[Grades] Grades v. Suns 3/25/2015

[sdballer]

Then why did they say that they fired Malone because they thought replacing him would make the team better this year? And why did they come out last month, and release a statement admitting that they were wrong? They weren't trying to lose, they were trying to win, and they were actually dumb enough to believe that firing Malone would work.

Watching some fans try to turn this cluster of a season into brilliantly planned maneuvering from PDA/Vivek is beyond sad.

They tried to win. Just like they tried to put together a roster that runs and shoots and passes at a high level, except without players that do that well. Luckily we seem to have found a really good coach and have some core pieces.

But we lost because they aren't good at their jobs. Nothing else.

 

[hrdboild]

We lose all the rest, win #1 pick, get our man and after three fruitless years we trade this number one for a mature John Salmons. No thanks, I'll take the wins and the chance that our no. 8 pick might turn out pretty good.
John.
Salmons

You don't trade #1-3 picks for John Salmons. You trade #8 picks for John Salmons. We haven't had a top 3 pick since 1991, (which we traded for Hall of Fame guard Mitch Richmond).

throwing those odds out the window....the motto Kings fans abide by in the last couple of chances at the lottery is to expect the worst and that's exactly what happens every single time.

The same people who believe in lottery curses believe that "momentum" in March and April somehow carries over into October. It doesn't. And the lottery is a statistical probability. The more we win, the lower the probability. You can call it bad luck if you like to feel persecuted, but it's not real.

 

[Bricklayer]

Tanking deserves no respect, ever in life. Fortunately, that's not what we did.

Tanking is a wonderful strategy...at the right time.

As an ex-military man you should know this. Have your forces "lose" a battle and fallback, let the enemy eagerly pursue them thinking they have them routed, and lead them right into the valley of death.

If you want to be a strategic chess master, you simply must understand the value of sacrificing pieces.

If you are an NBA team, you must understand the value of getting a superstar trumps all else. tanking, i.e. "sacrificing" games, is just the strategic means to the logical goal.

BUT, once you have one, once you have a mature team and coach, then tanking is a terrible strategy. Everything has its time. This isn't that time. We have our superstar, now the trick is finding ways to keep him.

NBA Team Life Cycle:

Draft Superstar
Build Team Around Star
Challenge for Playoff Fringe
Become Playoff Contender
Make it over the top or not
Begin to age back to Playoff Fringe
Struggle to replace aging pieces and fall out of playoffs
Pull plug, trade players for picks, tank hard
Draft superstar

Rinse and repeat.

The problem is that people still think we are here:

"Pull plug, trade players for picks, tank hard"

When in fact we are somewhere between here:

"Build Team Around Star"

and here:

"Challenge for Playoff Fringe"

 

[VF21]

Watching some fans try to turn this cluster of a season into brilliantly planned maneuvering from PDA/Vivek is beyond sad.

Whoa. Where did you get that from? Brilliant maneuvering from PDA/Vivek? As delusional as some of the posts have been around here at times, nobody has gone to that level of batcrap nuttery.

 

[kingsboi]

You don't trade #1-3 picks for John Salmons. You trade #8 picks for John Salmons. We haven't had a top 3 pick since 1991, (which we traded for Hall of Fame guard Mitch Richmond).



The same people who believe in lottery curses believe that "momentum" in March and April somehow carries over into October. It doesn't. And the lottery is a statistical probability. The more we win, the lower the probability. You can call it bad luck if you like to feel persecuted, but it's not real.

only the Kings trade a lottery pick for John Salmons. How many statistical probabilities have the Kings encountered in the lottery since 91?

 

[Sac.Kings]

I accept wins as they come. If we were fighting for the draft lottery then I would be disappointed, but we are playing for more than just honor now. This is the foundation for next season (how we got here is now irrelevant, mostly through a chaotic mess, but what's done is done). It's nice to see the team buy in again and actually play hard. If it means something to the players it means something to me. It was different with an interim coach, you could see no one gave a rat's ass about anything, so I stopped watching. Win or lose, as long as the effort is there and the players care, I will be there too. Just can't stand watching players go through the motions.

 

[sdballer]

Whoa. Where did you get that from? Brilliant maneuvering from PDA/Vivek? As delusional as some of the posts have been around here at times, nobody has gone to that level of batpoopoo nuttery.

Fine. Not brilliant. But anything claiming this was all a deliberate plan is being silly.

