Future of Vlade

[Gguod]

Can we just appreciate that we seem to have some stability, a positive vibe with all the kids that are here, and flexibility to wait for the right move going forward, while the West sorts itself out. I'd say we have 4 years (LeBron's contract) to work our way into a 4-5 seed and then maybe a window will open the following year. Let's play it slow.

You are right, Its good we havent overpayed for anyone (alltough Vlade sure tried). And you are right, we are rebuilding and thats why we need to take it slow. But that requires us to collect assets while "taking it slow". Unfortunately we havent used our cap space to do that. We havent signed tradeable assets and we havent rented out our space. Plus since we are taking it slow, Vlade losing our '19 pick is just dreadful.

(This is not aimed to you) I keep constantly seeing stuff like "we have enough young talent" or "our young core is good enough". No. You cant say its good enough if we have passed on opportunities to add to it. Then its not good enough. Also not having our '19 pick while we are getting ready for a 30+ win season is horrible. Those things considered, it cant be good enough.

Rebuilding is a long process. You need to/will lose for ~3 years and during that you need to accumulate assets. It requires lots of trading, taking in big contracts for 1st rounders and smaller for 2nds. Idea is that even when you are ready to start competing in playoffs, you have stacked up some extra 1sts and a lot of extra 2nds. You will start to extend your core players contracts and thus locking up your cap space but you got all those extra picks so you will get very good production in cheap long contracts that will also make your succes sustainable.

What Vlade did was opposite of that. After he traded our franchise player, it should've been asset accumulation mode for us. Instead it was "spending 40mil on vets" mode. Those type of short sighted moves really lowerded the ceiling of this team.

Now we are basically in a situation where we are in a second year (and a half) on our rebuild and we should continue accumulating assets and improving our players. Also waiting to get another high pick to add to our core. Unfortunately not having our pick now hurts us a lot and makes the rebuilding lot harder and it also lowers our ceiling.

As it has been implied in this thread by those who support Vlade, it apparently is about wanting to be positive. Thats fine but in message boards its hard to argue facts with positivity.

And I dont have anything against Vlade himself. I'm against bad decisions that hurt this franchise. Vlade has done some good moves but the bad moves he made are so much worse for a rebuilding team that its hard to see him being the long term solution as a gm. I hope he wouldve got some experience first before us getting him.

Of cource there is reason to be excited about some of our players but it really is nothing but mental gymnastics if one is claiming that "this is good enough, cant we just be excited about what we have".

 

[The_Jamal]

You are right, Its good we havent overpayed for anyone (alltough Vlade sure tried). And you are right, we are rebuilding and thats why we need to take it slow. But that requires us to collect assets while "taking it slow". Unfortunately we havent used our cap space to do that. We havent signed tradeable assets and we havent rented out our space. Plus since we are taking it slow, Vlade losing our '19 pick is just dreadful.

(This is not aimed to you) I keep constantly seeing stuff like "we have enough young talent" or "our young core is good enough". No. You cant say its good enough if we have passed on opportunities to add to it. Then its not good enough. Also not having our '19 pick while we are getting ready for a 30+ win season is horrible. Those things considered, it cant be good enough.

Rebuilding is a long process. You need to/will lose for ~3 years and during that you need to accumulate assets. It requires lots of trading, taking in big contracts for 1st rounders and smaller for 2nds. Idea is that even when you are ready to start competing in playoffs, you have stacked up some extra 1sts and a lot of extra 2nds. You will start to extend your core players contracts and thus locking up your cap space but you got all those extra picks so you will get very good production in cheap long contracts that will also make your succes sustainable.

What Vlade did was opposite of that. After he traded our franchise player, it should've been asset accumulation mode for us. Instead it was "spending 40mil on vets" mode. Those type of short sighted moves really lowerded the ceiling of this team.

Now we are basically in a situation where we are in a second year (and a half) on our rebuild and we should continue accumulating assets and improving our players. Also waiting to get another high pick to add to our core. Unfortunately not having our pick now hurts us a lot and makes the rebuilding lot harder and it also lowers our ceiling.

