FiveThirtyEight Project Kings to Finish Last in West

[pdxKingsFan]

Or they have a lower payout because they have less conviction in Kings winning more.

That... doesn't make economic sense.

 

[63royals]

Whenever an idiotic article like this is published, I wonder if they do it on purpose just to get people to talk about them. I'm reminded of the old Hollywood adage that it doesn't matter if it's bad publicity as long as they spell the name right.

 

[Joshoua]

They think the Clippers will win less than 50 games LOL. Lock the thread!

This should’ve been the last post in this thread. Go look at the clippers projections for a laugh and to realize what a joke this is

 

[Kangztillidie]

Or they have a lower payout because they have less conviction in Kings winning more. O/U point theoretically is where they want to have equal numbers of bets above and below. But hey, they're waiting for your money if you know what they really believe or not..

This whole post doesnt make any sense. They would have higher payouts if they had less conviction. Wow lol

 

[kingdivac]

This whole post doesnt make any sense. They would have higher payouts if they had less conviction. Wow lol

So, at a higher O/U (win-total) for the Kings, they would pay more - it is determined to be more risky for the casino - they have less conviction (certainty) - say at 44 wins for example. O/U is a midpoint guess. They think 37 wins is an even spread or distribution on both sides of 37 wins for bets - and expected half will bet more and half will bet less. Easier to manage outlier events - like the Kings tanking down badly in the low 20s or breaking the ceiling coming in with 55 wins. Casino is hoping to take as many bets as possible for transactions and even out payouts. At the extremes everyone would obviously bet one way or the other and so on causing greater risk of losses.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

So, at a higher O/U (win-total) for the Kings, they would pay more - it is determined to be more risky for the casino - they have less conviction (certainty) - say at 44 wins for example. O/U is a midpoint guess. They think 37 wins is an even spread or distribution on both sides of 37 wins for bets - and expected half will bet more and half will bet less. Easier to manage outlier events - like the Kings tanking down badly in the low 20s or breaking the ceiling coming in with 55 wins. Casino is hoping to take as many bets as possible for transactions and even out payouts. At the extremes everyone would obviously bet one way or the other and so on causing greater risk of losses.

The over/under is 37 wins, but if you bet the under a $100 bet pays $105. If you bet the over, you need to bet $125 to get $100. So even though the casino set X for the number, the pay out odds show that the casinos themselves are betting on the over.

There's a lot more complexities involved here, and part of that is because more people will bet against the Kings because we don't have a lot of fans right now so keeping the under low is protection. There's also a lot of Lakers money in Vegas (see how they opened at 4:1 favorites even before trading for AD and free agency opened) and Lakers fans are likely to bet against the Kings.

 

[Kangztillidie]

The over/under is 37 wins, but if you bet the under a $100 bet pays $105. If you bet the over, you need to bet $125 to get $100. So even though the casino set X for the number, the pay out odds show that the casinos themselves are betting on the over.

There's a lot more complexities involved here, and part of that is because more people will bet against the Kings because we don't have a lot of fans right now so keeping the under low is protection. There's also a lot of Lakers money in Vegas (see how they opened at 4:1 favorites even before trading for AD and free agency opened) and Lakers fans are likely to bet against the Kings.

Thank you. His whole post was making my head hurt. It made no sense. Couldnt even follow it logically the 4th time I read it.

 

[Kangztillidie]

So, at a higher O/U (win-total) for the Kings, they would pay more - it is determined to be more risky for the casino - they have less conviction (certainty) - say at 44 wins for example. O/U is a midpoint guess. They think 37 wins is an even spread or distribution on both sides of 37 wins for bets - and expected half will bet more and half will bet less. Easier to manage outlier events - like the Kings tanking down badly in the low 20s or breaking the ceiling coming in with 55 wins. Casino is hoping to take as many bets as possible for transactions and even out payouts. At the extremes everyone would obviously bet one way or the other and so on causing greater risk of losses.

The over/under is just that. 2 bets. One over. One under. Nothing to do with total wins. You are so confused.

 

[joemama]

I'm pretty sure some on this thread picked us to be dead last a year ago.

 

[kingdivac]

The over/under is just that. 2 bets. One over. One under. Nothing to do with total wins. You are so confused.

Fair enough, the O/U "betting line" I meant....that was omitted out of haste And the "line" was the total wins so it is the determinant for the O/U bets.

 

[kb02]

I'll take the over.

The payout on the over is lower, because more bets have come in on the over. As such, the line will likely trend higher before the beginning of the season.

Usually, the easy money is made early in the season--before the market and the public adjusts to the team. Time will tell.

Edit: said higher earlier, meant lower payout.