Silliness. KMart's value is at an all-time low right now. You're proposing the equivalent of a panic sale. The classic sell-low and buy-high.
1) saying that Kevin's value is the lowest it has ever been right now is NOT the same thing as saying its the lowest it ever
will be. And as an aside, your buy-high is completely out of place. Buy what high? Who? Its sell low perhaps -- you seem to consistently claim to know every possible deal that is and is not available, I make fewer such claims and have not given up hope yet -- but its sell low as opposed to end up selling lower, or not at all.
OK, let's say we trade KMart, for who? Josh Howard? T-Mac? Jose Calderson? If you just simply want to trade KMart for cap space, I got news for you, you can get that deal anytime - this summer, next season, or even the season after that. KMart for expiring is about the lowest value you can reasonably get for him. This is what I mean by sell-low, buy-high.
This may be too long to read, but its fleshed out as much as I am going to:
I have only recently began to consider the KMart for capspace type deals as options -- there is a reason that they begin to look less ridiculous. What you fail to consider is two things:
1) it is almost impossible for Kevin to rebound his value this year to something significantly higher than whatever it is now. The reasoning: right now Kevin's current play would make him essentially untradeable -- if people really thought he was a 38% shooting 17ppg scorer moping around out there at $11mil a year, there would be no market at all. His value today is based on past performance. A past that is receding daily further in the rearview mirror. I would assume that we all agree that IF Kevin's performance were to continue on at its current level that his value would be ever sinking -- the longer the poor performance continued and the further in the past his better days appear, the lower the value gets right? But, you say, he's Kevin, he will bounce back! To which I say: not enough.
If Kevin's residual value right now is as a 23-24ppg SG, he has NO chance to return to those numbers. The reason? Well partially being knocked down the totem pole to 2nd option by Reke. But also because of the factor that epople are overlooking: the logjam. Cisco is about to come back. Already in play are Casspi, Greene, Nocioni, Udrih, Udoka, and Sergio. Not to mention Reke. We are absolutely stuffed to the gills with swingmen clamoring for minutes and shots. There is simply no way that Kevin can EVER return to his former numbers in that situation. And realistically as Tyreke continues his ascent, scores more and more in the future, no way for Kevin to return to his former numebrs for us basically ever. Now can he play better than he has to date? Sure. He very well might. But he's never going to approach the old numbers. And whatever modest improvement he makes is going to be more than offset by the fact that his 23-24ppg seasons are receding into history. Rather than trying to move a 23-24ppg scorer struggling in a bad situation the last month, you are trying to move a 20ppg scorer (maybe -- its been 17 since his return) who doesn't seem to be able to average anymore as a second fiddle. In the current situation assessments will vary -- you have the unknown on your side and some peopel will give him benefit of the doubt, others not. After a full year of this, or even longer, assessments will no longer vary. He's going to be a 20ppg (maybe) scorer with a big contract, no longer that young, no longer talked about as a future All Star. And that's if he doesn't get hurt again -- which he has done every year for the last three -- at which point the market may entirely dry up. If we win, the kids will (appropriately) get credit -- no team is goingto think that all of a sudden Kevin Martin is making the Kings win after years of lottery teams. And if we lose, well the ground is already very well prepared for Kevin to take that fall. There are just far more ways for his value to continue to plummet than for it to bounce back.
2) and here is the kicker -- while Kevin himself might stabilize his value at current levels with both less good and less bad, EVERYBODY ELSE at those positions are going to be losing value and/or development time. This isn't just about Kevin. Its not even primarily about Kevin. Its about big long term contracts we owe Noc and Beno and Cisco. Its about young kids who are the future of the franchise and need every minute, shot, and chance to grow as a team that we can throw at them like Donte and Casspi. Every single one of those assets suffers damage while Kevin si around -- the vets losing shots/minutes such that trading them becomes basically impossible. $6-$9mil guys scoring in single digits and averaging 15mpg. And rapidly developing kids who's minutes, shots, and responsibilities are all shaved by Kevin's presence.
Months ago I defied anyone to list out a minutes/shots grid that worked for that kind of extreme logjam. There just really isn't any. And when I made that challenge I was primarily asking "how can it work" as in how can we win. If you change the question to "how can all of the veterans maintain or increase their trade value and all of the kids maximize their development" its just not even close.
This again goes to that "Kevin is not evil" side of things. Kevin's presence, just by being what he is, causes huge ripples for us far beyond the question of whether Kevin himself can play as a secnd fiddle or mope. It impacts half a dozen other assets of ours, and every single one of them in a negative fashion. The ONLY way to justify that sort of damage is if Kevin himself were going to dramatically increase his own value. But as mentioned he cannot do so in this situation, as a second fiddle, sitting atop talented youth and a stack of depreciating veterans all clamoring for time. At best, and this is far from a sure thing, all he can do is possibly maintain his own value at its current level. Meanwhile half a dozen of his teammates suffer for it.
