sactowndog
All-Star
Today is coin flip day. Our draft position can vary from 8-10. Falling two draft spots is not insignificant.
Coin flip day today.
- Thread starter sactowndog
- Start date
iowamcnabb
Hall of Famer
and just to confirm, regardless of where we fall we still have equal odds to land in the top 4, correct?
that's correct. so hopefully the flip is moot.
sactowndog
All-Star
yep we have about a 20% chance of landing a top 4 pick and depending on where we land in the coin flip some chance of sliding post lottery of sliding a sport or two down from there.
I've been a fan of this team for 35+ years, pretty safe to say in a typical year there's the acceptance phase when we wind up with a pick in 7-10, followed by some brief hope from draft day through summer league/pre-season, and the realization that we suck again hits some point about 10 games into the season.
HndsmCelt
Hall of Famer
I'll take it
Lets hope we bump up in the top 4!
sactowndog
All-Star
well being in front of New Orleans help as they may have a similar need for wings. It will be interesting where Orlando goes.
I am glad we didn't slip to 10. Still crossing my fingers the lotto gods smile upon us for playing to win. Although they already did that and we ignored them.
LPKingsFan
All-Star
Never forget! https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/b...eaker-victory-comes-back-cost-bulls-no-2-pick
(never mind how the picks played out...)
(never mind how the picks played out...)
SLAB
Hall of Famer
No one will ever forget 2018.
sactowndog
All-Star
Im pretty sure that data is incorrect. The odds are split evenly between the three teams
The info on this graphic is wrong, because it is not taking into account the fact that the ties mean that the Kings, Bulls, and Pelicans have evenly split the lotto odds for the 8/9/10 slots. The odds in the graphic below (from Wikipedia) are correct.
sactowndog
All-Star
perhaps interesting question would you rather be Minnesota or the Kings.......
Iced Espresso
Starter
When the Pelicans jump to top 4, I'll consider these words later.
You'd rather be the Kings. Our expected value (all of our possible values times the probability of each value) comes out at about the same as a #6 pick. Minnesota's expected value is about the same as an early second-round pick, because they have such a high probability of having no pick at all (72.4% chance of no pick).
Iced Espresso
Starter
Well they have new ownership, so there's that. Taylor was, well an interesting owner.
Stupid because they could have done more to prevent it but at least it was led by their rookie guard who looks like he's on his way to becoming a perennial 25ppg scorer in this league.
Usually the Kings are led by the Ike Diogu's of the world.
sactowndog
All-Star
In terms of this pick sure. I was talking more about overall. Minnesota has a decent young core in Towns, Russell, Edwards and McDaniels. When they actually played together this year they were pretty good.
sactowndog
All-Star
yeah that factored in my thinking also.
Again with the Wolves love? KAT and Russell are losers. We might be a loser franchise, but those are two proven loser players. They have never led their teams to anything, with repeated failures over their first 6 years. Nice stats? Yes. Winners? No. They are soft losers. The numbers bear it out. They are worse than the Kings.
2015-16
Kings- 33-49
KAT- 29-53
Russell (LA) 17-65
2016-17
Kings- 32-50
KAT- 31-51
Russell (LA) 26-56
2017-18
KAT- 47-35 (carried by third team NBA Jimmy Butler)
Russell (BKN) 28-54
Kings 27-55
2018-2019
Russell (BKN)- 42-40
Kings- 39-43
KAT- 36-46
2019-2020
Kings 31-41
Russell (GS/MIN) 21-43
KAT- 19-45
2020-21
Kings 31-41
KAT 23-49
Russell 23-49
Since 2015-16
Kings 193-279
KAT- 185- 279 (8 less games because they didn't qualify for bubble)
Russell 157-307
This is not to suggest the Kings have been good. We have been bad. Losers in fact. But KAT's teams have been worse, and Russell's teams MUCH worse. In fact, we have had a better record than KAT and Russell in 4 of their 6 years. Think of that- us better than any team in 4 of 6 years! KAT's only good season came with Butler as the alpha. Russell's only decent season was with a scrappy Brooklyn team that probably wasn't any better than the Kings team that year. So spare me the love about the Wolves, and the talk that they are build something. They will never win a thing with KAT and Russell.
I didn't realize the scope of the question. Still, I'm not sure that this Minnesota young core is any better than Fox, Haliburton, Bagley (yes, Bagley!), and a lotto pick this year (which Minnesota probably doesn't have). And the Kings have some other non-young-core pieces as well. Edwards has a loooong way to go to be equal to Buddy Hield.
Let's look at it this way:
Towns > Bagley
Russell << Fox
Edwards << Hield
McDaniels << Barnes
Rubio << Haliburton
Reid > Metu
Beasley << Kings Lotto pick
If Minnesota hits the lottery and manages a top-3 pick, then maybe you'd rather be Minny. Otherwise, seems like a tough argument to make.
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
I'd probably put Reid with a few more than that over Metu.
gunks
Hall of Famer
Interesting question!
KAT seems to be the very definition of a “empty stats” player, but Edwards looks like he’s going to be a future super star, so maybe KAT will shine in a Robin role.
IF Minny keeps their pick, they could have a pretty solid core. Or maybe they’ll flip KAT for some good pieces. I’m sure he still has good value in the league.
Meanwhile we could stay a perpetual 10th in the West treadmill team... I really like the Fox/Hali backcourt, but we have neither the coach nor the supporting cast to really push this team into playoff contention. Bagley is doo doo. Barnes is a solid 4th option type. Buddy should be a 6th man...
And don’t get me started on Vivek. Dude is a disaster.
I’m going with Kings. But I think my fandom is 90 percent Stockholm syndrome at this point.
KAT seems to be the very definition of a “empty stats” player, but Edwards looks like he’s going to be a future super star, so maybe KAT will shine in a Robin role.
IF Minny keeps their pick, they could have a pretty solid core. Or maybe they’ll flip KAT for some good pieces. I’m sure he still has good value in the league.
Meanwhile we could stay a perpetual 10th in the West treadmill team... I really like the Fox/Hali backcourt, but we have neither the coach nor the supporting cast to really push this team into playoff contention. Bagley is doo doo. Barnes is a solid 4th option type. Buddy should be a 6th man...
And don’t get me started on Vivek. Dude is a disaster.
I’m going with Kings. But I think my fandom is 90 percent Stockholm syndrome at this point.
