First Half PERs: Why Having DeMarcus Cousins Has Not Been Enough

[Bricklayer]

PER is an imperfect cipher at best. In fact as an overall productivity measure, you can get into chicken and egg discussions: is a guy terrible at PER because he's terrible? Or because you don't give him the ball. Nonetheless, regardless of the reasons WHY somebody has not been productive, its a solid measure of that productivty, or lack thereof. Accordingly:

Kings PERs
DeMarcus Cousins 9th of 346
--------------------------------
Rudy Gay 59th of 346
Darren Collison 73rd of 346
----------------------------------
Carl Landry 140th of 346
Omri Casspi 154th of 346
----------------------------------
Reggie Evans 245th of 346
Derrick Williams 250th of 346
Ben McLemore 299th of 346
Ray McCallum 304th of 346
Jason Thompson 316th of 346
Ramons Sessions 330th of 346
Nik Stauskas 345th of 346

Which largely equates with exactly what we have seen here. 1 superstar. 2 pretty good #2/#3 weapons who also need out be out there. 2 semi-effective benchers who ironically post-Malone were seemingly intentionally ignored in favor of the great pile of unproductive poo that constistutes the remainder of the bench. The reserve guards are truly epic -- no wonder the bench collapsed every single time when your three bench guard options have the 304th, 330th and 345th (of 346!) PERs in the league.

People might be surprised about Ben being way down there too, but not when you think about it. Even at his best he's a shooter and a man defender. But not a natural passer, he seemed to quit using his athleticism on the boards, and he notches very few steals for a guard. That will be an interesting area to watch BTW, since Karl is already talking about teaching guys to get up and be disruptive on defense, and while Ben's man defense has gotten much better, being disruptive, poking, stealing, gambling, doesn't seem to be part of his natural game.

Anyway, the above is why when people try to blame Boogie for us not winning they are barking up the wrong tree. in fact they don't even have the right forest.

 

[Iced Espresso]

Thanks for putting this up here for everyone to see. I'm not a true believer in PER as always a 100% indicator of some things, like with what you just described with McLemore, but it is still pretty solid.

Thompson and McLemore get unreliable out for me with PER, just not overly important for what they do or are expected to do.

But for the rest looks real bad Brick.

You get some good passing, good rotations, everyone on the court nudges up a little.

So some of our guys not doing to well, would benefit some from some good ball movement, assists etc, but not by an incredible amount or anything.

We need some better guards that's for sure.

 

[Iced Espresso]

What do you think about Evans brick?

They seem to facilitate with him, similar to what Chuck Hayes can do, but Evans seems to stink at. I think when he gets the ball we've had some disastrous results. A big like Aaron last year would knock you out with screens and do simple touch and go passes, it worked, but he had some trouble like you'd get with Evans if you went to him at the wrong time or too much.

Was that more of a poor distribution from Sessions to Evans? Or more team orientated you think? Seems like they've had him at the high post a lot. But maybe it's my eyes.

 

[Bricklayer]

What do you think about Evans brick?

They seem to facilitate with him, similar to what Chuck Hayes can do, but Evans seems to stink at. I think when he gets the ball we've had some disastrous results. A big like Aaron last year would knock you out with screens and do simple touch and go passes, it worked, but he had some trouble like you'd get with Evans if you went to him at the wrong time or too much.

Was that more of a poor distribution from Sessions to Evans? Or more team orientated you think? Seems like they've had him at the high post a lot. But maybe it's my eyes.

I think many of the difficulties with Reggie have stemmed from using him as a backup center, and hence, trying to have him be DeMarcus. Play the same role. Oh, we got a goto post guy with faceup passing skills? Cool, well, while Reggie's in let's keep playing that way. It would be as if the Warriors brought in Shaun Livingston off the bench and had him race up and down the court shooting threes off his dribble. Not a good look.

 

[sdballer]

I think many of the difficulties with Reggie have stemmed from using him as a backup center, and hence, trying to have him be DeMarcus. Play the same role. Oh, we got a goto post guy with faceup passing skills? Cool, well, while Reggie's in let's keep playing that way. It would be as if the Warriors brought in Shaun Livingston off the bench and had him race up and down the court shooting threes off his dribble. Not a good look.

