Grades v. Wizards 1/16/09

[MassachusettsKingsFan]

Long post. Will hit many points:

These collapses have come against two 12win - 26/28 loss teams who let absolutely everyone they face score at will, and we could not score at all.

And its a little obtuse to think that this is all magical, that gee, when Kevin was with us at the start of the season everybody else struggled badly. Then Kevin returns again, and gee, what a mystery, everybody struggles again. Obviously we need Sherlock Homes to figure out the cause/effect here.

Setting aside my dripping disdain for apologists and "you're a hater" types and all their drivel, I will offer this olive branch: saying that the problems are evidently because of Kevin, is NOT the same thing as saying that Kevin intentionally caused them. With the second implying a conscious decision by his volition.

Ponder for a second the problems they have had up in Portland this year. And I mean the problems aside from the injuries. They started off the season struggling (relatively) and out of rhythm. The two biggest changes/problems vexing them? Greg Oden and Andre Miller. Greg Oden is one of the nicest guys in the NBA -- he would never do anything to intentionally hurt his team. If I had a daughter and she was going to have to marry an NBA player he would up near the top of my preferred list. So would Kevin for that matter (of course I would have given my approval to her marrying Tiger Woods before a few months ago too, so maybe I'm not that geat a judge of these things). In any case, Greg Oden was messing with his team's offensive chemistry, because they had to stop and give him the ball, where they had run pick and rolls with Roy and Aldridge almost exclusively the year before. Andre Miller is one of the more unselfish PGs in the league, but he was messing with Portland's offense because that is not what they need -- Roy is the main ballhandler, Miller was in the way. Does that make Greg Oden or Andre Miller bad people? Does it make Brandon Roy and Aldridge bad people that they can't work well with them on offense? No. And it does not make Kevin a bad person that what he brings clashes with what we have done well this season with him out. These are deeper problems. Structural problems. Basketball problems. Its not just about "how many shots did they get", although that's a good start. Its about where did those shots come from? Were they their preferred shots, or just leftover shots. Did they come in rhtyhm, or just when the other guys couldn't get one off?

Think about it: Who initiates offense on a basketball team? The guards. They bring it up. They start the plays. So now you have one of them looking to score all the time. Ok. Fine. That can work. Just so long as the other one is passing the ball off and trying to get the other players involved. But now what happens if BOTH of them are looking to score all the time? Well I'll tell you what happens -- the guards do. They can. They have the ball, they control their own offense. But everybody else is probably going to get left out in the cold. The problem only gets worse, much worse, when one of these two guards looking to score is a combo guard, and the other is primarily just a pure scorer -- not a creative guy. Not a natural assist man. As far as team involvement, you have now hit just about the nadir. And when we discussed this a month ago or whatever, I pointed out that there have only been a tiny handful of teams that have ever had 2 20pt scorers in the backcourt for even one season. None so far as I recall were big winners. And even the ones that did almost invariably had two guys who both created a lot of shots for teammates. Two PGs, or a PG and a combo guard (the Run TMC Warriors were the exception, with Mullin being the second creative guy at SF). Two guys up in the 5+ assists range keeping everyboyd else involved. This is why BTW, the second scorer being a big man is not as disruptive -- the big man does not initiate the offense. He has to have the ball brought to him. So everybody else can play/gets to play before the ball necessarily ends up in the post guy's hands.

Kevin has come back playing like Kevin Martin, as he said he would. He did not come back as an ogre. Or an Iverson. Just a Kevin. But the problem is that a Kevin is problematic for us as it stands. Not because being a Kevin is always bad, or because he is intentionaly messing things up. But because of the structural difficulties of having both your backcourt guys shooting all the time. Put another way, only a handful of players in the modern history of the league, even for a single season, have done what we are trying to have Reke and Kevin do. And most of those pairs were broken up and/or fell off within a season. If Reke and Kevin fail at it does not necessarily mean that they are bizarre failures at this nifty strategy that should work. It may mean that the strategy just CAN not work, at least not at any high level. The whole idea is flawed, more than the players, who could work in other situations.

