Future Prospects: Highschool to College.

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#1
I originally had this thread in the Special Projects fourm, but I overlooked the minor fact, that only a select few had access to that fourm. I will be giving my opinion on future prospects, some that may still be in highschool as well as college. For now, I've decided to set up shop here. Its possible that could change in the future.

Its also that time of the year where there's little to talk about, and this year, with the lockout, there's even less. And, I might suggest that if the lockout continues, god forbid, far into the regular season, that college basketball is a good alternative. OK, enough about that.

I'm going to post as much information about each player that I think could be revelant in future drafts. Obviously the younger the player, the less information that will be available, and the less revelant that information will be.

I want to start with Andre Drummond, a 6'10" center. If you were to visit the two most prevelant mock draft sites, you'll find him ranked number one on NBAdraft, and not even listed Draftexpress. A little confusing, no? I think NBAdraft is somewhat premature in their listing. Drummond is going to be a highschool senior this next season. So normally he would have to wait until he finishes his freshman year of college to apply for the draft. However, he was set back a year in highschool, and if not, he would have graduated Highschool this past year and would be going into his freshman year of college.

So what does all this mean? It means he would have to ask the NBA to reclassify his status. What the odds are of that becoming a reality is anyone's guess. Its out of my area of expertise. What I do know, is that if a player has attended one year of college, he's then elligible. If a player turns 19 years of age during the current calendar year, he's elligible. That could be the rub for Drummond, because he turns 19 on august 10 of 2012, and I believe the Calendar year ends on july 31st. So it could be a close but no cigar for him.

Now considering that by all accounts, he would have been a college freshman had he not been set back a year, and the fact that his birthday just barely misses the deadline date, they may make an exception. I hope they don't, and who knows, the new CBA may make it a moot point. I just think he would be best served by going to at least one year of college.

He's a raw specimen right now. Great athlete with great size and length. But offensively he nothing more than a dunker and little or no game away from the basket. He's proven to be a very good shotblocker at the highschool level. But he's also been a man amongst boys. I'd hate to bet my entire six pack on someone with so little to go on. We're not talking about Lebron James here. Anyway, more on Drummond at a later time.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#2
I'm going to go through the players by the colleges they play for. That way, those that wish to follow the top ranked players, will have an idea of which schools to follow, at least from a draft prespective. Sort of, where do you get the most bang for the buck. So I'll start with Kentucky, which is ranked number one on most boards. The top holdover from last season is of course, Terrence Jones. But Calapari has done a terrific job of recruiting, and he landed no less than four players in the top 25, and no less than three in the top five ranked highschool players in the country. So we'll start with Anthony Davis, who is ranked number one, on three of the top four respected rankings in the country.

Anthony Davis: Commited to Kentucky. 2nd ranked highschool player in the nation. 6'9.50", 208 pounds, with a 7'4" wingspan (measured at Nike Hoop Summit), Power forward. Davis is a terrific athlete that runs the floor like a deer. By the end of his sophmore year, no one had heard of him. Depending on which account you read, he grew somewhere between 7 to 10 inches between the end of his sophmore year, and the beginning of his senior year. Regardless, he ended up at 6'9.50" in shoes. Also measured at the Nike Hoop Summit. So what you have is another one of those 6'10" (for typing purposes) players that is learning to play in a new body. Our own Jason Thompson is an example of such a player. In Davis case, he seems to have brought all his guard skills along with him. He handles the ball extremely well for a big man, and is a very good passer.

My personal knowledge involves two all star games. The Nike Hoop Summit, and the Jordan Brand Classic. Davis played very well in both, and was clearly the best big man on the floor, with James McAdoo being the only other standout that springs to mind. Defensively, he was very good. Blocking or altering shots. He showed quick feet and good instincts around the basket. His biggest weakness, both offensively and defensively, is his lack of strength. He's very thin at just under 210 pounds, and while he should be able to get by at the college level, I don't see him having an easy time of it at the NBA level. Having said that, he has wide shoulders and a very good frame that should easily carry more weight.

Offensively, in highschool he was unstoppable around the basket. But I thought he had more trouble in both the all star games at times when matched up with someone stronger than he was. Although fundamentaly, he has a pretty good post game. He also has a very nice, pull up jumpshot from 12 to 18 feet. Where he really excells is in transition, running the floor. He's an excellent finisher off the break. Despite his lack of strength, he's a very good rebounder. He just seems to have a nose for the ball. Two things I really like about him so far, are that he appears to be a very unselfish player, and he has a very good motor. He also has very good hands. He catches everything that comes his way.

Obviously there's a reason he's ranked number one. While NBAdraft.com has Drummond ranked number one, he doesn't have the skill level of Davis. And when two athlete's are similar in athletic ability, I'm going to put my money on the more skilled player. At least at this point in time. Hopefully, Davis will slotted at the PF position, thereby allowing Terrence Jones to move to the SF position, which I believe is his more natural position. Right now, Davis is the top big man in the draft. Which means nothing of course. The proof is in the play. Last season Harrison Barnes was the top ranked player to start the season, and by halfway through the season he had become Harrison who? Derrick Williams, a player that had done nothing to write about his freshman year, and who wasn't one of the top 50 players coming out of highschool, suddenly burst onto the scene and ended up being the second pick in the draft.

So one never knows. Next up, the number three ranked highschool player in the nation, also commited to Kentucky, Michael Gilchrist.
 
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bajaden

Hall of Famer
#3
Michael Gilchrist: Commited to Kentucky. 3rd ranked highschool player in the nation. 6'7" SF (in shoes), 221 pounds, with a 6'11" wingspan. Small Forward. All measurements from the Nike Hoops Classic. He should have the word Winner, attached to his name. He's one of my favorite players entering college, and now he'll be suiting up for Kentucky. I've followed him as closely as I can from his freshman year at highschool. He's been ranked one of the top three highschool players in the country every year he's been in highschool. In the 2008/09 season he led St. Patricks highschool, to the state championship. His senior year he averaged 19.4 PPG, 14.3 RPG, 6.3 APG, 5.2 BPG, and 3.5 SPG.