One if the strangest things of both the Malone and Corbin eras. It's like we make no adjustments to our offensive sets regardless of who is playing.

 

[MissingThoseAdelmanDays]

I haven't been able to convert myself into a proponent of analytics whatsoever and I also disagree with the concept of PER.

PER largely measures offensive performance. For example, Bruce Bowen, widely regarded as one of the best defenders in the NBA, routinely posted single-digit PERs. Some have argued that PER gives undue weight to a player's contribution in limited minutes, or against a team's second unit, and it undervalues players who have enough diversity in their game to play starter's minutes.

 

[The_Jamal]

Love using PER for exactly this sort of "snapshot" as you did here Brick, and it tells a pretty accurate story of what we've been seeing on the floor this year. DeMarcus, DC, and Rudy all been pretty good for their respective roles, Casspi and Landry have by far been our best bench players and near the top as far as bench guys are concerned and everyone else is rather bad. Like you pointed out though, PER significantly punishes one or two trick ponies and defense only guys, like JT and Ben are at this point, so they aren't really an accurate reading with PER. My favorite example is Bruce Bowen, an all-time great defender, who spent his entire career having a PER>10.

Question though. Is this everyone in the NBA? Or players with enough minutes to qualify? That would certainly skew rankings a bit.

 

[Chubbs]

That Malone had that team at 9-6 is worthy of coach of the year. It might be the greatest coaching achievement in the history of coaching.

Same with Karl if he gets them anywhere near .500. That's not a playoff team.

 

[Dime Dropper]

Proably the thing I loved most about Karl's presser was when he said about DeMarcus (and clearly I'm paraphrasing): "So DeMarcus needs to be more of a 'rim protector' whatever that means... Well I looked at the stats, and we're clearly far better defensively when DeMarcus is on the floor, so I'm not sure what that means".

I realise that quote is way off, but it was the general sentiment. DeMarcus is an absolute plus defensively now, or at least he was under Malone, so we know he has the ability to be a very good overall defender. I do love that Carl instantly recognised this.

 

[CurseOfTheSalmons]

Interesting use of cipher, but I guess it works.

 

[King Baller]

Brick, concerning your observations on Ben's defense. He does seem to try to stay in front of his guy. I can't recall him just crowding up on anyone trying to bully them or slap at them as the defensive dogs of the NBA are apt to do. That would be a good look for Ben if it did not lead to too many easy hoops for the other team.

 

[ESP47]

What do you think about Evans brick?

They seem to facilitate with him, similar to what Chuck Hayes can do, but Evans seems to stink at. I think when he gets the ball we've had some disastrous results. A big like Aaron last year would knock you out with screens and do simple touch and go passes, it worked, but he had some trouble like you'd get with Evans if you went to him at the wrong time or too much.

Was that more of a poor distribution from Sessions to Evans? Or more team orientated you think? Seems like they've had him at the high post a lot. But maybe it's my eyes.

I think it was because of the lack of playmakers on the court. Of the bench guys, Omri is the only one that was ok at driving and dishing. McCallum can't set anyone up, Stauskas has no confidence but may one day be decent at facilitating, Williams certainly can't facilitate. Sessions was supposed to be the guy to facilitate the ball but for some reason he just completely stunk it up here after having a respectable career as far as dishing assists went. At that point I guess the coaching staff figured maybe putting Evans or Landry at the high post while letting them dish the ball was the best course of action. I wouldn't have done it that way personally but it's not like there are many options when it comes to the bench. Also it's not like we have the most experienced or highest IQ players out there trying to get open while Evans was at the high post.

Andre Miller should help with that if he plays 15-20min a night.

 

[Iced Espresso]

One if the strangest things of both the Malone and Corbin eras. It's like we make no adjustments to our offensive sets regardless of who is playing.

Yeah I despise the Landry contract, but I will give him one out. If he had some lethal shooters around his post play would become a lot more efficient, and so would some of our guards play overall. Is like mixing two things that make each other worse right now with what we have.

