EDIT: it seems like there is a difference in the case of certain players between NBA.com and Basketball-reference that caused this confusion... in NBA.com glossary it says about DefRtg:

Measures a team's points allowed per 100 possessions. On a player level this statistic is team points allowed per 100 possessions while he is on court. This statistic is also more exact than typical Player "possession based" calculations, because we calculate rather than estimate players' possessions on the court.

 

[pshn80]

Some subjective observations (no stats) on Ben's defense. I think it fair to say that to start with he is both very fast and very quick. We knew that about him from the beginning. Watching him play the last two years I would wonder how guys got by him or lost him. Too often his instinct would lead him to move the wrong way and his guy is free and too often gone. Has anyone else noticed anything like that?

 

[206Fan]

Someone on Reddit made an amazing point and I'll share here while expanding.

Fans want McLemore to breakout and become an explosive player. Question, how can he do that when he plays next to 2 ball dominant, heavy usage, and iso players? How do you suppose our 4th option breakout? Not even that, but you're limiting Ben to stay at the 3pt line in order to make more space in the paint for Cuz. We all know Ben is amazing when he gets the 1st step on his defender in attacking the rim. He's a good slasher and finisher at the rim.

Ben's touches and shots throughout his career has been so damn inconsistent. He never knows when he'll get a chance to see the ball. Most of the time, it's when Cuz or Rudy feel like passing it.

That is not going to work for a young player like Ben. You force him to stand behind the arc and move around behind the arc, Get out of Cousins' way and space the floor. You give him 10 random shots a game and you expect him to make at least 5 of them.

WHY?????


Sure, you're saying "Danny Green does this all the time in the Spurs!!! It's easy!!!".

Do you know the difference between Danny Green and Ben McLemore? Even when Green is not getting consistent shots, he's still getting consistent touches on the ball. In the Spurs team, the ball passes around to EVERYONE.

Danny Green is still involved in the offense even when he's not shooting because they're still passing the ball to him and letting him touch it. How many times last season did the Kings had more than 4 people touch the ball and it ended up as an assist?

Back to Ben, this guy is NOT involved in the offense. This has a lot to do with how much this team is built around Cousins and Rudy. Cousins is a heavy iso guy who likes to pound the ball in the paint. He does not pass as often as he should (except for the last 10 games of the season). Nor does Gay pass as often as he should.

So you're going to give Ben inconsistent touches, inconsistent shots, and you expect him to become a beast player and just deal with it.


This is why 3&D players work on good passing teams!

Kyle Korver, Danny Green, DeMaree Carroll, Trevor Ariza, Wesley Matthews, Draymond Green, Harrison Banes, Mike Dunleavy, Anthony Morrow, and Anthony Morrow

What do all of those player have in common? They come from teams that know how to pass the ball...and they actually have something called "ball movement". So you're telling me, that a guy who's consistently involved in the offense becomes kind of good? Who would've knew..


It is no surprise that Ben had his exploding games where Cuz or Rudy were out.

As ridiculous as this sounds, this offense is not the best for 3&D guys. We have 2 very very ball dominant and ball pounding guys as our best players.

When you give inconsistent touches and shots to a young SG...in return, he's going to be inconsistent too!


Let's dump a 22yearold with a crap load of potential for a 32yearold at his ceiling. So once his contract is up, he'll be 34 with an injury history. Once Ben's contract is up, he'll be 25 on Demarcus's last contract year with the Kings. Keep in mind, we've pretty much mortgaged out future into 2019. Let's dump Ben because he's not doing as well as we want him to as a starter in preseason. Let's not keep him and see how he develops because it'll take a huge toll in our playoff run this year coming off of 29 wins!

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

With all that being said, I am willing to stipulate that a spot shooter actually might be a better fit for our starting lineup than a kid who can do what McLemore does. I tend to feel like it is premature to call McLemore a bust or whatever, but I do think that it's fair to suggest that, when the core of your team is a ball-dominant big man and a ball-dominant wing, and you have a roleplayer who needs more touches to be effective, the solution isn't necessarily to give him more touches; the solution might be to replace him with a roleplayer who needs fewer touches.