He led the U.S. U17 team to an 8 and 0 record, winning the gold medal for the 17 and under group. He averaged 15.0 PPG and 7.3 RPG. He played in both the McDonalds All American, and Nike Hoops Classic games and averaged 16 pts, 5 rebounds, 5 blocks, and 1 steal in the Nike game and 16 pts, 12 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1 steal in the McDonalds game.

NBAdraft.com compares him to Andre Iguodala, and because of Gilchrist defensive abilities, I can see the comparison. But I would compare him more to a young Michael Jordan. I'm not saying he'll be as good as Jordan, but I think his overall personality added with more advanced offensive skills than Iguodala has, makes me lean in that direction. Defensively, Gilchrist is a beast. He's a physical in your face type of defender. He'll bump chests with you all the way down the floor. I've seen no one that likes being defended by him. In highschool he defended everyone from PG's to PF's. He takes more pride in his defense than he does his offense.

He's also a very good rotation player and is outstanding at playing the passing lanes. He's a tremendous weakside help and shotblocking defender. He's also a glue guy. He's constantly talking to his teammates on defense, and will get in a teammates face if he thinks he's slacking off. He's also an outstanding rebounder for his position. He rebounds extremely well both in and out of his space.

Offensively, he runs the floor very well and is an outstanding finisher at the basket. He's also quite capable of taking you off the dribble and going either right or left. He has deceptive speed. He'll appear to be cruising down the floor and then suddenly he'll shift to another gear and blow right by you. He's not a freak athlete, but he's definitely an above average athlete. His biggest weakness is the range on his jumpshot. Right now he's accurrate out to about 18 feet, but beyond the 3 pt circle he's very inconsistent. His ballhandling is OK for a SF, but if he's asked to play SG at the next level, he'll have to improve in that area.

This is a kid with few weaknesses and with a very high basketball IQ. He's team oriented, unselfish, and is one of those guys with star written all over him, thats williing to do the dirty work required to win games. More than that, he's not tolerant of teammates who aren't willing bust their butts. Those are the things that remind me of Jordan. Obviously, I like this kid a lot, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him ranked in the top 3 by the end of the college season. He is a leader that does make everyone on his team better.
 
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bajaden

Hall of Famer
#4
Marquis Teague: Commited to Kentucky. 5th ranked highschool player in the nation, and top ranked Point Guard. 6'1.5" in shoes, 178 pounds, with a 6'6.5" wingspan, all measurements from the Nike Hoops Classic. Marquis is the little brother of Jeff Teague, and in my opinion, will hands down be the better player of the two. At this same point in time, Marquis is light years ahead of Jeff. Although they both have some of the same flaws at this same point in time. Marquis is an ankle breaker. He has serious handles, and can shake and bake with anyone. In the open court, he's almost unstoppable with the ability to change directions on a dime. At times the ball appears to be on a rubber band attached to his hand.

He has an explosive first step and can get by just about anyone one on one. Some have compared him to John Wall, but I think his first step is quicker than Walls, but Wall is faster end to end. Think Racehorse compared to Quarterhorse. Obviously Teague is a very good athlete, and is a good finisher at the basket. He can finish with either hand. He's also a good midrange shooter, and because he so dangerous off the dribble, he can get that shot anytime he wants. He's also a very good distributor of the ball and is unselfish in that regard. In the open court, he has very good court vision. Now in the halfcourt, its another story. In the U17 world championships he struggled. As a result, many times, he overdribbled and forced the ball when there was nothing there. I doubt he ever faced a zone defense in highschool that came close to what he faced in the U17 worlds.

I'm sure he'll see plenty of zones in college, but he's young, and very talented, so I don't see any reason he can't adjust. One of the reasons he struggled against the zone is his lack of consistency with his outside shot. Like his brother Jeff, and a lot of the young players, he's relied on his athleticism to score the ball.. Sounds familar no? Tyreke anyone? His shot mechanics aren't bad, but he's inconsistent at repeating the shot the same way everytime. Strangely enough, his midrange shot has plenty of arc, but his three point shot tends to be a little flat. All correctable.

Marquis is a tenacious defender and has the quick feet to be a very good defender at the next level. He's extremely quick lateraly and has great instincts. He's also blessed with an excellent wingspan and quick hands. He should be interesting to watch at Kentucky. He's a fierce competitor with a lot of flash and confidence. Quite different from Knight, who was a better outside shooter, but always seemed somewhat reserved, and sometimes appeared somewhat timid. No right or wrong there, just different.

Marquis has tremendous upside, so the sky is the limit for him. He's exactly the type of PG many NBA teams are looking for. Explosive, with terrific ballhandling and passing ability. He's still raw is a few areas, but as I said, he's way ahead of where his brother was at this time.

At the moment I'm having trouble embeding videos. I haven't figured out the problem yet. It could have something to do with my living in Mexico. But here's a link. If I get the problem fixed later, I'll get back to embeding.

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/marquis-teague
 
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bajaden

Hall of Famer
#5
Kyle Wiltjer: 22nd ranked highschool player in the nation. 6'9.25" in shoes, 224 pounds, 7'0" wingspan, all measurements from the Nike Hoops Classic. Power Forward. Wiltjer is the last of the Kentucky recruits, and while he's the least touted of the four, he's still a top 25 highschool player. Lets just say that if Stanford or Cal had recruited him, he would be the PR highlight of the team. His father is Greg Wiltjer, who played for Oregon St, I believe, and also played in the NBA. Since his father is 6'11" tall, its possible that Kyle still has some growing to do.

As with most young players who have a father that played in the NBA, he's extremely skilled. He's a very good post player with excellent footwork. He has a throwback hookshot that he can shoot with either hand. He's excellent with ball fakes and double pumps, and just about every trick you can think of around the basket. Its rare to see such a young player as skilled as he is. In some ways he reminds me of Kevin Love. Not in stature, but in his skill level. Like Love, he's a very good passer, and while not the rebounder Love is, he's still a good rebounder, using technique and fundamentals to get the job done.

