KING DEMAR

They can’t sag off derozan. He will if they do he has the step on them to hit the midrange.
He doesn’t have a step on the defense if he is taking a step towards where the defense is rotating from. If anything, he’s giving himself less time to get his shot off and more time for the defensive rotation to contest.

Let’s put it this way…a wide open 3 is a more efficient shot than a wide open midrange shot in general. Even if he takes a step or two into the arc and is still somehow wide open, it’s still a worse shot. However, the example you suggest could actually result in a worse trade off than what I just mentioned…it could be the difference between a wide open 3 and a contested midrange shot (since DeRozan would give the defense a bit more time to rotate by dribbling into the arc or just being closer to the help defense in general if he’s spotting up from the midrange).

These are the types of tradeoffs opposing defenses will be considering when deciding how to slow down our team.
 

Gil really never recovered from the time Tyreke stole his lunch money.
I saw that earlier today and couldn’t listen any further. Many of us know what type of player and personality Arenas was back in the day. It’s no surprise to me that he’d be focused on meaningless BS like city size, among other things. That attitude is probably among the many reasons why his career never amounted to much in terms of team success and why he was doing things like carrying weapons into locker rooms. A narcissistic personality and just a knucklehead in general.
 
Gil really falling into his niche as a far far far far far worse Skip Bayless/Stephen A and just firing the worst takes imaginable is certainly something
He lost me when he didn’t call out Sheryl Swoopes for all her inaccurate info about Caitlin Clark. He clearly wasn’t educated enough to know she was factually wrong about everything she was saying and wasn’t interested in fact checking.

Why anybody would listen to a podcast that isn’t the least bit interested in being educated and accurate about the topics they are discussing is beyond me.
 

Warhawk

Give blood and save a life!
Staff member
Honestly, you do get teams like the Celtics this year, or the Warriors with KD, but the NBA has now seen 6 straight different champions. And I think any team that's like 55+wins-ish basically has the opportunity to go win a title; if they run into good luck with injuries and health with their own team.

Pacers as a perfect example this past year. Good team, but ran into a MIL squad no Dame/Giannis and a NYK squad no Randle/OG/Bojan, etc.
Also with who you end up playing in the PO. If we didn't have an injured (like you said) Fox and Sabonis two years ago (and if it still went to 7 and Steph wasn't in god-mode), I think we take the Warriors. And we would have likely beaten the Lakers (since they still haven't been able to beat Sabonis with AD).

This year we thumped the Warriors in the first play-in game but ran into that Pelicans team we just couldn't figure out last year.

Matchups can make or break a series, despite the team record.
 

Capt. Factorial

ceterum censeo delendum esse Argentum
Staff member
I read this article in The Ringer from a few years ago by Zack Kram that stated based on data and crunching numbers, a pick swap is worth no more than the 36th overall pick.

Link: Real Value of Pick Swap

I don’t really understand the process they took to determine that, and even after Google, I don’t know who Zack Kram is, but it supports my stance, so I’m quoting them.
The process is pretty simple. They used an estimate of draft value by position (Kevin Pelton's, though others are very similar) and then looked over every pick swap that has happened for the last umpteen years. If the pick swap happened, they note the change in draft value and then average all of those (putting in zeros for the value if the pick didn't swap).

They come up with the answer that the average pick swap is worth a #36 pick. What they don't point out is that this includes swaps that didn't happen - the average swap that happened was worth a #24 pick (my retconned math).

Of course, the "easier" way to do it is to do it mathematically by simulating every possible swap. If you do that, you get a slightly different answer - the average swap is worth a #30 pick, and the average swap that happens is worth a #21 pick. There are at least three possible explanations for the discrepancy between the "mathematical" answer and the real-life one. The first is that real life is a small sample size. The second - and this is important - is that the real-life data included pick swaps with protections on them (less valuable!), whereas the mathematical approach does not. (Also this makes the latter approach more appropriate for the Kings' unprotected swap.) A third possibility is that teams that offer swaps may be more likely to be picking late than average in the swap years (by design - the swap was traded for talent, right?)

So taking the above into account, I would estimate that the pick swap we gave San Antonio should have an expected value equal to a #30 pick in the draft, and if it conveys, it should have an expected value equal to a #21 pick. So, you know, on the order of losing an O-Max Prosper while dumping a Richaun contract if it conveys at all. That's not really a huge expected loss. The danger is that we give up the #1 pick for the #30 pick, but we can hope that's not likely.
 
Seeing this thread and being reminded Demar DeRozan CHOSE this is as mind blowing as ever every time I come here.
Malik Monk chose to stay on a discount.
Domas ran to sign his extension.
Lyles/HB/Len couldn't wait to reup with us.
DDR agreed to possibly spend the last 3 years of his career with us.