 

[Tetsujin]

Clearly you're just not paying attention. New Orleans in 2012 did some of the most blatant tanking I've ever seen (a 6pt 4th quarter is beyond shameless) and the hilarious part is that they were owned by the NBA at the time.

Not sure how much of that was tanking and how much of that was just having Marco Belinelli as your best player for the duration of the season.

 

[Gliesian]

I'm sticking to my guns. When it was clear we couldn't win without Cousins and it seemed like we might not make playoffs and potentially lose the pick, the decision to secure the draft pick was made. Also, maybe we will be better with Karl instead of Malone. I'm not saying PDA just made up an excuse to tank. It's really not that brilliant of a plan.

 

[pshn80]

Hey, team, for me just go out and win, play good basketball, show some life, make us think there is hope for the future, don't get enameled with who is available in the draft, wait until June 28 and find out who we drafted and speculate on how soon or whether the player will ever help us, in the meantime win it all next season. Being tired, take a day off.

 

[rainmaker]

Clearly you're just not paying attention. New Orleans in 2012 did some of the most blatant tanking I've ever seen (a 6pt 4th quarter is beyond shameless) and the hilarious part is that they were owned by the NBA at the time.

Yeah, but NO isn't tanking after getting Davis, just as we shouldn't after getting Cuz. As Brick has alluded to, after you get your prized possession, you try to win, win at all costs.

We finish this out strong, not only does it help the chemistry/dynamic in the locker room but it increases the chances a Rudy/Cuz pairing coached by Karl can attract a FA or two who can help. Plus, we have **** luck in the lottery. I'm not playing that game anymore, not as long is Cuz has Kings across his chest. There will be a time to tank again, NBA operates in cycles, it just better not be until I have far less hair on my head.

 

[206Fan]

I don't think the Kings have ever tanked for the last 5 years...let's be honest, we were just never good.

However, I do hope that we win the lottery this year. If we win the lottery, we're guaranteed in the playoffs no doubt.

I hope the Kings continue to win, but also end up with a top 5 pick after

 

[Bricklayer]

I don't think the Kings have ever tanked for the last 5 years...let's be honest, we were just never good.

However, I do hope that we win the lottery this year. If we win the lottery, we're guaranteed in the playoffs no doubt.

I hope the Kings continue to win, but also end up with a top 5 pick after

I think there was some tanking philosophy as recently as last year as Gerbil dumped every no talent kid on the West Coast on Malone, refused to patch roster holes, and then IT suddenly mysteriously disappeared with an "injury".

We certainly did our only proper tank under Kenny Natt, as Petrie finally FINALLY pulled the plug on the old borings and shipped off Brad, Salmons etc. fro whatever we could get and spiraled out to an awful record. The other years...not so much. But I do agree its hard to tell when you are as consistently bad as we have been.

 

[hrdboild]

Yeah, but NO isn't tanking after getting Davis, just as we shouldn't after getting Cuz. As Brick has alluded to, after you get your prized possession, you try to win, win at all costs.

We finish this out strong, not only does it help the chemistry/dynamic in the locker room but it increases the chances a Rudy/Cuz pairing coached by Karl can attract a FA or two who can help. Plus, we have **** luck in the lottery. I'm not playing that game anymore, not as long is Cuz has Kings across his chest. There will be a time to tank again, NBA operates in cycles, it just better not be until I have far less hair on my head.

See I don't think you even understand what I'm saying. I'm not talking about pillaging the team to play for lottery picks like Philadelphia is doing. I'm not talking about trading every veteran we have. I've never gone into a season thinking that we should tank. New Orleans paid what we wouldn't to acquire Tyreke Evans and then traded two lotto picks for Jrue Holiday. That's after they already maxed out Eric Gordon a couple years ago. They invested in talent to make sure they won't need to tank any time soon.

But there comes a point when you have to look around and make the best choice for your future. At the point where we have 22 wins in the middle of March, it makes more sense to give up on wins/losses and play for lottery stock. There's not a team in the NBA that would not greatly benefit from a top 3 pick. That includes last year's champions. Every team in the league is playing for the future. I root for the Kings to win all season except when there's a month left, we've got 22 wins, and a few extra wins could be the difference between starting the summer with a top 3 pick in our back pocket and starting without one. You're telling me there's a free agent who looks at Sacramento with Cousins/Gay/Karl and 31 wins and says yes but would say no to Cousins/Rudy/Karl with 25 wins and a top 3 pick? That's just not reality. Finishing the season out strong matters if you have a playoff series to prepare for. Finishing the season out strong is not going to help the team next season more than adding a top 3 pick or trading a top 3 pick for an All-Star level player would.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Tanking is a wonderful strategy...at the right time.