As it has been implied in this thread by those who support Vlade, it apparently is about wanting to be positive. Thats fine but in message boards its hard to argue facts with positivity.

And I dont have anything against Vlade himself. I'm against bad decisions that hurt this franchise. Vlade has done some good moves but the bad moves he made team are so much worse for a rebuilding team that its hard to see him being the long term solution as a gm. I hope he wouldve got some experience first before us getting him.

Of cource there is reason to be excited about some of our players but it really is nothing but mental gymnastics if one is claiming that "this is good enough, cant we just be excited about what we have".

This drives me up an absolute wall. It's not possible to have enough young talent ready to be developed. Every good team stays good because they kept the pipeline moving and continuously developed and added to their core.

I wanted to hit on a big RFA, but I'd honestly be just as fine to see us absorb Melo and take on an unprotected OKC 22 first and a 2nd in 2020 or next year or something. That would show actualy logical decision making and that even though we don't have our first round pick next season, we're still going to make good decisions for a "rebuilding" team. Which we are.

I think the biggest mistakes we could do is say "Hey, we're done, lets go win games".

 

[iowamcnabb]

Unfortunately we havent used our cap space to do that. We havent signed tradeable assets and we havent rented out our space.

We all know signing free agents other than aging vets is incredibly difficult for the Kings and we have no idea if teams are handing out 1st rounders for space. This seems to be happening less and less since teams realize how valuable draft picks are. Vlade deserves plenty of criticism but I'm not sure he owns this.

I'm more concerned with his talent evaluation. Coveting Monta Ellis, Lavine and Porter Jr. is disconcerting

 

[Gguod]

We all know signing free agents other than aging vets is incredibly difficult for the Kings and we have no idea if teams are handing out 1st rounders for space. This seems to be happening less and less since teams realize how valuable draft picks are. Vlade deserves plenty of criticism but I'm not sure he owns this.

I'm more concerned with his talent evaluation. Coveting Monta Ellis, Lavine and Porter Jr. is disconcerting

Last year Toronto gave a 1st+2nd for taking Demarre Carroll. Few days ago Denver gave up 1st and 2nd for taking expiring Faried+Arthur. Both offers Vlade couldve beat by doing the deals without the 2nds or making those 2nds a swap or something.

Obviously free agency is hard for Kings. Thats why the emphasis needs to be on asset accumulation and drafting. Draft is the best way to get good talent for a team like Kings

 

[kingsboi]

If you are unable to add any help in the free agent market you are unlikely to be successful. Geoff succeeded because he could add key free agents that helped us win: Vlade, Bobby, Scott.

that Kings team was on an upward trajectory so free agents were giving the Kings more of a chance, besides, other than Vlade, Bobby & Scott were mere role players, who no doubt helped the Kings out. Where as in the current situation, the Kings are still trying to find an identity and what players they want to move forward with. If the Kings were to be successful, it's going to be through their drafting and hoping some of these players pan out or through trades. I won't rely on Free agency to help make the Kings relevant again.

 

[Kingster]

In other words your opinion versus actual data. Got it.

The eye test is data. Sensory data.

 

[Kingster]

Divac's survival is going to depend in large measure upon Joerger. If, as he is sometimes portrayed, Joerger really is this inflexible coach who has this one system that he had in Memphis and he's not going to adapt to an athletic young team, then yes, Divac's reign will probably end. The Kings will be down at the bottom of the league in pace, just like last year, the win total will probably be around the same level as last year, and we will all be enamored with who Boston or Philly pick in the draft with what would have been the Kings' first round pick.

If, on the other hand, we see a team play with pace like what we saw with Fox in the summer league, I would think Divac's chances of continuing as GM improve quite a bit. That doesn't mean it's a guarantee of his longevity, just one test that the team must pass to give him a fighting chance. The win total has to be a consideration also. I subscribe to the 35 win or greater goal. It would be nice if it were higher, but as we all know, the west is going to be brutal next year. To get to that 35 win or greater mark I believe Divac still has work to do on this roster, especially with the bench.