What makes Wiltjer interesting from an offensive point of view, is that he's a very good shooter all the way out beyond the 3 pt line. He didn't shoot that well in the Nike Hoops Classic, but it was probably the toughest competition he ever played against. He wasn't on the US team by the way. He holds dual citizenship with both the US and Canada, so he was playing on the internationl team. In his senior year he averaged 19.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 2.5 APG. He led Jesuit high in Beaverton Oregon to 3 consecutive state titles. As a testament to his 3 pt shooting, he won the 3 pt contest at the McDonalds All American Game.

Defensively, he played well at the highschool level, but in college and eventually in the NBA, he'll have a more difficult time of it. He's not a bad athlete, but he doesn't have the quickest lateral movement, and will have some trouble staying in front of the quicker PF's in the league. He's one of those kids that spends a lot of time watching game film, even at the highschool level, and one of his idols is Larry Bird, who he also watches a lot of game film on. He has good instincts on defense, and if he puts in the work, which he seems willing to do, he could at the very least be a decent to good defender.

He's not a player, about who your going to say, the sky's the limit. But he's someone that will be a solid role player in the NBA at the very least, and could be someone thats your second or third option. Too early to tell yet, but he's definitely someone to keep your eye on. He's also stated that he intends to be a four year player at Kentucky. We'll see! Sometimes its hard to ignore seeing yourself in the top five on the draft boards. Of course thats not where he is right now, but who knows what the future holds.

You can see why Kentucky is ranked number one at the moment. With the addition of Anthony Davis, Michael Gilchrist, Marquis Teague, Kyle Wiltjer, and with Terrence Jones and Darius Miller returning, they have an all star lineup. How it all jells remains to be seen. But one thing is for sure. Davis, Gilchrist and Teague are all known for being outstanding defenders. Jones played excellent defense at times last season, and has the potential to be a very good defender in the NBA. So Kentucky has the potential to be a great defensive team as well as an offensive team. That smells of final four to me at the very least. Next up James McAdoo and North Carolina... Here's a video of Wiltjer. Still haven't figured out whats wrong with my embeding..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OthoYaR_Os&feature=related
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#6
James McAdoo: Commited to North Carolina. 8th ranked highschool player in the nation. 6'8.5" in shoes, 223 pounds, 7'1" wingspan. Power Forward. Measurements from the Nike Hoops Classic. James is the nephew of NBA Great, Bob McAdoo. While a little udersized at a half inch over 6'8", he does have a big wingspan, and as Jerry Reynolds has stated many times, you don't rebound with the top of your head. McAdoo is a very good athlete, but a deceptive one. He reminds me a little of Blake Griffin or James harden, in that he will just seem to be floating along at a certain speed, when suddenly he'll just explode to the basket for a dunk, or explode for a rebound out of nowhere.

Offensively, he's very skilled around the basket. He has good footwork, good hands, and can score with either hand. He's also a very good finisher on fast breaks, and will remind you a little of Amare Stoudemire where he just seems to always be in the right place to finish. He's also a good rebounder, who rebounds out of his area, and while he uses his athleticism to a large degee, he's also fundamentally sound in blocking out. He has a nice jumpshot with range out beyond the 3 pt line. However he's inconsistent with it, especially from beyond the arc. But all in all, he has a lot of offensive tools for a player this young. With hard work, he should be a very good offensive player.

Defensively, at least at the highschool level, he's very good. However in one of the highschool all star games I watched, I don't remember which one, he struggled a little against the taller, and more talented competition. Not unexpected, and in the next all star game, which I believe was the Jordan Brand game, he was much better. He's a very good weakside defender and shotblocker, coming out of nowhere to block shots. He's a good man defender, but he definitely needs to put on more muscle and weight to compete in the NBA. Shouldn't be a problem since he has a nice frame with wide shoulders. The kid has great instincts and a high basketball IQ, and with his athletic ability, there's no reason he can't be a very good defender down the road.

Two areas he needs to work on are his ballhandling and passing. He's not bad at either, and in the open court his ballhandling is more than adequate. But in traffic it needs improving. At times he makes some very nice passes, so he has the talent there. At North Carolina he'll be playing with a lot more talent around him, so he'll have more passing opportunitys.

He's a kid with a good motor. He's a blue collar guy thats not afraid to do the dirty work to get a win. He's not flashy, he just gets the job done. His floor is higher than a lot players ceiling. So it wouldn't surprise me to see him in the top five of most mock draft boards. It will be interesting to see how many minutes he gets with Zeller and Henson both back this next season at North Carolina. He should be fun to watch. Here's a little video of him.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EE19Abj9g_Q
 
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bajaden

Hall of Famer
#8
P.J. Hairston: Commited to North Carolina. 13th ranked highschool player in the nation. 6'5" in shoes, 220 pounds. Shooting Guard. Measurements from the Jordan Brand game. I will admit that I've only seen him play twice. Once by accident in a highschool game, and also in the Jordan Brand Classic. He susposedly played in the Nike Hoops Summit game, but I don't remember seeing him. Hairston is commited to North Carolina. He was heavily recruited by Duke, but everytime he recieved a letter from Duke, it had his name spelled wrong (P.J. Harrison). He says that determined his decision of selecting North Carolina over Duke. I have no idea how true that is, but the spelling part is true.

Hairston is an outstanding deep shooter with range beyond the 3 pt line. He has good fundamentals and always seems to get squared up. He also has a very quick release. The strange part of his game is that he's very good at going to the basket and finishing, with very good leaping ability. But he essentially has little or no mid-range game. Most of his takes to the basket that I saw, came almost exclusively off fast breaks. I don't recall him once taking anyone off the dribble and going to the basket. Not saying he can't do it, but I didn't see it. His handles looked OK to me. As I said, he can play above the basket and was the recepient of several alleyoops.

