Jason Thompson, rim protector?

[William Blake]

Inspired by JT's two blocks and the encouraging data on the Kings interior D I checked out the player tracking data on nba.com under the voice "defensive impact", trying to see if someone in particular should take credit.

The most relevant and interesting stat to look at is Opp FG% at rim, which stands for field goal percentage of an opposing player's or team's shots at the rim while being defended by a certain player. "Being defended" means that said defensive player is within five feet of the basket and within five feet of the player taking the shot. I think that it's a better stat than blocks per game to assess a big man's rim protection ability. A player can block a fair amount of shots while being a poor defender and on the other hand if he is mobile, long and understands team defense he can be a good anchor without stellar shotblocking numbers (e.g. Asik).
Don't get me wrong, I still think that generally great shotblockers are great defensive players, but there are always going to be outliers.

Note: last year Larry Sanders was at the very top of the league in this particular stat while David Lee was dead last.

In order to avoid "freakish" data I set two common sense filters:
-Opponent field goal attempts at rim per game > 3: in order to include only players who spend a decent amount of time protecting the rim
-Number of games > 10 to avoid numbers inflated or deflated by small sample size
Then I sorted the results from the best to the worst.

Here's what comes out:
http://stats.nba.com/playerTracking...IM*G*3&sortField=FGP_DEFEND_RIM&sortOrder=ASC

Considering that the league this year shoots 58.3% from less than 5 ft. the first thing that jumps out is that the only big guys who have a negative impact are notorious defensive stoppers such as Carlos Boozer and Kevin Love. Which is kind of the argument behind the whole stretch big craze of the past few years.

Now if you move back to the first page you will notice that Jason Thompson is the best ranked King* and is in good company too! Opponents convert only 46% of their attempts at the rim when JT is within 5 feet, a percentage that puts him into Howard/Drummond/Horford territory, which is not as good as Hibbert, Asik, Noah or Davis but still pretty damn good.

So, why in the hell are we still hoping to swap some assets for a defensive big?
Well, the thing is that while JT is quite good at defending the rim, he isn't around to contest shots very often.

Shots at rim contested per 36 minutes:
Acknowledged defensive anchors
Hibbert 11.1
Howard 10.7
Bogut 10.7
Noah 7.7

Unexpected good percentages
Monroe 7.6
Thompson 6.5
West 5.6

Interesting low minutes guys
Gobert 10.3
Udoh 9
Adams 7.4

My conclusion? I pretty much agree with what Slim said in the Houston grades (or game) thread: JT is a pretty good one on one defender and a lousy help one. Which is pretty much the case for West as well, while Monroe seems like a genuinely underrated defender, at least on this board. It should also be noted that JT fouls a lot, so he biases a bit this particular stat.
As for the low minutes guys: Pete please pick up the phone and call Milwaukee!

*Cousins sits at a very respectable 8 contested shots per game with a not so respectable 54.3% allowed.

 

[cuad]

It was at 40% a few days ago, probably before the Jazz/Suns games.

 

[Bricklayer]

Interesting use of the new wash of stats coming in.

Don't suppose there is any way I could bribe you to tease that out and provide a list of all the bigs the Kings have used this year along with shots contested/percentage allowed stats?

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

I would elaborate on what I said yesterday, and point out that Thompson is an above average man defender against interior bigs. He's somewhat less so against perimeter bigs. He did a solid job head-to-head against Nowitzki, but Nowitzki is:

1. Old, and
2. Not as perimeter-oriented as he was earlier in his career.

Against guys like Frye and Bargnani, who aren't trying to drive from outside, but are instead content to camp out around the three-point line, he's not nearly as effective. Definitely a below average help defender, too. His rotations are poor, and his defensive awareness leaves a lot to be desired; it's like you can tell that he's only paying attention to his guy.

That said, against most teams in the NBA, I like his man defense enough to be happy with his role on the team: for as much lip service as is paid to the "new, hybrid" power forward of the "future," there aren't a lot of teams in the league right now that have such bigs on their roster.

 

[William Blake]

Don't suppose there is any way I could bribe you to tease that out and provide a list of all the bigs the Kings have used this year along with shots contested/percentage allowed stats?

You officially owe me a beer
I also included guys like Outlaw and Williams since they both played some 4.

Name - Contested shots per 36 - Percentage Allowed
N'Diaye - 8.8 - 55.6%
Cousins - 7.9 - 54.3%
Hayes - 7.8 - 51.4%
Thompson - 6.5 - 46.4%
Acy - 5.7 - 60% (in Toronto)
Outlaw - 4.9 - 51.2 %
Patterson - 4.7 - 56.9%
Williams - 3.4 - 47.4% (in Minny was at 66.7% btw)

Gray has only 4 games on record.