I think Monte and Brown leading this ship has just vastly changed the perception of Sacramento. I'd basically just never believe you if even 5 years if ago if you told me those caliber of players would be excited to resign here.
 
He doesn’t have a step on the defense if he is taking a step towards where the defense is rotating from. If anything, he’s giving himself less time to get his shot off and more time for the defensive rotation to contest.

Let’s put it this way…a wide open 3 is a more efficient shot than a wide open midrange shot in general. Even if he takes a step or two into the arc and is still somehow wide open, it’s still a worse shot. However, the example you suggest could actually result in a worse trade off than what I just mentioned…it could be the difference between a wide open 3 and a contested midrange shot (since DeRozan would give the defense a bit more time to rotate by dribbling into the arc or just being closer to the help defense in general if he’s spotting up from the midrange).

These are the types of tradeoffs opposing defenses will be considering when deciding how to slow down our team.
Except he gets fouled at an exorbitant rate and usually hits the the shot even when he doesn't. And he still draws the defense while being a willing and creative passer to an open man.

His lack of being a knockdown 3pt threat is way overblown for him, as it has been his whole career. It's been a knock on him since Toronto and he still manages to be effective despite the silly and stupid criticism.

He's not perfect but he checks all the boxes Barnes didn't while still being extremely effective where Barnes was. He's a better team defender, a similar 1 on 1 defender, and a better scorer, facilitator, and rebounder.

Whether or not the Kinga upgraded is not a question, and come opening night everyone who doubts that will look stupid. Barnes on opening night 2023 will be what you get more often than not from Demar, which is exactly what we needed all season long. Someone else besides Fox and Monk who can go and get a bucket or get to the line by putting pressure on the defense and converting at the line.

Against Milwaukie and Phoenix, those are 2 wins with Demar over Barnes simply because you can give the ball to Demar and he will either convert or get to the line and convert. Against Phoenix, Demar would have not only stopped the bleeding but would have been able to swing the tide.

The one thing people have not taken into account is even tho Demar isn't a "true" 3pt threat, you have to guard him out to the 3pt line. He's the modern day RIP Hamilton. From 18-22 ft he is butter. He can still hit a 3, but in that zone, once he is there, you are screwed. He will either make a shot, get fouled, or find a shooter or cutter.

Fox has become a deadly catch and shoot player. Monk is too. Keegan also. Keon for sure. Lyles indeed. Now Demar has options that he has never had. He's the playmaking version of Barnes that we all wished we had but now we are somehow upset we have because he shoots a slightly lower percentage from 3 than Barnes did.

Demar offers so much more versatility than Barnes, on top of being a better team defender and a similar POA defender, I'm absolutely shocked that Kings fans have anything negative to say about this move.

We aren't the national media, we have watched this team get stagnant when they couldn't get an open 3, and yet we are upset we now have a player who doesn't rely on that but we can give him the ball and he can go get a bucket or get fouled and convert his free throws? Yall ****ing wild man.
 
Except he gets fouled at an exorbitant rate and usually hits the the shot even when he doesn't. And he still draws the defense while being a willing and creative passer to an open man.

His lack of being a knockdown 3pt threat is way overblown for him, as it has been his whole career. It's been a knock on him since Toronto and he still manages to be effective despite the silly and stupid criticism.

He's not perfect but he checks all the boxes Barnes didn't while still being extremely effective where Barnes was. He's a better team defender, a similar 1 on 1 defender, and a better scorer, facilitator, and rebounder.

Whether or not the Kinga upgraded is not a question, and come opening night everyone who doubts that will look stupid. Barnes on opening night 2023 will be what you get more often than not from Demar, which is exactly what we needed all season long. Someone else besides Fox and Monk who can go and get a bucket or get to the line by putting pressure on the defense and converting at the line.

Against Milwaukie and Phoenix, those are 2 wins with Demar over Barnes simply because you can give the ball to Demar and he will either convert or get to the line and convert. Against Phoenix, Demar would have not only stopped the bleeding but would have been able to swing the tide.

The one thing people have not taken into account is even tho Demar isn't a "true" 3pt threat, you have to guard him out to the 3pt line. He's the modern day RIP Hamilton. From 18-22 ft he is butter. He can still hit a 3, but in that zone, once he is there, you are screwed. He will either make a shot, get fouled, or find a shooter or cutter.

Fox has become a deadly catch and shoot player. Monk is too. Keegan also. Keon for sure. Lyles indeed. Now Demar has options that he has never had. He's the playmaking version of Barnes that we all wished we had but now we are somehow upset we have because he shoots a slightly lower percentage from 3 than Barnes did.

