Stay Patient (My Off-Season Plan)

#1
We’re coming off a 39 win season & just missed the playoffs extending our playoff drought to 13 seasons in a row. Kings fans are hungry. They can taste the playoffs and can’t wait to go buy their playoff tickets and cheer for their team as loudly as humanly possible. I just have one question….

Is it really time to go all in on the playoffs?

The team has $21.3 mil in cap space this off-season, and that can grow to $37.5 mil in cap space if we let Cauley-Stein, Ferrell, & Mason walk. It grows to $61.7 mil if Barnes opts out. One thing is for certain, the Kings have some cap space this off-season. The question is how do best spend it to improve this team and put them in a position to one day make the playoffs, but also to one day win a championship.

There are many fans who would prefer to spend that cap space on free agents like Vucevic, Lopez, Dedmon, Beverley, Joseph, Aminu, Ariza, Carroll, the list goes on and on. Their logic stems from the notion that we won 39 games last year and just missed the playoffs; therefore, if we sign a couple good veteran role players, it might push us over the edge (along with the progression from our young players) to becoming a playoff team as early as next season. To this I ask, why the need to catapult ourselves into the playoffs by spending on short term, role players who will likely be well out of their prime by the time Fox (21) and Bagley (20) hit their primes?

I tend to be met with answers such as:
  • Hield, Bogdanovic, & Barnes are due for a new contract next offseason. This is the only chance we will get to sign free agents to improve the team
  • Playoff experience for our core players is more valuable than any 1st round pick
  • We will give our core the wrong impression if we don’t do everything in our power to sign players that help them now

All of these responses either don’t make sense or are insignificant to me. I’m of the line of thinking that we should trade our cap space for 1st round picks (whether they are in this draft or a draft in the future). There are mainly four reasons why I stick to this line of thinking…
  • The majority of the team that won 39 games last season is returning
  • Big time free agents tend to not sign with Sacramento
  • We still have no established all-star level talent (not potential) on our team
  • We can keep the entirety of our core on this team for at least the next 5 years

The majority of the team that won 39 games last season is returning
As I mentioned above, one of the responses I am met with in regard to not wanting to trade our cap space for 1st round picks is due to fans thinking it will jeopardize our ability to make the playoffs. To some degree, they are right. I am replacing cap space that can be spent on a win now role players for a 1st round rookie who may not contribute to winning early on. However, the players that played 70% of the minutes on the 2018-19 Kings would be back next year. The point is that a large majority of the players that contributed to the 39 win season will be back to pick up where they left off.

Not only will they be there to pick-up where they left off, but we should expect progression from our young guys that would ultimately make us a better team (Fox – 21, Hield – 26, Bogdan – 26, Barnes – 27, Bagley – 20, Giles – 21).

Again, since we are bringing back a lot of the same players that contributed to the 39 win season and the fact that we should expect progression from at least some of our young guys, I don’t think it’s out of the question to think we can’t see this group take another step without any marquee signings.


Big time free agents tend to not sign with Sacramento
I don’t think I really need to go into much detail here. We don’t attract big time free agents. Yes, we are an up & coming team. Yes, we are a fun team. Yes, we have cap space, but there are a lot of teams out there that have cap space this offseason. And there are a lot of teams in the West that will also be right there in the playoff hunt that can attract free agents (GSW, HOU, DEN, LAL, POR, OKC, UTA, SAS, LAC, DAL, MIN).

We’re likely only going to be in the market for role players. Not to say role players can’t help, but they aren’t going to be the types of players that move the needle when it comes to becoming a contender. As for these role players, we’re likely paying a premium for them to come here as well. Again, there are a fair amount of teams with cap space, we’ll likely have to overpay players (especially with the California tax) to convince them to come to Sacramento. It just puts us in a position where we are more likely to sign players to bad contracts.

Now I’m not saying it’s impossible. I think Bjelica and Ferrell were great value signings last year, but those players were picked up after the initial round of signings. Guys like Beverley, Joseph, Aminu, Ariza, Lopez, Dedmon, etc. are likely going to be some of the initial players teams reach out to for their role player contracts.

Not to mention these are 28-32 year old players we’re using to help us make the playoffs in the next couple of years. What happens when their contracts expire? We’re likely over the cap with extensions in place for Hield, Bogdanovic, Barnes, Fox, Giles, and Bagley so we’re either using our bird rights to resign those 33-35 year old players, or we simply let them go in free agency and hope that we hit on a lot of our late draft picks over the years to fill the void.

Just to summarize, we’re not going to be able to sign a big time free agent, the upper tier role players will likely result in us overpaying (which may just make them a bad contract a year or two down the road), and signing 28-32 year old role players right now doesn’t help us during the years when we likely will be competing at a much higher level (when Fox & Bagley hit their prime years)


We still have no established all-star level talent (not potential) on our team
I know this probably outrages some of you, but it’s really the truth. We don’t have any established stars on this team. We have players who look promising and are on a good trajectory to becoming a star, but we don’t want to make the mistake of counting our chickens before they hatch.

