How different will the 2015-16 Kings roster be?

[206Fan]

I'm a little surprised so many people are open to trading Ben. I would get rid of Nik over Ben in a heartbeat in similar circumstances.

I think Ben is a career 3&D player, but there's just so many of those out there right now.. All Ben is going to do for us is shoot open 3s. There are about 1000 other guys who can do that for our team... SG is the most replaceable position in the NBA considering how weak it is right now. Ben is the protocol SG who's inconsistent. If he's not having a good shooting night, he's not contributing anywhere else.

Nik on the other hand is more versatile. He's not the defender Ben is, but let's be honest...Ben is the one whos give up a lot of career nights..But he is already the better offensive player. He can shoot 3s and create offense. He's aggressive. He's not passive like Ben. His skill sets are wider and he's not the typical protocol SG. I think he has a better chance of reaching his potential too. He's already more impressive than Ben the same time this year.

 

[Padrino]

I agree mostly. However, it would be slightly more tolerable if we didn't shoot ourselves in the foot at PF on top of it while killing our cap flexibility, among a few other things. I can stomach having two guys developing at one position, SG, if we had done a better job getting a defensive 4, a backup center, a higher quality backup point and something resembling a 3pt threat off the bench..

Ben and Nik's inexperience/lack of production is magnified because it's on top of the gaping holes throughout this roster. Yes, a lack of a 3pt threat and shaky defense hurts us at the 2, but DC shooting 37% from 3 doesn't help that all that much either, with Rudy also shooting 35% from 3. Then we look at our bench and there again there's a serious lack of 3pt threats. Ray's at 29%, Omri's at 35% and DWill's at 33%. So we've really done a phenomenal job at building a roster which can't spread the floor. We've got a PF in JT who's better as a 3rd big and while he's a good 1v1 defender, isn't that good of a help defender and doesn't help spacing out there. Then we get to a real weakness I've been talking about since Aug which is no backup center. Despite Ben and Nik at SG, our starters have been able to play damn well as a unit at times, we just get slaughtered when Cuz hits the bench as we have no rim protection. We also don't have a single guard on this roster who can penetrate, break down his man and create. Maybe more see the value in that now that Reke is gone, it's incredibly valuable.

Point being, drafting two rookie SGs back to back isn't an issue which operates in a vacuum. If we had built a better and more rounded roster, we could hide their lack of production a fair amount more while allowing them to develop. But since we didn't and we have weaknesses all over the place, the SG issue is magnified. You need a well balanced roster if you're going to develop two young players and we point blank have failed at that.

And yes, that's a fireable offense, through and through, before even getting to the Malone fiasco and dumping the season in the garbage. So, fire PDA. Clear out anyone who was involved in building this roster. Only two leftovers from the Maloof era are Cuz and JT, so this is the creation of this FO.

i was focusing specifically on the draft, but you are correct; there have certainly been a number of other worthy blunders of note to consider in the construction of this roster. among them, overpaying for carl landry was a mistake, making the decision to waive robin lopez on the back end of the tyreke evans sign-and-trade was a mistake, and letting isaiah thomas run amok, seemingly in an effort to boost his trade value, only to sign-and-trade him in the offseason for peanuts, was also a mistake. i was never IT's biggest supporter among kings fans, but his current contract is going to be an absolute steal once the salary cap spikes (how does a so-called "capologist" like pete d'alessandro not see that?!). if the front office didn't want to keep IT (and i never blamed them for deciding to jettison his napolean complex), then they either needed to push much harder for a trade before last season's deadline, or they needed to re-sign him with intent to trade him later, when other teams became aware of how valuable his production per dollar was going to be under increasingly favorable cap conditions...

the thing is, these mistakes aren't colored by chants of "hindsight is 20/20." the above moves were all lambasted here at kf.com in the moment of their execution. there was an extremely vocal contingent of fans who were upset at the landry signing. many of us were raising WTF flags after the waiving of robin lopez, a true backup center who would have been tremendously useful in spelling the foul-prone demarcus cousins. and no matter where you stood in the great isaiah thomas debate of 2013-2014, there is no denying the value of his contract in relation to the level of his production. he was an asset that was mismanaged, much like the assets of two straight lottery picks were mismanaged. this kinda sh** just kills a small market franchise in search of relevance for the first time in a decade...