P.S. I don't think the Bagley versus Doncic comparison next year is at all important. For those who didn't catch the interview, Joerger intimated that in the Kings' pre-draft discussions the issue of time line was discussed, and management (and it sounded like ownership) are taking the long view on Bagley, not the short view. Also, yes, it goes without saying that the youngsters must improve. If they don't improve, the 35 win benchmark is certainly out of reach.

 

[Kingsfan23]

Divac's survival is going to depend in large measure upon Joerger. If, as he is sometimes portrayed, Joerger really is this inflexible coach who has this one system that he had in Memphis and he's not going to adapt to an athletic young team, then yes, Divac's reign will probably end. The Kings will be down at the bottom of the league in pace, just like last year, the win total will probably be around the same level as last year, and we will all be enamored with who Boston or Philly pick in the draft with what would have been the Kings' first round pick.

If, on the other hand, we see a team play with pace like what we saw with Fox in the summer league, I would think Divac's chances of continuing as GM improve quite a bit. That doesn't mean it's a guarantee of his longevity, just one test that the team must pass to give him a fighting chance. The win total has to be a consideration also. I subscribe to the 35 win or greater goal. It would be nice if it were higher, but as we all know, the west is going to be brutal next year. To get to that 35 win or greater mark I believe Divac still has work to do on this roster, especially with the bench.

P.S. I don't think the Bagley versus Doncic comparison next year is at all important. For those who didn't catch the interview, Joerger intimated that in the Kings' pre-draft discussions the issue of time line was discussed, and management (and it sounded like ownership) are taking the long view on Bagley, not the short view. Also, yes, it goes without saying that the youngsters must improve. If they don't improve, the 35 win benchmark is certainly out of reach.

Management can set themselves up to be excused for the crucial decision of the 2 pick all they want, but if Bagley doesn’t look like an excouraging 2 pick they need to removed, if they didn’t already. Of course they are going to try to buy time on it.

That’s a crucial decision. Even Kings mouthpiece Napear said people will be fired over the pick if it doesn’t pan out repeatedly throughout the draft process.

I want a vetted professional with experience who I as a fan trust in the FO even before this 2 pick. But this 2 pick is so crucial I think there is no coming back from Bagley not looking the part in his rookie year

And there is no other way to judge Bagley than on trajectory from what he shows

 

[The Effort Police]

I wonder why every major move gets regarded as some kind of reset button for Vlade to have more of a grace period. "We drafted X, we need to let this play out. We're doing X, we need to let this play out."

Yes, we need to let Bagley play out. Yes, we need to be patient with the rebuild. Doing a major move doesn't magically reset Vlade's tenure to his first day as a new GM. It's still his fourth season on the job.

 

[Kingster]

Management can set themselves up to be excused for the crucial decision of the 2 pick all they want, but if Bagley doesn’t look like an excouraging 2 pick they need to removed, if they didn’t already. Of course they are going to try to buy time on it.

That’s a crucial decision. Even Kings mouthpiece Napear said people will be fired over the pick if it doesn’t pan out repeatedly throughout the draft process.

I want a vetted professional with experience who I as a fan trust in the FO even before this 2 pick. But this 2 pick is so crucial I think there is no coming back from Bagley not looking the part in his rookie year

And there is no other way to judge Bagley than on trajectory from what he shows

There's no excuse and it is a crucial decision and people could be fired over the pick - in two or three years, if it doesn't work out. Only fools set themselves up with a one-year timeline with a 19 year old rookie.

 

[206Fan]

There's no excuse and it is a crucial decision and people could be fired over the pick - in two or three years, if it doesn't work out. Only fools set themselves up with a one-year timeline with a 19 year old rookie.

No one is setting Bagley up for a 1yr timeline. He needs to look GOOD next year and better than the rookies taken after him. He was the #2 pick in a very good draft class. If he comes out looking like a gigantic project, while someone like Doncic or Carter Jr looks like a franchise player, somebody SHOULD be fired. That would be completely unacceptable.