Hairston appears to be a good athlete. He has a stocky build, (think Mitch Richmond) and rumors are that he has to battle his weight a little. I saw him make several nice passes, and he seems to have good basketball IQ. So I'd say that if he's able to develop or improve his mid-range game, and refine his ballhandling and passing skills, he's be a very good offensive player.

Defensively, I have mostly a blank. There's not a lot of defense played in all star games, Biyombo being the exception and not the rule. I didn't see much defense from Hairston. From what I did see, I'd say he doesn't have good lateral quickness, and that his overall footspeed is about average. I did see a nice weakside blocked shot from him, so maybe there's more there than he displayed. I don't know his wingspan, but I'd say that it looks about average as well. So his defensive abilities are something I'll be looking for this coming season.

Hairston is a smart player that seems to know what he can and cannot do. He already has things that he does very well, so he's not just a raw play with potential. How high his ceiling is, I don't know. He's going into a good program and if he puts in the work, he could have a nice future in the NBA.

His senior year he averaged 25.6 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 4.7 APG. Here's a short video of Hairston.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uaa_WEbHUO0
 
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bajaden

Hall of Famer
#9
So what we have so for is Kentucky at Number one with Terrence Jones and Darius Miller returning, along with new additons in PF, Anthony Davis, SF, Michael Gilchrist, PG, Marquis Teague, and PF, Kyle Wiltjer. This team should be a lock for the final four, and a possible championship.

At number two I have North Carolina. Some have Duke ranked number two. I just happen to like North Carolina better. North Carolina would be a formidable team with just its returning players. Harrison Barnes at SF. Ty Zeller at Center, Kendall Marshall at PG. John Henson at PF or Center. And Reggic Bullock at SG. And now add James McAdoo and P.J. Hairston into the mix, and you have one hell of a team with depth.

Next up, Duke, who I have at number three in the nation. They added the number one highschool player in the nation in Austin Rivers.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#10
Austin Rivers: Commited to Duke. Number one ranked highschool player in the nation. 6'4" in shoes, 198 pounds, with a 6'8" wingspan. Measurements from the Nike Hoops Summit. By the way, when I use the highschool rankings, I'm talking about the 2011 class, and my own personal consensus from all the different rankings. ESPN, Rivals, Scout etc. Austin is the son of Boston Celtics coach Doc Rivers. The biggest question about Rivers, is what is he? A PG or a SG, or a combo guard. One thing is for sure. He's definitely a scoring guard. His senior year he averaged 28.8 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 2.2 APG, and 2.0 SPG.

Rivers can score anytime from anywhere on the floor. He's a terrific deep shooter, either off the dribble or as a spot up shooter. His nickname should be Ice, because he's fearless when it comes to taking the last shot of the game. He may be the best 3 pt shooter in this group of incoming freshmen. He played in the FIBA U18 championships and set a record by shooting 60% from behind the 3 pt line. In the semi-final game, he hit 9 three's in a row. His team went on the win the gold medal, going undefeated.

At 6'4" in shoes, he's a little undersized for a SG, but certainly tall enough for a league with plenty of SG's in the 6'3" range, including our own Marcus Thorton. He also has a great mid-range game with everything from pullups to floaters, or driving to the basket. He's extremely creative around the basket.
He has outstanding handles with a wicked crossover, and is able to get his shot whenever he wants it. He's also added a new element to his game, by learning to move without the ball. In short, he's a freaking scoring machine. And he thinks no one on earth can stop him. I like the confidence, even if its unrealistic.

Sounds good so far, doesn't it? Well, he's not without warts. Off the dribble he will primarily go to his right. Take that away from him, and you'll probably see him settle for a jumper. Not that he can't make it, but it makes him easier to defend. He's most dangerous when once in the lane. Deny him that, and you take away one of his strengths. Its minor, but notable. Rivers has shown the ability to make some very creative passes. So you can see the possibility of his playing the point. He certainly has the skills to play PG, and I try to keep an open mind with players this young. But I think he'll need to change his entire mindset. There are times when it appears, that he doesn't realize he has teammates on the floor. He's so focused on scoring, its as if he has blinders on.

Offensively, he's so talented, you certainly don't want to take the ball out of his hands. You don't want to waste his offensive talent by turning him into something he's not. I could easily see him becoming a great combo guard. His idol is Dwayne Wade. He has a ways to go on the defensive side of the ball if he wants to emulate Wade. Rivers has the potential to be a good defender. He even said, "I can play good defense when I want to". Thats an exact quote. Probably not what you want to hear from a player, but at least its honest, and it was said, when he was talking about what he needed to do to be a great player. He was the one that brought up defense.

He has quick feet, and gets his share of steals. But he does have a tendecy to overplay passing lanes, and gets burnt at times. He has good leaping ability, but not great leaping ability, and gets his occasional blocked shot. So its just a matter of putting in the effort. If he's willing to do that, he'll end up being one of the top players in the next draft. There's just not much he can't do from a skills point of view. Athleticly, he's a good athlete, but not an above average athlete. He's more quick than fast. Duke is a good choice for him. It'll teach him more discipline, and help him develop the other parts of his game. Like sharing the ball. A little dose of humility would help as well. He should be an exciting player to watch. Here's a little video of him.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIBZgyspCdI&feature=related
 