yet, despite all of that, michael malone somehow had this collection of mismatched parts unified, he had them bought in, he had them defensively-motivated, and he had them playing winning basketball!!!... before the front office inexplicably fired him without a coherent plan for his replacement. then it was back to the defensively-inept losing basketball that kings fans are so accustomed to. yeah, i'd say that there's more than enough here to constitute a "firable offense." chris mullin is out, though it should be noted that his departure was entirely voluntary. it remains to be seen if vivek will go through with the canning of PDA. i'd like to think he will, but even if PDA is headed for the door, i have no idea what going back to square one in the front office will entail; one hopes it's not another doomed scenario in which a strong-willed head coach was hired before a gm whom he doesn't see eye-to-eye with...

 

[ForlornKing]

its all so true

 

[Capt. Factorial]

i was never IT's biggest supporter among kings fans, but his current contract is going to be an absolute steal once the salary cap spikes (how does a so-called "capologist" like pete d'alessandro not see that?!).

That might be a bit over the top. To the extent that IT's contract is going to be a steal, it will be so for two years only, following two years of not-so-much. During those two years of not-so-much, it would also have been a bit of a hamstring - if we brought him back, he would have been our starting PG for at least two more years, with really no way to get around that (and lots of ways for our opponents to get around his poor defense).

Keep in mind that even though Phoenix burned one of the two years of "not-so-much", they sure didn't let those two future years of "steal" hold them back as they pushed him straight out the door at the trade deadline. If Phoenix can't swallow keeping that "steal" contract around for one more year until it pays off, why were we supposed to swallow two years of it?

 

[VF21]

That might be a bit over the top. To the extent that IT's contract is going to be a steal, it will be so for two years only, following two years of not-so-much. During those two years of not-so-much, it would also have been a bit of a hamstring - if we brought him back, he would have been our starting PG for at least two more years, with really no way to get around that (and lots of ways for our opponents to get around his poor defense).

Keep in mind that even though Phoenix burned one of the two years of "not-so-much", they sure didn't let those two future years of "steal" hold them back as they pushed him straight out the door at the trade deadline. If Phoenix can't swallow keeping that "steal" contract around for one more year until it pays off, why were we supposed to swallow two years of it?

And it's only a steal if he's actually on the court and performing at an acceptable level - and I'm not sure of either.

 

[sdballer]

That might be a bit over the top. To the extent that IT's contract is going to be a steal, it will be so for two years only, following two years of not-so-much. During those two years of not-so-much, it would also have been a bit of a hamstring - if we brought him back, he would have been our starting PG for at least two more years, with really no way to get around that (and lots of ways for our opponents to get around his poor defense).

Keep in mind that even though Phoenix burned one of the two years of "not-so-much", they sure didn't let those two future years of "steal" hold them back as they pushed him straight out the door at the trade deadline. If Phoenix can't swallow keeping that "steal" contract around for one more year until it pays off, why were we supposed to swallow two years of it?

True but the suns got a first round pick out of him. Much rather have that.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

True but the suns got a first round pick out of him. Much rather have that.

I'll grant that. Though keep in mind that it's the Cavs' pick and right now it's the #23 pick this year, and Cleveland has a pretty cushy schedule down the road with only two tough games left. It might be a #26/#27 pick once all is said and done with the Cavs mopping up the East and a glut of teams a few games ahead of them beating each other up in the West. It's in that range where you might be able to buy a pick, and with a slightly more than $3M cap on cash transactions, that would be cheaper than paying off IT's salary for the first half of the year. But hey, I'd like that pick too.

 

[Padrino]

That might be a bit over the top. To the extent that IT's contract is going to be a steal, it will be so for two years only, following two years of not-so-much. During those two years of not-so-much, it would also have been a bit of a hamstring - if we brought him back, he would have been our starting PG for at least two more years, with really no way to get around that (and lots of ways for our opponents to get around his poor defense).