Locking up all of our cap space this off-season means that we’re thinking that a core of Fox, Hield, Bogdanovic, Barnes, Giles, Bagley, and future 1st/2nd round picks is good enough to eventually compete for a championship. Some of you may say “why are we talking about a championship? Let’s make the playoffs first.” But this goes to my point about us not having any established stars. If Fox was as good as Lillard and Bagley was as good as Anthony Davis, do you think we would be having conversations about playoffs or championships? We would say these two guys are enough to carry us to a title and we have Hield, Bogdanovic, Giles, etc. as well, let’s go sign some solid role players to put us in the thick of things. The truth is that we’re not there. They need more time to develop and work on their games before they can get to that level.

The point is that Fox & Bagley still could not reach their potential. What if Fox tops out as a Jeff Teague? What if Bagley becomes a Millsap level player? I wouldn’t bet against these two reaching their potential, but there is still a chance that they don’t develop into star level players. It's naive to think otherwise. If you have locked up all of your cap space with role players this off-season, you don’t have as much flexibility to collect assets in search of drafting a star or trading a collection of those assets for a star that becomes available.


We can keep the entirety of our core on this team for at least the next 5 years
The last and probably the biggest reason why I think we should trade our salary cap for 1st round picks is because we can control our core for at least 5 more years. Barnes is the one exception as he is a unrestricted FA next year, but he seemed to enjoy playing with our guys and has a starting SF spot with his name on it. Hield & Bogdanovic we can keep on this team for at least another 5 years, Fox & Giles we can keep on this team for another 6 years, and Bagley we can keep on this team for another 7 years.

Why are we in such a hurry to go sign veteran role players to help us make the playoffs next season?

If we were in a situation where we were a fringe playoff team but we had Anthony Davis who was becoming an unrestricted free agent in the next off-season or two, then yeah! Go sign some guys that could help the team win today in an attempt to convince Davis to stay.

Luckily, we’re in a position that we don’t have to worry about that for (at most) 4 years. If Hield is bummed out that we didn’t try and sign Lopez and instead we made a salary dump trade for another 1st round pick, guess what? He can’t just walk out the door next off-season. We have the ability to match any offer sheet and keep him on this roster for another 4 years. Sure, he can sign the qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent the next year, but is he really going to be that upset over us accumulating assets vs. signing a 28-32 year old role player to help a core comprised of a 20, 21, 21, 26, 26, & 27 year old? Don’t be silly.


So what are you recommending & how is that going to help us win a title?
If you haven’t picked it up by now, I’m recommending executing some salary dump trades with a couple low key signings to round out the roster. I’ll break it down by the various sections of the off-season.

2019 NBA Draft
  • Trade 2021 SAC 2nd (Top 55 protected) for Timofey Mozgov & #16
  • Draft Bol Bol at #16
  • Trade #46 for Meyers Leonard & #25
  • Draft Mfiondu Kabengele at #25
  • Draft the best wing available at #40 (Bazley, Okpala, Windler, Samanic, Roby, McDaniels, King, Jeffries)
  • Draft & stash a euro player at #60

2019 Free Agency
  • Harrison Barnes opts-in
  • Keep Yogi Ferrell
  • Let Willie Cauley-Stein & Frank Mason walk
  • We’d have $5.6 mil in cap space. Sign Tyus Jones to a $16.5 mil/3 year deal (last year being a team option)
  • Waive/buy-out Timofey Mozgov to open up another roster spot
  • Use the room exception to sign a veteran wing mentor (V. Carter, Sefolosha, Brewer, Dudley, Temple, Shumpert)
2019 Opening Day Roster
PG – Fox / Jones / Ferrell
SG – Hield / Bogdanovic
SF – Barnes / V. Carter / Roby
PF – Bagley / Bjelica / Swanigan
C – Kabengele / Giles / Bol Bol / Leonard

2020 Off-season
Next off-season, Barnes would become an unrestricted free agent and Hield & Bogdanovic would both have a qualifying offer. Bjelica would also have a team option to consider. Barnes would likely cost $14-16 mil/year on his new deal. Hield’s cap hold is $14.5 mil and Bogdanovic’s cap hold is $12.8 mil. Not to mention our 1st round pick next year will likely have a cap hold of around $2 mil. If we resigned Barnes, we’d have about $31 mil in cap space that could be used before needing to resign Hield & Bogdanovic. If we let Bjelica walk, that goes up to $37.2 mil in cap space.

