It's Official, We Are Cursed..

[sterö]

It was the same story last year. All of us were pissed because of falling to #4. Luckily we didn´t end up with pick #1 taking Mr. Injury Blake Griffin oder #2 Thabeet. So I trust in Petrie this year as well.

 

[Warhawk]

Probability showed that we were most likely to end up with the #5 pick. That's what we got. How is that cursed?

Last year, we get the #4 pick and end up with the best player in the draft. Perhaps, he is the best player to come into the league in years. How is that cursed?

And last year we had the highest chance of actually getting #4 (35.7% vs. 25% for the #1 pick). Actually the odds have played out exactly as they should for the Kings over the past 2 years. The problem isn't that we are getting screwed, it is that the odds are established the way they are based on the system used and ping-pong ball allocation.

 

[Circa_1985_Fan]

People said the same thing last year. I don't think we're cursed. I think Petrie will find something of value...

The curse ended IMHO the day Tyreke Evans secured the 20/5/5 and it was proven again when he got ROY. Getting the #5 pick means we'll get a very talented player...and we're still heading in the right direction.

GO KINGS!!!

Yup, I'm with you...like I said earlier, this offseason is Geoff's legacy, he's trying to build something lasting and of championship calibur again, he hasn't had this many tools to work with in a LONG time...great young nucleus, $$$$$$, still a top 5 pick...c'mon, let's see what the hell he can do before we take the 'poor me' attitude. What do you think the Celtics fans were thinking 3 years ago when they had the worst record and got screwed in the lottery like we did? Did Danny Ainge sit around and sulk...HELL NO he didnt, he changed the dynamics of the franchise in ONE draft day, and the rest is Championship history! Geoff has gotten us REAL close to the 'promised land', and after that team got old and injured, it takes awhile to rebuild something like that...but it starts with hope and talent, and inginuity(and about $22 million, too)and we HAVE all that...let's re-live today's feelings after the draft and see what we have then.

 

[sterö]

Look at the T-wolves-boards...they are complaining as well

 

[Circa_1985_Fan]

Look at the T-wolves-boards...they are complaining as well

I wonder what they're saying on the Nets boards...oh wait, do they even have one?? Anyway, you get my point...they got 'jobbed' too.

edit: actually just found a Nets forum board, they had a whole 28 posts about the lottery, and they werent that bad, no one seemed too pissed.

 

[Kings Faithful]

And last year we had the highest chance of actually getting #4 (35.7% vs. 25% for the #1 pick). Actually the odds have played out exactly as they should for the Kings over the past 2 years. The problem isn't that we are getting screwed, it is that the odds are established the way they are based on the system used and ping-pong ball allocation.

Which is why the lottery is bull.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

And last year we had the highest chance of actually getting #4 (35.7% vs. 25% for the #1 pick). Actually the odds have played out exactly as they should for the Kings over the past 2 years. The problem isn't that we are getting screwed, it is that the odds are established the way they are based on the system used and ping-pong ball allocation.

There's a difference between "most probable outcome" and "expected value". Although our most probable outcome this year was #5, we had a 70% chance of a top-4 pick. In fact, our expected value was pick #3.4, so we did do worse than expected. Last year our expected value was pick #2.6, again better (by about the same amount) than what we actually got. Run the lottery 100 times and our average outcome will be better than what we actually got. "Screwed" is probably a matter of definition, but we have definitely been unlucky the past two years.

 

[Bricklayer]

Which is why the lottery is bull.

People can't have it both ways. The lottery is there to try to prevent tanking. Then people complain that teams still tank too much and that the odds should be made even worse for the worse teams. Then their favorite team slips in the lottery, and now they complain that the odds should be made better for the worse teams. There is no way to win it. Somebody is always going to complain.

 

[Gary]

Tons of talent at 5, don't get too discouraged. Anyways 5 isn't very unlucky, that would have been 6th.

Wouldn't have made a difference if we got 6th, or 10th for that matter.. The talent past #5 up until about #13 is all the same anyway.

 

[sc3252]

Wouldn't have made a difference if we got 6th, or 10th for that matter.. The talent past #5 up until about #13 is all the same anyway.

If it is all the same, then why are Golden State Warriors fans so bummed they didn't get 5th(Johnson)?

 

[Gliesian]

The chances of us getting the 1-4 pick is a lot higher than 5-6, about 2.3 to 1. Last year the chances of us getting 1-3 over 4 is 1.8 to 1. If we look at getting 1-3 and 1-4 as being lucky, we have a 33% chance of being unlucky. So, it's plenty believable.... but not likely.

 

[Warhawk]

There's a difference between "most probable outcome" and "expected value". Although our most probable outcome this year was #5, we had a 70% chance of a top-4 pick. In fact, our expected value was pick #3.4, so we did do worse than expected. Last year our expected value was pick #2.6, again better (by about the same amount) than what we actually got. Run the lottery 100 times and our average outcome will be better than what we actually got. "Screwed" is probably a matter of definition, but we have definitely been unlucky the past two years.

I understand that, but if you look at the percentages of each draft position, we have landed in the position that has the highest percentage. I tend to look at the most probable outcome in cases like this and hope that we move up instead of expecting a higher pick and being bummed out that it didn't happen.

 

[kupman]

I understand that, but if you look at the percentages of each draft position, we have landed in the position that has the highest percentage. I tend to look at the most probable outcome in cases like this and hope that we move up instead of expecting a higher pick and being bummed out that it didn't happen.

That's pretty much the way I view it. It is like before a die is thrown on a table someone says "there is a 22% chance with this "uneven" die that it wil roll a "5". No other number has odds that high. Now, place your bets.

It is pretty easy to pick which number you will bet on.


We are not cursed. It's just that we are not "lucky," either.

btw, I lost zero sleep on this last night.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

That's pretty much the way I view it. It is like before a die is thrown on a table someone says "there is a 22% chance with this "uneven" die that it wil roll a "5". No other number has odds that high. Now, place your bets.

It is pretty easy to pick which number you will bet on.

Ah yes, but in the game that we are considering, rolling a 1-4 is a "win" and rolling a 5-6 is a "loss". Do you bet on a win, or a loss?

 

[Rookie]

I have a suggestion..if we ever want a good lottery pick.

Sell $1 ticket to Kings fans and do a drawing. Whoever win will go play the lottery for the Kings.

I mean if the guy is lucky enough to win that..he should do well in the lottery.

The money can go to charity and a Kings fan get 15 minutes of fame.

The only way to fight a cursed is to find people lucky enough to offset it.

 

[VF21]

The only REAL way to fight a curse is to understand that it isn't a curse. And it isn't a bad thing to have the #5 pick, anymore than it was a bad thing last year to have the #4 pick. If you want to point fingers, point at the Maloofs for sending #13 to represent the Kings. Hello??????? If there is such a thing as a curse, you don't want to help it with that kind of mojo.

 

[kennadog]

I saw Evans drop his head to the table, when the Kings got #5. I felt as bad for him as I did for Webb last year. Yet it still worked out. So I'm just moving from one hope (draft lottery) to another (draft day).