That doesn't mean that the replacement is a better player, but it might mean he's a better fit.

 

[LPKingsFan]

Yes, but the season isn't just from November to December. As much as you're helping your argument, you're also aiding mine. Inconsistency. Yes I know what happened last season, but did you see Rudy's stats or impact decline? How about Cousins? Or Thompson? Even Ray stepped up a little. That's what I mean when I say Ben can't string solid performances together. You have to know what you're getting out of a player and with Ben its anyone's guess. Might be 20 points, might be 0. We can't have that.

I did see the team fall off a collective cliff after November and December, yes. Did everyone's numbers suffer? No, but this place was chaos, and it's understandable for a second year player to suffer with consistency. I'll also take the 30 game sample of November and December 2014 over this year's preseason, as well.

Now, you do raise a good point that Ben's numbers might not show the whole picture, given that the averages mask the inconsistency. Has anyone seen a site with some sort of measurement on a how a player's numbers vary? I'd be curious to see that, but haven't seen it anywhere. Without going through the game logs and coming up with our own metric (and as much as I enjoy these discussions, I'm not doing that ), it seems like the inconsistency/consistency discussion is too subjective to get very far.

 

[LPKingsFan]

Here are the stats. Kevin Martin defensive rating per 100 possessions is 111 for his career.
http://m.bkref.com/m?p=XXplayersXXmXXmartike02.html&t=3

Ben's stats: 112 both his first year and second year.
http://m.bkref.com/m?p=XXplayersXXmXXmclembe01.html&t=3

I don't know what you're reading but I see 112. Not 104.5... Please provide a link to your info. His offensive rating is 104, so I'm guessing you mixed them up. By the way, you want the offensive rating to be higher, not lower.

It is my understanding that if you are looking at advanced stats to compare the defense players on different teams, real plus minus, NOT defensive rating, is the way to go. And by that metric, McLemore >>> Martin. http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/2

And, looking at RPM as a whole, McLemore appears close to average among starters. (I know he's 26 on the list, but not everyone above him is a starter)

 

[The_Jamal]

It is my understanding that if you are looking at advanced stats to compare the defense players on different teams, real plus minus, NOT defensive rating, is the way to go. And by that metric, McLemore >>> Martin. http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/2

And, looking at RPM as a whole, McLemore appears close to average among starters. (I know he's 26 on the list, but not everyone above him is a starter)

Yep, it is. DRPM isn't perfect, but its one of the best metrics we have to evaluate defensive success.

Defensive Rating is worthless. As Slim pointed out, its purely a metric of how good your team defense is and if you get the benefit of playing behind a dominant rim protector.

 

[parker]

Now, you do raise a good point that Ben's numbers might not show the whole picture, given that the averages mask the inconsistency. Has anyone seen a site with some sort of measurement on a how a player's numbers vary? I'd be curious to see that, but haven't seen it anywhere. Without going through the game logs and coming up with our own metric (and as much as I enjoy these discussions, I'm not doing that ), it seems like the inconsistency/consistency discussion is too subjective to get very far.

Here's a discussion of consistency with stats. I couldn't open the full table, but it is clear that consistency doesn't necessarily mean good. Other consistency measures look at fantasy points and how consistently players got more than 20 fantasy points. As you can imagine, none of the King's sg are very consistent by this measure.

http://nyloncalculus.com/2014/11/21/2014-2015-player-consistency-arrived/#

 

[dude12]

Kevin Martin and the phrase "plays good defense" should never be used together.

 

[Livinthedream]

With all that being said, I am willing to stipulate that a spot shooter actually might be a better fit for our starting lineup than a kid who can do what McLemore does. I tend to feel like it is premature to call McLemore a bust or whatever, but I do think that it's fair to suggest that, when the core of your team is a ball-dominant big man and a ball-dominant wing, and you have a roleplayer who needs more touches to be effective, the solution isn't necessarily to give him more touches; the solution might be to replace him with a roleplayer who needs fewer touches.

That doesn't mean that the replacement is a better player, but it might mean he's a better fit.