We would have Fox, Jones, Hield, Bogdanovic, Barnes, Roby, Bagley, Bjelica, Swanigan, Giles, Bol Bol, & Kabengele under contract. That’s 13 players already. We still would have our own 1st round pick and four 2nd round picks. I’d still trade our cap space in the 2020 off-season for a 1st or two; however, this time, I’d look to move up in the 2020 draft (rather than add more picks) or look to accumulate future 1st round picks (2021, 2022, 2023). The 2022 draft is rumored to be the famous “double draft” where it will be the first year where high school players can enter directly into the NBA, but the draft class will also include all of the players that had to go to college for at least 1 year (thus the talent pool should theoretically be deeper).

If we are successful at trading away our cap space in the 2020 off-season for future 1st round picks, we could potentially have these assets:

Players
  • Fox
  • Jones
  • Hield
  • Bogdanovic
  • Barnes
  • Roby
  • Bagley
  • Giles
  • Swanigan
  • Bol Bol
  • Kabengele

1st Round Picks
  • 2020 SAC 1st
  • 2021 SAC 1st
  • 2021 1st (from salary dump trade in the 2020 off-season)
  • 2022 SAC 1st
  • 2022 1st (from salary dump trade in the 2020 off-season)

2nd Round Picks
  • 2020 SAC 2nd
  • 2020 MIA 2nd
  • 2020 DET 2nd
  • 2020 HOU 2nd
  • 2021 SAC 2nd
  • 2021 MEM 2nd
  • 2022 SAC 2nd

Summary
That is a ton of assets to work with. They could make a lot of consolidation trades for better players or be a great trading partner for a team that wants to move their star player and rebuild.

I just don’t agree with the idea of overpaying (or paying market value) 28-32 year old role players like Beverley, Joseph, Aminu, Ariza, Lopez, Dedmon, etc. when we are still in a position to collect assets while the team still gets better on the floor every year. Signing the role players is more or less betting on the core we have in place; whereas, this approach is more or so increasing the odds of finding a star either through draft & development (since we have more picks) or through a trade (since we would have a lot assets to attract other teams).
 

Entity

Hall of Famer
#2
why would orlando trade us timofey and the #16 for a 2nd rounder? and portland gives us Leonard and #25 for a 2nd rounder? you think these teams do this just for the cap space?
 
#3
why would orlando trade us timofey and the #16 for a 2nd rounder? and portland gives us Leonard and #25 for a 2nd rounder? you think these teams do this just for the cap space?
It allows Orlando the cap space to sign Russell or Brogdon.

For Portland, it allows them to resign Aminu while staying under the luxury tax level.
 
#4
We’re coming off a 39 win season & just missed the playoffs extending our playoff drought to 13 seasons in a row. Kings fans are hungry. They can taste the playoffs and can’t wait to go buy their playoff tickets and cheer for their team as loudly as humanly possible. I just have one question….

Is it really time to go all in on the playoffs?

The team has $21.3 mil in cap space this off-season, and that can grow to $37.5 mil in cap space if we let Cauley-Stein, Ferrell, & Mason walk. It grows to $61.7 mil if Barnes opts out. One thing is for certain, the Kings have some cap space this off-season. The question is how do best spend it to improve this team and put them in a position to one day make the playoffs, but also to one day win a championship.

There are many fans who would prefer to spend that cap space on free agents like Vucevic, Lopez, Dedmon, Beverley, Joseph, Aminu, Ariza, Carroll, the list goes on and on. Their logic stems from the notion that we won 39 games last year and just missed the playoffs; therefore, if we sign a couple good veteran role players, it might push us over the edge (along with the progression from our young players) to becoming a playoff team as early as next season. To this I ask, why the need to catapult ourselves into the playoffs by spending on short term, role players who will likely be well out of their prime by the time Fox (21) and Bagley (20) hit their primes?

I tend to be met with answers such as:
  • Hield, Bogdanovic, & Barnes are due for a new contract next offseason. This is the only chance we will get to sign free agents to improve the team
  • Playoff experience for our core players is more valuable than any 1st round pick
  • We will give our core the wrong impression if we don’t do everything in our power to sign players that help them now

All of these responses either don’t make sense or are insignificant to me. I’m of the line of thinking that we should trade our cap space for 1st round picks (whether they are in this draft or a draft in the future). There are mainly four reasons why I stick to this line of thinking…
  • The majority of the team that won 39 games last season is returning
  • Big time free agents tend to not sign with Sacramento
  • We still have no established all-star level talent (not potential) on our team
  • We can keep the entirety of our core on this team for at least the next 5 years

The majority of the team that won 39 games last season is returning
As I mentioned above, one of the responses I am met with in regard to not wanting to trade our cap space for 1st round picks is due to fans thinking it will jeopardize our ability to make the playoffs. To some degree, they are right. I am replacing cap space that can be spent on a win now role players for a 1st round rookie who may not contribute to winning early on. However, the players that played 70% of the minutes on the 2018-19 Kings would be back next year. The point is that a large majority of the players that contributed to the 39 win season will be back to pick up where they left off.