The Kings came into the draft needing talent, shooting, play making, ball handling, and a SF. Everything that describes Doncic. They tripled down on drafting Bagley. They used Carmichael Dave as their mouth piece to relay info. So Bagley better show up his rookie year.

The Kings have had a history of drafting busts with poor rookie years.

 

[burekijogurt]

I wonder why every major move gets regarded as some kind of reset button for Vlade to have more of a grace period. "We drafted X, we need to let this play out. We're doing X, we need to let this play out."

Yes, we need to let Bagley play out. Yes, we need to be patient with the rebuild. Doing a major move doesn't magically reset Vlade's tenure to his first day as a new GM. It's still his fourth season on the job.

it has not even been 3 years since he was hired as GM yet. how much further in development do you think an experienced GM would have gotten us to? would we be in the playoffs yet? as I mentioned, it took philly 5 years to get to the playoffs and their rebuild is being held up as the golden standard in rebuilds

 

[Kingster]

No one is setting Bagley up for a 1yr timeline. He needs to look GOOD next year and better than the rookies taken after him. He was the #2 pick in a very good draft class. If he comes out looking like a gigantic project, while someone like Doncic or Carter Jr looks like a franchise player, somebody SHOULD be fired. That would be completely unacceptable.

The Kings came into the draft needing talent, shooting, play making, ball handling, and a SF. Everything that describes Doncic. They tripled down on drafting Bagley. They used Carmichael Dave as their mouth piece to relay info. So Bagley better show up his rookie year.

The Kings have had a history of drafting busts with poor rookie years.

Looking good and better than rookies taken after him "next year" IS a one-year timeline. And if one fired those GMs whose rookies didn't look better than the ones drafted afterwards, there would be 12 fired GMs after the 2017 draft (See Mitchell). High expectations are great, but to have unrealistic expectations is an exercise in folly.

 

[Kingsfan23]

Looking good and better than rookies taken after him "next year" IS a one-year timeline. And if one fired those GMs whose rookies didn't look better than the ones drafted afterwards, there would be 12 fired GMs after the 2017 draft (See Mitchell). High expectations are great, but to have unrealistic expectations is an exercise in folly.

Usually careers of young players follow trajectories. It’s the minority that rookies look like duds than turn it on, and vice versa. Most people should have a handle of Bagley’s ‘likelihood’ after his rookie year.

It’s not about stats, but the fanbase and management better be enthused by what he’s shown

 

[AleksandarN]

You really want me to dig through and find it? It had almost exactly the same tone as the post I responded to. Indignant might be too strong a word as I struggled to find the right word but it was basically the same sentiment in 180 degrees different direction.

But hey I’ve been married for 30 years so no problem

Like I said many times and many posts. When the trade was made Vlade and his scouting team identified in that draft it was a very weak one therefore seeked what he thought was the best player and prospect(Bogs) with what was left in the draft. So he took flyers on high risk prospects with his remaining picks in the draft. That is what you are suppose to do in a weak draft. Did the picks work out? No but he did what any smart GM would do get the best talent which he did with Bogs or do you think Chris is a better player?

 

[sactowndog]

I'm trying but it's just so hard to take this chap seriously.

I will just say this and then I’m out of here for a while....

I think we have 3 solid players in Bogdan, Boogie and Giles. Fox, Jackson, Bagley and Mason are all maybes. They have to show real improvement this year. They have athletic ability to do so but sometimes that ability isn’t enough. It’s most critical for the second year guys: Fox, Jackson and Mason.

If they do improve the Kings will have a good base to sell and Vlade’s reputation will rise.

If they don’t improve it will be imperative and harder to sign free agents. The Kings should have a contingency plan in place to move quickly if they don’t think Vlade can be trusted to sign free agents next summer. If the Kings management is smart they should be asking this question now and deciding on a course of action that can be quickly implemented at seasons end.

 

[sactowndog]

Like I said many times and many posts. When the trade was made Vlade and his scouting team identified in that draft it was a very weak one therefore seeked what he thought was the best player and prospect(Bogs) with what was left in the draft. So he took flyers on high risk prospects with his remaining picks in the draft. That is what you are suppose to do in a weak draft. Did the picks work out? No but he did what any smart GM would do get the best talent which he did with Bogs or do you think Chris is a better player?