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#11
Anthony Davis: 2nd ranked highschool player in the nation. 6'9.50", 208 pounds, with a 7'4" wingspan (measured at Nike Hoop Summit), Power forward. Davis is a terrific athlete that runs the floor like a deer. By the end of his sophmore year, no one had heard of him. Depending on which account you read, he grew somewhere between 7 to 10 inches between the end of his sophmore year, and the beginning of his senior year. Regardless, he ended up at 6'9.50" in shoes. Also measured at the Nike Hoop Summit. So what you have is another one of those 6'10" (for typing purposes) players that is learning to play in a new body. Our own Jason Thompson is an example of such a player. In Davis case, he seems to have brought all his guard skills along with him. He handles the ball extremely well for a big man, and is a very good passer.
I came accross the Nike Hoop Summit game on ESPNU a few weeks ago and Davis just jumped out of the screen at me. He was dominating at both ends of the floor and the first thing I thought of was why haven't I heard of him and where will he be playing next year. As soon as I found out he was going to Kentucky (along with Gilchrist) to join Terrance Jones, I knew that they would be the team to watch this year.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#12
I came accross the Nike Hoop Summit game on ESPNU a few weeks ago and Davis just jumped out of the screen at me. He was dominating at both ends of the floor and the first thing I thought of was why haven't I heard of him and where will he be playing next year. As soon as I found out he was going to Kentucky (along with Gilchrist) to join Terrance Jones, I knew that they would be the team to watch this year.
Yep, Kentucky should be very good again this year. Davis is another one of those guys that went from being a guard to a PF in around 15 months. That 15 months will earn him a lot of money. He was also very good in the Jordan Brand Classic game.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#13
Michael Gbinije: Commited to Duke - 35th ranked highschool player in the nation. 6'6", 210 pounds. His highschool coach reports that he's now 6'8", but nothing official. Gbinije, (pronounced Been-uh-jay) as a senior averaged 23 PPG, 7 RPG, and 5 APG. He's likely to be a four year player for Duke. He did play in the Jordan Brand Classic, but I couldn't find his stats.

He's a very smooth player, and a very good shooter out to about 20 feet. He's actually a little better outside shooter than a midrange shooter, but I'm quibbling here. He's also a very good finisher at the basket, and can finish with either hand. He's not a bad ballhandler, but it needs to improve, which would also improve his ability to get to the basket. Developing a good crossover would help his first step, and make him a better one on one player offensively. He's a very good catch and shoot player. He's a smart, unselfish player, and a willing passer. He never seems to force anything. He just lets the game come to him.

Unfortunately sometimes he waits too long. There are times when he needs to be more aggressive offensively. I don't want to say he disappears, but he seems to float at times. He's very good on the break, slashing to the basket. At the highschool level, he was a very good rebounder. But in my opinion he was what I call a rebounder of convienence. He just took what was there. I don't think he'll be as successful in college unless he works on his rebounding fundamentals. He's not going to be one of the biggest guys on the court anymore. Even if he did grow to 6'8". Like a lot of highschool players, he needs to get stronger. He has a nice frame, so he should be able to carry more weight easily.

Defensively he was pretty good in highschool. Once again, I think he has his work cut out for him. He has pretty good hops, and is a very good athlete. But his footwork needs to be improved in man defense. He relies too much on his athletic ability, which once again, won't be enough at the college level. I don't want to denigrate his efforts. He definitely has potential defensively, and he seems more than willing to put in the work. And under coach K, I fully expect him to reach whatever potential he has.

He improved every year in highschool, and if he stays all four years at Duke, he could be a player that gets picked as high as the lottery, but definitely in the first round. Time will tell. He should be a solid addition to an already strong Duke team. Here's a little video of him.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLMgrPlJDEw
 
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bajaden

Hall of Famer
#14
With the Adidas Nations Camp going on, I thought I'd do an update on some of the future prospects from the US and International arena. Andre Drummond is there, and he's dominating. I'll have more on him later in an article. I'm including a video of him. He's still very raw, but remember while watching, that he's 6'11" and 285 pounds. The last big man that came onto the scene that was that athletic and that big was Greg Oden.

http://www.examiner.com/nba-draft-i...011-pangos-all-american-camp-highlights-video
 
#17
Also at the Adidas Nations Camp is New Zealand big man Steven Adams. I've included an article with a video. He's only 16 years old and has been playing basketball for 4 years. Basketball isn't the sport of choice in New Zealand. He's already commited to Pittsburg in the class of 2012.

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/adidas-Nations-Player-Profile-Steven-Adams-3535/
I was going to ask if you had heard anything about Steven Adams. I have heard some good reports about him coming out of the Adidas Nations Camp. I hear that he is very athletic and 7-ft tall. I hope there will be some video of him that can be seen.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#19
Quinn Cook: Commited to Duke. 38th ranked highschool player in the nation. 6'0" in shoes, 177 pounds, 6'1" wingspan. Measurements from the Nike Hoops Summit. Cook is an excellent and creative passer. He has very good court vision and at times will amaze you with one of his no look passes. While I look at him as more of a pass first PG, he's quite capable of scoring the ball. He has a decent outside shot, but is inconsistent with it. His mid-range shot is pretty solid, and he is outstanding at shooting or passing off the pick and roll. He can score around the basket with either hand, and in a variety of ways. He's also very good at driving and dishing. He can be a lot of fun to watch.

He's a tough kid that plays with a lot of confidence. Almost cocky! So far he's proven to be a good and willing defender. But thats at the highschool level. It'll be interesting to see how his skills translate to college, where its rumored that he intends to stay all four years at Duke. We'll see! He's a decent to good athlete, but doesn't have the quickness or explosiveness of a Marquis Teague. Nor does he have the wicked crossover dribble that he needs to create space. He's a good ballhandler, but once again, not at the same level as some of the elite ballhandlers. At six foot in shoes, and with a somewhat average wingspan at six foot one inch, he'll be at a height disadvantage as well. By comparison, Teague is just under 6'2" in shoes, and has a 6'6.5" wingspan.

As I stated, Quinn has great court vision, and excellent basketball IQ. He has a fiery attitude. If he can improve his decision making, and inconsistency, he has a chance to be pretty good. He's certainly skilled enough. His average athleticism and lack of height may keep him from ever being one of the top PG's in college, but I wouldn't bet against him. His senior year he averaged 19.1 PPG, 10.9 APG, 2.5 SPG. Here's a little video of him.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0l4YHJ5zo08
 
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bajaden

Hall of Famer
#20
I recorded all the Adidas Nation games the last two days. Last night I watched the USA 2012 team play the USA 2013 team. These games are broken down into teams by country and age. So this was essentially the 16 year olds against the 17 year olds. It was a good game with the 16 year olds leading by 17 points at the half. In the second half the 17 year olds came back and finally put the game away. I'll get into the different players later, but I did want to comment on Andre Drummond, the 6'11", 285 pound C/PF.