Intentional fouling is also a wonderful strategy... at the right time. It's still a ***** move.

 

[captain bill]

See I don't think you even understand what I'm saying. I'm not talking about pillaging the team to play for lottery picks like Philadelphia is doing. I'm not talking about trading every veteran we have. I've never gone into a season thinking that we should tank. New Orleans paid what we wouldn't to acquire Tyreke Evans and then traded two lotto picks for Jrue Holiday. That's after they already maxed out Eric Gordon a couple years ago. They invested in talent to make sure they won't need to tank any time soon.

But there comes a point when you have to look around and make the best choice for your future. At the point where we have 22 wins in the middle of March, it makes more sense to give up on wins/losses and play for lottery stock. There's not a team in the NBA that would not greatly benefit from a top 3 pick. That includes last year's champions. Every team in the league is playing for the future. I root for the Kings to win all season except when there's a month left, we've got 22 wins, and a few extra wins could be the difference between starting the summer with a top 3 pick in our back pocket and starting without one. You're telling me there's a free agent who looks at Sacramento with Cousins/Gay/Karl and 31 wins and says yes but would say no to Cousins/Rudy/Karl with 25 wins and a top 3 pick? That's just not reality. Finishing the season out strong matters if you have a playoff series to prepare for. Finishing the season out strong is not going to help the team next season more than adding a top 3 pick or trading a top 3 pick for an All-Star level player would.

You keep saying top 3 pick. It doesn't work that way.

There are a ton of other factors (trade protections, current lotto standings, lottery system) that make current end of season standings close to meaningless. If we win the lotto, great. If we fall out of the top 10, also great (lifting conditional draft picks is HUGE for our flexibibility). We can't tank to top 3, so we'll be on the bubble of pick / no pick no matter what.

So why not let Karl do his thing? Arco is rocking, and agents and players notice.

 

[IfAt1st]

I'm conflicted, with the "better to lose for draft position" vs the "better to win for chemistry and making a case to free agents we're getting better", because they are both accurate.

I think the Kings can satisfy both if they win one or two more, then Demarcus goes out for the rest of the season with an "injury" (which, of course, isn't really an injury).
They will have shown they can win (even without their starting PG), and they could potentially convince FA's of their promise (combined with the hot start this season).

Problem is -
there's still that elephant in the room.
Vivek and his meddling, and the backstabbing FO.

I really don't see any way to salvage Sac's reputation based on the FO's actions this year.
Firing Malone (and the timing!), then saying Corbin's their man and will be better than Malone, shining on Karl for months, then turning around and blaming their franchise center for it, then hiring Karl?
That's full-on bush-league buffoonery, there.

I just don't see how Sac can change its reputation amongst the league with this FO and this (perceived-as-clueless) owner.
For example, we had the exact kind of veteran 3-and-D player we needed this year on the roster, and he wouldn't play for us! 7th best in the league, apparently, Jason Terry.
Dude wouldn't play for us, and we had to give up two 2nd round picks for the privileged of handing away the exact kind of player we'd be lucky to get this upcoming offseason.

Until THAT dynamic can be fixed, and that perception of the Kings is changed, I don't see how we get significantly better next season unless we win the lottery.

I do know one thing, though - unless the Kings get a Top 3 pick, they BETTER trade it this year (after YEARS they should have done this) for a proven vet. They just don;t have the luxury of waiting 3 years for the rookie to mature and be good. They need someone who can help turn around the franchise next year, that's absolutely certain.

 

[hrdboild]

You keep saying top 3 pick. It doesn't work that way.

There are a ton of other factors (trade protections, current lotto standings, lottery system) that make current end of season standings close to meaningless. If we win the lotto, great. If we fall out of the top 10, also great (lifting conditional draft picks is HUGE for our flexibibility). We can't tank to top 3, so we'll be on the bubble of pick / no pick no matter what.

So why not let Karl do his thing? Arco is rocking, and agents and players notice.

Actually, no. We were on the bubble of getting a top 3 pick -- close to 1 in 3 odds. We're at 1 in 5 odds right now. Pretty soon we'll be at 1 in 10. That's a pretty huge difference. 1 in 3 is a legit chance. 1 in 10 is a prayer. All I'm saying is that all things being equal, I'd rather have the 1 in 3 odds and a legit shot. Because I don't believe in curses and because I haven't seen any evidence over the last 5 years that the small amount of momentum generated by last place teams winning a few in a row late in the year has any positive effect whatsoever on the following season. We've been in the mid twenties for wins for the better part of a decade. Nothing has changed.