Demar offers so much more versatility than Barnes, on top of being a better team defender and a similar POA defender, I'm absolutely shocked that Kings fans have anything negative to say about this move.

We aren't the national media, we have watched this team get stagnant when they couldn't get an open 3, and yet we are upset we now have a player who doesn't rely on that but we can give him the ball and he can go get a bucket or get fouled and convert his free throws? Yall ****ing wild man.
What lead to the stagnation on O last year was Fox stopped putting pressure on the rim. His rim attempts were way way down. Either injury or through his own choice, it's why last year felt like we were so reliant on 3s.

Enter DDR, whose one of the best in the game attacking the rim.
 
What lead to the stagnation on O last year was Fox stopped putting pressure on the rim. His rim attempts were way way down. Either injury or through his own choice, it's why last year felt like we were so reliant on 3s.

Enter DDR, whose one of the best in the game attacking the rim.
It's possible part of it was it took SO MUCH ENERGY AND EFFORT on Fox's part it became overwhelming. Amd having Demar on board to take that pressure off him will allow him to play more free and energetic in bursts to where he is back attacking at the proper times.

I just don't get the negativity behind this move. It is such a smart move all around that it's a no brainer. From the outside looking in, yeah, I can see how the National media has their negative Kings blinders on. But anybody who watched and still can't fathom the difference is pretty....I'm done.
 
It's possible part of it was it took SO MUCH ENERGY AND EFFORT on Fox's part it became overwhelming. Amd having Demar on board to take that pressure off him will allow him to play more free and energetic in bursts to where he is back attacking at the proper times.

I just don't get the negativity behind this move. It is such a smart move all around that it's a no brainer. From the outside looking in, yeah, I can see how the National media has their negative Kings blinders on. But anybody who watched and still can't fathom the difference is pretty....I'm done.
I don't think it's real negativity from Kings fans. Everyone's sees this as a massive talent upgrade for basically no cost. I think it's fair to have questions about how we incorporate another high USG on-ball player to our current core.

Now DDR is an incredibly smart player and a great passer, so I think it's absolutely capable of working. And we're the most unselfish team in basketball. But wouldn't be surprised to see some kinks to work out early.
 
Except he gets fouled at an exorbitant rate and usually hits the the shot even when he doesn't. And he still draws the defense while being a willing and creative passer to an open man.

His lack of being a knockdown 3pt threat is way overblown for him, as it has been his whole career. It's been a knock on him since Toronto and he still manages to be effective despite the silly and stupid criticism.

He's not perfect but he checks all the boxes Barnes didn't while still being extremely effective where Barnes was. He's a better team defender, a similar 1 on 1 defender, and a better scorer, facilitator, and rebounder.

Whether or not the Kinga upgraded is not a question, and come opening night everyone who doubts that will look stupid. Barnes on opening night 2023 will be what you get more often than not from Demar, which is exactly what we needed all season long. Someone else besides Fox and Monk who can go and get a bucket or get to the line by putting pressure on the defense and converting at the line.

Against Milwaukie and Phoenix, those are 2 wins with Demar over Barnes simply because you can give the ball to Demar and he will either convert or get to the line and convert. Against Phoenix, Demar would have not only stopped the bleeding but would have been able to swing the tide.

The one thing people have not taken into account is even tho Demar isn't a "true" 3pt threat, you have to guard him out to the 3pt line. He's the modern day RIP Hamilton. From 18-22 ft he is butter. He can still hit a 3, but in that zone, once he is there, you are screwed. He will either make a shot, get fouled, or find a shooter or cutter.

Fox has become a deadly catch and shoot player. Monk is too. Keegan also. Keon for sure. Lyles indeed. Now Demar has options that he has never had. He's the playmaking version of Barnes that we all wished we had but now we are somehow upset we have because he shoots a slightly lower percentage from 3 than Barnes did.

Demar offers so much more versatility than Barnes, on top of being a better team defender and a similar POA defender, I'm absolutely shocked that Kings fans have anything negative to say about this move.

We aren't the national media, we have watched this team get stagnant when they couldn't get an open 3, and yet we are upset we now have a player who doesn't rely on that but we can give him the ball and he can go get a bucket or get fouled and convert his free throws? Yall ****ing wild man.
So you actually haven’t disagreed with any of my points. It doesn’t appear that you have refuted that, in general, a wide open 3 is a better shot than a contested 2 and I don’t blame you as that would be an odd thing to refute.