Not only will they be there to pick-up where they left off, but we should expect progression from our young guys that would ultimately make us a better team (Fox – 21, Hield – 26, Bogdan – 26, Barnes – 27, Bagley – 20, Giles – 21).

Again, since we are bringing back a lot of the same players that contributed to the 39 win season and the fact that we should expect progression from at least some of our young guys, I don’t think it’s out of the question to think we can’t see this group take another step without any marquee signings.


Big time free agents tend to not sign with Sacramento
I don’t think I really need to go into much detail here. We don’t attract big time free agents. Yes, we are an up & coming team. Yes, we are a fun team. Yes, we have cap space, but there are a lot of teams out there that have cap space this offseason. And there are a lot of teams in the West that will also be right there in the playoff hunt that can attract free agents (GSW, HOU, DEN, LAL, POR, OKC, UTA, SAS, LAC, DAL, MIN).

We’re likely only going to be in the market for role players. Not to say role players can’t help, but they aren’t going to be the types of players that move the needle when it comes to becoming a contender. As for these role players, we’re likely paying a premium for them to come here as well. Again, there are a fair amount of teams with cap space, we’ll likely have to overpay players (especially with the California tax) to convince them to come to Sacramento. It just puts us in a position where we are more likely to sign players to bad contracts.

Now I’m not saying it’s impossible. I think Bjelica and Ferrell were great value signings last year, but those players were picked up after the initial round of signings. Guys like Beverley, Joseph, Aminu, Ariza, Lopez, Dedmon, etc. are likely going to be some of the initial players teams reach out to for their role player contracts.

Not to mention these are 28-32 year old players we’re using to help us make the playoffs in the next couple of years. What happens when their contracts expire? We’re likely over the cap with extensions in place for Hield, Bogdanovic, Barnes, Fox, Giles, and Bagley so we’re either using our bird rights to resign those 33-35 year old players, or we simply let them go in free agency and hope that we hit on a lot of our late draft picks over the years to fill the void.

Just to summarize, we’re not going to be able to sign a big time free agent, the upper tier role players will likely result in us overpaying (which may just make them a bad contract a year or two down the road), and signing 28-32 year old role players right now doesn’t help us during the years when we likely will be competing at a much higher level (when Fox & Bagley hit their prime years)


We still have no established all-star level talent (not potential) on our team
I know this probably outrages some of you, but it’s really the truth. We don’t have any established stars on this team. We have players who look promising and are on a good trajectory to becoming a star, but we don’t want to make the mistake of counting our chickens before they hatch.

Locking up all of our cap space this off-season means that we’re thinking that a core of Fox, Hield, Bogdanovic, Barnes, Giles, Bagley, and future 1st/2nd round picks is good enough to eventually compete for a championship. Some of you may say “why are we talking about a championship? Let’s make the playoffs first.” But this goes to my point about us not having any established stars. If Fox was as good as Lillard and Bagley was as good as Anthony Davis, do you think we would be having conversations about playoffs or championships? We would say these two guys are enough to carry us to a title and we have Hield, Bogdanovic, Giles, etc. as well, let’s go sign some solid role players to put us in the thick of things. The truth is that we’re not there. They need more time to develop and work on their games before they can get to that level.

The point is that Fox & Bagley still could not reach their potential. What if Fox tops out as a Jeff Teague? What if Bagley becomes a Millsap level player? I wouldn’t bet against these two reaching their potential, but there is still a chance that they don’t develop into star level players. It's naive to think otherwise. If you have locked up all of your cap space with role players this off-season, you don’t have as much flexibility to collect assets in search of drafting a star or trading a collection of those assets for a star that becomes available.


We can keep the entirety of our core on this team for at least the next 5 years
The last and probably the biggest reason why I think we should trade our salary cap for 1st round picks is because we can control our core for at least 5 more years. Barnes is the one exception as he is a unrestricted FA next year, but he seemed to enjoy playing with our guys and has a starting SF spot with his name on it. Hield & Bogdanovic we can keep on this team for at least another 5 years, Fox & Giles we can keep on this team for another 6 years, and Bagley we can keep on this team for another 7 years.

Why are we in such a hurry to go sign veteran role players to help us make the playoffs next season?

If we were in a situation where we were a fringe playoff team but we had Anthony Davis who was becoming an unrestricted free agent in the next off-season or two, then yeah! Go sign some guys that could help the team win today in an attempt to convince Davis to stay.

Luckily, we’re in a position that we don’t have to worry about that for (at most) 4 years. If Hield is bummed out that we didn’t try and sign Lopez and instead we made a salary dump trade for another 1st round pick, guess what? He can’t just walk out the door next off-season. We have the ability to match any offer sheet and keep him on this roster for another 4 years. Sure, he can sign the qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent the next year, but is he really going to be that upset over us accumulating assets vs. signing a 28-32 year old role player to help a core comprised of a 20, 21, 21, 26, 26, & 27 year old? Don’t be silly.