If this kid is willing to put in the work, he can be very very good. He's extremely athletic, and already has quite a few tools. He made some very nice passes, including a couple of 3 quarter court outlet passes. He rebounds the ball very well, and he defends very well, including the ability to block shots. He showed the ability to shoot a few 15 foot jumpers. A couple of which he forced, to no avail. My biggest concern, and its not a new one, is that at times he appears to float and watch the game. It seems, that if he's not involved in the play being run, he loses interest.

This happened in the first half, which is part of the reason his team went down by 17. When he got back in the game, he was the Drummond that everyone came to see. I don't mean to pick on him, but this is nothing new. In some of his highschool games where the competition wasn't that good, Drummond would lose interest. One of the things the coaches at the Nike Global have been pounding into his head is that he has to bring his A game everynight, regardless of the competition. The kid is loaded with talent and his ceiling is extremely high. Hopefully he can learn some self discipline.
 
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#21
Admiration

Hey Baja,
It is great to read real basketball reporting. I truly admire your dedication to keeping us informed on the future NBA players. It is enjoyable and certainly easier to follow your posts than it is to dig into these future stars myself, because I'm too lazy.
Thanks again for all your hard work.:D
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#22
Hey Baja,
It is great to read real basketball reporting. I truly admire your dedication to keeping us informed on the future NBA players. It is enjoyable and certainly easier to follow your posts than it is to dig into these future stars myself, because I'm too lazy.
Thanks again for all your hard work.:D
Your quite welcome. I'm just sharing what I enjoy. It is nice to get feedback once in a while. There are times when I think I'm talking to myself. You should hear some of the arguments I have with myself.. ;)
 
#25
I'm not a high school basketball fan whatsoever, but since we generally know so little about them, I've devised markers which tend to be noticeable trends for NBA success. Baja or anyone else, which of these players would you classify as 1) SF/PF tweeners, 2) PF/C tweeners, 3) undersized SG shooters (not scorers) with questionable PG skills, 4) shooting SGs who waste their athleticism, and 5) have attitude problems. These markers are the five I've narrowed down, looking at drafts 2004 and beyond, that prove to the highest bust potential among players that have enough talent to be drafted in the first round.

The most obvious is probably the attitude/work ethic problems. It doesn't matter to what degree, if you have those problems, that tends to severely hinder one in reaching their potential. I mean, Michael Beasley, Shawne Williams, Drew Gooden, Sean Williams, Javaris Crittenton, Patrick O'Bryant, OJ Mayo?, Rashad McCants and Julius Hodge are just a hodgepodge of names in my first round list, but many of these flamed out and others are just underachieving relative to talent level.

Probably the second trait leading to high bust potential is tweener status. Either SF/PF or PF/C hybrid. For the first, is there a forward who can't shoot/pass well enough or lacks requisite height, and for the second, is the big man lacking enough footspeed for the first and height for the second? I had Marvin Williams, Jeff Green and Shelden Williams in my top five of each of those drafts. Guess what? All three of them, while reasonable NBA cog players, have faaar from justified their draft position. Other names in my first round that could be lumped in here include Drew Gooden, Ike Diogu, and Joe Alexander.

The other ones have greater randomness, but there's trends--I doubt undersized SG shooters (specifically, not scorers) with few passing skills. Daniel Gibson (who I really overranked in my board) and Quincy Douby come to mind. Shooting guards who waste their athleticism also settle into role players (OJ Mayo, Daequan Cook).

So, any of these high school players are of this mold? Just wondering. The draft is such a crapshoot there's going to be hyped HS'ers who inevitably will fail to live up to their potential. It's just made easier if they fit into any one of these five slots.
 
#26
I'm not a high school basketball fan whatsoever, but since we generally know so little about them, I've devised markers which tend to be noticeable trends for NBA success. Baja or anyone else, which of these players would you classify as 1) SF/PF tweeners, 2) PF/C tweeners, 3) undersized SG shooters (not scorers) with questionable PG skills, 4) shooting SGs who waste their athleticism, and 5) have attitude problems. These markers are the five I've narrowed down, looking at drafts 2004 and beyond, that prove to the highest bust potential among players that have enough talent to be drafted in the first round.

The most obvious is probably the attitude/work ethic problems. It doesn't matter to what degree, if you have those problems, that tends to severely hinder one in reaching their potential. I mean, Michael Beasley, Shawne Williams, Drew Gooden, Sean Williams, Javaris Crittenton, Patrick O'Bryant, OJ Mayo?, Rashad McCants and Julius Hodge are just a hodgepodge of names in my first round list, but many of these flamed out and others are just underachieving relative to talent level.

Probably the second trait leading to high bust potential is tweener status. Either SF/PF or PF/C hybrid. For the first, is there a forward who can't shoot/pass well enough or lacks requisite height, and for the second, is the big man lacking enough footspeed for the first and height for the second? I had Marvin Williams, Jeff Green and Shelden Williams in my top five of each of those drafts. Guess what? All three of them, while reasonable NBA cog players, have faaar from justified their draft position. Other names in my first round that could be lumped in here include Drew Gooden, Ike Diogu, and Joe Alexander.

The other ones have greater randomness, but there's trends--I doubt undersized SG shooters (specifically, not scorers) with few passing skills. Daniel Gibson (who I really overranked in my board) and Quincy Douby come to mind. Shooting guards who waste their athleticism also settle into role players (OJ Mayo, Daequan Cook).

