Fox AND Haliburton??

Fox and Hali ceiling is....

  • Contenders

    Votes: 5 10.4%
  • Perennial Playoff lock

    Votes: 9 18.8%
  • First round fodder/Play-in chaser

    Votes: 22 45.8%
  • 10th pick treadmill

    Votes: 10 20.8%
  • Tanktacular

    Votes: 2 4.2%

  • Total voters
    48
#31
The problem with FOX and Haliburton is almost like the Steph Curry and D'Angelo Russell dilemma, that's why Warriors traded him...they don't need another ballhandler on the court at the same time. Kings need another great player that isn't PG and shoot well. They have Buddy Hield but he can only shoot and suck at everything else (this experience has gone on too long and did not work). My point is they don't need two awesome PGs as a starter...it doesn't work because it reduces the other player's roles. And getting Simmons doesn't work either because you will end up with ONCE AGAIN two PGs. Either you get Simmons and trade both Haliburton and Fox for another star in addition to Simmons...something like Haliburton + Hield for Anthony Davis will work.
Two. Try 3
 

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#32
This is the approach I would take. Continue to build around Fox and Hali, surround them with players that compliment their games and their deficiencies and see how far it takes the Kings. Sure, they may be a first round exit or at bare minimum a second round exit but it would still be better than 16 seasons of misery. If the deadline passes and no moves are made, that means Monte didn't want to include the two in any deals for Simmons, Sabonis or whoever else they may show interest in and I say good on you Monte. The three best assets the Kings possess are Fox, Hali and that first round pick which will be in the vicinity of 8-12 and just looking at past years draft, Bey fell and the guy would of clearly been a difference maker here.
 
#33
The Halliburton Fox core has played together for….. one and a half years. It still has potential to be more but we really need to hit on our picks.

Mitchell has some promise but if we had drafted Sengun you would have 3 guys to build around IMO instead of trying to squeeze a third guard somewhere. Even if we had the same record with Sengun we would potentially have 3 starting positions filled. If we end up picking 8th we could snag a guy like Keegan Murray.

Hali
Fox
Barnes
Murray
Sengun

still, if Davion is a all nba defender and becomes a net positive offensively maybe our trajectory changes. If a big trade isn’t available they are going to have to get really creative
Exactly and the majority of that time was played under Luke Walton. While Monte needs to start thinking about team construction NOW, him being desperate to trade them shouldn't be the key. In the summer, see what happens, but at the deadline he has to clear some clutter and bad vibes. Namely Buddy at this point. If they can clear some cap and forgo the play in and Vivek won't let him then Monte has a very slender path and yes, has to hit it out of the park with MLE signings and draft picks. Something he's been hit or miss on. No more 8 million dollar deals for players that have no interest around the league. Whoever gets the coaching slot has to be specifically picked for his core. No more connects and frat bull****.
 
#34
I’ve been saying it for awhile…..build around these 2 guys. These guys are good enough. Get the right pieces around them. I can’t even guess how high they can go because they can’t do it themselves. Need legit wings around them. Need legit big who can control the paint and guard the pick and roll.
Exactly what I've been saying too! I would build around Fox and Hali and trade all the win-now vets to the highest bidder for any wing or draft pick with some upside. Barnes, Holmes, Buddy, all should be moved by this upcoming draft. Get us some mid-low 1st round picks or some wings with upside, i.e. Moses Moody, Patrick Williams, even Neismith would work. I bet GSW or Chicago would love to get Barnes for a deep playoff run.

I would dump vets salary now and get some young wings with upside. I would trade Holmes and hang on to Bagley and move him to center full time. Anyone who is older than 25 years old is on the trade table. I hang on to Fox, Hali, Mitchell, Davis and Bagley (and probably Metu), everyone else is on the trade table.
 