Patterson definitely stands out, no effort and no effectiveness whatsoever. Williams has very nice numbers so far for a SF. Hayes was pretty good but I suspect his contesed shots are kind of inflated for a non shotblocker, he probably entered the floor mainly to cover good offensive post players who put up more shots than the average big man assingment of guys who play every game.

 

[Section 101]

You officially owe me a beer
I also included guys like Outlaw and Williams since they both played some 4.

Name - Contested shots per 36 - Percentage Allowed
N'Diaye - 8.8 - 55.6%
Cousins - 7.9 - 54.3%
Hayes - 7.8 - 51.4%
Thompson - 6.5 - 46.4%
Acy - 5.7 - 60% (in Toronto)
Outlaw - 4.9 - 51.2 %
Patterson - 4.7 - 56.9%
Williams - 3.4 - 47.4% (in Minny was at 66.7% btw)

Gray has only 4 games on record.

Patterson definitely stands out, no effort and no effectiveness whatsoever. Williams has very nice numbers so far for a SF. Hayes was pretty good but I suspect his contesed shots are kind of inflated for a non shotblocker, he probably entered the floor mainly to cover good offensive post players who put up more shots than the average big man assingment of guys who play every game.

Does that take into account fouls in the paint and FT's given up?

 

[William Blake]

Does that take into account fouls in the paint and FT's given up?

No. Definitely a problem with foul prone players.
Anyway it's also biased by other factors, one of the most obvious being perimeter defense.

 

[Bricklayer]

You officially owe me a beer
I also included guys like Outlaw and Williams since they both played some 4.

Name - Contested shots per 36 - Percentage Allowed
N'Diaye - 8.8 - 55.6%
Cousins - 7.9 - 54.3%
Hayes - 7.8 - 51.4%
Thompson - 6.5 - 46.4%
Acy - 5.7 - 60% (in Toronto)
Outlaw - 4.9 - 51.2 %
Patterson - 4.7 - 56.9%
Williams - 3.4 - 47.4% (in Minny was at 66.7% btw)

Gray has only 4 games on record.

Patterson definitely stands out, no effort and no effectiveness whatsoever. Williams has very nice numbers so far for a SF. Hayes was pretty good but I suspect his contesed shots are kind of inflated for a non shotblocker, he probably entered the floor mainly to cover good offensive post players who put up more shots than the average big man assingment of guys who play every game.

No Gray, no beer! That's my policy!

Thanks for the breakdown. Now, for one additional request. Those numbers are kind of in a vaccum. For comparison what does a Anthony Davis or David Lee look like?

 

[VF21]

For comparison what does a Anthony Davis or David Lee look like?

 

[Bricklayer]

 

[ppine]

I used statistics a lot in a career as a natural scientist. But these kind of discussions sometimes elude me. To boil it down, there are at least two ways to assess defensive prowess at the rim. The first is the percentage of the time a defensive player can stop the opponent. The second is harder to quantify. How often is the defensive player in the right position to make a play? JT is an example of a player maybe that does a good job at the rim, but gets caught out of position sometimes.

 

[ESP47]

Thompson's 1 on 1 defense has been good for a few years now. He's just quick/strong/lanky enough to be disruptive when being posted up. The problem is that there aren't many 1 on 1 post up power forwards and the ones who actually do that are so good at it that it doesn't matter if you're a good defender or not.

It reminds me of Chuck Hayes. Best 1 on 1 defender we've had on the Kings since I can remember. Only problem was that there were no big men to go 1 on 1 against him. How many times a game did we see anyone post Hayes up? Maybe once on average a game? And Hayes probably stopped them from scoring 75% of the time when they did. If the other team went 1 on 1 against Hayes on every possession, we'd win almost every game. Problem is that they hardly went 1 on 1 against him and normally went at one of our other weaker defenders. Now Hayes was a good help defender but he's limited by height and jumping ability. Once the opposing team started driving to the basket, Hayes was powerless to defend them because they would jump right over him. If you could take Hayes' brain and place it in Jason Thompson's body, we'd have the best defensive big man in the game.

Now Thompson is similar in a different kind of way. His strength is also 1 on 1 post defense, but he hardly gets to use it. His weakness is help defense, which should be in use on nearly every play on that side of the floor. He hardly ever gets to use his strength while his weakness is exploited most of the time. Our guards get broken down on nearly every play, so having that weak side defender who is good at help defense is crucial. Much more important than being a good man defender.