I’ve said consistently on this forum that the trade is a talent upgrade and that I like the low risk swing by Monte. We’ll have to see if that talent upgrade can overcome the reduction in spacing to not just be an improvement on offense over last season but for it to improve enough to make us one of the best offensive teams in the league that can’t be throttled deep into the playoffs. We’ll need our offense to be top notch as it will be difficult to be a top defensive team when you’re playing DeRozan (who is probably at best a lateral move defensively from Barnes) and Sabonis 34+ min a game.
 
I don't think it's real negativity from Kings fans. Everyone's sees this as a massive talent upgrade for basically no cost. I think it's fair to have questions about how we incorporate another high USG on-ball player to our current core.

Now DDR is an incredibly smart player and a great passer, so I think it's absolutely capable of working. And we're the most unselfish team in basketball. But wouldn't be surprised to see some kinks to work out early.
Thank you. You seem to actually understand the point I’m making. :)
 
I don't think it's real negativity from Kings fans. Everyone's sees this as a massive talent upgrade for basically no cost. I think it's fair to have questions about how we incorporate another high USG on-ball player to our current core.

Now DDR is an incredibly smart player and a great passer, so I think it's absolutely capable of working. And we're the most unselfish team in basketball. But wouldn't be surprised to see some kinks to work out early.
You can’t cry about signing a massive free agent and then cry about his USG being a problem. You can’t have it both ways. Of kuzma and Ingram, which people lobbied for, only one is a good shooter. Nobody seemed to notice but if we got them people would start bringing it up. I do blame the media a bit but come on. Stop trying to be the warriors and be your own brand.
 
You can’t cry about signing a massive free agent and then cry about his USG being a problem. You can’t have it both ways. Of kuzma and Ingram, which people lobbied for, only one is a good shooter. Nobody seemed to notice but if we got them people would start bringing it up. I do blame the media a bit but come on. Stop trying to be the warriors and be your own brand.
I don't think it's crying about it, or saying it's a bad move. I've had this exact same problem with people who wanted to add a Kuz/Grant/LaVine... it's tough to see how you add them to what we did offensively last season from a USG hierarchy perspective.

Now DDR is a lot better than them, so you just take the huge talent win and figure it out. But I think there is going to be a period of "figuring it out"
 
You can’t cry about signing a massive free agent and then cry about his USG being a problem. You can’t have it both ways. Of kuzma and Ingram, which people lobbied for, only one is a good shooter. Nobody seemed to notice but if we got them people would start bringing it up. I do blame the media a bit but come on. Stop trying to be the warriors and be your own brand.
Well I definitely did not lobby for Kuzma and Ingram. Kuzma’s shooting, usage, inefficiency, and questionable defense made me queasy and Ingram’s overall talent level on the max deal he wants (while also having his injury concerns and questionable defense) seemed like a bad move as well.

If we were going to make a swing (meaning we’d be giving up 1st round pick(s) in the trade), I was wanting Markkanen or Grant. However, towards the end here, I was leaning towards making a lower risk move that would result in us keeping all of our assets (Murray, Ellis, Carter, and 1sts). Targeting a Grant Williams, DFS, etc. that would still give us an upgraded roster but allow us to look at making a big swing the following offseason with (hopefully) all of our 1sts unlocked with the 2025 1st going to ATL.

I didn’t even have DeRozan on my radar as a possibility and I’m sure I’m not in the minority. I like the combination of low risk swing (not giving up Murray, Ellis, Carter, or 1sts) while adding a star talent that might fit.

If the fit doesn’t work out or we don’t think we can reach the proper offensive ceiling to overcome a defense that leans on many minutes of DeRozan and Sabonis, McNair still has a lot of flexibility to pivot.
 
What lead to the stagnation on O last year was Fox stopped putting pressure on the rim. His rim attempts were way way down. Either injury or through his own choice, it's why last year felt like we were so reliant on 3s.

Enter DDR, whose one of the best in the game attacking the rim.
Probably happened naturally. Gets mauled on the way to the hoop more often than not, gets no calls, and either misses or results in a turnover of some sort. After a while of getting no calls, he probably drifted away from there to avoid an unnecessary injury unless of course he pulled up with his floater or had an open lane.
 
Well I definitely did not lobby for Kuzma and Ingram. Kuzma’s shooting, usage, inefficiency, and questionable defense made me queasy and Ingram’s overall talent level on the max deal he wants (while also having his injury concerns and questionable defense) seemed like a bad move as well.

If we were going to make a swing (meaning we’d be giving up 1st round pick(s) in the trade), I was wanting Markkanen or Grant. However, towards the end here, I was leaning towards making a lower risk move that would result in us keeping all of our assets (Murray, Ellis, Carter, and 1sts). Targeting a Grant Williams, DFS, etc. that would still give us an upgraded roster but allow us to look at making a big swing the following offseason with (hopefully) all of our 1sts unlocked with the 2025 1st going to ATL.

