Bagley’s worth now

[SacTownKid]

You’re seriously asking KINGS fans if anything is different after ONE game? For real?

Would you ask Hawks or Mavs fans if they’d changed their mind on Trae Young or #77 being good players after one really poor game?

One game is meaningless. Any player can play a great game here or there.

On the whole, Marvin Bagley is a 14/7 guy that in 3 seasons cannot stay healthy. He’s barely played in 1/2 of all KINGS games since being drafted.

Until he can show up to play most days and play at a higher level than he’s consistently shown to this point — not many fans are going to feel differently. Nor should they.

One thing about Marvin is his per minute production has been pretty consistent from day 1 averaging about 20 and 10 in all 3 seasons with a very similar usage. Also, the interest in him from here on out should be tied to that usage. As already discussed what does he look like if you swapped his role and Holmes? Holmes has a pick and roll frequency of around 35%. Bagley? 12.5%. And that said, Bagley is still consistently putting up 20 ppg per 36. Now it might not translate into reality but can you imagine that frequency tripled? Now for another slap in the face, Damian Jones and Metu both have a frequency around 30%. This franchise has put a Fox/Bagley duo on the backburner for the sakes of the likes if Holmes (who is no question SPECATCULAR in pnr BTW and I doubt Bagley would be as efficient but still), Jones, and Metu. Crazy.

 

[KingsCitizen]

Maybe Jabari said something like "Look at me Marvin, I'm a former number 2 pick. And I'm being cut now for a roster spot for someone that will be waived before the season ends. Get your crape together man. Being a number 2 pick is not an insurance to star treatment in the league. It's gone after your first season. All right bye!.

 

[ARockmon]

Thanks for the input. It seems like most in the forum still aren’t impressed with Bagley. I just saw the box score and 31 points and 12 rebounds looked good.
I guess I’m just still hoping he works out.
Maybe KingsFanSince85 (I am too) is right and he’s a 14/7 guy. We’ll see.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

One thing about Marvin is his per minute production has been pretty consistent from day 1 averaging about 20 and 10 in all 3 seasons with a very similar usage..

I couldn’t care less about “usage” with regard to MB3, or any player for that matter, when that player can’t stay healthy. And neither should you or anybody else.

The stat is useless. Because the larger the sample size, the more the production usually slips. When you‘re talking players with a checkered injury history, it makes it even less relevant.

The reality has been, MB3 is a 14/7 guy. You can cite all the reasons and excuses for that reality all you want. It doesn’t change the current reality.

While the manner in which the current coach has utilized him can certainly and justifiably be scrutinized and criticized, it doesn’t change the fact that the biggest obstacle has been his health.

If he can’t stat healthy averaging just 25-26 minutes per game while only playing in barely over half of his teams games, his “usage” per 36 are meaningless.

Facts are facts. The amount of time he has been available and played for the KINGS thus far hasn’t moved the needle.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

Once a person decides they don't like something, it's hard to change their minds. They'll look for things to validate their feelings.
.

The term you’re looking for is referred to as confirmation bias. And you might well be afflicted with it as much as anyone else. Who knows.

Regardless, just because others disagree doesn’t automatically mean confirmation bias is the reason why.

Sometimes it’s valid and sometimes it’s just used as an excuse to dismiss and discredit.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

Maybe KingsFanSince85 (I am too) is right and he’s a 14/7 guy. We’ll see.

KingsFanSince85 doesn’t want to be right. He’s just acknowledging the truth as it is right now.

I’d love to see MB3 suddenly morph into the all-star player Vlade thought he’d be all along. If he starts piling on games like the one he had last night — and does it into next season — I’ll be one ecstatic KINGS fan.

Unlike some, maybe, I’m not rooting for MB3 to fail. If he makes a sudden jump and can stay healthy, it drastically changes the KINGS fortunes going forward. Which is something I believe 99% of us want. I know that I do.

I’m just not going to be swayed into believing that just from one or even a couple meaningless games. I’ve seen it all before from numerous other players over the decades. They finish strong during the dog days and you get excited about their future then the next season it’s like it didn’t happen.

I need to see MB3 stay healthy, number one, and start producing like this a lot more often before I buy in.

 

[iowamcnabb]

I need to see MB3 stay healthy, number one, and start producing like this a lot more often before I buy in.

Team chemistry has to be considered as well. Fox and Haliburton have chemistry. Haliburton and Holmes have a fantastic connection. I’m not sure I have seen that with Marv and the other guys. Is it simply an issue of not enough playing time together or is it something more?

 

[ESP47]

One thing about Marvin is his per minute production has been pretty consistent from day 1 averaging about 20 and 10 in all 3 seasons with a very similar usage. Also, the interest in him from here on out should be tied to that usage. As already discussed what does he look like if you swapped his role and Holmes? Holmes has a pick and roll frequency of around 35%. Bagley? 12.5%. And that said, Bagley is still consistently putting up 20 ppg per 36. Now it might not translate into reality but can you imagine that frequency tripled? Now for another slap in the face, Damian Jones and Metu both have a frequency around 30%. This franchise has put a Fox/Bagley duo on the backburner for the sakes of the likes if Holmes (who is no question SPECATCULAR in pnr BTW and I doubt Bagley would be as efficient but still), Jones, and Metu. Crazy.