So what are you recommending & how is that going to help us win a title?
If you haven’t picked it up by now, I’m recommending executing some salary dump trades with a couple low key signings to round out the roster. I’ll break it down by the various sections of the off-season.

2019 NBA Draft
  • Trade 2021 SAC 2nd (Top 55 protected) for Timofey Mozgov & #16
  • Draft Bol Bol at #16
  • Trade #46 for Meyers Leonard & #25
  • Draft Mfiondu Kabengele at #25
  • Draft the best wing available at #40 (Bazley, Okpala, Windler, Samanic, Roby, McDaniels, King, Jeffries)
  • Draft & stash a euro player at #60

2019 Free Agency
  • Harrison Barnes opts-in
  • Keep Yogi Ferrell
  • Let Willie Cauley-Stein & Frank Mason walk
  • We’d have $5.6 mil in cap space. Sign Tyus Jones to a $16.5 mil/3 year deal (last year being a team option)
  • Waive/buy-out Timofey Mozgov to open up another roster spot
  • Use the room exception to sign a veteran wing mentor (V. Carter, Sefolosha, Brewer, Dudley, Temple, Shumpert)
2019 Opening Day Roster
PG – Fox / Jones / Ferrell
SG – Hield / Bogdanovic
SF – Barnes / V. Carter / Roby
PF – Bagley / Bjelica / Swanigan
C – Kabengele / Giles / Bol Bol / Leonard

2020 Off-season
Next off-season, Barnes would become an unrestricted free agent and Hield & Bogdanovic would both have a qualifying offer. Bjelica would also have a team option to consider. Barnes would likely cost $14-16 mil/year on his new deal. Hield’s cap hold is $14.5 mil and Bogdanovic’s cap hold is $12.8 mil. Not to mention our 1st round pick next year will likely have a cap hold of around $2 mil. If we resigned Barnes, we’d have about $31 mil in cap space that could be used before needing to resign Hield & Bogdanovic. If we let Bjelica walk, that goes up to $37.2 mil in cap space.

We would have Fox, Jones, Hield, Bogdanovic, Barnes, Roby, Bagley, Bjelica, Swanigan, Giles, Bol Bol, & Kabengele under contract. That’s 13 players already. We still would have our own 1st round pick and four 2nd round picks. I’d still trade our cap space in the 2020 off-season for a 1st or two; however, this time, I’d look to move up in the 2020 draft (rather than add more picks) or look to accumulate future 1st round picks (2021, 2022, 2023). The 2022 draft is rumored to be the famous “double draft” where it will be the first year where high school players can enter directly into the NBA, but the draft class will also include all of the players that had to go to college for at least 1 year (thus the talent pool should theoretically be deeper).

If we are successful at trading away our cap space in the 2020 off-season for future 1st round picks, we could potentially have these assets:

Players
  • Fox
  • Jones
  • Hield
  • Bogdanovic
  • Barnes
  • Roby
  • Bagley
  • Giles
  • Swanigan
  • Bol Bol
  • Kabengele

1st Round Picks
  • 2020 SAC 1st
  • 2021 SAC 1st
  • 2021 1st (from salary dump trade in the 2020 off-season)
  • 2022 SAC 1st
  • 2022 1st (from salary dump trade in the 2020 off-season)

2nd Round Picks
  • 2020 SAC 2nd
  • 2020 MIA 2nd
  • 2020 DET 2nd
  • 2020 HOU 2nd
  • 2021 SAC 2nd
  • 2021 MEM 2nd
  • 2022 SAC 2nd

Summary
That is a ton of assets to work with. They could make a lot of consolidation trades for better players or be a great trading partner for a team that wants to move their star player and rebuild.

I just don’t agree with the idea of overpaying (or paying market value) 28-32 year old role players like Beverley, Joseph, Aminu, Ariza, Lopez, Dedmon, etc. when we are still in a position to collect assets while the team still gets better on the floor every year. Signing the role players is more or less betting on the core we have in place; whereas, this approach is more or so increasing the odds of finding a star either through draft & development (since we have more picks) or through a trade (since we would have a lot assets to attract other teams).
The concept is definitely good, but I don't think we need to go all the way in on trading our cap space for 1st rounders. There's a middle-ground to where we can do both and get a 1st round pick while still picking up a vet who can make an impact this season. And while I firmly believe teams should never be done collecting young talent/asset collection, we are at the point as a team where we do have an established young core (Fox/Buddy/Bagley/Giles) to actually start building around. While it might not be "enough", there's still enough quality talent here that we should be trying to build around it and supplement their skills with good role guys (Pat Bev, Bojan, Dedmon)

The bigger mistake would be giving a massive long-term deal to a Vuc/Harris/DAJ type thinking they're going to be the person to "put us over the top" when in reality it'd just cost us someone in the young core down the line while not really adding much more to wins in the long-term. Unfortunately, I think we'll see Vlade fall for that trap.
 