There was 2011 when we traded Landry for Thornton and made a late season charge, winning 9 games after March 14th. We traded that pick for Jimmer and John Salmons, re-signed Thornton to a contract that we already regretted the following season, watched Dalembert sign elsewhere, and replaced him with Chuck Hayes and another contract we regretted. You could make a case that the "momentum" generated by the last month of 2011 crippled us for the next three years because of the chain reaction of bad decisions it set in motion.

Then there was the lockout season, 2012, when we parlayed all that end of the year momentum into a 6-14 start, fired the head coach and gave up on playing Tyreke at PG ever again. We went on to win 8 games after March 16th which got us the 5th pick -- Thomas Robinson. Our big additions the following off-season were James Johnson and Aaron Brooks. You could see this team was really coming together though. We stomped all over the 7 win Charlotte Bobcats and crushed the Lakers bench crew.

In 2013 we got off to another blazingly hot start of 2-10, gave up on Robinson by the All-Star break, and won 8 games after March 3rd. I had Victor Oladipo and Nerlens Noel 1-2 on my wishlist and both of them would be perfect compliments to Cousins. 4 of the 5 teams which finished with worse records than us in 2013 have better records than us this season.

Last season we started out 6-14. PDA traded 3/4ths of the roster by the All-Star break (including 4 out of 5 opening day starters) and the result was ... we won 8 games after March 3rd again. The message board was rife with talk of our .500 record when IT, Gay, and Cousins shared the floor, but PDA swapped IT for Collison. Omri Casspi returned and Cuz and Rudy spent the summer playing for Team USA. And a funny thing happened -- we actually improved without IT. This season we started out 9-5 against the toughest opening schedule we've faced in a long time.

So I can't believe I'm still hearing people talk about end of the season momentum after we've seen over and over again that it's a complete myth. A top 3 pick in any of these drafts would have turned things around a lot faster than any of those wins in March and April. There's one surefire way to get off to a hot start in any season -- build a winning roster. Can we do that without a top 3 pick? It's certainly possible. I don't think we actually need the top 3 pick, I just think it makes things a heck of a lot easier for a front office which could use all the help they can get.

 

[captain bill]

Actually, no. We were on the bubble of getting a top 3 pick -- close to 1 in 3 odds. We're at 1 in 5 odds right now. Pretty soon we'll be at 1 in 10. That's a pretty huge difference. 1 in 3 is a legit chance. 1 in 10 is a prayer. All I'm saying is that all things being equal, I'd rather have the 1 in 3 odds and a legit shot.

Your draft odd numbers are wrong.

We are currently no 6, giving us a 21.4% chance at a top 3 pick.

Change our 4-0 streak to 0-4 and we would still be 2 loses behind Orlando for no. 5. At 5, the odds of getting to the top 3 jump to 29.2% (and 62% odds of picking 5th or 6th). To get to number 4 we would have to catch the Lakers or Sixers, which was near impossible.

What exactly are you proposing? That the Kings shouldn't have hired Karl?? You want to risk stalling any progress, alienating our best players, and going into a multi-year tailspin to improve by around 10% (where you are STILL statistically likely NOT to get a top 3 pick)

 

[PoundForPound]

Your draft odd numbers are wrong.

We are currently no 6, giving us a 21.4% chance at a top 3 pick.

Change our 4-0 streak to 0-4 and we would still be 2 loses behind Orlando for no. 5. At 5, the odds of getting to the top 3 jump to 29.2%

To get to number 4 we would have to catch the Lakers or Sixers, which was near impossible.

What exactly are you proposing? That the Kings shouldn't have hired Karl??

I'm sorry, but all of this discussion about our pick or draft position is infuriating. Our team is currently in the midst of a 4-game win streak, they're playing great basketball, and we're talking about how we'd rather have better odds in the draft. We're not making the playoffs, but real fans want to see their team win no matter the circumstances, this losing mentality has got to go. I'm shaking my head right now.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

I'm sorry, but all of this discussion about our pick or draft position is infuriating. Our team is currently in the midst of a 4-game win streak, they're playing great basketball, and we're talking about how we'd rather have better odds in the draft. We're not making the playoffs, but real fans want to see their team win no matter the circumstances, this losing mentality has got to go. I'm shaking my head right now.

Mod Note: Don't go there. This board is divisive enough as it is. Make your points without resorting to "No True Scotsman Kings Fan" fallacies.