 

[Iced Espresso]

I think it was because of the lack of playmakers on the court. Of the bench guys, Omri is the only one that was ok at driving and dishing. McCallum can't set anyone up, Stauskas has no confidence but may one day be decent at facilitating, Williams certainly can't facilitate. Sessions was supposed to be the guy to facilitate the ball but for some reason he just completely stunk it up here after having a respectable career as far as dishing assists went. At that point I guess the coaching staff figured maybe putting Evans or Landry at the high post while letting them dish the ball was the best course of action. I wouldn't have done it that way personally but it's not like there are many options when it comes to the bench. Also it's not like we have the most experienced or highest IQ players out there trying to get open while Evans was at the high post.

Andre Miller should help with that if he plays 15-20min a night.

After reading your comments and Brick's its painting a clearer picture for me at least.

I'm not sure what is the best course of action today, but in the off season a lethal shooter off then bench and a facilitator looks like it would do everyone else wonders.

Fortunately we should be able to find two guys like that cheap enough to still have some cap space to possibly sign a bigger name.

 

[Iced Espresso]

After reading your comments and Brick's its painting a clearer picture for me at least.

I'm not sure what is the best course of action today, but in the off season a lethal shooter off then bench and a facilitator looks like it would do everyone else wonders.

Fortunately we should be able to find two guys like that cheap enough to still have some cap space to possibly sign a bigger name.

Yeah looks like with Sessions gone we will be at 52 million, if we target the 70 million mark, we've got about 4 million per for them, and around 10 plus/minus their costs to improve with a bigger name and our draft pick.

 

[bajaden]

PER is an imperfect cipher at best. In fact as an overall productivity measure, you can get into chicken and egg discussions: is a guy terrible at PER because he's terrible? Or because you don't give him the ball. Nonetheless, regardless of the reasons WHY somebody has not been productive, its a solid measure of that productivty, or lack thereof. Accordingly:

Kings PERs
DeMarcus Cousins 9th of 346
--------------------------------
Rudy Gay 59th of 346
Darren Collison 73rd of 346
----------------------------------
Carl Landry 140th of 346
Omri Casspi 154th of 346
----------------------------------
Reggie Evans 245th of 346
Derrick Williams 250th of 346
Ben McLemore 299th of 346
Ray McCallum 304th of 346
Jason Thompson 316th of 346
Ramons Sessions 330th of 346
Nik Stauskas 345th of 346

Which largely equates with exactly what we have seen here. 1 superstar. 2 pretty good #2/#3 weapons who also need out be out there. 2 semi-effective benchers who ironically post-Malone were seemingly intentionally ignored in favor of the great pile of unproductive poo that constistutes the remainder of the bench. The reserve guards are truly epic -- no wonder the bench collapsed every single time when your three bench guard options have the 304th, 330th and 345th (of 346!) PERs in the league.

People might be surprised about Ben being way down there too, but not when you think about it. Even at his best he's a shooter and a man defender. But not a natural passer, he seemed to quit using his athleticism on the boards, and he notches very few steals for a guard. That will be an interesting area to watch BTW, since Karl is already talking about teaching guys to get up and be disruptive on defense, and while Ben's man defense has gotten much better, being disruptive, poking, stealing, gambling, doesn't seem to be part of his natural game.

Anyway, the above is why when people try to blame Boogie for us not winning they are barking up the wrong tree. in fact they don't even have the right forest.

I have no idea what any Kings player does to prepare for a game defensively, so I'm reluctant to criticize a player for not doing something based on speculation on my part. However, to play good defense, you have to know who your guarding. Not only your assignment for the game, but who you might get switched on to. To know your enemy is to defeat him. That's why Patton read all of Rommel's books on warfare. So I wonder how much time Kings players spend watching film of their opponent. I bring it up in reference to your comment about McLemore improving on man to man defense, but not getting steals or just poking the ball away. I think if you know your man's tendencies, your more likely to make those things happen. Just a thought.