#5
why would orlando trade us timofey and the #16 for a 2nd rounder? and portland gives us Leonard and #25 for a 2nd rounder? you think these teams do this just for the cap space?
Doesn't necessarily have to be those teams, but there are several teams that are heading to luxury tax hell this coming season. OKC most certainly will try to sell their 1st to clear some of the cap space. Warriors very likely the same if they attempt to get Klay and Durant. And I have a feeling we're going to see teams get really, really stupid trying to sell out for FA and free up as much cap space as possible. So if we were a forward-thinking organization, we'd be trying to capitalize on it.
 
#6
Doesn't necessarily have to be those teams, but there are several teams that are heading to luxury tax hell this coming season. OKC most certainly will try to sell their 1st to clear some of the cap space. Warriors very likely the same if they attempt to get Klay and Durant. And I have a feeling we're going to see teams get really, really stupid trying to sell out for FA and free up as much cap space as possible. So if we were a forward-thinking organization, we'd be trying to capitalize on it.

Which is why I said in another thread we should trade a 2nd for OKC 21st pick and Schroeder, we help OKC tax, get a backup PG, then get good picks at 21,40,and 47 for Backup wing and Big, get Dedmon after we do not match Willie

That way we take care of Backup PG and SF with the trade, 3 2nd rd picks for 3rd string with Yogi and swanigan

Fox,Schoeder,yogi
Buddy,Bogie,40
Barnes,21st,60
Marvin,Bjelly,Swanigan
Willie or Dedmon ,Giles,47
 
#7
We could lose any of our players whenever contracts come up so I can see vlade going many different directions as shown to me in how many prospects he has brought in before the draft.
Not saying he plans on drafting 3 second rounders but I do like the fact he has decided to try and cover any possibility’s that arise. Not bringing in anybody from the middle of the projected first round either says that no one would do it plus we most likely have a few folks we would love to slide down the board into a range we may be able to work a deal on.

We need top level players to move the needle into the playoffs. I see us either going in the direction a team like the Raptors did with bringing in a star and adding it to a good group like we have. We do not have the ability like Lebron has with bringing in stars and then filling the rotation out with whoever and those at the end of their career who wants to get a ring.

but by bringing in non starters or paying just anybody has never worked out for us.
Hopefully Barnes stays and it would be nice if he restructured his contract that May allow us to throw enough money at one of the stars out there (if they would sign).
 
#8
I see where you're coming from but we talked all last season about trading cap space for draft picks and I can't think of one instance where a team traded a first rounder for cap relief.
 
#9
I see where you're coming from but we talked all last season about trading cap space for draft picks and I can't think of one instance where a team traded a first rounder for cap relief.
It's more viable this season with a bunch of teams just in absolute cap hell as we're another year into the repeater tax for several teams.


If the Warriors don't waive Livingston, trading him and their 1st for a 2nd saves them more than $20 mil. They probably waive him though.

I don't see how OKC wouldn't be looking to attach their pick with Ppat and/or Roberson to get them slightly more out of cap hell.
 
#10
I see where you're coming from but we talked all last season about trading cap space for draft picks and I can't think of one instance where a team traded a first rounder for cap relief.
It should be said, this draft starts getting very wonky after about pick 8. Players could go anywhere in that range on. Some mocks have players going near the lottery on one, and in the 2nd round on others. Some players are in the 1st round on one mock and undrafted on another. Also, this is a year where teams are looking to get more space so there might be a possibility of getting a decent 1st. I think the Warriors situation only compounds that possibility since it would appear that a window may have opened in the West.
 

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#11
It's more viable this season with a bunch of teams just in absolute cap hell as we're another year into the repeater tax for several teams.


If the Warriors don't waive Livingston, trading him and their 1st for a 2nd saves them more than $20 mil. They probably waive him though.

I don't see how OKC wouldn't be looking to attach their pick with Ppat and/or Roberson to get them slightly more out of cap hell.
Well, Milwaukee has tied up all of their future picks through 2025, so the best they can do is send #30 this year. I might be well tempted to do that for Ilyasova, as he's only $7M for one year. I'd only do it for Snell if we really thought he was going to be a contributor for the team, and I'm not sure on that.

I imagine the Warriors will just cut Livingston for his $2M guaranteed. They would save a bit more money, back of the envelope maybe $5-6M in salary and tax savings to dump their first rounder and Livingston, but if there's anybody available that they like at #28 that hit is probably worth it to them. (Besides, we know that they would have no problem paying $745M in luxury tax, right?)

