Kings defense: better than we think?

nbrans

nbrans

All-Star
#1
#1
After the Kings' impressive start defensively dissipated into some ghastly games, a new opinion emerged that the Kings are no more than a middling defensive team. The opposing field goal percentage, the usual metric for determining which team has the best defense, is 45.58%, which places the Kings at 19th in the league -- below average.

But then I happened to look at John Hollinger's stat for defensive efficiency, which measures how many points an opposing team scores per 100 possessions. This is a bit more of a comprehensive stat since it takes into account how many three pointers and free throws opposing teams are converting. It makes sense -- if an opponent gets two points from a free throw that should be taken into account in a defensive stat.

When it comes to defensive efficiency, it turns out that the Kings allow 100.1 points per 100 opposing possessions -- 8th in the league.

I think the reason for this is that the Kings play defense without committing many fouls. They commit an average of 22.2 fouls per game. Only Detroit (20.7), Houston (21.5), Lakers (21.8), Minnesota (21.7), NOK (21.1)and San Antonio (19.7) commit fewer fouls.

Even more importantly, the Kings allow opponents to shoot only 23.5 free throws a game. Only San Antonio (22.5) allows fewer.

The counterexample to this is the Jazz. The Jazz allow a opposing field goal percentage of 44.9%, good for 13th in the league. But they allow their opponents to get to the line a stunning 34 times a game -- 10.5 more times than the Kings. Predictably, they are 26th in defensive efficiency (fortunately for them they've been winning games with their incredible offense).

So could the secret to the Kings defense be that they play defense without fouling too much? It makes sense to me, since Ron Artest is one of the great defensive masters at playing suffocating defense without committing many fouls. He almost never lets someone get to the line. And maybe he's setting the the tone for an actually-pretty-good defense.
 
C

Cal-Kings

Bench
#2
#2
Interesting analysis.

It appears the Jazz are still the most physical team in the game on defense.

Wasn't Musselman saying that we actually need to foul more often? That we have allowed too many lay-ups in the past? So is this lack of fouling a good thing or a bad thing? Considering that only about, what, 75-80 percent of all free throws are made, we could be saving some points by fouling. Unless it's Nash or Dirk.

Also, I'm still concerned with our transition defense. Rewatching that Sonics game last night, I was amazed at how much they simply ran down the court on nearly every possession to take advantage of our weakness. That was a little scary.
 
sloter

sloter

Starter
#3
#3
Per 100 possessions is not that great either - offensive rebounds count as new possesions. So a team may miss , get a rebound and score and that would count as 2 possessions 1 basket...
 
Gtronic

Gtronic

Bench
#4
#4
Interesting..very interesting. The other night up by 7 on the clipps with a few mins left I knew he had the game...why? because of our D. last year the game would have been far from over
 
tyrant

tyrant

Starter
#5
#5
fouling is always a good thing when you're stopping a layup. that's what i would encourage. what makes me sick is sacramento giving up dunks and by the end of the game miller has 2 fouls. where this this info come from?
 
nbrans

nbrans

All-Star
#6
#6
sloter said:
Per 100 possessions is not that great either - offensive rebounds count as new possesions. So a team may miss , get a rebound and score and that would count as 2 possessions 1 basket...
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Well, in that case it also bodes well for the Kings since they are 10th in offensive rebounds allowed.
 
Bricklayer

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
#7
#7
Gtronic said:
Interesting..very interesting. The other night up by 7 on the clipps with a few mins left I knew he had the game...why? because of our D. last year the game would have been far from over
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I knew we had the game because the Clippers were putting up an amazingly bad shooting dispaly, and it wasn't our defense, unless we were playing a new "let them past to blow the layup" variety.

In any case, on topic -- the other thing would be the steals and opp TO, both of which have been falling off recently, but again which limit opposing shots attempts adn points per possession.

