Evaluating DeMarcus Cousins' career potential.

[chaps]

My non-Kings fans seem to think I overrate Cousins a little bit. Am I the only one who thinks the sky is the limit for this kid? He has superstar potential written all over him. Hell, he might already be there as we speak.

Averaging 18 points & 11 boards in the NBA in only 30 minutes of playing time is very good. It becomes great when you take into consideration that he was young enough to be a Junior at Kentucky.

So, do you expect Boogie to average 20 & 10 as soon as 2012-2013? Also, what do you expect from him when he will be in his prime?

 

[KingsFanSince85]

I take outside opinions of DeMarcus with a grain of salt. Due to his reputation and demeanor on the court, he's one of those players people love when he's on their team but hate when he's not.

I tend to take his peers opinion more seriously, since they actually play against him, and many of them seem to have a high opinion of his game as well as his overall potential.

 

[PurpleHaze]

I just hope when Boogie is in his dominate prime he'll still be a King (THE KING) and the team will still be in Sacramento.

 

[HereWeBoogie]

He will be an All-Star this upcoming season. guarantee it

 

[rhythmless]

Potential? Perennial all star. Not a top 10 center all time. Hall of fame dependent on amount of championships.

DMC is a huge body with boundless offensive skill, hampered only by his below average athleticism and iffy dedication to his shape. If he stays healthy, there's no reason why he can't be a 20k/10k member. His blocks, assists need to come up, his fg needs to be over 50%. He needs to stop gambling and be more consistent on defense. These are the factors that determine whether he will be a passing 20/10 big man (ZBo/big Al/Brand) or someone remembered for more.

 

[DesertFox]

I expect his rebound numbers to stay the same, his points to go up slightly, but his FG% sky rocket. Cuz should be a 22/12 in 33 minutes kind of guy. All while shooting 55%, with 3 assists, and 3 blocks+steals.

His (missed) putbacks hurt his fg% and inflated his offensive rebound numbers a bit, so I expect a leveling off effect there. He's not a freak athlete, so I can't see a shaq or wilt run of dominance, but something close to the peak years of Al Jefferson and Yao Ming.

 

[Npliam]

I expect his rebound numbers to stay the same, his points to go up slightly, but his FG% sky rocket. Cuz should be a 22/12 in 33 minutes kind of guy. All while shooting 55%, with 3 assists, and 3 blocks+steals.

His (missed) putbacks hurt his fg% and inflated his offensive rebound numbers a bit, so I expect a leveling off effect there. He's not a freak athlete, so I can't see a shaq or wilt run of dominance, but something close to the peak years of Al Jefferson and Yao Ming.

I agree with the comparisons.

 

[Bricklayer]

My non-Kings fans seem to think I overrate Cousins a little bit. Am I the only one who thinks the sky is the limit for this kid? He has superstar potential written all over him. Hell, he might already be there as we speak.

Averaging 18 points & 11 boards in the NBA in only 30 minutes of playing time is very good. It becomes great when you take into consideration that he was young enough to be a Junior at Kentucky.

So, do you expect Boogie to average 20 & 10 as soon as 2012-2013? Also, what do you expect from him when he will be in his prime?

In another active thread I mentioned that there are only a handful of big men who have ever been as productive as Cousins at such a young age -- Shaq, Duncan, Spencer Hayes and Blake Griffith. He's had coaches saying he should average 15-20rebs/gm, and HOFers saying he should average ridiculous 30/15 type numbers. I like to push back from such outrageous numbers until they actually happen, although I can see 15reb, I really can.

Meanwhile after the All Star break last year Cousins averaged:
31.5min 19.8pts (.459 .677) 10.6reb 2.2ast 1.7stl 1.1blk 2.5TO 3.9Fl

at age 21. As basically a junior in college.

He should blow up big and loud this year. My biggest fear for how that does not happen is Geoff Petrie's ridiculous accumulation of chuckers on this team. I will fully support Cuz if he chokes/dismembers one or more scrawny chucking teammates this season if they start throwing junk at the rim rather than giving him the ball. I'm talking if he's keeping the eyeballs of his former teammtes in his fridge I'm still in his corner level of support. Franchises wait decades to have a center this talented fall into their laps. Unless they are the Lakers of course. And the thing that must be said here is if DeMarcus fully emerges next year, that alone can make us a competitive team almost no matter how badly the rest of the team is constructed. We'll never be really good bumbling about as we are and with little defense in sight, but a great center in and of himself can make you dangerous every night.

 

[Bricklayer]

I expect his rebound numbers to stay the same, his points to go up slightly, but his FG% sky rocket. Cuz should be a 22/12 in 33 minutes kind of guy. All while shooting 55%, with 3 assists, and 3 blocks+steals.

His (missed) putbacks hurt his fg% and inflated his offensive rebound numbers a bit, so I expect a leveling off effect there. He's not a freak athlete, so I can't see a shaq or wilt run of dominance, but something close to the peak years of Al Jefferson and Yao Ming.

He's better than both.

Moses would be the appropriate comparison in a lot of ways, except Cousins is more talented offensively, or at least has a much wider range of abilities.