In general I always go back to Larry Bird who despite not being the greatest athlete in the world, was a good defender, and he was a big believer in watching film. He said if he likes to go right, make him go left. If he likes to shoot from the right elbow, deny him that spot. In general, make him uncomfortable, and never, never, let him go baseline.

 

[bajaden]

I think many of the difficulties with Reggie have stemmed from using him as a backup center, and hence, trying to have him be DeMarcus. Play the same role. Oh, we got a goto post guy with faceup passing skills? Cool, well, while Reggie's in let's keep playing that way. It would be as if the Warriors brought in Shaun Livingston off the bench and had him race up and down the court shooting threes off his dribble. Not a good look.

I agree 100%. Reggie is like a fish out of water when you try and run the post game through him, and he shouldn't be used as a backup center. I realize that their options were limited at times and that Hollins should be someone's gardener instead playing in the NBA. However, I don't want to see Evans on the court at the same time as Cousins either, which makes using him in any capacity more difficult. If you watch Evans closely when on the floor with Cousins, he never leaves the general area of the basket, and when Cuz gets the ball, and starts to post up, Reggie starts moving toward the basket for a possible rebound, thereby allowing his defender to switch off and double on Cousins. At times causing Cuz to be triple teamed. Which is why I think we should let Reggie walk at the end of the season. I like him, but he doesn't fit on this team.

 

[bajaden]

Yeah I despise the Landry contract, but I will give him one out. If he had some lethal shooters around his post play would become a lot more efficient, and so would some of our guards play overall. Is like mixing two things that make each other worse right now with what we have.

I'm not going to defend Landry's contract, nor his signing, but to be fair to him, when he's been healthy, and gotten minutes, he's played pretty well. He certainly hasn't been a liability. He's shooting 52% overall from the floor, and he rebounds decently. His defense is what it is. You don't want to match him up against players like Nowitski or Aldridge. He can't guard a Pau Gasol. Do I wish we could move him? You bet, but he's far from the reason we've been bad.

Out of curiosity, I wonder how much the per numbers would change if we had less isolation and better ball and player movement. I mean its easy to single out someone like JT, and say he doesn't contribute much on offense, while at the same time, he takes less than 5 shots a game. Gay sometimes takes more than 5 shots in the first quarter. Not a knock on Gay, or Cuz. They're doing what their being asked to do. I'm curious to see what the per numbers will be for the last 30 games, if indeed we do have better ball movement and more involvement by the rest of the players.

 

[Iced Espresso]

I'm not going to defend Landry's contract, nor his signing, but to be fair to him, when he's been healthy, and gotten minutes, he's played pretty well. He certainly hasn't been a liability. He's shooting 52% overall from the floor, and he rebounds decently. His defense is what it is. You don't want to match him up against players like Nowitski or Aldridge. He can't guard a Pau Gasol. Do I wish we could move him? You bet, but he's far from the reason we've been bad.

Out of curiosity, I wonder how much the per numbers would change if we had less isolation and better ball and player movement. I mean its easy to single out someone like JT, and say he doesn't contribute much on offense, while at the same time, he takes less than 5 shots a game. Gay sometimes takes more than 5 shots in the first quarter. Not a knock on Gay, or Cuz. They're doing what their being asked to do. I'm curious to see what the per numbers will be for the last 30 games, if indeed we do have better ball movement and more involvement by the rest of the players.

I think PER has some quality uses, can be extremely useful, as long as you sort and document asterisks, and to do that you'd have to be an avid fan and at least pretty knowledgeable about the sport itself.

Me or you going to another team who only half of the roster do we know well and trying to make much of a team analysis would be pretty poor in quality, unless you know enough about basketball you can guess right.

I'd stick with just the Kings and start sampling some now.

Take Malone's 9-6.

Take 15 from Corbin

Take Karl's first 15

Take Karl's last 15.

That would be pretty interesting.

 

[bajaden]

I think PER has some quality uses, can be extremely useful, as long as you sort and document asterisks, and to do that you'd have to be an avid fan and at least pretty knowledgeable about the sport itself.