Keep in mind that even though Phoenix burned one of the two years of "not-so-much", they sure didn't let those two future years of "steal" hold them back as they pushed him straight out the door at the trade deadline. If Phoenix can't swallow keeping that "steal" contract around for one more year until it pays off, why were we supposed to swallow two years of it?

well, i think phoenix represented a bit of unique situation. they crowded their PG rotation with three competing egos and were forced by circumstance to blow it up. i think that reflects less on thomas and more on their imbalanced approach to team-building. regardless, my point wasn't so much that thomas' current contract is flexible (though i believe it is), but more that thomas was a useful asset that was mismanaged by the front office. if you forego the unnecessary carl landry signing, you can afford to re-sign thomas or hold onto robin lopez. hell, with a bit of creativity, the kings may have been able to re-sign thomas and also sign darren collison to be the nominal starter. or they could have re-signed thomas and drafted elfrid payton to help compensate for thomas' defensive weaknesses instead of drafting a second straight SG. anything but bleeding talent without receiving more substantial compensation. as sdballer points out:

True but the suns got a first round pick out of him. Much rather have that.

at the very least, the kings could have shipped thomas out for something more than a trade exception. vivek has constantly touted his front office's ability to see "x moves ahead," and it strikes me as a massive overstatement, because i see very little foresight in the construction of this roster. the strategy has seemed to be to ship out every single player who was a maloof-era acquisition except demarcus cousins, no matter the fit or impact on future acquisitions...

 

[notoriousBEN3]

This is not fantasy basketball. We have some talented players who have begun to develop chemistry together. Our team is better than the results indicated by this season, which has fallen apart due to injuries and the brilliant idea of firing Malone after a month.

If everyone is healthy next year, they can build on those results. Gay + Cousins is as a solid top 2, even in the stacked West. Collison is a solid role player. I think these are the guys you roll with - they know each other, came to play together, and have some history (albeit short). You build on that by looking for key pieces to help step up, and you might consider a big trade if it presents itself, but you don't actively blow up the team every year - that's a big part of the dysfunction we're experiencing now. The key here is more stability, not less.

Ya i would have to agree. This squad started out the season very strong, with one of the better starting 5's in the league. We don't necessarily need a complete roster overhaul, IMO. For me, i think about a team like Portland. 2012-2013, they had a real ugly record on the season. But they got the right complimentary pieces and built chemistry and the next season, with very few roster changes, they blew up, and are now a major force in the West.

People act like our roster is so devout of talent, but it's more than just talent, it's about chemistry and SHOWING UP. When playoff chances slid away, half of the roster stopped giving the full effort. I think we now have a coach they will play hard under, and a coach that will really figure out how to best use everybody. I'm not really going to let his record thus far dictate how well he can do with the same squad next season.

Bottom line is that i think we have more talent than people give us credit for, but we have some holes in the roster. If we can find some guys to fill those holes (defense, 3 pt shooting), then i think we can be a playoff team next season. Obviously we all want a contending team, but one step at a time.

 

[hrdboild]

Ben and Nik's inexperience/lack of production is magnified because it's on top of the gaping holes throughout this roster. Yes, a lack of a 3pt threat and shaky defense hurts us at the 2, but DC shooting 37% from 3 doesn't help that all that much either, with Rudy also shooting 35% from 3. Then we look at our bench and there again there's a serious lack of 3pt threats. Ray's at 29%, Omri's at 35% and DWill's at 33%. So we've really done a phenomenal job at building a roster which can't spread the floor. We've got a PF in JT who's better as a 3rd big and while he's a good 1v1 defender, isn't that good of a help defender and doesn't help spacing out there. Then we get to a real weakness I've been talking about since Aug which is no backup center. Despite Ben and Nik at SG, our starters have been able to play damn well as a unit at times, we just get slaughtered when Cuz hits the bench as we have no rim protection. We also don't have a single guard on this roster who can penetrate, break down his man and create. Maybe more see the value in that now that Reke is gone, it's incredibly valuable.

Point being, drafting two rookie SGs back to back isn't an issue which operates in a vacuum. If we had built a better and more rounded roster, we could hide their lack of production a fair amount more while allowing them to develop. But since we didn't and we have weaknesses all over the place, the SG issue is magnified. You need a well balanced roster if you're going to develop two young players and we point blank have failed at that.

And yes, that's a fireable offense, through and through, before even getting to the Malone fiasco and dumping the season in the garbage. So, fire PDA. Clear out anyone who was involved in building this roster. Only two leftovers from the Maloof era are Cuz and JT, so this is the creation of this FO.