I didn’t even have DeRozan on my radar as a possibility and I’m sure I’m not in the minority. I like the combination of low risk swing (not giving up Murray, Ellis, Carter, or 1sts) while adding a star talent that might fit.

If the fit doesn’t work out or we don’t think we can reach the proper offensive ceiling to overcome a defense that leans on many minutes of DeRozan and Sabonis, McNair still has a lot of flexibility to pivot.
Yeah, I never had DDR on my radar either, but this is honestly about as good a result as we can hope for. He's not Lauri-level, but he's close and you can absolutely make an argument he's better than Ingram. But we didn't have to give up any future assets, nor commit a huge long-term deal to him. It's a good 2 year shot for us to make a push and let Keegan/Carter/Keon continue to develop and see if any of them truly pop as a star.

He's a very tradeable contract as well. So if for whatever reason, we do need to move off him, we won't get stuck like the Bulls currently are with LaVine.
 
Yeah, I never had DDR on my radar either, but this is honestly about as good a result as we can hope for. He's not Lauri-level, but he's close and you can absolutely make an argument he's better than Ingram. But we didn't have to give up any future assets, nor commit a huge long-term deal to him. It's a good 2 year shot for us to make a push and let Keegan/Carter/Keon continue to develop and see if any of them truly pop as a star.

He's a very tradeable contract as well. So if for whatever reason, we do need to move off him, we won't get stuck like the Bulls currently are with LaVine.
Yep. It would have been great if Keegan was ready to assume the mantle of "third star" last season, but he wasn't. He made some big leaps, particularly on the defensive end, but he wasn't ready to assume an unburdening of the offensive load from Fox, nor has he yet developed his offensive bag enough to give one confidence that he can be a consistent "go-to" scorer in the NBA. He showed flashes of that, which were super promising, but you can't hang your hat on it yet if you're the Kings front office.

Enter DeMar DeRozan. The Kings get a durable go-to scorer who cost very little to acquire, who is on a reasonable short-term deal, and who can help unburden Fox while acting as a talent bridge of sorts until Keegan develops further. Furthermore, it takes the pressure off of Keegan to be "that guy" right now, which will hopefully help him find his offensive rhythm again. The Kings would be using DeRozan like countless other playoff contenders have used crafty, aging veterans with deep bags and all the respect in the world.

Media members may scoff in their arrogance, but I guarantee you that opposing teams will look at the Kings differently next season. Now they've got two fourth-quarter killers who would love nothing more than to rip your heart out and eat it for dinner. Might there be some awkwardness to work out at first? Probably. But you don't take lightly a starting five of Fox/Ellis/DeRozan/Murray/Sabonis, with the unbridled gonzo chaos of Malik Monk waiting there on the bench. I mean, good luck with that.
 
Last edited:

Kingster

Hall of Famer
Then that is where we disagree.

I’m full on expecting the spacing to be worse with DeRozan in the lineup vs. Barnes. Teams can sag off DeRozan more than Barnes knowing…
  1. He’s not a good 3 pt shooter so if the defense can’t rotate quickly enough, it won’t be as bad of a result as having someone like Barnes take the shot
  2. If DeRozan passes up the open 3 and puts the ball on the ground, that gives the defense that much more time to rotate and cut him off. There’s a reason why teams don’t have 5 guys with DeRozan’s shooting ability out there at one time. It can be something defenses try to exploit to give them a slight edge.


Now just because the spacing will be worse it doesn’t mean we don’t have the talent to overcome that lack of spacing, more congested lanes, etc. and hit contested shots at a high enough clip (we certainly have our fair share of difficult shot makers). However, I think these questions remain unanswered for me…
  1. Can the talent upgrade overcome the worse floor spacing?
  2. And if it can overcome it (meaning we have a better offensive season vs. last year), can it overcome it enough to where it can be relied on deep into the playoffs?

I’m not convinced that the answer to those questions is what we all want to hear, but one thing is for sure…it’ll be really interesting to watch our offense this year. ;)
Well said. This puts a fine point on it. McNair and Brown obviously thought that the talent upgrade of DeRozan would outweigh the floor spacing downgrade he posed. Otherwise, they wouldn't have made the deal. They must have had discussions on this specific issue. So I wait with you to see how Brown tries to accentuate the positive and minimizes the negative with his new offensive scheme. I wasn't all that impressed with the offense last year, so I'm a little skeptical at this point. It's going to be interesting.