This would all be true if our actual offense was a traditional one. But it's not. It's based on penetration and ball movement. It's why we've been desperate for a 'pass first' PG and it's why they are trying to play Cuz on the perimeter and open up driving lanes.

My understanding is that it takes over a year to fully implement the dribble drive. What Ben and the team needs is some stability in their organization so players aren't starting from scratch every year.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Which is funny, because the same could have been applied to Malone's offense... but let me stop beating that horse.

 

[upinsmoke]

I found this video comparing contract to production and it actually highlighted a few Kings notably Ben, Omri, Acy and even Ray McCallum from last year's squad.

 

[Bricklayer]

http://www.sactownroyalty.com/2015/...ndicates-a-reduction-in-ben-mclemores-minutes

 

[KingMilz]

From the article above

Karl said the coaching staff is trying to work with McLemore on speeding up his decision-making and shot selection. Over the summer McLemore told Sactown Royalty that he needed to be more consistent on both sides of the ball and to not get down on himself if he misses shots.

I would love to know why Ben did not play Summer League to work on these areas, it makes zero sense to me a guy who clearly needs work and who we badly need to come into the season sharp (SL would have helped that just like Euro's helped Belli). I don''t see where better to work on these things than the SL. A lot of 3rd year players like KCP played in the SL, it's not like we played in the playoffs and Ben needed a longer rest.


I would have thought coming into the most important season of your career you would want to be in tip top form from the first game of regular season.


Also this is the first season in forever where we have a glimmer of hope and I really hope that it can last and not get crushed right away.

 

[Livinthedream]

Wasn't it inevitable that Ben wouldn't play 2600 minutes this year? I don't think there is anything new in these quotes from Karl that we didn't know. Collison and Belli averaged more minutes per game than Rondo and Ben. Karl likes their style and pace. It doesnt speak to their overall basketball ability per se, but their style. Karl wanted to trade Cousins and is now trying to see if he can have Cousins shoot 3s because that's the style he prefers. I think what you hear from Karl in his recent quotes about Cuz, Ben and Rondo is an understanding that he's going to have to work with the pieces Vlade gave him.

Ben needs experience and a stable situation. Experience with real vets like Rondo and Belli. He'll get that this year.

 

[Blastoff]

Thinking out loud---With all of the comparisons to the 1998-99 team, is Ben this teams version of Tariq Abdul-Wahad? (Different player, same obvious hole in the Starting Lineup)

 

[Bricklayer]

Thinking out loud---With all of the comparisons to the 1998-99 team, is Ben this teams version of Tariq Abdul-Wahad? (Different player, same obvious hole in the Starting Lineup)

If we trade him for Nick Anderson I'm going to shoot myself.


Scratch that. I like myself too much to shoot myself. Maybe somebody else can shoot themselves.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

If we trade him for Nick Anderson I'm going to shoot myself.

Well, hell, as long as we're going back to the future, what if we trade McLemore for the ghost of Martell Webster, and then we flip Webster and Rondo for Oladipo?

 

[bajaden]

If we trade him for Nick Anderson I'm going to shoot myself.


Scratch that. I like myself too much to shoot myself. Maybe somebody else can shoot themselves.

How about I shoot you... Just kidding, just kidding. By the way, I think Nick Anderson is stuffed and mounted in the NBA Natural Museum.

 

[bajaden]

Since were on the subject of stats, and consistency, I think you have to dig a little deeper to get to the truth. Lets say you have two players that average 10 points a game. One player averages 10 pts one game, 8 pts the next, 12 pts the next and 9 pts the next, 11 pts the next, and so on to average out to around 10 pts a game. The other player averages 22 pts one game, 4 pts the next game, 8 pts the next, 6 pts the next, and so on. The latter is McLemore. That kind of production is a coaches nightmare because he doesn't know what to expect on a nightly basis. Coaches love consistent players.

That said, I'm not done with McLemore. He came to the game late, and then got pushed into a bigger role than he was ready for. At some point, everything should click into place. However, it better happen fairly soon or he'll be clicking into place somewhere else.