#35
Exactly what I've been saying too! I would build around Fox and Hali and trade all the win-now vets to the highest bidder for any wing or draft pick with some upside. Barnes, Holmes, Buddy, all should be moved by this upcoming draft. Get us some mid-low 1st round picks or some wings with upside, i.e. Moses Moody, Patrick Williams, even Neismith would work. I bet GSW or Chicago would love to get Barnes for a deep playoff run.

I would dump vets salary now and get some young wings with upside. I would trade Holmes and hang on to Bagley and move him to center full time. Anyone who is older than 25 years old is on the trade table. I hang on to Fox, Hali, Mitchell, Davis and Bagley (and probably Metu), everyone else is on the trade table.
I 1000% agree with this. I originally was wanting deal Fox but it really isn't as much of a necessary as dealing the above that you mentioned.

Unless it's for something that's really great value in return, Fox shouldn't be moved just to be moved, he's still young.

I would apply the same logic to Bagley, he has yet to play a season injury free up to this point and by all accounts has been severely mis-managed and underdeveloped (benching him like some scrub at the beginning of the season and you're telling me all it took for him to play solid defense was someone (Doug Christie) to teach him how to play defense ?)

So embarrassing.

But anyway, I bet you the team wouldn't even lose more moving on from those 3.

And if they don't, cool, we got some young pieces back that can grow and develop with the team. And if they do, great ! Higher draft pick to add some talent to this team.

These are no brainer moves that need to be made at the deadline no questions asked, I'd say even moreso than making some splash move.

Fox and Haliburton aren't going anywhere anytime soon if we choose to keep them.
 
#36
How can anyone watch our games and come away thinking, “hey, those two guards are the ones we should build our team around!”

Here are two points that we can all pretty much agree on:
  • Fox is best when he’s running the offense
  • Halliburton is best when he’s running the offense
Two PGs has never worked in the NBA, and it’s not going to work here. They’re two very different players that have different functions for the offense. Halliburton may be a solid fit next to Fox, but Fox is an awful fit next to Halliburton.

With that being said, I’d take an offense being ran by Halliburton any day over Fox.

It’s looking more and more likely that Fox’s cap is Charlotte Kemba. Only difference? Kemba was getting paid $12mpy, while Fox will be around $32mpy.

We’ll be fighting for 10th seed if we think a duo of Fox-Haliburton can lead us somewhere.

IT-Tyreke wasn’t that much of a distant memory.. was it?
 
#37
If the Kings want to fight for a playoff in spot for the next decade than yes build around both, if they want to actually do something than build around Hali (do not give him a max deal unless he's shown he' s a max player unlike Fox) for the time being. The copium surrounding Fox is amazing.
 
#38
I know it's not a perfect analogy, but I suspect that - barring a third star in the mix - a Fox/Hali one-two punch is destined to end up no better than a Lillard/McCollum team, likely a bit worse. Without a third star, you're probably looking at a ceiling of back-half of the playoffs most of the time but never quite good enough to get to the top.

The question is where that third star comes from. Lotto luck and good drafting would probably be the most likely route.
If both hit there absolute ceiling Dame/CJ would still be the better combo
 
#40
Another option is the current Timberwolves. They're more or less what you get when you take the current guards and add a star big to the mix. That may seem like an insult, but keep in mind that team is basically as thin on the wing as we are.

Anyway, ball dominant guards get paired up all the time. Guard play is what you want. And Hali's less of a PG and more like a super Bogi combo guard since his ability to break down the defense as a ballhandler is basically non-existent. But that's a moot point since it's a 3 position league of guard-wing-big. The PF position is on life-support and the SG position melded with the PG and the SF a long time ago.
 
#42
First, Detroit represents opposing teams the last few years, who score 30% to 50% more than their average.
Second, it’s the volume. Yea, Fox gets good raw numbers, but it doesn’t mean sh*t when the other team is scoring non-stop on you.