37% from Collison is not a problem at all, its top 10 among starting PGs [link] and some of the guys above him in that category are not better players overall. Other than Steph Curry, Kyrie Irving, Mike Conley, Chris Paul, and possibly Brandon Knight, we're not going to get better at 3pt shooting from the PG position without dramatically downgrading in some other category. Four of those guys are All-NBA quality guards that are not realistic targets for us.

Also, Ben and Nik project to be very good shooters in the future. Ben was elite in November and December (as in top 10 players at any position in that category). That's 30 games out of 82, but he's also 22 and should be improving. Nik is shooting 46% from three since the All Star break. Again that's only 16 games so far, but his college shooting numbers are elite so it's not like this comes out of nowhere.

Rudy's 35% is below average for a SF but he's such a good scorer overall, I don't see that as a significant problem. It does put a little more pressure on us to find a backup wing who's a shooting specialist but you can make an argument that we already have that player if Stauskas develops as expected.

While I do agree with you that trying to develop two young SGs at the same time on a roster that relies on that position almost exclusively for it's three point shooting was poor planning, that's also a problem which probably goes away on it's own in time. We've lived through two rough seasons of growing pains and we're going to either reap the rewards of that development time soon, or move one of them and find a veteran who can shoot. Personally, I'd hang on to both of them unless I've got a can't miss trade for a defensive PF in my sights and need an extra asset to make it happen.

 

[lawlman91]

I don't agree with this. Talent > Chemistry. If it weren't we could continue to add vanilla topping to the vanilla ice cream to the white cake with the one cherry on top. Yuck, I hate that. I hope this FO is a little more imaginative than that.

I don't know whether or not I agree on this, since I'll need to look deep into it in order to formulate a well-backed opinion, but one thing is for sure: don't underestimate or forget about chemistry. We all know what happened when they fired Malone. That was chemistry 101.

 

[kingsboi]

well for one...the SG position should be wide open whether that's for Ben or Nik duking it out or going out and getting one that will produce nightly. Having Collison and Rudy healthy would be another good start. I don't see a drastic roster change to be honest...I am curious to see what the Kings do with their draft pick though and whether that player will be shipped out or be part of the team moving forward.

 

[IfAt1st]

Anyone know the lingering nature of Collison's injury, and what his career health has been?

Is it likely he can play over 70 games next year?
Because RayMac & Miller can't likely hold down the fort for long against playoff-calibre competition.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Anyone know the lingering nature of Collison's injury, and what his career health has been?

He strained a muscle (hip flexor). Muscle strains almost always heal 100% and are usually not a major concern for reinjury.

 

[hrdboild]

Anyone know the lingering nature of Collison's injury, and what his career health has been?

Is it likely he can play over 70 games next year?
Because RayMac & Miller can't likely hold down the fort for long against playoff-calibre competition.

I don't think it's a big concern. Hes never missed more than 6 games in a season (before this one) and his injury isn't to a delicate area like a joint which is prone to re injury.

Here's his games played for his career:
2009/2010 76 out of 82
2010/2011 79 out of 82
2011/2012 60 out of 66
2012/2013 81 out of 82
2013/2014 80 out of 82
2014/2015 45 out of 82

 

[gunks]

Ray Mac, Ben Mac, Nik, Wiliams, Landry, Casspi, JT (I'd keep him as a bencher.. still hoping for that long awaited PF upgrade in the starting 5)...

I want to see at least three of those guys shipped out, and the rest have their roles reduced to something more fitting.

We definitely need to trade one of Ben or Nik. Drafting back to back SGs is beyond stupid and redundant. You either develop both and hurt the team, or stick a vet in there and one gets no minutes.... biggest reason why we should have gone Payton (thanks Vivek).

We need one more big, at least one more guard to compete for the playoffs, but way more than that to make it a lock.

We are more than one off-season away, unless we really luck out in the draft.

 

[hrdboild]

Ray Mac, Ben Mac, Nik, Wiliams, Landry, Casspi...

I want to see at least three of those guys shipped out, and the rest have their roles reduced to something more fitting.

Not Jason Thompson? He's just as inconsistent as the kids.

 

[gunks]

Not Jason Thompson? He's just as inconsistent as the kids.