So, any of these high school players are of this mold? Just wondering. The draft is such a crapshoot there's going to be hyped HS'ers who inevitably will fail to live up to their potential. It's just made easier if they fit into any one of these five slots.
I think it would be tough to make those kinds of judgements with most HSers. Most (99%) of them are not fully developed yet. They will still grow & fill out. I also think it is hard to judge work ethic with a lot of HS players. Few of them realize what a true work ethic is because it comes easy for them. I don't know how many players I have seen out of shape or slightly overweight entering college (for an athlete), only to see them come back their sophmore year looking completely different (Blake Griffin is a good recent example of that).

I think the coverage of HS players has become so much better in recent years that it has become easier to have an idea of who will be the best players coming out every year. However, history has proved that it isn't an exact science. There are always those who are overlooked or are late bloomers, and there will always be those who never live up to thier potential for whatever reason.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#27
I'm not a high school basketball fan whatsoever, but since we generally know so little about them, I've devised markers which tend to be noticeable trends for NBA success. Baja or anyone else, which of these players would you classify as 1) SF/PF tweeners, 2) PF/C tweeners, 3) undersized SG shooters (not scorers) with questionable PG skills, 4) shooting SGs who waste their athleticism, and 5) have attitude problems. These markers are the five I've narrowed down, looking at drafts 2004 and beyond, that prove to the highest bust potential among players that have enough talent to be drafted in the first round.

The most obvious is probably the attitude/work ethic problems. It doesn't matter to what degree, if you have those problems, that tends to severely hinder one in reaching their potential. I mean, Michael Beasley, Shawne Williams, Drew Gooden, Sean Williams, Javaris Crittenton, Patrick O'Bryant, OJ Mayo?, Rashad McCants and Julius Hodge are just a hodgepodge of names in my first round list, but many of these flamed out and others are just underachieving relative to talent level.

Probably the second trait leading to high bust potential is tweener status. Either SF/PF or PF/C hybrid. For the first, is there a forward who can't shoot/pass well enough or lacks requisite height, and for the second, is the big man lacking enough footspeed for the first and height for the second? I had Marvin Williams, Jeff Green and Shelden Williams in my top five of each of those drafts. Guess what? All three of them, while reasonable NBA cog players, have faaar from justified their draft position. Other names in my first round that could be lumped in here include Drew Gooden, Ike Diogu, and Joe Alexander.

The other ones have greater randomness, but there's trends--I doubt undersized SG shooters (specifically, not scorers) with few passing skills. Daniel Gibson (who I really overranked in my board) and Quincy Douby come to mind. Shooting guards who waste their athleticism also settle into role players (OJ Mayo, Daequan Cook).

So, any of these high school players are of this mold? Just wondering. The draft is such a crapshoot there's going to be hyped HS'ers who inevitably will fail to live up to their potential. It's just made easier if they fit into any one of these five slots.
Well you covered a lot of ground there. To start with, you and I approach looking at talent differently. But in most cases, we end up with the same or at least similar conclusions. There is no right or wrong as long as the final judgement is the correct one. You tend to look for negatives, and I look for positives. Of course if there aren't enough positives, all your left with are the negatives.

When I judge players, the younger they are, the more slack I'm going to give them. For obvious reasons. They're a long way from being a finished product, and in a fair amount of the cases, they still have some growing to do. So its hard to look at a 15 or 16 year old and label him a tweener. Look at Anthony Davis. Two years ago he was 6'2", and now he's 6'10". So he went from being a tweener PG/SG to being a PF or a center. Of the three players you mentioned in Marvin Williams, Jeff Green, and Sheldon Williams, I never had Sheldon Williams ranked that high. I didn't like his game that much, and I thought most of his success was team related. Take him off that team and put him somewhere else, and he's just not that good. Marvin Williams defects were skill related, and still are. I like Jeff Green, and I think he's the best player of the three. Yes he's a little undersized for the PF position, and he's a little slow for the SF position. But he can play, and in the right place he can be productive.

I do understand where your coming from, and I'll try and list some players that you can play around with. Andre Drummond is one such player. I just watched him play a couple of games in the Adidas Nation games. I had a chance to see a couple of his highschool games as well. His problem seems to be motivation. He'll just float in games and seem disinterested at times. Considering that he's currently ranked as the number two player in the 2012 class, thats a little scarey. To make matters worse, he was set back a year in highschool, so according to the rules, he could be eligible for the next draft, since his original graduating class is starting college this coming season.

The upside of course is that you'd be drafting a guy thats 6'10"/6'11" depending on who you talk to, and weighs 285 pounds. He runs like a deer, he can jump out of the building and he's as strong as an ox. When he turns it on, he's simply a man amongst boys. Add to the mix, that his skill level is limited for the most part to just around the basket. However, he is a good passer, handles the ball fairly well, and has good hands. Question is, if he lacks movitation, will he ever develop those necessary skills? He's a hell of a teaser talent though.
 
#28
Telemachus, I actually disagree on the attitude front. I bet in HS you can at least see some simmering attitude problems on the surface. I don't know if anyone knows Davon Jefferson in USC, was a bit of a hardhead and his attitude did him in. Jereme Richmond of Illinois last draft, had attitude problems. Shawne Williams. Beasley came into the draft as a freshman. Crittenton as well. I know it's hard to tell unless they actually do something, but in HS a lot of this could manifest itself in bad body language and general frustration on the court. In fact, I always wonder if a player, in his scouting report's weaknesses section, has the words "bad attitude" or the like on his page, whether that should knock them 20 spots down the draft. It's actually a real killer in terms of talent, and often leads to unnecessary problems for the team. I know we're not psychiatrists and we can't prognosticate this stuff, but I'm not surprised why teams do attitude checks on players. Still many of them have talent which overrides their concerns, which is why we see so many underachievers/busts on the upper end of the draft, however.

