I would agree that only the top thirty or so have a realistic chance of making it in the NBA, but that only applies to the top thirty in their senior year. The trick is trying to figure that out in the freshman class. You have to remember that college's get commitments out of some of these players in their sophmore year of highschool. Every college out there wants to get their hands on the top players, and the sooner you can strike, the better your chance. Unfortunately a player in the top thirty in his sophmore year, may end up being in the bottom 30 of the top 100 his senior year. Your probably still getting a productive player, but not necessarily a game changer.
I liked all of the US players you had listed. I thought the Kings got a steal in Tyler Honeycutt where they drafted him. I'm not a big Howland fan as far as player development goes on the offensive side of the ball. But his players all seem to thrive once in the NBA. I suspect Honeycutt will follow that pattern. I didn't get a chance to see the international players like I did the US players. Something I'm working to rectify in the future. However when I did get a chance to see Valanciunas, I was very impressed with him. Singleton was a favorite of mine, and if you play him at the SF spot I think you'll have a defensive all star on your hands. I think he lacks the feel to be a good offensive player, but he'll be good enough to justify being on the floor. If Burks can buckle down and refine his shooting and passing skills, along with increasing his defensive intensity, he can be a star in the league. If not, he'll be a good player, but thats it. I obviously liked Fredette more than you did, but then I probably saw him play more than any other player in the draft, and thats saying a lot.
I'm also a big fan of Terrence Jones, the Jones that did live up to expectations last season. I still look at him as a SF, and think thats the position where he would be the most comfortable. I think he has the ability and strength to be an Artest like player with a little more athleticism. Of the freshman coming in this next season, my favorite is Michael Gilchrist, a 6'7" SF with a 6'11" wingspan. The kid is just fun to watch. He's dedicated, extremely athletic, with great Basketball IQ, and a player that takes pride in his defense as well as being a good offensive player. Biggest weakness is his outside shot. Other than that, he has all the tools and the attitude to be a star at any level he plays at. I would also suggest you take a look at Marquis Teague, Jeff's younger brother, and the better player of the two. He should be the number one ranked PG in the draft by seasons end. Terrific ballhandler, with terrific quickness. He's a genuine ankle breaker. At just under 6'2" and with a 6'7" wingspan, and with creative passing ability, that will give you your share of wow moments, he will be fun to watch. Kentucky is stocked this season.
Will Robbie Hummel make it through an entire season? He's a talented kid. John Jenkins is another one of my favorites. I can definitely see him in the NBA. Might be nothing more than a good role player, but I can see him playing a BJax type of role somewhere. By the way, one of your favorites, Perry Jones, is going to have some competition this next season from incoming freshman, Quincy Miller, a player I like quite a bit. Another guy to watch is the slighly undersized PF, James McAdoo, who although, only 6'8.5" in shoes, has that big wingspan of 7'1" going for him. Almost all undersized PF's that have been successful have that long wingspan that makes up for the lack of height. The fact that McAdoo is a good athlete, and is very skilled doesn't hurt either. Geneticaly he's a can't miss, since his uncle is HOFer Bob McAdoo.
Of course all this is nothing more than speculation at this point. Thats what the games are for aren't they? A place for me to go window shopping..
Anyway, I'm back to Duke and Marshall Plumlee..