It’s no different than what the Niners are going to do to Rodgers on Saturday. They’re going to run the ball, control the pace, and keep the ball away from the league’s best qb. After 5 years of losing, it’s fair to ask whether Fox is capable of controlling pace and whether he’s willing to change in order to win. Dude is fools gold.
You still haven't explained how the entire defense is now Fox's fault. Because he's fast or something?
 
#43
They've obviously been shopping both so clearly they don't think they're good enough. Now they're going to build around them... Build what?

They're not good enough to be all stars, no free agent all stars will sign here and you can't draft a star even when one falls in your lap; we don't have the remaining assets to trade for a star or even a once was a star (maybe Westbrook or John wall aside)

This is the silliest "strategy" ever.
 
#44
You still haven't explained how the entire defense is now Fox's fault. Because he's fast or something?
Offensive volume. All you gotta do is look at the outlier scoring that opposing teams rack up on the Kings when Fox is the main ball handler. If the Kings run and they win, fine. But the league adjusted to the Kings style after the first half of the 2017 season. They lose more than they win. It doesn’t work. It’s fools gold.
 
#46
Some data for this year. Fox as the primary ball handler without Hali vs Hali as the primary ball handler without Fox.
And here's some head to head advanced stats comp between Fox and Hali, Fox and Morant, and Hali and Morant. Plus/Minuses depending on your gaze, but I tend to focus on the PIE. It's pretty conclusive as to why opposing teams see Hali as the better player even before considering the contract.

https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/advanced/#!?PlayerID=1630169&VsPlayerID=1628368
https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/advanced/#!?PlayerID=1629630&VsPlayerID=1628368
https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/advanced/#!?PlayerID=1630169&VsPlayerID=1629630

The data just follows the eye test.

Bonus: Why Philly Prefers Hali--Fox vs Maxey and Hali vs. Maxey.

https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/advanced/#!?PlayerID=1628368&VsPlayerID=1630178
https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/advanced/#!?PlayerID=1630169&VsPlayerID=1630178
 
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#47
And here's some head to head advanced stats comp between Fox and Hali, Fox and Morant, and Hali and Morant. Plus/Minuses depending on your gaze, but I tend to focus on the PIE. It's pretty conclusive as to why opposing teams see Hali as the better player even before considering the contract.

https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/advanced/#!?PlayerID=1630169&VsPlayerID=1628368
https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/advanced/#!?PlayerID=1629630&VsPlayerID=1628368
https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/advanced/#!?PlayerID=1630169&VsPlayerID=1629630

The data just follows the eye test.

Bonus: Why Philly Prefers Hali--Fox vs Maxey and Hali vs. Maxey.

https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/advanced/#!?PlayerID=1628368&VsPlayerID=1630178
https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/advanced/#!?PlayerID=1630169&VsPlayerID=1630178
1642781100732.png

Haliburton's advanced impact stats tend to be better across the board this year. However, Fox is having his worst year (from an advanced impact stat standpoint) since his rookie year. The year prior he at least had a +1.08 LEBRON and +0.01 LA-RAPM (which are my two preferred stats out of all of these).

You can also see that Fox's 2nd year compared to Haliburton's 2nd year are pretty similar from an advanced impact stat standpoint.



If this indicates anything, it likely means that trading Fox at this point means we're likely selling low. (It also indicates that Fox is pretty atrocious on defense which passes the eye test for me)
 
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#48
View attachment 10860

Haliburton's advanced impact stats tend to be better across the board this year. However, Fox is having his worst year (from an advanced impact stat standpoint) since his rookie year. The year prior he at least had a +1.08 LEBRON and +0.01 LA-RAPM (which are my two preferred stats out of all of these).

You can also see that Fox's 2nd year compared to Haliburton's 2nd year are pretty similar from an advanced impact stat standpoint.