Could be one of two things.

If they play Holmes and Bagley and they run Bagley in the pick and roll, it's easier to defend because they can send the guy covering Holmes over to help since Holmes has no outside shot. If you run it with Bagley, someone has to stay home on Bagley because you have to respect his shot.

Metu and Jones have mostly played center so they've been in a similar situation as Holmes.

The other thing could potentially be Bagley's screening. He's awful at it. He turns his body sideways, which minimizes his screening ability and he takes off toward the rim way too soon. The perimeter defender never gets picked so Bagley's defender never has to leave home on Bagley. He's never fixed this issue and I really don't know why because it doesn't take a high IQ player to do it. It's as if Bagley is either too eager to get himself into scoring position, is afraid of contact or is afraid of drawing an illegal screen.

In the end I suspect it's the former because he's not a good enough defender to play big minutes at the 5 so they're going to let the center play pick and roll to balance out the offense.

 

[serbiangoat]

Hopefully he monsters OKC in particular in the remaining games because they need a PF and they have a ton of assets.

 

[The Effort Police]

One thing about Marvin is his per minute production has been pretty consistent from day 1 averaging about 20 and 10 in all 3 seasons with a very similar usage. Also, the interest in him from here on out should be tied to that usage. As already discussed what does he look like if you swapped his role and Holmes? Holmes has a pick and roll frequency of around 35%. Bagley? 12.5%. And that said, Bagley is still consistently putting up 20 ppg per 36. Now it might not translate into reality but can you imagine that frequency tripled? Now for another slap in the face, Damian Jones and Metu both have a frequency around 30%. This franchise has put a Fox/Bagley duo on the backburner for the sakes of the likes if Holmes (who is no question SPECATCULAR in pnr BTW and I doubt Bagley would be as efficient but still), Jones, and Metu. Crazy.

20/10 Per 36 is a meme.

No, I can't imagine it tripling. It's because he sucks at setting screens and is even worse at positional awareness. He doesn't get utilized in the PnR because he's not a PnR player. Under Joerger that frequency that you mentioned: 10%. Well under WCS 27% that year and even Giles 20%. Under two different coaches and four other bigs who have managed to perform a modest amount of PnR plays. Why? Because they know how to do it better.

All those other bigs save Giles who produces at about the same clip also produce more efficiently in that play despite the greater usage.

Fox and Bagley? Oil and water.

 

[Woot!]

Team chemistry has to be considered as well. Fox and Haliburton have chemistry. Haliburton and Holmes have a fantastic connection. I’m not sure I have seen that with Marv and the other guys. Is it simply an issue of not enough playing time together or is it something more?

THIS ALL DAY. There's more talent on this team than reflected in their play, especially defensively, and their record. Fox is the only one who might star on a very good team, but they have a bunch of guys who could be solid rotation contributors on such a team. But they're obviously not getting it done together.

"Lack of time together" is hard to believe given that Fox, Barnes, Buddy, and Holmes have been together for a while now. And Haliburton's game and BBIQ would fit in anywhere. Ill-fitting skill sets and dispositions? Some of that for sure. Poor coaching and schemes? Some of that too.

 

[midtowner]

Agree that Bagley does not set good screens. It’s frustrating - because if he could just set good screens on guards - it would unlock our offense. And setting screens is not a hard thing to learn.

Also agree that chemistry with the guards has been lacking. As a fan, I don’t have any explanation for why.

Seriously - if he just fixed these two things - I’d be stoked about him - even with his current trash defense.

 

[HndsmCelt]

Once a person decides they don't like something, it's hard to change their minds. They'll look for things to validate their feelings.

Marvin was 1st team All NBA Rookie, but people convinced themselves that he never measured up to any of the other draft picks that year and shouldn't have been in the top 5. People say he's not worth it because he's always hurt, but would take JJJ in a heartbeat. JJJ has only played 4 more games than Marvin in his career because of injury.

People claim Marvin is not a hard worker and that he went to AZ and did nothing. Walton today said Marvin was in great shape when he came back to the team and passed all of their conditioning tests. Walton also said that Marvin has the tools to be a good defender and is making the progressions they are looking for on defense.

The stats and facts aren't going sway people. It's going to have to be something emotional. A game winning shot or something of that nature.

Dope slapping Luka for crying to refs would go far in my book... just saying

 

[Livinthedream]

Dope slapping Luka for crying to refs would go far in my book... just saying

Yes. I'd like to see this please.

 

[miltonap]

I think Bagley has looked like a different player since he got back from his injury. He looks bigger physically and has a lot more energy on the court. It's nice to see. We have him under contract next year. That is starting to look like a good thing. Let's see if he keeps on the same path going forward. If he continues next season I would offer him a very incentive driven contract. I'd be wary he could be one of those contract year players.