OKC is sitting on a much nicer pick there at #21. Patterson for the #21 would be the best value deal of all those mentioned here by far, so I'd say it's probably not on the table. Roberson for #21 is a pretty big payment, basically $10.7M for the pick and a guy who can defend but is virtually unplayable because his shot is brrrrrrrroken. If they want start talking about pick swaps (say, 2021) then I'd be willing to listen.

One big problem as far as I see it in terms of trying to pick up a first-rounder is that we basically haven't worked out any first round talent this year. We might be flying a little blind if we suddenly end up with #21 and end up PapaG'ing the thing.
 
#12
Well, Milwaukee has tied up all of their future picks through 2025, so the best they can do is send #30 this year. I might be well tempted to do that for Ilyasova, as he's only $7M for one year. I'd only do it for Snell if we really thought he was going to be a contributor for the team, and I'm not sure on that.

I imagine the Warriors will just cut Livingston for his $2M guaranteed. They would save a bit more money, back of the envelope maybe $5-6M in salary and tax savings to dump their first rounder and Livingston, but if there's anybody available that they like at #28 that hit is probably worth it to them. (Besides, we know that they would have no problem paying $745M in luxury tax, right?)

OKC is sitting on a much nicer pick there at #21. Patterson for the #21 would be the best value deal of all those mentioned here by far, so I'd say it's probably not on the table. Roberson for #21 is a pretty big payment, basically $10.7M for the pick and a guy who can defend but is virtually unplayable because his shot is brrrrrrrroken. If they want start talking about pick swaps (say, 2021) then I'd be willing to listen.

One big problem as far as I see it in terms of trying to pick up a first-rounder is that we basically haven't worked out any first round talent this year. We might be flying a little blind if we suddenly end up with #21 and end up PapaG'ing the thing.
Agreed, I'd only do it for Ilyasova too.

I can't see GSW trading Livingston with their 1st as they could cut him like you said.

#21 is more than enough to move Roberson. In fact it's probably too much. Crabbe, #17, and a future 1st were moved for Prince & a 2nd. I'd think Prince & a future 2nd are worth about a future 1st which means the price is ~#17 to move a player like Crabbe who makes $18.5 mil. It may be a 3 team deal that has a framework of:

Ilyasova, Roberson, and #21 to the Kings
#30 to OKC
Cap space to MIL

I see POR, ORL, MIL, & OKC as the teams that would be looking to potentially move their 1sts for cap relief.
 
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#13
Well, Milwaukee has tied up all of their future picks through 2025, so the best they can do is send #30 this year. I might be well tempted to do that for Ilyasova, as he's only $7M for one year. I'd only do it for Snell if we really thought he was going to be a contributor for the team, and I'm not sure on that.

I imagine the Warriors will just cut Livingston for his $2M guaranteed. They would save a bit more money, back of the envelope maybe $5-6M in salary and tax savings to dump their first rounder and Livingston, but if there's anybody available that they like at #28 that hit is probably worth it to them. (Besides, we know that they would have no problem paying $745M in luxury tax, right?)

OKC is sitting on a much nicer pick there at #21. Patterson for the #21 would be the best value deal of all those mentioned here by far, so I'd say it's probably not on the table. Roberson for #21 is a pretty big payment, basically $10.7M for the pick and a guy who can defend but is virtually unplayable because his shot is brrrrrrrroken. If they want start talking about pick swaps (say, 2021) then I'd be willing to listen.

One big problem as far as I see it in terms of trying to pick up a first-rounder is that we basically haven't worked out any first round talent this year. We might be flying a little blind if we suddenly end up with #21 and end up PapaG'ing the thing.
I guess and unfortunately it seems like we really value the in-person workout. That speaks to really huge issues in our scouting dept if we aren't prepared to draft anyone in the draft due to unfamiliarity.
 
#15
Im all for the more patient approach if some good deals can be had. If we can nab a decent vet getting dumped due to salary who can fill a hole PLUS get a 1st or more im all for it. I like that approach a lot more than a big contract on Vuc or Harris which would take the focus away from Fox and Bags on Off. THEY are the future and if we are going anywhere need to learn to excel while being the primary movers in our O
 
#16
Kings need to swing for the fences. Butler or Harris. Western Conference was on a down year last season.
Lakers have now put themselves in the playoff conversation. Depending on what Dallas does, they could be as well.

Playoff teams: 2019-20
Dubs: Still have Curry and Green. Thompson will be back around the AS break.
Nugs: A lock
Portland: Second best backcourt in the West and Nurkic back
Lakers: In! Davis, Kuzma, and Lebron are plenty to get in the playoffs. And they have some money to fill out the roster with role players
Utah: Will be looking for another playmaker to add
Houston: For all of the drama, they will still be a playoff team. They have Harden. Period.