You ponder these great backcourts who never did it:
Hamilton and Billups -- never two 20pt scorers, both better passers than their counterparts here
Parker and Manu -- never two 20pt scorers, both better passers than their counterparts here
Zeke and Dumars -- never two 20pt scorers, both better passers than their counterparts here
Porter and Drexler -- never two 20pt scorers, both better passers than their counterparts here
Magic and Scott -- never two 20pt scorers, both better passers than their counterparts here (with Scott its at least close, Magic not so)

you get the idea. Our best models are dating all the way back to the early 70s, when it was a different game and there was a lot more scoring (i.e. they may not have both scored 20 today), and again all the guys were big assisting players -- West/Goodrich and Monroe/Frazier (who did it only once). There is next to no historical proof that what we are trying CAN work, let alone that it will.

And I agree with all of this. Its a great breakdown of what I thought would be the case when Martin returned. But after actually watching the last 2 games ( Im not going to go into the first five, because I dont remember them and Mason and May were getting a lot of minutes ) I havent seen a game where Martin/Evans lost it for us. I know what your saying - The impact Martin has on this team isnt intentional and Its hurting other players even though there statistics have been almost the same ( but they have been less effective ).

Jason Thompson Averages 11.7 FGA PG - With Martin - 9
Spencer Hawes Averages 9.4 FGA PG - With Martin - 12
Omri Casspi Averages 9.6 FGA PG - With Martin -7.5
Beno Udrih Averages 11.1 FGA PG - With Martin 7.5
Donte Greene Averages 7.3 FGA PG - With Martin 3.5 ( played 2 minutes in one game)
Tyreke Evans Averages 16.7 FGA PG - With Martin 16

I know this doesnt tell the whole story - But the shots per game for all these guys havent been all that different. Plus its only been two games - and like I said previously, I think there are more obvious reasons we lost those games than the addition of Kevin Martin. I think everything you said has a good chance at ultimately being the result of Evans/Martin, I just havent seen it yet. I was expecting it.

And Im not sure what some fans want the Kings to do from here. I hope we trade Martin too, not because I have seen him kill this team since he's been back, but because reguardless of what the outcome is - I would rather have a different player on this team. The worst thing Kevin has done since returning is take minutes from Donte. What happens when Cisco comes back? No more Omri? Martin is young, but too old for us. We have one open spot on this team, and thats for a big man. If you can trade Martin for one of those - a good one, a young one ( hello Al Jefferson ) we would be stupid not to do it. But its more than likely Martin with be here till the deadline, so Im going to hold off on bashing the Evans/Martin combo until then, because the Kings are stuck with him for now. Its just the way its going to be.

Maybe we go on a run with these two guys - Maybe we lose every game from here on out until the trading deadline. Big Picture it doesnt matter. We just have to wait and see. Even if the Kings want to trade Martin RIGHT now, whose to say the other team doesnt want to wait till the deadline so they can try and get more from another team? It seems like wasted argueing because I dont want the Kings to give Martin away, I dont want us to get another guard back, and Im not sure where that leaves us.

 

[pshn80]

I think Bricklayer has really laid it out well. It does tend to lead to a 'trade Martin' conclusion. However, such a conclusion depends on how 'right' Evans is or put another way, has Evans, a very good player with potential, shown us yet who he is going to be? I'm optimistic but I'm not sure yet. Play this way for a while, let the team and coaches have a go at it, try playing Martin a little less and Udrih a little more. And, in the mean time, keep applauding like mad and keep sending them candy and frowers.

 

[Ed2009]

I think Bricklayer has really laid it out well. It does tend to lead to a 'trade Martin' conclusion. However, such a conclusion depends on how 'right' Evans is or put another way, has Evans, a very good player with potential, shown us yet who he is going to be? I'm optimistic but I'm not sure yet. Play this way for a while, let the team and coaches have a go at it, try playing Martin a little less and Udrih a little more. And, in the mean time, keep applauding like mad and keep sending them candy and frowers.

Will be interesting to see what will happen within the next weeks.

 

[VF21]

Long post. Will hit many points:

These collapses have come against two 12win - 26/28 loss teams who let absolutely everyone they face score at will, and we could not score at all.