Me or you going to another team who only half of the roster do we know well and trying to make much of a team analysis would be pretty poor in quality, unless you know enough about basketball you can guess right.

I'd stick with just the Kings and start sampling some now.

Take Malone's 9-6.

Take 15 from Corbin

Take Karl's first 15

Take Karl's last 15.

That would be pretty interesting.

I have a lot of problems with Per numbers which I won't go into now. I do think they can be useful at times, but when you take a player that only plays 12 minutes a game, and some of that is in garbage time, I think his per's are useless. However, you take a player that plays 25 meaningful minutes a game, then they become somewhat useful. Nothing beats seeing a player with your own eyes. What kind of system does he play in. How many assisted shots a game does he get. So on and so on. There's a lot of grey area there. But if you can find some commonality between two players, then you might have a good compraison between the two.

I think the system the players play in can have a great deal to do with their results. As a result, I'm curious to see if Karls system improves the per of players not named Cousins or Gay. I'm not worried about them.

 

[rainmaker]

In general I always go back to Larry Bird who despite not being the greatest athlete in the world, was a good defender, and he was a big believer in watching film. He said if he likes to go right, make him go left. If he likes to shoot from the right elbow, deny him that spot. In general, make him uncomfortable, and never, never, let him go baseline.

Doug was on the radio yesterday and echoed those exact sentiments. When asked what he'd tell Ben to take him to the next level defensively, it was all off-court stuff. Get in the film room, study your opponent, take away his strengths, understand what the other team is trying to do and wants to do, take that away, know the tendencies of the other wings/guards in case you get switched on them. And it all goes back to the argument that most of defense is heart/effort because false. Most of defense is the preparation before the ball even tips off, then comes the effort in executing all the preparation you've put in.

This btw is why I'm all for Payton being added to our staff if Doug isn't. Payton is underrated as a thinker of the game and in his preparation. If he or Doug can pass that on to Ben it'd be a huge bonus both to us and Ben. But the NBA is littered with athletic wings with size/athleticism who aren't good defenders, while a guy like Allen or Sefolosha is. A large part of that is preparation and hours spent studying your opponents and various offensive systems. That's what separates the best from the rest, at least in terms of wing/perimeter defenders. Shot blocking is a little different.

 

[The_Jamal]

Doug was on the radio yesterday and echoed those exact sentiments. When asked what he'd tell Ben to take him to the next level defensively, it was all off-court stuff. Get in the film room, study your opponent, take away his strengths, understand what the other team is trying to do and wants to do, take that away, know the tendencies of the other wings/guards in case you get switched on them. And it all goes back to the argument that most of defense is heart/effort because false. Most of defense is the preparation before the ball even tips off, then comes the effort in executing all the preparation you've put in.

This btw is why I'm all for Payton being added to our staff if Doug isn't. Payton is underrated as a thinker of the game and in his preparation. If he or Doug can pass that on to Ben it'd be a huge bonus both to us and Ben. But the NBA is littered with athletic wings with size/athleticism who aren't good defenders, while a guy like Allen or Sefolosha is. A large part of that is preparation and hours spent studying your opponents and various offensive systems. That's what separates the best from the rest, at least in terms of wing/perimeter defenders. Shot blocking is a little different.

Yes and no. It's partly just having a knack for it and athleticism, but there's a big difference in being an impactful shot blocker (like a DeAndre Jordan/Serge Ibaka) and a non-impactful shotblocker (Javale McGee/Sam Dalembert before he declined, etc). Being an impactful shot-blocker is not just stuffing a couple guys a game and being a sieve the rest of the game (like McGee and Dalembert and a few other guys are), but being that presence in the paint and being a massive deterent to anyone wanting to drive in the lane. That's how MG won his DPOY; dude just never gave an inch to anyone wanting to drive in the lane and was always in superior position as a help defender.

Completly agree that defense is all about how much prep you put in off the court. It's a big reason why guys like Paul Pierce and KG, who are signicantly slower than they were in their primes, are still effective and + defenders. They have superior footwork and knowledge on defense.