In case I wasn't clear, the above applies to everyone.

 

[Bricklayer]

I'm sorry, but all of this discussion about our pick or draft position is infuriating. Our team is currently in the midst of a 4-game win streak, they're playing great basketball, and we're talking about how we'd rather have better odds in the draft. We're not making the playoffs, but real fans want to see their team win no matter the circumstances, this losing mentality has got to go. I'm shaking my head right now.

tanking advocates, as I have mentioned in the past, actually want their team to win MORE than you do. They dream of their team winning big. And they're willing to sacrifice short term happiness for long term success, which would make them perhaps the most dedicated to winning of all.

They just happen to be out of time/life cycle at the moment.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

tanking advocates, as I have mentioned in the past, actually want their team to win MORE than you do. They dream of their team winning big. And they're willing to sacrifice short term happiness for long term success, which would make them perhaps the most dedicated to winning of all.

Well, that's not undermining, at all. Thanks for nothing.

But, disregarding all of that, even if I were to stipulate that tanking works sometimes, this argument is pointless within the context of this team, and this season. And I know that you agree with me, because I know that you believe that you tank to get the centerpiece, and then you stop trying to tank. And I know that you think that Cousins is that centerpiece, so the process of continuing to try and lose for draft picks is a waste of time, even if you think that it's a good idea in the abstract. I can't believe we're having this conversation.

 

[Bricklayer]

Well, that's not undermining, at all. Thanks for nothing.

But, disregarding all of that, even if I were to stipulate that tanking works sometimes, this argument is pointless within the context of this team, and this season. And I know that you agree with me, because I know that you believe that you tank to get the centerpiece, and then you stop trying to tank. And I know that you think that Cousins is that centerpiece, so the process of continuing to try and lose for draft picks is a waste of time, even if you think that it's a good idea in the abstract. I can't believe we're having this conversation.

oh, I didn't and don't argue in the nowers aren't true fans. But then again that's almost never said.

In any case, yes, you summed up my position.

 

[gunks]

Problem is -
there's still that elephant in the room.
Vivek and his meddling, and the backstabbing FO.

This +10000. Vivek just got 28th in ESPN's (not that ESPN's word is law) ranking of NBA owners. Hey, at least he's above Dolan and the Russian mobster!

Vivek is a smart guy, but he's also arrogant as hell. One just has to hope Vivek's smarts beat out his arrogance and he realizes that hey, maybe his basketball ideas aren't revolutionary at all, but in fact very, very stupid! There is a reason you dont see 4 on 5 defense in the NBA, and it isnt because nobody has thought of it before...

Vivek just HAS to know that this clusterfart of a season was his doing, so maybe he'll learn and back off.

Also.... Mullin is poison. He's like Grima Wormtongue from Lord of the Rings. We need Vlade to go all Gandolf on him and run him out of town.

PDA has made some good moves, and he's made some bad moves. If he becomes the scapegoat for this messed up season and gets fired, I wont lose any sleep over it. I think it's more likely that he'll stay, but his moves going forward will be heavily influenced by Karl.

But yeah, you're absolutely right. Our FO is probably scaring off a lot of potential FAs. Forget rebuilding our roster, they need to rebuild their image first. Vlade was a step in the right direction.

 

[twslam07]

Also.... Mullin is poison. He's like Grima Wormtongue from Lord of the Rings. We need Vlade to go all Gandolf on him and run him out of town.

This is pure gold. lol

 

[upinsmoke]

Intentional fouling is also a wonderful strategy... at the right time. It's still a ***** move.

No its not it's a perfectly legit strategy if you can't hit ft's that's your problem.

 

[Hadlowe]

Also.... Mullin is poison. He's like Grima Wormtongue from Lord of the Rings. We need Vlade to go all Gandolf on him and run him out of town.

Which would make PDA Saruman? Or is PDA Theoden, and Vivek Saruman? I ask because I am trying to figure out who gets killed in the Scouring of the Shire later on.

 

[Hadlowe]

No its not it's a perfectly legit strategy if you can hit ft's that's your problem.

I don't think Slim would disagree that it's a legit strategy. It also SUCKS for fans to watch. Just because something is smart and effective doesn't mean that it is good.

 

[upinsmoke]

I don't think Slim would disagree that it's a legit strategy. It also SUCKS for fans to watch. Just because something is smart and effective doesn't mean that it is good.

I for one got a kick out of D. Jordan running around like he's playing a game of tag because he's more athlete than basketball player.