And its a little obtuse to think that this is all magical, that gee, when Kevin was with us at the start of the season everybody else struggled badly. Then Kevin returns again, and gee, what a mystery, everybody struggles again. Obviously we need Sherlock Homes to figure out the cause/effect here.

Setting aside my dripping disdain for apologists and "you're a hater" types and all their drivel, I will offer this olive branch: saying that the problems are evidently because of Kevin, is NOT the same thing as saying that Kevin intentionally caused them. With the second implying a conscious decision by his volition.

Ponder for a second the problems they have had up in Portland this year. And I mean the problems aside from the injuries. They started off the season struggling (relatively) and out of rhythm. The two biggest changes/problems vexing them? Greg Oden and Andre Miller. Greg Oden is one of the nicest guys in the NBA -- he would never do anything to intentionally hurt his team. If I had a daughter and she was going to have to marry an NBA player he would up near the top of my preferred list. So would Kevin for that matter (of course I would have given my approval to her marrying Tiger Woods before a few months ago too, so maybe I'm not that geat a judge of these things). In any case, Greg Oden was messing with his team's offensive chemistry, because they had to stop and give him the ball, where they had run pick and rolls with Roy and Aldridge almost exclusively the year before. Andre Miller is one of the more unselfish PGs in the league, but he was messing with Portland's offense because that is not what they need -- Roy is the main ballhandler, Miller was in the way. Does that make Greg Oden or Andre Miller bad people? Does it make Brandon Roy and Aldridge bad people that they can't work well with them on offense? No. And it does not make Kevin a bad person that what he brings clashes with what we have done well this season with him out. These are deeper problems. Structural problems. Basketball problems. Its not just about "how many shots did they get", although that's a good start. Its about where did those shots come from? Were they their preferred shots, or just leftover shots. Did they come in rhtyhm, or just when the other guys couldn't get one off?

Think about it: Who initiates offense on a basketball team? The guards. They bring it up. They start the plays. So now you have one of them looking to score all the time. Ok. Fine. That can work. Just so long as the other one is passing the ball off and trying to get the other players involved. But now what happens if BOTH of them are looking to score all the time? Well I'll tell you what happens -- the guards do. They can. They have the ball, they control their own offense. But everybody else is probably going to get left out in the cold. The problem only gets worse, much worse, when one of these two guards looking to score is a combo guard, and the other is primarily just a pure scorer -- not a creative guy. Not a natural assist man. As far as team involvement, you have now hit just about the nadir. And when we discussed this a month ago or whatever, I pointed out that there have only been a tiny handful of teams that have ever had 2 20pt scorers in the backcourt for even one season. None so far as I recall were big winners. And even the ones that did almost invariably had two guys who both created a lot of shots for teammates. Two PGs, or a PG and a combo guard (the Run TMC Warriors were the exception, with Mullin being the second creative guy at SF). Two guys up in the 5+ assists range keeping everyboyd else involved. This is why BTW, the second scorer being a big man is not as disruptive -- the big man does not initiate the offense. He has to have the ball brought to him. So everybody else can play/gets to play before the ball necessarily ends up in the post guy's hands.

Kevin has come back playing like Kevin Martin, as he said he would. He did not come back as an ogre. Or an Iverson. Just a Kevin. But the problem is that a Kevin is problematic for us as it stands. Not because being a Kevin is always bad, or because he is intentionaly messing things up. But because of the structural difficulties of having both your backcourt guys shooting all the time. Put another way, only a handful of players in the modern history of the league, even for a single season, have done what we are trying to have Reke and Kevin do. And most of those pairs were broken up and/or fell off within a season. If Reke and Kevin fail at it does not necessarily mean that they are bizarre failures at this nifty strategy that should work. It may mean that the strategy just CAN not work, at least not at any high level. The whole idea is flawed, more than the players, who could work in other situations.

You ponder these great backcourts who never did it:
Hamilton and Billups -- never two 20pt scorers, both better passers than their counterparts here
Parker and Manu -- never two 20pt scorers, both better passers than their counterparts here
Zeke and Dumars -- never two 20pt scorers, both better passers than their counterparts here
Porter and Drexler -- never two 20pt scorers, both better passers than their counterparts here
Magic and Scott -- never two 20pt scorers, both better passers than their counterparts here (with Scott its at least close, Magic not so)

you get the idea. Our best models are dating all the way back to the early 70s, when it was a different game and there was a lot more scoring (i.e. they may not have both scored 20 today), and again all the guys were big assisting players -- West/Goodrich and Monroe/Frazier (who did it only once). There is next to no historical proof that what we are trying CAN work, let alone that it will.