If this indicates anything, it likely means that trading Fox at this point means we're likely selling low. (It also indicates that Fox is pretty atrocious on defense which passes the eye test for me)
That’s one way to look at it. Another is Fox’s floor should be where Morant’s is in year 5. There are iterations of the calcs that i ran earlier that can show the magnitude of the opponents scoring bump when Fox is operating the offense and why it leads to more losses than wins. But i don’t have the time nor the motivation to continue backing the obvious—he needs to chsnge or the Kings will continue to suck. Unless, of course, he gets shipped out, which should’ve happened last summer.
 
#49
That’s one way to look at it. Another is Fox’s floor should be where Morant’s is in year 5. There are iterations of the calcs that i ran earlier that can show the magnitude of the opponents scoring bump when Fox is operating the offense and why it leads to more losses than wins. But i don’t have the time nor the motivation to continue backing the obvious—he needs to chsnge or the Kings will continue to suck. Unless, of course, he gets shipped out, which should’ve happened last summer.
No option c? Get better players/coaching around him. Put fox on the grizz and Ja on the kings and they probably close in the standings where they are now
 
#50
View attachment 10860

Haliburton's advanced impact stats tend to be better across the board this year. However, Fox is having his worst year (from an advanced impact stat standpoint) since his rookie year. The year prior he at least had a +1.08 LEBRON and +0.01 LA-RAPM (which are my two preferred stats out of all of these).

You can also see that Fox's 2nd year compared to Haliburton's 2nd year are pretty similar from an advanced impact stat standpoint.



If this indicates anything, it likely means that trading Fox at this point means we're likely selling low. (It also indicates that Fox is pretty atrocious on defense which passes the eye test for me)
I feel like the defensive advanced stats give too much credence to Haliburton this year. He has good steal and block numbers for his position and that shouldn't be discounted at all but I feel like they go too far in some defense metrics. He's really is about as much of a matador as Fox is on the perimeter.
 

dude12

Hall of Famer
#51
I feel like the defensive advanced stats give too much credence to Haliburton this year. He has good steal and block numbers for his position and that shouldn't be discounted at all but I feel like they go too far in some defense metrics. He's really is about as much of a matador as Fox is on the perimeter.
Yeah, Halliburton is getting a pass from way too many people for his defense. In some of these close games as we were closing in on wins down the stretch, it’s fairly common to see Fox guard PG and other tough covers that Davion is too short for. Fox is strong enough to do that as Hali isn’t.

But if we build around the,, we definitely need a 3rd dude and then defensive type anchors. A Christie type, BobbyJax, Artest, those teams had that. We just don’t have enough. Look at Minny winning more now because they have added some defensive minded guys to the lineup.
 
#52
No option c? Get better players/coaching around him. Put fox on the grizz and Ja on the kings and they probably close in the standings where they are now
Think it’s probably time to put that Fox and Ja argument to rest. One player tries to impose his will on the game, the other does what’s necessary to win. And even with that approach, the latter ends up with better raw and advanced stats and more wins than losses.

As for adding players, sure, but will Fox change enough to maximize the other player’s skill set? If you’re Jerami Grant, why da **** would he want to come to the Kings where he’ll be asked to be a 3 and D, rarely see the ball, and asked to shoot rather than play make.

The type of third high level player that would work is a connector with a shot. Someone like Sabonis, in tandem with Hali, who can connect while Fox just scores. And even then why would the Kings do all of that just to accommodate a guy, who limits the universe of players that you can acquire and who is trending towards a good, but not elite ceiling?
 
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#53
I feel like the defensive advanced stats give too much credence to Haliburton this year. He has good steal and block numbers for his position and that shouldn't be discounted at all but I feel like they go too far in some defense metrics. He's really is about as much of a matador as Fox is on the perimeter.
And this is the real crux of the problem. In my opinion, our problem isn't whether Fox and Haliburton are a good enough 1-2, the problem is that the Kings play just about the most undisciplined basketball I've ever seen from an NBA team. Pretty much everyone is a matador on the perimeter defensively, everyone loses their man when guarding off ball resulting in cuts and easy layups, we give up the fourth highest opp. FG% on pick and rolls (our PnR defense is atrocious), we are tied for 3rd lowest defensive rebound % in the league (none of our players box out, often because they're out of position due to our amateur perimeter defense). It's like we're a pickup team from the local gym lacking fundamentals and discipline playing against professional teams. Staying in front of your man, eye on man and ball, boxing out, etc. are all things basketball players learn on youth basketball teams.