But its possible a simpler overall explanation might just be scheduling. We have played a lot of crap teams and a lot of crap teams strugglign to score at the point we played them. When we played non-crap teams with good offenses, those teams ran right through us. I still think the overall trend you have pointed out might continue -- we might rank better in "defensive efficiency" than in Opp FG%. But until we shut down somebody actually hard to shut down we mgiht not be very good at either actually
 
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tyrant

tyrant

Starter
#8
#8
kings are #11 in giving up ppg. and #2 in steals. pretty good in my book. i really dont like to rank defense by fg%. if a team takes 10 shots and make all of them they'll be 100%. but if sacramento takes 20 shots and make 11 they'll win the game. rebounding, steals, blocks, deflections will always change the end result of a game
 
C

Cal-Kings

Bench
#9
#9
In that Clipper game, our defense was spotty. We had awful moments - leaving Mobley wide open. And then we corrected it and put Salmons on Mobley and stopped him. Stopping Mobley in that 4th quarter turned out to be the critical defensive call.

We still don't play 48 minutes of defense. I can live with that as long as our offense is running well, and we can play spot defense when it counts.
 
C

Cal-Kings

Bench
#11
#11
tyrant said:
THIS salmon guy sounds like a stud on defense. i will enjoy tuning in tonight. local tv. YESSS. gotta love it
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LOL! He has his moments. I wouldn't call him Ron Artest yet, though. ;)

It doesn't take all that much to stop Mobley, just stay with him. As we know from experience.
 
Bricklayer

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
#12
#12
tyrant said:
THIS salmon guy sounds like a stud on defense. i will enjoy tuning in tonight. local tv. YESSS. gotta love it
Click to expand...
Not going for stud, but surprisingly solid and attentive on that end. Philly fans might have a right to be upset -- he was NOT a reliable defender in Philly, and would often appear flat out lazy on that end. But while he's nto normally a shutdown guy, after you get past Ron I think Salmons might be the most reliable (that word again) defender we've had this season. Stays with his guy, rarely gambles, has used his length effectively.
 
nbrans

nbrans

All-Star
#13
#13
Bricklayer said:
Not going for stud, but surprisingly solid and attentive on that end. Philly fans might have a right to be upset -- he was NOT a reliable defender in Philly, and would often appear flat out lazy on that end. But while he's nto normally a shutdown guy, after you get past Ron I think Salmons might be the most reliable (that word again) defender we've had this season. Stays with his guy, rarely gambles, has used his length effectively.
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Most games he's attentive, above-average, but not necessarily a stud etc. etc. Against the Clippers he was a stud. That was an awesome defensive performance against three different players, first Maggette, then Livingston, then Mobley -- a point guard, a shooting guard and a small forward. Maggette might have just had an off-night, but Livingston and Mobley were both playing very well until Salmons knocked them off their game.
 
C

Cal-Kings

Bench
#14
#14
I watched a lot of Salmons in Philly when he got on the floor which wasn't all that much. They play AI so many minutes.

He looked inconsistent. At times trying to play like AI.

That whole team though, after about half-way through the season last year, started to look out of it. They almost never played anything but half-hearted defense.

I wasn't that thrilled when we picked him up, and in the first few games, he reminded me too much of AI without the skills of AI.

Now, in the last few games, he appears to be picking up that this is a team game, and he's giving assists, passing the ball, playing much better.

I have to assume he's much happier here than in Philly and it's starting to show in his effort on the court.
 
B

BMiller52

All-Star
#15
#15
Bricklayer said:
Not going for stud, but surprisingly solid and attentive on that end. Philly fans might have a right to be upset -- he was NOT a reliable defender in Philly, and would often appear flat out lazy on that end. But while he's nto normally a shutdown guy, after you get past Ron I think Salmons might be the most reliable (that word again) defender we've had this season. Stays with his guy, rarely gambles, has used his length effectively.
Click to expand...

They should blame it on AI, he and Salmons hated eachother.
 
R

rumpled

G-League
#16
#16
Per 100 possessions sounds better than per game to me, I always thought points given up per game was a "bad" stat for ignoring the obvious fact that some teams just play fast (more possessions) and some teams deliberately slow it down.
 
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