As one who has been very vocal in my objections, I want to thank you for the clarification.

 

[mr. moustache]

Long term Martin might not fit this team. In fact, I'm pretty sure he doesn't fit this team. However, the last two games have hardly been evidence of that. It's WAY to early to blame KM for the current suckitude of this team.

I'm going to disregard the first 5 games because the young guys hadn't figured out they were good yet. The team has been playing bad for a while now and frankly, I didn't see anything different with Kevin out there. Kevin's being Kevin. If anything, I'm seeing Evans modifying his game when he needn't.

Obviously a talented big is more valuable to our team than Martin(or anyone else not named Evans), but Kevin isn't worth a *good* young big, so a trade isn't going to yield one of those without adding Casspi and pick(s).

I honestly don't think he's worth more than a mid-late 1st round pick plus expirings. Frankly, I'd trade him just to get someone to take Noc and Beno(Hou?). Then we can "tank" proper.

 

[Bricklayer]

Long term Martin might not fit this team. In fact, I'm pretty sure he doesn't fit this team. However, the last two games have hardly been evidence of that. It's WAY to early to blame KM for the current suckitude of this team.

I'm going to disregard the first 5 games because the young guys hadn't figured out they were good yet. The team has been playing bad for a while now and frankly, I didn't see anything different with Kevin out there. Kevin's being Kevin. If anything, I'm seeing Evans modifying his game when he needn't.

Obviously a talented big is more valuable to our team than Martin(or anyone else not named Evans), but Kevin isn't worth a *good* young big, so a trade isn't going to yield one of those without adding Casspi and pick(s).

I honestly don't think he's worth more than a mid-late 1st round pick plus expirings. Frankly, I'd trade him just to get someone to take Noc and Beno(Hou?). Then we can "tank" proper.

You don't think a 20+ppg player in his prime is worth more than than a #15-#25 pick in trade?

 

[mr. moustache]

+ expirings. Those have quite a bit of value. If we're willing to take non-expirings back, then depending on the contract(s), Kevin could yield a bit more. I'd also include picks from 09-15 as well. I consider those mid-rangeish.

A 20+ppg player in his prime that doesn't rebound, defend, or create for himself or others isn't worth much.

Honestly, do you think other teams aren't aware of his strengths and weaknesses? He has exactly one strength and many weaknesses.

Put yourself in the GM shoes of every other team. He's a nice asset, but I certainly wouldn't sacrifice much of my talent-pool to get him.

If you're asking me whether or not I'd trade Kevin today for the #15 + expirings, I'd do it.

You don't think a 20+ppg player in his prime is worth more than than a #15-#25 pick in trade?

 

[swisshh]

Kevin has more value to certain teams than others. The Jazz are a team in desperate need of outside shooting, so Kevin has high value there. Kevin doesn't have high value to a Hawks team, because they have a guy like Crawford.

In that scenario, Kevin is worth an Al Jefferson to the TWolves due to need. There is not a flate rate for trade value here, it's all depending on those involved.

 

[mr. moustache]

Kevin + expirings + Casspi = maybe

Kevin has more value to certain teams than others. The Jazz are a team in desperate need of outside shooting, so Kevin has high value there. Kevin doesn't have high value to a Hawks team, because they have a guy like Crawford.

In that scenario, Kevin is worth an Al Jefferson to the TWolves due to need. There is not a flate rate for trade value here, it's all depending on those involved.

 

[Bricklayer]

Kevin + expirings + Casspi = maybe

That's obviously not happening.

Nor is it even the right package. The Wolves need an outside scorer. Kevin is that. They would also need a big to fill in with Jefferson gone. They are also a young team at the bottom of the rebuild. Point being that Kevin, expirings, one of our young bigs, our pick...all these things have value to the Wolves in the end.