Now, the question is what is the source of these issues?

Is it coaching? I know Luke was awful and Gentry hasn't had a training camp or anything, but he hasn't made many, if any, changes since acting as head coach.

Is it player development? New draft picks and young players won't fix that.

Is it just players are broken? It's hard to believe that for 15 years the Kings have just happened to choose all the players who lack fundamentals.

Is it cultural? Are players just picking up bad habits being with this team? You need a Chris Paul type player or Popovich type coach to fix that sort of thing, which is obviously not easy to get.

Doesn't matter who our top two players are if this type of basketball is what we play. I would like the team to prioritize playing more disciplined, smarter basketball, which could include roster moves, over anything else.
 
#54
I feel like the defensive advanced stats give too much credence to Haliburton this year. He has good steal and block numbers for his position and that shouldn't be discounted at all but I feel like they go too far in some defense metrics. He's really is about as much of a matador as Fox is on the perimeter.
I mean basically all of the defensive impact stats are negative for Haliburton. It's not like they are saying he's a stud on the defensive end, but it is interesting looking at our defensive rating when Fox is on the court & Haliburton is off the court and when Haliburton is on the court & Fox is off the court:

1642789155940.png

That's a pretty large difference from a defensive standpoint and likely contributing to why these advanced impact stats are crediting Haliburton as having more impact on the defensive end than Fox.
 
#55
Think it’s probably time to put that Fox and Ja argument to rest. One player tries to impose his will on the game, the other does what’s necessary to win. And even with that approach, the latter ends up with better raw and advanced stats and more wins than losses.

As for adding players, sure, but will Fox change enough to maximize the other player’s skill set? If you’re Jerami Grant, why da fuk would he want to come to the Kings where he’ll be asked to be a 3 and D, rarely see the ball, and asked to shoot rather than play make.

The type of third high level player that would work is a connector with a shot. Someone like Sabonis, in tandem with Hali, who can connect while Fox just scores. And even then why would the Kings do all of that just to accommodate a guy, who limits the universe of players that you can acquire and who is trending towards a good, but not elite ceiling?
I used to be a staunch defender in the fox vs ja arguments but this year, Ja has taken a big jump whole fox has regressed. Ja is definitely the better player right now. Last year, I think the argument opposite was valid. But that’s why I said the standings would be close if the roles were reversed and not thesame. I think the kings would be better with ja and grizz worse with fox, but prob not by much. The teams from top to bottom are pretty drastic that I doubt they both would make a big difference one way or another look at how the teams did when they were out. Maybe 3-5 games at most.
 
#56
I feel like the defensive advanced stats give too much credence to Haliburton this year. He has good steal and block numbers for his position and that shouldn't be discounted at all but I feel like they go too far in some defense metrics. He's really is about as much of a matador as Fox is on the perimeter.
Just wait til fox is gone, he will be next in line for them to crap on.
 
#58
And this is the real crux of the problem. In my opinion, our problem isn't whether Fox and Haliburton are a good enough 1-2, the problem is that the Kings play just about the most undisciplined basketball I've ever seen from an NBA team. Pretty much everyone is a matador on the perimeter defensively, everyone loses their man when guarding off ball resulting in cuts and easy layups, we give up the fourth highest opp. FG% on pick and rolls (our PnR defense is atrocious), we are tied for 3rd lowest defensive rebound % in the league (none of our players box out, often because they're out of position due to our amateur perimeter defense). It's like we're a pickup team from the local gym lacking fundamentals and discipline playing against professional teams. Staying in front of your man, eye on man and ball, boxing out, etc. are all things basketball players learn on youth basketball teams.