But he's never going to shoot 55%. Never ever. That's not what he is. That's for guys who are limited dunkers or Shaq types who play right on the rim. Cousins on the other hand has the all court offensive skills of an elite PF in the body of a huge center. If he gets into the 49-50% range he will be doing well.

 

[DesertFox]

He's better than both.

Moses would be the appropriate comparison in a lot of ways, except Cousins is more talented offensively, or at least has a much wider range of abilities.

But he's never going to shoot 55%. Never ever. That's not what he is. That's for guys who are limited dunkers or Shaq types who play right on the rim. Cousins on the other hand has the all court offensive skills of an elite PF in the body of a huge center. If he gets into the 49-50% range he will be doing well.

I see your point, as Cuz's range extends out beyond 15 feet, but at the same time, that's not what I hope his game progresses to. He's not a Garnett or Webber, who will draw guys out and then blow by them to the hoop. I'd rather Cuz perfect his touch inside 8 feet.

I'm fine with Cuz taking his 4-5 jumpers, but if his shots increase, they should be those hooks and flips like what Yao and even Moses used to do. Those will get him that efficienct fg%. Even Karl Malone, who won MVP's with fading jumpers, shot a good % because he drew fouls when he couldn't get a clean look.

 

[Telemachus]

I think that Cousins is going to have a break out year this season (barring injury). I think that 25/13 is a realistic goal for him this season. Of course, that will mean that the Kings will have to have a more structured half court game. Having a full training camp should help establish that IMO. Of course, we camp out of training camp last season (under Westphal) with the team having no idea what they were supposed to do on either side the court.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

hampered only by his below average athleticism

I believe this to be a bit of an overstatement. I'd say he's at least average. In regards to basketball, I think a lot of people incorrectly associate athleticism with jumping ability. While Cousins is in no way a big leaper, he is pretty athletic considering his size. He has good agility and runs the floor very well.

But he's never going to shoot 55%. Never ever. That's not what he is. That's for guys who are limited dunkers or Shaq types who play right on the rim. Cousins on the other hand has the all court offensive skills of an elite PF in the body of a huge center. If he gets into the 49-50% range he will be doing well.

Completely agree with this.

 

[Kingster]

If he has poise and patience with the ball, he's going to have a great year. That's what it's all about with Cousins. Then he will have better shot selection, then his assists go up, his turnovers go down, and most of all, he'll get this team a lot more wins. He's been around the block a couple of times now. He knows what the deal is. He just has to have the self-control in order to do it. It's all on him. Smart has geared the offense around him. He's got a good pick and roll/pop guy in IT to get him good shots. About the only thing he doesn't have are guaranteed money outside shooters at the 2 and the 3 to open up the inside for him even more. But with his versatility and ability to go outside, it shouldn't matter much. It's all there for the taking.

PS On the defensive end, Cousins must exert more leadership ability by calling out screens and making the proper switches. He has great anticipation and very good lateral quickness for a guy his size. Hopefully, as the center of the defense, he's going to make as much or more improvement next year on defense than on offense.

 

[dmj]

I expect his rebound numbers to stay the same, his points to go up slightly, but his FG% sky rocket. Cuz should be a 22/12 in 33 minutes kind of guy. All while shooting 55%, with 3 assists, and 3 blocks+steals.

His (missed) putbacks hurt his fg% and inflated his offensive rebound numbers a bit, so I expect a leveling off effect there. He's not a freak athlete, so I can't see a shaq or wilt run of dominance, but something close to the peak years of Al Jefferson and Yao Ming.

The only way his FG% skyrockets is if he stops trying to play like a finesse 4. In other words, stop taking so many mid-range jumpers and stop trying to take guys off the dribble. He doesn't have the skill-set or athletic profile to play the game that way, not successfully at least.

If he is going to reach his potential then he needs to return to his roots as a low post player with his back to the basket.

 

[Glenn]

I might as well weigh in. I think his rebounds will go up and his scoring also. Rebounding seems to be a natural skill for him. I don't want him to give up the mid range shot if only because he has picture perfect form and hits a pretty decent percentage. I don't think he will park himself in the low post anyway. Having an inside and outside game increases the potency of both. Barring unforseen circumstances, he will dominate for many years. I made the "mistake" of saying he was HOA material in his rookie year. Of course many things will happen but so far he is on that pathway. It is a shame that a man's worth is dependent so much on how many rings he has. That little item may stop him more than his skill level. He needs the ball no matter whether he is inside or outside as I expect his passing game to improve also. He's really difficult to stop.

Defensively, he will calm down and I suspect the reach in fouls that seem to follow a bad call or a screw up on his part will subside. As to the technicals, I kinda don't care. Pretty soon officials will see he has a point a lot of the time and start to give him calls.

As to his FG%, it will go up if he shows more patience. He has to realize that once he gets the ball down low, he is unstoppable and doesn't need to hurry. That should improve hifs FG%

 

[Bricklayer]

The only way his FG% skyrockets is if he stops trying to play like a finesse 4. In other words, stop taking so many mid-range jumpers and stop trying to take guys off the dribble. He doesn't have the skill-set or athletic profile to play the game that way, not successfully at least.

