[Game] Kings at Timberwolves, 4/5/2021, 4 PM Pacific 7PM Eastern

[ESP47]

Correct me if I'm we wrong, but this "all time worst" stat is referring to opponent PPG. I don't put too much stock into the "all time" or history aspect of it, simply because scoring is up so much around the league as a result of pace, rules, 3s taken etc. We're also easily averaging around the all time highs in scoring. The relative ranking for this season is what matters, and as we've seen in the example of Phoenix, you can be a bottom 5 team and still be really good if you're that much better offensively.

To be clear, I'm not arguing that we shouldn't need to get better defensively to win games. I'm saying that technically, it's too simplistic to say that the reason we're losing is because of some sort of historically bad defense (which is a point that many media members/talking heads keep simplisticallyrepeating)

I could be wrong but I thought they were going off of defensive rating and not PPG when they showed that the Kings were one of the all time worst. Here a a simple chart comparing teams from this year. Look at how many teams are all in the same vicinity and then its a big step from the Pelicans to the Blazers and then twice as big of a step from the Blazers to the Kings.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-highest-team-defensive-rating-2021

Compared that to last year where they were bad but at least normal bad.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-highest-team-defensive-rating-2020

I don't really worry about PPG too much because a lot of the time it's relative to pace. If you're playing faster and scoring easier, then you're using less of the clock so you're giving your opponents more opportunities to score. It's perfectly fine the way the Suns did it because their net rating was way up in the positive. It's not fine the way the Kings are doing it because their net rating is negative. The Nash Suns were never technically bottom 5 in defense, they were more mid pack when adjusted for pace and points. It only seemed like they were bottom 5 because their pace and offensive efficiency gave their opponents more opportunities to score, but it really didn't matter because Phoenix's offense had them covered.

The Blazers are a good example of that this year. 5th in offensive rating, 29th in defensive rating and 15th in net rating. They're 6th in the standings but they're lucky to be in 6th because their stats say they should be around 9th or so. They've just gotten lucky because they've won a lot of close games that could have gone either way. Without that luck, they'd be a fringe playoff team and their offense is 5th compared to our 11th place offense.

 

[Woot!]

Don't want to forget about his 3-ball, tho.

Kings are 3-14 from 3, by the way.

Not enough talent and horrible coaching.

Fox is great and should continue to grow. I also have high hopes for Hali.

Buddy and Holmes would probably be coming off the bench on a legit playoff squad. Barnes could probably start on a good team but dude is a 4th option.

You think he's more than a 5th option NOW?

FGA per 36 min:

Fox - 19.3
Hield - 14.8
Haliburton - 12.5
Holmes - 11.1
Barnes - 10.9

Bags - 15.7

In absolute terms (ignoring minutes played):

Fox - 18.7
Hield - 14.3
Barnes - 10.9
Haliburton - 10.5
Holmes - 9.4

Bags - 11.2

IOW, HB is a distant 3rd option at best (essentially tied w/Ty in absolute terms) and basically tied for 4th (last) w/Holmes among starters adjusting for minutes played.

 

[gunks]

You think he's more than a 5th option NOW?

FGA per 36 min:

Fox - 19.3
Hield - 14.8
Haliburton - 12.5
Holmes - 11.1
Barnes - 10.9

Bags - 15.7

In absolute terms (ignoring minutes played):

Fox - 18.7
Hield - 14.3
Barnes - 10.9
Haliburton - 10.5
Holmes - 9.4

Bags - 11.2

IOW, HB is a distant 3rd option at best (essentially tied w/Ty in absolute terms) and basically tied for 4th (last) w/Holmes among starters adjusting for minutes played.

Was too lazy to do the actual homework on it, so thanks! Numbers definitely match the eye test.

And we’ve seen what happens when you try to force HB to be a 1st/2nd option... he gets traded to the Kings for Justin Jackson!

 

[mac]

I could be wrong but I thought they were going off of defensive rating and not PPG when they showed that the Kings were one of the all time worst. Here a a simple chart comparing teams from this year. Look at how many teams are all in the same vicinity and then its a big step from the Pelicans to the Blazers and then twice as big of a step from the Blazers to the Kings.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-highest-team-defensive-rating-2021

Compared that to last year where they were bad but at least normal bad.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-highest-team-defensive-rating-2020

I don't really worry about PPG too much because a lot of the time it's relative to pace. If you're playing faster and scoring easier, then you're using less of the clock so you're giving your opponents more opportunities to score. It's perfectly fine the way the Suns did it because their net rating was way up in the positive. It's not fine the way the Kings are doing it because their net rating is negative. The Nash Suns were never technically bottom 5 in defense, they were more mid pack when adjusted for pace and points. It only seemed like they were bottom 5 because their pace and offensive efficiency gave their opponents more opportunities to score, but it really didn't matter because Phoenix's offense had them covered.