Like I said many times. I have no problem with the trade. The draft of PappaG was very questionable even as a high risk reward draft. No clear better players were available so while not great not deadly.

The 2017 draft is another matter. As of right now (and things can change) Fox over Markannen, Smith, or Mitchell looks very bad. Jackson over Anunoby, Collins, Kuzma looks bad. Mason over Ojeleye or Bell is equally bad. If these guys improve the perception changes greatly but they have to make strides to catch up to players they are behind.

The progress of 2017 draftees and to some extent what Bagley shows will be significant this year.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

The 2017 draft is another matter. As of right now (and things can change) Fox over Markannen, Smith, or Mitchell looks very bad. Jackson over Anunoby, Collins, Kuzma looks bad. Mason over Ojeleye or Bell is equally bad.

Which is precisely why nobody should be making judgements one way or the other. 1 year isn't remotely close to enough time. 3 years is minimum. But we've seen some players take even longer, such as Steve Nash and Steph Curry (Curry was good early on, but not all world).

 

[206Fan]

Looking good and better than rookies taken after him "next year" IS a one-year timeline. And if one fired those GMs whose rookies didn't look better than the ones drafted afterwards, there would be 12 fired GMs after the 2017 draft (See Mitchell). High expectations are great, but to have unrealistic expectations is an exercise in folly.

Next year is for Vlade, not Bagley.
Mitchell was a bit more unexpected because he was picked at #13. However, I think Rich Cho did get fired for it. He's a horrific GM, but passing up on a franchise player for Monk was MJ's final straw with him. Their coach adamantly wanted Mitchell, meanwhile Cho and the FO went the other way with Monk.

Bagley was not the consensus #2 pick in the NBA. He was not a popular pick with the fans nor the media. So if he under performs his rookie year, Vlade is going to get grilled for it. He's already done a series of bad moves, but some GMs like Rich Cho get 100 chances.

 

[sactowndog]

Which is precisely why nobody should be making judgements one way or the other. 1 year isn't remotely close to enough time. 3 years is minimum. But we've seen some players take even longer, such as Steve Nash and Steph Curry (Curry was good early on, but not all world).

If those 3 don’t make progress this year the likelihood of suddenly turning it around is slim. Curry’s advanced stats were no where near Fox’s.

 

[Joshoua]

Next year is for Vlade, not Bagley.
Mitchell was a bit more unexpected because he was picked at #13. However, I think Rich Cho did get fired for it. He's a horrific GM, but passing up on a franchise player for Monk was MJ's final straw with him. Their coach adamantly wanted Mitchell, meanwhile Cho and the FO went the other way with Monk.

Bagley was not the consensus #2 pick in the NBA. He was not a popular pick with the fans nor the media. So if he under performs his rookie year, Vlade is going to get grilled for it. He's already done a series of bad moves, but some GMs like Rich Cho get 100 chances.

I don’t know if I’d fire Vlade but if Doncic lives to the hype I’m slapping Vlade on sight.

Fox-Buddy-Bogdan-Doncic-Giles would have blew up Sacramento

 

[jcassio]

I yawn at all the ridiculous ultimatums being thrown about here.

 

[Livinthedream]

It takes just as much intelligence to guess and speculate about how bad Bagley, Fox, JJ are going to be as it does to speculate on their future success. Stats are nice, but we're dealing with human beings, which means predicting their career path would require not just numbers, but psychic ability. With all of the data teams now use, it's still a crapshoot when drafting these kids for that exact reason. The "wait and see crowd" are just aware that there is not enough information yet to make any definitive statements or hit the panic button.

There was no consensus on Bagley as the #2 pick, but there wasn't a consensus on Doncic either. Which is why he's with the team that had the 5th pick. I've said this before, but Doncic should have gone #1 hands down if he's as good as some on this board think.