If he is going to reach his potential then he needs to return to his roots as a low post player with his back to the basket.

You guys amuse me. You complain about precisely what makes him so special, the whole reason he is such a magical talent. He can do both. Very few, if any, centers have ever been able to say that.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

As to his FG%, it will go up if he shows more patience. He has to realize that once he gets the ball down low, he is unstoppable and doesn't need to hurry. That should improve hifs FG%

Spot on. He's made it easier for guys like Serge Ibaka and Marcus Camby to guard or provide help defense on him. Once he gets the ball in the paint, he needs to slow down and take advantage of his size, strength and power. Quite often he rushes to get the shot up and the quick leapers like Ibaka get him. However, if he learns to come to a quick stop after his initial move and mix in the occassional pump fake, he'll get those guys off their feet. At that point, he can take advantage of his size by overpowering the defender. If he mixes that into his game more often, the quick leapers won't be so eager to leave their feet on his initial move.

 

[Arkitect]

The area DMC most needs to work on is putting the ball in the basket when he is at the rim and within 3 - 9 feet. He percentages at that range are terrible. He put it in at 56% at the rim and 30% between 3 - 9 feet. Dwight/Bynum put it in the hoop around 70% at the rim and in the 40%+ range between 3 - 9 feet. At the rim is really hurt by his lack of leaping ability and between 3 - 9 feet is lack of a go to move, which is something he has the potential to develop. His lack of leaping ability is helped by the fact that he has the ability to get his own misses with his great body control. So his numbers may be a bit worse than the rate he is able to score. He has an excellent jump shot for a center and has enough quickness to take other centers off the dribble. Combine the jump shot with more discipline and coaching down low, he could be one of the most potent offensive centers of all time.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

You guys amuse me. You complain about precisely what makes him so special, the whole reason he is such a magical talent. He can do both. Very few, if any, centers have ever been able to say that.

I also don't understand why people are complaining about his ability to play out on the perimeter. He has an excellent 15-18 foot jump shot and the ability to drive past his defender once they start reacting to that shot. That's where the patience Glenn and I are referring to comes into play. If he slows down a bit once he gets by his man and the help defender comes over, he'll start finishing better as well as draw more fouls.

Regardless, playing like a PF, as someone suggested, is exactly what he should be doing. There aren't many Centers, if any, that can defend him off the dribble. And if the opposition's coach puts their PF on him, he can easily overpower them in the post. There's no way a 230, 240 pound guy such as Ibaka or Aldridge can keep Cuz from backing them down.

Cuz's game should be a mix of Chris Webber meets Shaquille O'Neal. Let's not forget his passing ability, which is better utilized when he faces up from the elbow.

Just how good would Cuz look in the old Pete Carrill motion offense with backdoor cutters?

 

[Telemachus]

The area DMC most needs to work on is putting the ball in the basket when he is at the rim and within 3 - 9 feet. He percentages at that range are terrible. He put it in at 56% at the rim and 30% between 3 - 9 feet. Dwight/Bynum put it in the hoop around 70% at the rim and in the 40%+ range between 3 - 9 feet. At the rim is really hurt by his lack of leaping ability and between 3 - 9 feet is lack of a go to move, which is something he has the potential to develop. His lack of leaping ability is helped by the fact that he has the ability to get his own misses with his great body control. So his numbers may be a bit worse than the rate he is able to score. He has an excellent jump shot for a center and has enough quickness to take other centers off the dribble. Combine the jump shot with more discipline and coaching down low, he could be one of the most potent offensive centers of all time.

I don't think Cousins' leaping ability has much to do with how he finished around the basket. His problem has been a lack of patience which is very normal for a young player (especially a center). Being patient will not only help him to get up better shots (helping his FG%), but will also help him get to the FT line more often as well. Both of these will help his scoring effeciency.

 

[spudfan]

He should be able to improve his percentage at the rim. The percentage is a bit misleading though. Anyone who watches Cousins knows how many offensive rebounds he gets... many coming from multiple tip-in attempts following up his miss or other misses.

 

[mac]

He should be able to improve his percentage at the rim. The percentage is a bit misleading though. Anyone who watches Cousins knows how many offensive rebounds he gets... many coming from multiple tip-in attempts following up his miss or other misses.

Which would mean that as FG% increases ORPG will decrease, no?

 

[spudfan]

Which would mean that as FG% increases ORPG will decrease, no?

True. Anyone know if there is a stat that shows offensive rebounds from team shots vs own?

 

[CruzDude]

Cuz success and chances to be an All-Star will be in direct proportion to his maturing and learning on the court. How long he becomes an All-Star will result from his year-to-year improvements playing on the court. Learning is one thing. Translating that to on-floor improvement is another thing all together.

For example, learning to put back each offensive rebound at the basket for 2 points or a 3-point play is better than 3 offensive rebounds then missing most of them for no points. (Please, no arguments on actual numbers, this is a relative statement). He takes the most charges in the NBA but he also makes nearly the most as well. Cutting down on his own charges will show maturing and learning how better to control himself.

If Cuz outplays Bynum then he should be in for All-Star IF KingsFans get behind him if he deserves it.