Here's the thing boiled down: WCS has the potential to be dynamic, a factor. Jason rarely was, and in recent years, that one out of the blue 20/20 goodbye kiss aside, had really settled back into largely being just a pretty good man defender you bought time with.
JT is a lot of ways is actually a good guy to compare almost any NBA big to, because JT might be the league's most mediocre big. He's right near the centerline at just about everything:
-- slightly subpar scorer (more subpar in Boogie's shadow), but a far cry from a Biyombo. Has the little jumper. An occasional post move.
-- slightly above average rebounder, but only rarely a factor
-- entirely average passer/ballhandler. Again not a Biyombo. Also not a Gasol. Can make an occasional good pass.
-- entirely mediocre rim protector, no impact, but not a Love like stub
-- above average man defender, but comes and goes
And deadly consistent. Aside from Boogie eating up the frontcourt touches, JT, a few refinements aside, has always been the same guy.
Per 36 min:
08-09: 14.2pts (.540TS%) 9.5reb 1.5ast 0.7stl 0.9blk 2.3TO 4.9Fl
09-10: 14.3pts (.518TS%) 9.7reb 1.8ast 0.6stl 1.1blk 2.1TO 4.3Fl
10-11: 13.7pts (.533TS%) 9.4reb 1.9ast 0.6stl 0.9blk 2.0TO 4.4Fl
11-12: 12.7pts (.558TS%) 9.6reb 1.7ast 0.9stl 1.0blk 1.5TO 3.2Fl
12-13: 14.0pts (.533TS%) 8.6reb 1.3ast 0.8stl 1.0blk 1.6TO 3.6Fl
13-14: 10.5pts (.523TS%) 9.5reb 1.0ast 0.6stl 1.0blk 1.7TO 4.5Fl
14-15: 8.9pts (.500TS%) 9.6reb 1.5ast 0.6stl 1.0blk 1.5TO 4.3Fl
you can see the offense dying off in recent years, a slight improvement on the youthful turnovers, which is to be expected (and might also have to do with the fewer touches). An improvement a few years back in the foul rate, but it bounced back up I think when Malone got him trying harder on defense. But in general absolutely steady as she goes. He's the great neutral. The great placeholder. Some years he's made us better, some not, depending entirely on surrounding personnel in the chaos.
So given The Great Placeholder, you can riff off of that pretty easily with any new player.
in Summer League WCS put up:
22.4min 11.4pts (.512 .000 .650) 5.4reb 0.6ast 04stl 2.8blk 0.8TO 3.2FL
now that's summer league. The numbers won't directly translate (nor will they catch his ability as a team defender/harasser), but I think a few lessons can be learned:
-- WCS is decently smart and sophisticated for a rookie.
-- he's not going to be asked to score at that rate for us with Boogie out there. In fact there was no particular display of faceup shooting, so as expected we are going to lose a bit of that, but only a bit (JT averaged 8.9pts per 36, there's not much to lose). But he's going to get hoops just from running the floor and hustle plays. Could easily match JT's 9-10pts per46 of the last few years, and will probably do it more efficiently, as his .512FG% was pulled down by attempts to post in SL. As just a dunker he could be 10pts/36 on .600FG%. Like JT he may add a post move occasionally, but nothing worth worrying about.
-- the 5.4reb in 22.4min translates to 8.7reb per 36 min, and that was in SL. There will be some falloff there from JT I think. JT was slightly above average, Trill may well be slightly below average. Perhaps a 7-8 per 36 type rebounder. I doubt its enough to really worry about given JT's modest numbers, but its maybe what you watch.
-- he's likely to be a similar level passer. The JT once was a guard thing might give Jason a slight edge, but again no real impact, and WCS seems smart enough to make an occasional saavy pass too. Close enough and such a small part of their games you can safely call it a wash.
-- he rarely turned it over in summer league. Given his off the ball game there's a good chance turnovers won't be any kind of negative factor for him the way they could be for Jason.
-- 3.2Fls in 22.4 translates to roughly 5.0Fls per 36. Now SL is a different animal when it comes to fouls, but that still would not be a huge surprise for an active defensive rookie. I would not expect WCS to be terribly out of JTs range as a fouler, either better or worse.
-- and then of course there's the shotblocking, and the overall defensive activity and length. And this is of course the huge key. He's got a calling card. if you lined the two guys up you might guess:
Scoring: JT = WCS
Shooting: JT > WCS
Passing: JT = WCS
Rebounding: JT >> WCS
Turnovers: WCS > JT
Fouls: JT = WCS
Man Defense: JT > WCS
Help Defense: WCS >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> JT
And in the end its having that portfolio which could make this a blowout comparison. Great players win, or players that are great at something. WCS is great at something. JT is just a big body eating minutes. Now if WCS turns out to be horribly deficient at some part of the game then if it got bad enough it could outweight the thing he's great at. But he doesn't appear to have that weakness. The rebounding is going to be the biggest thing to watch. but it more figures to be subpar then terrible, and some of that subpar might be attributable to the good things he's doing as a help defender, and he's going to be playing alongside DeMarcus Cousins and Kosta Koufos who will both thump you on the glass.
JT last year put up:
24.6min 6.1pts (.470 .000 .622) 6.5reb 1.0ast 0.4stl 0.7blk 1.0TO 3.0Fl
given those same min this year a Cauley Stein line might read:
24.6min 6.5pts (.565 .000 .650) 4.9reb 0.8ast 0.5stl 1.7blk 0.7TO 3.4Fl
given low starters minutes it might end up:
30.5min 9.7pts (.565 .000 .650) 6.9reb 1.3ast 0.7stl 2.3blk 1.0TO 4.3Fl
think John Salley maybe.
