FiveThirtyEight Project Kings to Finish Last in West

Did these guys have a projection last year? I have a faint recollection that they or some other group did, and that they underestimated Kings' wins by a large margin.
 
The change in strategy along with the jump Fox made was unprecedented.

Anything the team did the year before can almost be thrown out the window, which this model can't do.
 
Yeah, their model seems to underrate the Kings for whatever reason. The article apparently concedes as much.

Interestingly since it was posted earlier today, I think I saw on Twitter that they will be following up with revised projections in a couple weeks.
 
Well considering that we outperformed their projection by 16 wins last year, I'd say this augurs about 49 wins for us.

But honestly, looking at their predictions last year, 10 of 30 were off by 10+ wins. This is not a terribly skillful prediction. It actually turns out to be almost exactly as skillful as the Vegas over/under odds, for whatever that's worth.
 
Bosnian Diehard said:
Their models have us finishing 33-49, good for 15th in the West. They think we win six less games with a deeper roster and you ger talent developing. :rolleyes::rolleyes:
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There is also the issue of two teams in our division getting a lot better. That's 8 games right there. Depending on what you think of Phoenix adding Rubio and Saric to the developing core of Booker, Ayton, and Bridges, they may be a tougher matchup too. These kinds of predictions are usually just based on roster composition. And on paper, the West is going to be a nightmare next season. There's an awful lot of teams who think that they got better this off-season. It'd be disappointing if we finish with less than 40 wins again but I'm not going to act like there's any kind of guarantee either.
 
hrdboild said:
There is also the issue of two teams in our division getting a lot better. That's 8 games right there. Depending on what you think of Phoenix adding Rubio and Saric to the developing core of Booker, Ayton, and Bridges, they may be a tougher matchup too. These kinds of predictions are usually just based on roster composition. And on paper, the West is going to be a nightmare next season. There's an awful lot of teams who think that they got better this off-season. It'd be disappointing if we finish with less than 40 wins again but I'm not going to act like there's any kind of guarantee either.
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If your referring to the Clips and Lakers. I dont think they got a lot better. The Kings went 1-7 against them last year anyways so it really doesn't matter how much better they get this year.
 
hrdboild said:
There is also the issue of two teams in our division getting a lot better. That's 8 games right there. Depending on what you think of Phoenix adding Rubio and Saric to the developing core of Booker, Ayton, and Bridges, they may be a tougher matchup too. These kinds of predictions are usually just based on roster composition. And on paper, the West is going to be a nightmare next season. There's an awful lot of teams who think that they got better this off-season. It'd be disappointing if we finish with less than 40 wins again but I'm not going to act like there's any kind of guarantee either.
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The competition may have gotten better but its not like the Kings have stood pat either. They Kings are without a doubt a better team
now than they were last season.
 
For me our biggest X Factor is the change in coaching. Not entirely sure how we're going to look under Walton. Roster wise we absolutely should be more well-rounded and deeper. I agree with the others in that I don't put much stock in season predictions this early. If I didn't read it in one of Nostradamus's quatrains then why should I believe it? :D
 
I can't believe it. A national media outlet underestimated the Kings. First time that's ever happened.

Worst team in the West? If they're equally uninformed about the rest of the NBA, what use are they?
 
I think the Clippers, Lakers, Rockets, Nuggets and Warriors are virtually a lock in the playoffs barring any fortuitous events, while the Jazz, Blazers, Spurs and Kings,will battle for the last 3 playoff spots. I predict the Kings getting the 7th seed in the West. ;)
 
sergmatt said:
Does 538 ever actually project anything correctly? I mean more than a coin flip?
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2008 Democratic primary and the general election. That is what made Nate Silver and frankly he and 538 have been run of the mill ever since in both the sports and political arenas.
 
The other day I saw ESPN have the KINGS at #20 in the power rankings, behind Orlando, San Antonio, Detroit, Dallas and New Orleans.

It was one thing to underrate them coming into last season, but after a near 40 win season in the very deep West and with an abundance of emerging young talent, these guys can go kick a rock. I'm convinced they don't really follow the NBA outside of about 7-8 select markets.

It's laughable journalism.
 
I'm confused about how that list would even be possible. CARMELO is supposedly awarding a score of about 1500 to the average team. Next year's predictions says that four teams will be very slightly below that, and the rest, slightly above to way, way above. ELO should be a zero sum game, where everybody can't be above average, so not sure what to make of that.
 
I just see the nba as having the same players being shuffled around. The Lakers are a mess and the warriors are just not the same team.

We struggled against teams like the nuggets and clippers last year anyway and we are so much stronger than last year.

Some teams out west have had some major changes and yeah stars will get you some wins if they can stay healthy but because of those new stars they are thin in depth as you have to pay for them.

We have kept our core and filled in with good quality players and did it before the season so they have time together before it starts. Thats tons better than bringing in a key player or two in December and trying to win games while they are adjusting to their new team.

I figure we win somewhere between 44 and 50 games this year.
 
The rankings are directly tied to here: Swipa Projection and here: Bags Projection. They predict a 26% drop in performance for Fox and a 75% increase in performance for Bags (which would result in him being still a below replacement player--from -2.0 to -.5). Barring injury, Fox is going to accelerate and the idea that Bags is a below replacement player is hilarious.

It's wrong. If Vegas comes out with 33 wins, I'm putting a few grand on the over.
 
kb02 said:
The rankings are directly tied to here: Swipa Projection and here: Bags Projection. They predict a 26% drop in performance for Fox and a 75% increase in performance for Bags (which would result in him being still a below replacement player--from -2.0 to -.5). Barring injury, Fox is going to accelerate and the idea that Bags is a below replacement player is hilarious.

It's wrong. If Vegas comes out with 33 wins, I'm putting a few grand on the over.
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Lies, da*n lies and statistics.

You can use numbers to prove any pre-conceived opinion you want to. And because it has numbers in it, many think that's proof enough.
 
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