I'll be the one guy to say it I guess, but there is quite a bit of risk involved with deals this size regardless of how good the player was last season. Just look at the bradley beal thread, there's more people discussing his contract than his on-court merits, if you think Sabonis is immune to that sort of treatment I say just wait n see.
Let me just outline how I'd think this would end up being an underwhelming deal for the Kings, its actually quite simple really, it looks a whole lot like that playoff series vs the Warriors. Sabonis has averaged 12 rebounds the last 4 seasons, he was held under that number in 5 out of 7 playoff games. He's picking up lots of fouls in that series and obviously not making his jumpers either, so thats pretty much it, the worst case scenario, we've already seen it, he didnt even really play that great in the game 6 we won too, our back court did the heavy lifting that game for certain.
He is the starting C in the league with the shortest wingspan, one of the ways he nullifies this disadvantage is using his body and positioning proper and all the fundamentals. But can he hold those advantages vs all opponents? sure seemed like a struggle vs Keevon Looney.. And a very important follow up question is can he play that kind of physical ball without picking up too many fouls? Your 20 million dollar center getting into foul trouble early isnt quite the same as your 50 million dollar center getting into foul trouble early --- i sure hope this contract hasn't doomed us to sitting around and blaming the refs! He's never picked up as many fouls in his career as he has for the Kings, and he averaged 4 PF's per game in the playoffs..
My biggest worry, by far, is If we have a situation where we're signing a player who grabs a ton of rebounds over the course of the season thru high volume on a high paced team, where he's got sorta combo-forwards like KM and Barnes who arent exactly noted rebounders at the PF position, and then when we hit the playoffs teams are able to gameplan and go big to shut that down much better. I've always brought that up when discussing Sabonis at C, and in the regular season it worked great but in that playoff series it did manifest.
Now the good news is clearly we're pretty much running it back, if the rebounding rears its ugly head in the playoffs next season as it did this one, we can of course change things up and account for that.
The other thing that makes me wonder is just, we're sorta in bed with small-ball now, and with Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren aroudn the west should also be taller. We'll see. should be fun. Dont mean to be a wet blanket but lets not just pretend we just won the championship because we signed the guy, still a whole lotta roads to cross.