The Blazers are a good example of that this year. 5th in offensive rating, 29th in defensive rating and 15th in net rating. They're 6th in the standings but they're lucky to be in 6th because their stats say they should be around 9th or so. They've just gotten lucky because they've won a lot of close games that could have gone either way. Without that luck, they'd be a fringe playoff team and their offense is 5th compared to our 11th place offense.

Thanks - I double-checked and you're right, the talk is about defensive rating. Nonetheless, I think my point still stands given the number of 3s being taken - the league is also at an all time high in 3FGA and 3FG% - it quite naturally follows that points per 100 possessions will trend upwards, so being "historically bad" is really not the issue - being the worst in the league is more pertinent. You can think of other possible contributing factors like the number of fast break possessions given up, which are more indicative of the offense than the defense (side note, I swear this affects Buddy's def rtg and opp FG% because there are multiple times a game where someone turns the ball over, sometimes Buddy himself, and he's the only one back on a 3 on 1 fast break). Overall, the issue is relative performance which you alluded to.

Using def rtg, the Suns may not have been bottom 5 for most of their deep playoff runs, but they were 23rd in 09-10 when they made the WCF, and 26th in 08-09 where they won 46 games but were 2 games behind the 8th seed.

So if I could crystallize my points, this is what I'd like us to agree on:
1. It doesn't really matter that we are "historically bad" - comparison vs other seasons really doesn't tell you that much in and of itself
2. It matters that we are at the bottom of the league, and it would benefit us to improve on that end
3. That said, it doesn't necessarily mean the only solution is to become a top defensive team, as good defensive teams have sucked and below average defensive teams have found success. What's more important is balance, e.g. net rtg.

 

[mac]

I kinda predicted that fans will sooner or later start questioning whether or not Fox is a winning player.



I don't think we can blame Fox for our woes because this is the first real year where has even shown any type of #1 scoring ability. He was a late bloomer. Last year he had flashes, but he was never consistent like this year, nor did he ever take over games the same way. I think we need to give Fox a legitimate #2 star before judging him. We need players that can elevate the team. Just not seeing it from these guys.

I said it before, but I think Fox ends up more like a Kyrie than a Lillard.

In all fairness to me, I was questioning whether Fox was a winning player long before this season

But you saying he ends up more like a Kyrie than a Lillard sorta backs up my point/question. Not gonna win much as the #1 guy (only made the playoffs once on a pretty stacked BOS team) vs Dame who though hasn't found consistent deep playoff success at least gets there pretty consistently. But honestly, I don't think Fox is even at Kyrie's level.

 

[The_Jamal]

Well again, that mess will quickly spill onto his plate. He went out and made some very marginal win now moves so the grace period is over. And remember the cloud of Joe Dumars still hangs overhead. Fox is kind of turning into Mike Malone in some peoples eyes. He was the only thing keep the franchise afloat at that time and while he had his faults, much like Fox, it doesn't even take much effort to see if it you try. Fox has carried a very mediocre coach and it has literally worn him out in the process twice this season.

I was always willing to give McNair till the off-season to install his coach. He came in relatively late to the position and with covid going on, there was just very little chance ownership was going to sign on firing a coach 1 year into his new big extension.

But if it's still Walton the start of next year, that grace period is gone. McNair will be tying his ship to him. He's operated in a very similar fashion to Farhan with the Giant at the beginning of his tenure; operating on the fringes, making small, but noticeable improvements without giving up much value (Hali with 12th pick, Wright for 2nds, Davis for a 2nd, didn't commit to the big Bogi contract). Be interesting what happens when he makes a more all-in move to put his stamp on the team.

 

[macadocious]

Nah man, don't you know? He has sources that say we passed on NeSmith and a pick for Barnes. Gotta trust him.

If that’s true, then GREAT! Barnes is worth much more than Nesmith and the 17th pick.

 

[sactowndog]

Was too lazy to do the actual homework on it, so thanks! Numbers definitely match the eye test.

And we’ve seen what happens when you try to force HB to be a 1st/2nd option... he gets traded to the Kings for Justin Jackson!

We are starting to see what happens with Bogi on a good team. It’s taking some time for him to fit in but the last 5 games under Nate he has started and averaged 21.4 points per game and 5.4 assists.

Letting Bogi go for nothing is on McNair. We shall see how that is perceived.