I'm not a big fan of having Vlade as our GM. I mainly turned on him for the philly trade because I thought it was extremely short sighted. However, when he drafted Bagley over Doncic, he actually sacrificed taking a player who is already a pro with low risk and in my opinion a relatively low ceiling for a kid with a high ceiling that may take a couple years to develop. Vlade made the hard choice over the short sighted career protecting choice. However it works out, he gained some respect in my book.

 

[Livinthedream]

One more thing about Vlade sacraficing himself for the team with the Bagley pick. Bagley technically should have been in high school last year. So he may even be 2 years away. But the young kid dominating the ACC showed just how much talent he had and put himself in the top 3 draft conversation.

 

[Nokidding]

One more thing about Vlade sacraficing himself for the team with the Bagley pick. Bagley technically should have been in high school last year. So he may even be 2 years away. But the young kid dominating the ACC showed just how much talent he had and put himself in the top 3 draft conversation.

How does the American school system work if he's 18 turning 19 (current age) and still in HS in Australia you finish at 16 turning 17.....did he get held back a year? I thought it was normal to come into the NBA as a 1 and done player being 18 turning 19 or just turned 19.

That age thing really confused me cause they were saying he should have been in HS but yet he's older than a few of the picks and they didn't mention Jackson JR should still be in HS who is still 18.

 

[BigVirg]

Usually careers of young players follow trajectories. It’s the minority that rookies look like duds than turn it on, and vice versa. Most people should have a handle of Bagley’s ‘likelihood’ after his rookie year.

It’s not about stats, but the fanbase and management better be enthused by what he’s shown

Although i understand your premise I gotta disagree with you here. Like others have said Nash did not show too much promise along with many others including; Jimmy Butley, Hassan Whiteside, kyle Korver and many others......Oh and the best nba center of all time in Hakeem the DREAM. These are kids we are drafting and most of them get by off athleticism alone at the HS and college level. Give these kids to develop their skill and bodies before we pass judgment.

 

[dude12]

As I mentioned in another post, with these younger guys, I’m more concerned with physical development more than advanced data at such young age. You can see the physical change in Fox. It’s going to help him finish drives, play better defense, etc. Giles had nothing to do last year but work on his body, Bagley needs an offseason or 2 to develop, they say JJ is stronger although it is hard to tell just looking at him......plus he’s older and has had time to develop physically but hasn’t. Mason looks capped out physically and is older. But these 19 year olds, you want to see them get stronger and it will help evolve their game. I expect a big year from Fox and Giles

 

[Livinthedream]

How does the American school system work if he's 18 turning 19 (current age) and still in HS in Australia you finish at 16 turning 17.....did he get held back a year? I thought it was normal to come into the NBA as a 1 and done player being 18 turning 19 or just turned 19.

That age thing really confused me cause they were saying he should have been in HS but yet he's older than a few of the picks and they didn't mention Jackson JR should still be in HS who is still 18.

It depends on the state and things get funny depending on the month you were born in. I started college at 17 like Jaren Jackson Jr, but I was always younger than most of my classmates, so probably not normal.

For perspective though, Ayton, Trae Young, Bamba were born in 1998. Bagley in 1999.

Without getting too deep in the weeds, his parents could have pushed at the kindergarten age to get him in school earlier. At the prospect of being drafted, the family probably didn't want him being 20 on draft day, so they reclassified late. This came at the expense of that extra high school play and even Dukes player development process.

 

[VF21]

MOD NOTE: The discussion of the Temple trade has been moved to the Temple trade thread.

 

[24 rick barry]

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/kings/divac-after-draft-kings-set-big-guys

All the stars seemed to align when Vanderbilt’s Wade Baldwin fell in the Kings lap at 13, but once again, they zigged, instead of zagged.

In a shocking move, the Kings passed on major positions of need, instead, selecting center Georgios Papagiannis out of Greece.

...

According to both Divac and Big George, he’s on his way to the states to play this season. Divac is hoping for a Cauley-Stein rookie year type of production from Papagiannis and he believes the big has All-Star potential.

(Edited by mod to reduce length of quote, assign attribution to original article, clarify that this is a quote)