Baja, I look at talent both ways. I actually have a list of indicators which show success at the NBA level, but it's more based on athleticism. Rondo, Iggy, and Rose exemplify that, even though for some reason I'm still not a fan of Rose. Just something about his game. Also, and this is an interesting one, I think Andre Miller-PGs (strong 6'3" PGs who can have that shifty game and can really pass the ball) do well at the next level; Deron Williams, Ramon Sessions, and Darius Morris all had paltry stats IMO at college, but the first two have found success in the league, and in D-Will's case we know what happened (incidentally D-Will really rose his stock as a workout warrior--before that he was a mid to late 1st round pick). Undersized scoring PFs or undersized rebounding PFs (David Lee, Craig Smith, Paul Millsap) also do well, especially if they're unheralded and in the 2nd round. And not all tweeners are bad--in fact, I think less heralded forward hybrids do better than their hyped counterparts (Thad Young, Wilson Chandler).

In fact, I really think guys who impose their athleticism on the game do really well, and I remember back when high schoolers could enter the draft we'd see a slew of athletic freaks enter--we'd have JR Smith, Josh Smith, Gerald Green, etc. I still believe that if Gerald Green didn't have immaturity/attitude problems he'd be a serviceable NBA player today. That's why attitude is a killer. But if a high schooler has a sick vert leap, great lateral quickness, or a long wingspan, or any combination of these, and really can rebound/block shots, and is incredibly motivated, he pretty much has it all to be a top 5 pick. We don't see too many undersized scoring PFs in high school come to the league after a year (many are 3 or 4 year college players), and we do see tweeners but they probably have to have lateral quickness and be very athletic to succeed (Thad Young/Chandler have it, Green/Beasley don't). That's why Young/Chandler were able to leave by 2 years, and guys like Shelden have to leave by 4 years.

By the way, the reason why I'm looking for warts is because of the premise of this article: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...-as-a-cautionary-tale-for-todays-allamericans. Your McDonald's All-American rank doesn't mean a thing. The point is, every year there's going to be players that bust out in college or in the NBA, if they make it before their problems are spotted, due to tweener status, attitude problems, etc. It's inevitable. For example, my opinion on Perry Jones really changed after 1 year in Baylor. That guy was hyped to the heavens out of HS. I really, really question his mental makeup now. In fact, I might be in the real minority, but I even put him in the mid-2nd round of the 2012 draft. I'm really that off on him. He didn't even show much to me at the college level. Too many disappearing acts. And unfortunately, stuff like this is commonplace.
 
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#29
Telemachus, I actually disagree on the attitude front. I bet in HS you can at least see some simmering attitude problems on the surface. I don't know if anyone knows Davon Jefferson in USC, was a bit of a hardhead and his attitude did him in. Jereme Richmond of Illinois last draft, had attitude problems. Shawne Williams. Beasley came into the draft as a freshman. Crittenton as well. I know it's hard to tell unless they actually do something, but in HS a lot of this could manifest itself in bad body language and general frustration on the court. In fact, I always wonder if a player, in his scouting report's weaknesses section, has the words "bad attitude" or the like on his page, whether that should knock them 20 spots down the draft. It's actually a real killer in terms of talent, and often leads to unnecessary problems for the team. I know we're not psychiatrists and we can't prognosticate this stuff, but I'm not surprised why teams do attitude checks on players. Still many of them have talent which overrides their concerns, which is why we see so many underachievers/busts on the upper end of the draft, however.
I would agree with you about attitude to a certain degree. A young person with a bad attitude tends to stay that way most of the time (or so it seems). I do think you have look further though. For instance, I think a lot of teenagers that have anger issues tend to get control of them as they mature (would consider that different than attitude). I also think that work ethic is something that a lot of young athletes haven't developed in HS simply because they are so much better than everyone else, they never had to work at it. When they get to college, the gap between them and the rest gets a whole lot smaller and helps them to realize that they might have to put in some work. Obviously, that doesn't always happen, but I think you get my point.

I just wouldn't have wanted someone to make a judgement on how I would be for the rest of my life based on what they saw me do when I was 16 or 17, so I hate to try to look too deep at athletes at that age. I would rather look at their skills, altheticism, and overall potenial while waiting a couple of years to look deeper.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#30
Its late, so I'm going to keep this short. A difficult thing for me. You make some excellent points, and its nice to see that you look for some of the same things I look for in a player. Its not that I don't take notice of the warts as you say, I just try and balance them against the positives, potential, and to some extent the age of the player. I believe that whats between the ears is just as important as the physical abilities. And the mental part can manifest itself in a variety of ways.

I'll use DeMarcus Cousins as a prime example. On one level, mentally, he's everything your looking for. Great basketball IQ. Quick learner, confidence and desire to win. But on the other level, very immature, stubborn at times, quick temper, and lack of respect for authority figures. And at a third level, great off the court with people. Loves kids and donates time to helping kids programs. Gets along well with teammates and is generally well liked socially. Its almost a description of a Dr. Jeckel and Mr. Hyde.

Add in that he's extremely talented, and it almost seems to come naturally without the effort others have to put in to reach the same level. If they can even reach his level. In his case, I thought his talent and potential outweighed the warts. So far so good, but the jury is still out. But there's no denying the risk in someone like him. I don't have to pay him, so I'm fine with the risk. On the other hand, I wasn't as excited about Beasley. I thought he was talented, but for starters, I wasn't sure what he was at the next level. When I saw him get outplayed by a then unknown from Rider, JT, he made a serious drop on my list that year. An then when you added in some of his antics, I had serious reservations about him.

Cousins problems seemed to stem from immaturity, and lack of temper control. Both things that are correctable, or at least can be minimized. In Beasley's case, there were rumors of drugs being involved, and possible mental problems. Drugs are a giant red flag to me. I promised to keep this short, so I better wrap it up. Let me just touch on athleticism. I love athletic players. But its not the be all, end all with me. If I see an athletic player that also has developed skills, I'm all over it. But they're very hard to find. Its no accident that a lot of very skilled players are average athlete's. They can't just rely on their athleticism to get by. When I see a very athletic player that never develops the needed skill level, it makes me want to cry at the waste. Guys like Green and Tyrus Thomas just drive me nuts. By the way, I'm a big fan of Andre Miller.