Now, the question is what is the source of these issues?

Is it coaching? I know Luke was awful and Gentry hasn't had a training camp or anything, but he hasn't made many, if any, changes since acting as head coach.

Is it player development? New draft picks and young players won't fix that.

Is it just players are broken? It's hard to believe that for 15 years the Kings have just happened to choose all the players who lack fundamentals.

Is it cultural? Are players just picking up bad habits being with this team? You need a Chris Paul type player or Popovich type coach to fix that sort of thing, which is obviously not easy to get.

Doesn't matter who our top two players are if this type of basketball is what we play. I would like the team to prioritize playing more disciplined, smarter basketball, which could include roster moves, over anything else.

Spot on. It's pretty baffling that Bagley could all of a sudden play defense once Doug Christie was added to the coaching stuff.

How sad is that ?

It tells me the story goes much further than the players.
 
#59
I mean basically all of the defensive impact stats are negative for Haliburton. It's not like they are saying he's a stud on the defensive end, but it is interesting looking at our defensive rating when Fox is on the court & Haliburton is off the court and when Haliburton is on the court & Fox is off the court:

View attachment 10861

That's a pretty large difference from a defensive standpoint and likely contributing to why these advanced impact stats are crediting Haliburton as having more impact on the defensive end than Fox.
That offensive rating difference is the jarring thing. That shows the Kings aren't nearly as deep as it would have seemed at the start of the year and considering how both Walton and now Gentry use the bench they might be giving it a little too much credit and Haliburton is being put in a tough spot being that bench rotation guy out of the starters.

Also, on/off stats with this much rotation manipulation is a tough one to figure. That's why it's always safer to go with overall net ratings and 5 man stats. Pairing a TEAM game to individual advanced stats when they a culmination of result as a unit is plain stupid. If I were a GM and any stat nerd came to me with that **** when it didn't match the eye test would be headed out the door immediately.

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612758&CF=GP*GE*10:MIN*GE*10&sort=DEF_RATING&dir=-1

Still early but with a > 10 game 10 minute qualifier here's the deal. There are your best defensive units right here. Fox? In the top 2. Haliburton in the 2nd best. Notice a correlation between these lineups? Anyone? Anyone?

Anyone?

Gee, looks like small ball with Barnes at PF AGAIN this year. That would be 3 in a row, yet we still see a bunch of Metu/Jones out there, even together. DUMB is DUMB.
 
#60
That offensive rating difference is the jarring thing. That shows the Kings aren't nearly as deep as it would have seemed at the start of the year and considering how both Walton and now Gentry use the bench they might be giving it a little too much credit and Haliburton is being put in a tough spot being that bench rotation guy out of the starters.

Also, on/off stats with this much rotation manipulation is a tough one to figure. That's why it's always safer to go with overall net ratings and 5 man stats. Pairing a TEAM game to individual advanced stats when they a culmination of result as a unit is plain stupid. If I were a GM and any stat nerd came to me with that **** when it didn't match the eye test would be headed out the door immediately.

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612758&CF=GP*GE*10:MIN*GE*10&sort=DEF_RATING&dir=-1

Still early but with a > 10 game 10 minute qualifier here's the deal. There are your best defensive units right here. Fox? In the top 2. Haliburton in the 2nd best. Notice a correlation between these lineups? Anyone? Anyone?

Anyone?

Gee, looks like small ball with Barnes at PF AGAIN this year. That would be 3 in a row, yet we still see a bunch of Metu/Jones out there, even together. DUMB is DUMB.
I may have to concede that the smaller lineups are working. It's really just our inability to end defensive possessions with a rebound when we're playing smaller lineups that has been driving me crazy but Barnes was our leading rebounder in the early part of the season playing that PF position. If we had another productive bench wing who could slide into that SF position when Barnes is at PF then we wouldn't need to play Buddy Hield or Davion Mitchell in 3 guard lineups so much.