Our guards aren't making it any easier on our bigs with their bad defense but guards get broken down off the dribble all the time. Look at how many times IT gets into the paint against other teams? It doesn't matter if it's Chris Paul guarding him, he's still disruptive and it takes a Deandre Jordan type player to keep guys like him from having a field day in the paint.

 

[pshn80]

VF21 and Brick, thanks for the laugh above. It brightened my morning amongst mind-numbing stats.

 

[William Blake]

I used statistics a lot in a career as a natural scientist. But these kind of discussions sometimes elude me. To boil it down, there are at least two ways to assess defensive prowess at the rim. The first is the percentage of the time a defensive player can stop the opponent. The second is harder to quantify. How often is the defensive player in the right position to make a play?

The second is how many shots at the rim he contests per game, it can be influenced by his positioning, by his fouling, by the coaching etc.
Thing is, this is a simple matter of efficiency (percentage allowed) and volume (number of contested shots), of course it works in the opposite way of shooting since you want high volumes and low percentages. Even basic stats such as field goal attempts and field goal percentage can lead to multiple contrasting interpretations, what makes these stats useful is that they're tools to assess performance.

 

[Kingster]

Thompson's 1 on 1 defense has been good for a few years now. He's just quick/strong/lanky enough to be disruptive when being posted up. The problem is that there aren't many 1 on 1 post up power forwards and the ones who actually do that are so good at it that it doesn't matter if you're a good defender or not.

It reminds me of Chuck Hayes. Best 1 on 1 defender we've had on the Kings since I can remember. Only problem was that there were no big men to go 1 on 1 against him. How many times a game did we see anyone post Hayes up? Maybe once on average a game? And Hayes probably stopped them from scoring 75% of the time when they did. If the other team went 1 on 1 against Hayes on every possession, we'd win almost every game. Problem is that they hardly went 1 on 1 against him and normally went at one of our other weaker defenders. Now Hayes was a good help defender but he's limited by height and jumping ability. Once the opposing team started driving to the basket, Hayes was powerless to defend them because they would jump right over him. If you could take Hayes' brain and place it in Jason Thompson's body, we'd have the best defensive big man in the game.

Now Thompson is similar in a different kind of way. His strength is also 1 on 1 post defense, but he hardly gets to use it. His weakness is help defense, which should be in use on nearly every play on that side of the floor. He hardly ever gets to use his strength while his weakness is exploited most of the time. Our guards get broken down on nearly every play, so having that weak side defender who is good at help defense is crucial. Much more important than being a good man defender.

Very perceptive post. I don't this is discussed enough. This is due not just to the particular players and their strengths/weaknesses, but also to the fact that the league is trending to more of the stretch 4s and the 3 point line (there may be other reasons as well). To me, the conclusion to be drawn is that in evaluating players you might want to put more weight on the ability to make up ground to cover the paint from the weak side or to quickly move from the paint to the 3 point line to defend. The 3 point line "stretches" the floor, no doubt it. So it makes perfect sense that you'd want players on the defensive end with the speed and athleticism to "unstretch" the floor and guard at the perimeter, while at the same time being able to fall back in the paint when need be.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

And yet, there are really only five, maybe six teams that start what could reasonably be described as a "stretch" four (Phoenix, Minnesota, Dallas, New York, Miami... maybe Portland). There are a lot more face up power forwards than post up power forwards, but that's not really all that different from the historical trends. Contrary to popular opinion, there actually aren't a bunch of teams starting power forwards that are going to take you out past eighteen feet on a regular basis.

 

[Kingster]

And yet, there are really only five, maybe six teams that start what could reasonably be described as a "stretch" four (Phoenix, Minnesota, Dallas, New York, Miami... maybe Portland). There are a lot more face up power forwards than post up power forwards, but that's not really all that different from the historical trends. Contrary to popular opinion, there actually aren't a bunch of teams starting power forwards that are going to take you out past eighteen feet on a regular basis.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on...ba-the-balance-between-stretching-and-defense

Not how the author is defining it. Gay can be played at the 4: ipso fact he's a stretch 4. You can add the Hawks onto your list with Millsap. There are probably others as well.

 

[bajaden]

Not sure what label you'd put on Anthony Davis, but he embodies all the attributes you mentioned. He can guard on the perimeter, but is still quick enough to get back to the basket to contest shots. What separates him from most so called stretch fours, is his size. Of course there aren't many Anthony Davis laying around.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on...ba-the-balance-between-stretching-and-defense

Not how the author is defining it. Gay can be played at the 4: ipso fact he's a stretch 4. You can add the Hawks onto your list with Millsap. There are probably others as well.

The author's definition is wrong. And Milsap is not a stretch PF. He's a face-up PF; they are not synonymous terms.