Unless the Nets tried to cripple us and made a mega offer the rest of the league is capped at MLE, which is what this year?
Keon Ellis
- Thread starter Tetsujin
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Kingz19
Hall of Famer
I think fans complaining are assuming that
1)Keon will be bitter about playing this season well below his proven value, and will hold it against the Kings throughout the season by not engaging in extension talk and as an unrestricted free agent
2)He’ll be so very good this coming season that even if he’s not bitter, the Kings won’t be able to compete for his services on the open unrestricted market. When he likely could’ve been extended for a deal similar to Trey’s last contract
But it’s hard to pass up such a good value team option especially with the flexibility in mind in not upping his salary for this season.
We’ll see how it plays out but I also think the kings have a couple prospects that can replace Keon as well. Let’s just hope they get a good feel for the situation fast if they have to trade him.
1)Keon will be bitter about playing this season well below his proven value, and will hold it against the Kings throughout the season by not engaging in extension talk and as an unrestricted free agent
2)He’ll be so very good this coming season that even if he’s not bitter, the Kings won’t be able to compete for his services on the open unrestricted market. When he likely could’ve been extended for a deal similar to Trey’s last contract
But it’s hard to pass up such a good value team option especially with the flexibility in mind in not upping his salary for this season.
We’ll see how it plays out but I also think the kings have a couple prospects that can replace Keon as well. Let’s just hope they get a good feel for the situation fast if they have to trade him.
Projected to be $14.1M
It's definitely not without risks but under this new CBA giving early raises also carries a lot of cap troubles which when you reach the aprons creates a bunch of extra trade and signing barriers. It doesn't help I imagine we had to make this decision before the start of free agency, so it cripples our ability to make our own MLE deals until we wait for him to get offers and come back to us. Beyond that whoever opens up cap space next year probably isn't going to prioritize Keon Ellis as their 25m+ spend. He's still going to likely be in the second or third tier signings after whatever stars are in play.
Kings have done a pretty good job managing their own contracts (including Domas and HB extensions even if they aren't always popular) so have to give them some trust here. I don't like it from the fan-risk standpoint but I still don't always understand the finer implications of the cap and what this could entail.
So we're probably safe extending him in the 18-20m range after we've made all our other moves? If that's how we want to play it. I thought it may have pushed above 15. We should be able to offer him more than he will get on open market next year either way.
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
Keon and Keegan have the same agent. You really think Scott and BJ Armstrong, a former agent himself, went into things blind and Leroy Jenkinsed themselves into doing something to pee them off whilst also needing to negotiate a big contract extension with them for Keegan?
Makaveli
Bench
He wasn’t even drafted he was g league for a year then two way. Keon wasn’t a lottery pick
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
That’s not really the point though. Scott wasn’t in the front office that brought Keon in. Keon’s not one of his darlings.
Makaveli
Bench
There is a reason for that. Outside of Sacramento Keon isn’t thought of. He isn’t even a top 200 player
Makaveli
Bench
Thing is if we do that now and can’t take back salary in trade or get free agents the same people are asking why
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
Maybe less Vivek to blame on this one and more how the NBA salary cap is structured.
I feel like there are occasionally mentions of Keon as a guy teams should trade for or target and I am sure any NBA analytics mind has him on their radar but there's still optics when a team opens up cap space signing an UDFA who was making < $3m per to a huge offer sheet. That has to play in the Kings favor.
iowamcnabb
Hall of Famer
I’m not going to freak out about it until I need to. I’d hope they can get an extension done and they have until Feb to do it. If not they need to trade him at the deadline and get value
His current contract is so low you'd think unless we were forcing a bad contract along with it we'd be able to move for multiple FRP because anyone with his Bird rights will have the inside track on keeping him.
I would love to get him locked in for 4 more years ASAP but we can't put that ahead of all the other moves this team needs to make.
wonder if we really want those guys (because I don't necessarily, especially Schröder) or if Perry is helping out the agent getting higher offers?
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
Schroder’s chances of staying in Detroit probably went back up the second the Malik Beasley news dropped
Going into free agency Hollinger had him as his #10 free agent overall, with a value higher than the MLE. Subsequently at least four of the guys that Hollinger had in from of Keon on his board have agreed on contracts with their original team, so he's have been the 6th-best free agent, at worst. Yes, every NBA analytics mind had him on their radar.
iowamcnabb
Hall of Famer
Who are some recent players that signed offer sheets as a restricted free agent?
Someone posted a graphic with all the teams with cap space (basically Brooklyn as the other team had $4m) and teams that have full MLE and it was maybe 10 of those. I have a hard time believing next year will be much different. We can match/exceed any MLE offer next year. That has to be the calculus here.
The idea might be to shop Keon this summer too. Certainly an easier sweetener if he's making nothing.
Its a serious gamble with one of our most valuable players. Perry playing with fire early, he has to come through and execute
Let's all imagine for a second if Monte pulled this same move. Think Matt George sucks up like this?
Padrino
All-Star
It's not just the risk of losing him, but the risk of having to pay him more later. Sure, those in the analytics world are already wise to Keon's value, but he's not top-of-mind for front offices around the NBA yet. The Kings were playing with found money. It's really rare to find undrafted free agents who can become rotation-level players in this league, and rarer still to find undrafted free agents with legitimate starter-quality talent and legitimate impact on both sides of the ball. If Keon's trend lines continue climbing in impact statistical models, more front offices are going to notice by next off-season, and what may have been a bargain contract for the Kings today becomes a more expensive contract for the Kings tomorrow.
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