Fair enough. I edited him in there. I think he definitely has a place on the team though. Any contender would love to have him off of the bench, if we have aspirations of contention (and why shouldnt we with a HOF big on the roster) then he will hopefully be sticking around...As 3rd big.

In a perfect world we would get someone like Ibaka, Nerlens, or Gobert to slide in there next to Cousins as a starter (it worked with Dally).... In the real world, we'll probably have to settle with JT for a bit longer.

Heck, I'd even try to poach Green from GS if the price is right. He's short but a nasty defender (ask Griffin) who can hit the 3. And since he plays for the Warriors, you know he's on Vivek's radar.

 

[9x1x6]

If our front court is Boogie and WCS with JT And Reggie backing him up.. it's just gonne be defences eating up B

Fair enough. I edited him in there. I think he definitely has a place on the team though. Any contender would love to have him off of the bench, if we have aspirations of contention (and why shouldnt we with a HOF big on the roster) then he will hopefully be sticking around...As 3rd big.

In a perfect world we would get someone like Ibaka, Nerlens, or Gobert to slide in there next to Cousins as a starter (it worked with Dally).... In the real world, we'll probably have to settle with JT for a bit longer.

Heck, I'd even try to poach Green from GS if the price is right. He's short but a nasty defender (ask Griffin) who can hit the 3. And since he plays for the Warriors, you know he's on Vivek's radar.

Dray's gonna be a max, Warriors are probably gonna match and eat the luxury tax for a year.

 

[Kingster]

I don't know whether or not I agree on this, since I'll need to look deep into it in order to formulate a well-backed opinion, but one thing is for sure: don't underestimate or forget about chemistry. We all know what happened when they fired Malone. That was chemistry 101.

One thing to remember about talent - it is multi-skilled and multi-dimensional. Talent can adapt to all kinds of different players. But less talented players don't have as many facets and therefore are more compromised when it comes to playing with others. Cousins, for example, can make all kinds of players with different strengths and weaknesses better because he is multi-skilled. D-Will, on the other hand, has to be on just the right team with just the right coach facing just the right opposition in order to be effective. Talent trumps Chemistry because Talent has more facets with which to complement others. Talent contains the seeds of Chemistry within it.

 

[Gilles]

If our front court is Boogie and WCS with JT And Reggie backing him up.. it's just gonne be defences eating up B...

I like WCS quite a lot, and I would absolutely draft him at #6 and lower, but I'm also realistic about what he is: he's a rookie, so you can't just throw him into starting lineup and expect immediate results right from the start of the season, and this team should be ready to compete from the first tip-off. Kings have to get a starting PF, even if it's a stop gap: they should go after Amir Johnson (Toronto very likely wants to go for more impactful guys as the cap grows/get younger, so it's a real possibility, both Amir and Lou will leave Raptors this summer), who is a good all-around defender, can pass, has some face up game and shoots well from outside. He's no Anderson or Frye, but he makes open perimeter shots and competes on D. Kings will have a versatile platoon to field next to Boogie: they will have a choice of individual post defender in Thompson, perimeter/weak-side helper in WCS and all-around defender with shooting touch in Johnson. Then retain Evans and Moreland as a garbage time crew/emergency fill-ins/towel waivers/holders of Casspi's imaginary pistols.
Biggest problem in this plan appears to be the fact, that just like Gibson Amir Johnson's most effective play comes at center this season - is it just an effect of personnel around him or a potential problem, and I repeat the same information, regarding the popular target: Taj Gibson has the same problem as well - the only really effective lineups, he was a part of, had Mirotic at 4.

 

[jcwkings]

My off season wish list

- Draft Porzingis or WCS(not sure which I prefer yet, but leaning toward Porzingis as a better fit next to Cousins)
- Re sign Casspi
- Shop any combination of Landry, JT, Stauskas, Ben, Ray Mac for a SG or upgrade at PF(I would prefer JT stay as a 3rd big).
- Re sign Andre Miller(if Collison and Ray Mac stay)
- Free Agent targets (Draymond Green, Arron Afflalo, Brandon Knight, Khris Middleton, Wesley Matthews, Robin Lopez, Omer Asik, Danny Green, Brandan Wright, Wilson Chandler, Demmarre Carroll, Amir Johnson, Gerald Henderson, Jared Dudley)

PG: Collison, Ray Mac, Miller
SG: Danny Green/Afflalo/ Carroll, Ben Mclemore or Nik Stauskas
SF: Rudy Gay, Omri Casspi
PF: Taj Gibson, Porzingis, Brandan Wright
C: Cousins, JT, Moreland

 

[Flopi]

Something interesting about the SG position :
Since the all-star break, McLemore and Stauskas have nearly identical per 36min stats : http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/161061...36&SeasonSegment=Post All-Star&sort=PTS&dir=1

Nik has better shooting %, Ben is a better defender.