The Rest:

Clips: Money for 2 max. Even if they don't get Kawhi, they will land up with at least 1 very good player.
OKC: If they don't make any moves, could miss the playoffs.
Spurs: I never count out Pop. But, they also need another play maker if they want to make the playoffs.
Dallas: Porzingas/Doncic and money for a max player. If they get someone like Kemba. They are in the playoffs.
Kings: Fox, Bagley, and Hield. All need to make a major jump if they hope to contend in the West. No stars. Just potential right now.
NO: Could be a scary playoff team. Heard rumors of trading the 4 pick for Bradley Beal. A lineup of Holiday, Beal, Ingram, and Zion. That's potentially a good team.

Memphis: Rebuild
Minny: Rebuild
Suns: Still a Mess. But, now they have a decent coach.

So ask yourself, if the Kings add a couple decent role players.. Who are they passing in the West to get a playoff spot?
 
#18
Bumping this.

How many people would have liked my offseason plan now?

I think the one callout is that I probably wouldn’t have taken Bol Bol at #16 if I had the medical report that everyone else seemed to have. I would have taken him at #40 though and if I’m being honest with myself, I probably would have gone with Little at #16 (even though he went #25 overall).

I also didn’t anticipate Barnes opting out but I was only prepared to offer him $14-16 mil a year while Vlade gave him $21.25 mil a year! Ouch! If some other team was prepared to offer him that much, I would have let him walk (which would have gave us more cap space for salary dump deals).

I would have been outbid on Jones but that’s pretty minor. We would have had a team like this...

PG – Fox / Ferrell
SG – Hield / Bogdanovic
SF – V. Carter / Little
PF – Bagley / Bjelica / Swanigan
C – Kabengele / Giles / Bol Bol / Leonard

...with a ton of future assets and cap flexibility.

Unfortunately, Vlade and co were not patient with our rebuild. It’s very hard to see how this team could ever get to the level of a championship contender with the way it was handled...
 
#20
In all honesty.

We stink.

So if you look at this as Hinkie would, see everything for what it is....

We've got Fox, Bagley.

Buddy is too old to be on the same continuum, I love the guy, but if you are going to blow it up....

Bogi same boat....

Veterans have negative value, every single one.

Maybe you can get a second for Holmes down the road?

Our assets seam rather meager.
 
#22
Bumping this.

How many people would have liked my offseason plan now?

I think the one callout is that I probably wouldn’t have taken Bol Bol at #16 if I had the medical report that everyone else seemed to have. I would have taken him at #40 though and if I’m being honest with myself, I probably would have gone with Little at #16 (even though he went #25 overall).

I also didn’t anticipate Barnes opting out but I was only prepared to offer him $14-16 mil a year while Vlade gave him $21.25 mil a year! Ouch! If some other team was prepared to offer him that much, I would have let him walk (which would have gave us more cap space for salary dump deals).

I would have been outbid on Jones but that’s pretty minor. We would have had a team like this...

PG – Fox / Ferrell
SG – Hield / Bogdanovic
SF – V. Carter / Little
PF – Bagley / Bjelica / Swanigan
C – Kabengele / Giles / Bol Bol / Leonard

...with a ton of future assets and cap flexibility.

Unfortunately, Vlade and co were not patient with our rebuild. It’s very hard to see how this team could ever get to the level of a championship contender with the way it was handled...
Think it starts with canning Vlade and going from there. I think you could honestly rebuild this on the fly with a real exec at the helm and us getting a quality lotto pick this year. Getting another high 1, a surprisingly good 2nd from the Warriors (from what I'm reading, we get the Warriors 2020 2nd unprotected if its worse than Houston), Detroit 2nd, Fox, Bagley. And while Holmes is older, I think he's a legitimate steal that can be apart of a championship core at very least as a quality 3rd big who can start when needed. Basically need Hinkie type exec with no attachment to anybody that says "Fox/Bagley and future picks. Everyone else can go."

Unfortunately, not gonna happen. Team will regress somewhat to their actual talent levels, we'll win like 30-32 games and be stuck in purgatory again for the next decade.
 

hrdboild

Hall of Famer
#23
Getting another high 1, a surprisingly good 2nd from the Warriors (from what I'm reading, we get the Warriors 2020 2nd unprotected if its worse than Houston), Detroit 2nd, Fox, Bagley.
...

Golden State Warriors: Traded to Mavericks or Kings.
The Mavericks will receive the more favorable of the Warriors’ and Rockets’ second-round picks; the Kings will receive the less favorable of the two picks.
However, if the Rockets’ pick falls within its protected range (31-39), the Kings would instead receive that pick and the Mavericks would receive the Warriors’ pick.
(link)

I think it's more likely we get the Rockets pick given what it says here. The same link shows that we're also owed unprotected 2nd round picks from Detroit and Miami though plus our own pick so that's 4 picks in the 2nd round next year (though 2 of them could be of negligible value).