 

[Ron]

... go after Amir Johnson..., who is a good all-around defender, can pass, has some face up game and shoots well from outside. He's no Anderson or Frye, but he makes open perimeter shots and competes on D.

Amir Johnson has a better % from 3 this year than both of them, actually, but he only takes half a 3pt shot a game...
( BTW, this year Anderson's 3pt% has been lower than Casspi's, even when RA was healthy. See comparison HERE).

The problem with Amir Johnson is that he's quite a weak rebounder.

 

[Gilles]

Amir is a slightly better offensive rebounder than JT, while being more perimeter oriented on that end. Defensive rebounding is in large dependent on scheme: MGasol doesn't get many, but Grizzlies lead the league in def.reb.%. Next to Cousins he should be fine.

 

[gunks]

I like the idea of Amir.

Blocks shots and can hit the three. Sounds like a good 4 to put next to Cousins.

We upgrade two positions this FA with solid vets, we're good. We don't even need big name guys, and there should be lots of options out there.

It's just up to the FO to not crap the bed. That's the part I'm worried about.

 

[pshn80]

He strained a muscle (hip flexor). Muscle strains almost always heal 100% and are usually not a major concern for reinjury.

How about when the muscle strain requires surgery?

 

[pshn80]

One thing to remember about talent - it is multi-skilled and multi-dimensional. Talent can adapt to all kinds of different players. But less talented players don't have as many facets and therefore are more compromised when it comes to playing with others. Cousins, for example, can make all kinds of players with different strengths and weaknesses better because he is multi-skilled. D-Will, on the other hand, has to be on just the right team with just the right coach facing just the right opposition in order to be effective. Talent trumps Chemistry because Talent has more facets with which to complement others. Talent contains the seeds of Chemistry within it.

You make a good point but one does not trump the other. By far the best is an effective combination of both.

 

[MizzouKing]

...The problem with Amir Johnson is that he's quite a weak rebounder.

No problem...from JT's comments, I'm gathering that DMC really doesn't like the competition! :-D

 

[jcwkings]

How much cap space will we have over the summer? Is it possible that we could go after two of the mid tier free agents (Afflalo and Amir) and still re sign guys like Casspi and Miller?

 

[9x1x6]

How much cap space will we have over the summer? Is it possible that we could go after two of the mid tier free agents (Afflalo and Amir) and still re sign guys like Casspi and Miller?

66 cap 75ish luxury I believe. Right now we'd have about 13 under the cap, 25 mil if we could shed JT/Landrys contracts.

 

[ockingsfan]

I think George Karl wants Ty Lawson bad and I think the Kings will be very aggressive in pursuing him.

Denver's asking price was 2 first round picks at the trade deadline and there was no way they would get that with his contract.

I think the Kings will offer either BMac or Nik and Darren Collison to try to get him this summer and I have a feeling Denver will deal him. Denver seems to be in rebuild mode.

If the Kings trade away BMac or Nik for Lawson, I can see them going hard after Arron Afflalo.

Hopefully, the Kings get a top 6 pick and take Okafor or Towns (Top 2 pick) or WCS (Top 6 or 7 pick) to be the new Power Forward on this team next year. The Kings should draft the best PF or center to compliment DMC, because no FA big will sign or team is going to trade a high caliber big to the Kings.

The Kings could be a playoff contender with a team of:

PF: WCS (or Towns/Okafor with a lot of luck)/ Carl Landry
SF: Rudy Gay/ Omri Casspi
C: DeMarcus Cousins/ Jason Thompson/ Sim
SG: Arron Afflalo / Nik Stauskas
PG: Ty Lawson / Ray Mac/ A. Miller