I have to say I'm fed up with the Buddy Hield haters on this board. The guy plays lights out! He is a leader on the court. Plays every game and people talk crap about him. Sickening really!

I am really surprised at the energy of this team through the last 4 games. I mean what has happened? Why dont they play like this all year? Really fun to watch this kind of energy from the Kings!

I think the guys that are left are tough, high energy guys. Ironically, the guys that are sitting I think could learn from the guys that are playing right now, that effort and defense creates winning basketball.

Regarding buddy, I'm giving him props for that game against Indiana. I don't care that he can shoot, it's the other things in his game that have always been concerning. He makes terrible, momentum changing decisions. Of course, that could be coaching too for putting him in those spots but that's always been my gripe with him. Gives you buckets, takes them away with poor decisions.

Against Indiana though I saw a better Buddy, particularly playing the pick and roll. He played well, again, I don't care about his shooting, but I saw that he was making good plays in the pick and roll which was good to see

 

[Groovygreg]

The clock is ticking on MBIII’s time in Sacramento. If he’s still here next season, Bagley will need to show that he is an improved player by fixing the many holes in his game and by demonstrating reliability with his performance and his health. If Marvin can develop the necessary skills and be the type of consistent contributor that the team needs, maybe things will work out for him to stay.

 

[SacTownKid]

Could be one of two things.

If they play Holmes and Bagley and they run Bagley in the pick and roll, it's easier to defend because they can send the guy covering Holmes over to help since Holmes has no outside shot. If you run it with Bagley, someone has to stay home on Bagley because you have to respect his shot.

Metu and Jones have mostly played center so they've been in a similar situation as Holmes.

The other thing could potentially be Bagley's screening. He's awful at it. He turns his body sideways, which minimizes his screening ability and he takes off toward the rim way too soon. The perimeter defender never gets picked so Bagley's defender never has to leave home on Bagley. He's never fixed this issue and I really don't know why because it doesn't take a high IQ player to do it. It's as if Bagley is either too eager to get himself into scoring position, is afraid of contact or is afraid of drawing an illegal screen.

In the end I suspect it's the former because he's not a good enough defender to play big minutes at the 5 so they're going to let the center play pick and roll to balance out the offense.

True and that's why Bagley playing at least some C is a must and defense be darned. Worst is worst and if they commit to pressuring on switching he'll be fine, we've seen glimpses already. There are also wrinkles any coach can put in when the other team is glued to your pnr. That's a huge advantage if you work it right. Bagley even learning a legit slip in pnr could be a game changer. Still, more opportunities the more he learns.

 

[SacTownKid]

20/10 Per 36 is a meme.

No, I can't imagine it tripling. It's because he sucks at setting screens and is even worse at positional awareness. He doesn't get utilized in the PnR because he's not a PnR player. Under Joerger that frequency that you mentioned: 10%. Well under WCS 27% that year and even Giles 20%. Under two different coaches and four other bigs who have managed to perform a modest amount of PnR plays. Why? Because they know how to do it better.

All those other bigs save Giles who produces at about the same clip also produce more efficiently in that play despite the greater usage.

Fox and Bagley? Oil and water.

It's not though when he's playing just under. It can be if you are extrapolating players that play 8 minutes per game which he's not. He's 22 years old, he needs to learn if he is a legit pnr force now and there is no reason that under a competent coach he shouldn't be.

 

[joemama]

Bamba just had 15 boards








In a half.

 

[SLAB]

Remember when I said “Do it against a team that’s actively trying to win before I’m impressed,”?

... about that, Marv.

 

[sactowndog]

Remember when I said “Do it against a team that’s actively trying to win before I’m impressed,”?

... about that, Marv.

Yep doing against OKC is like a G league game. Marvin will go off the next two games for sure.

 

[SLAB]

Yep doing against OKC is like a G league game. Marvin will go off the next two games for sure.

Maybe he’ll trick someone into thinking his worth is above that of Saddiq Bey.

 

[ARockmon]

Geeze, Marvin only had 4 points in 18 minutes tonight against the Spurs. What happened? Just a bad night for MB III?

 

[Dongoodboy]

Masterpiece by Vlade Divac, just slightly behind his tip to Horry.

 

[sactowndog]

Geeze, Marvin only had 4 points in 18 minutes tonight against the Spurs. What happened? Just a bad night for MB III?

dude. It’s the difference between playing a G league game (OKC) and a real NBA game (Spurs).

 

[The Effort Police]

Y'know, this would be the part where I make some biting comment about Bagley, but nah.

It's all so meaningless at this point. Whether he puts up 31/12 in a W or puts up 4/2 and gets killed by Keldon Johnson; just the same meaningless finish to the season that means nothing.

Just don't buy stock in anyone at this stage lol.

 

[SLAB]

Y'know, this would be the part where I make some biting comment about Bagley, but nah.

It's all so meaningless at this point. Whether he puts up 31/12 in a W or puts up 4/2 and gets killed by Keldon Johnson; just the same meaningless finish to the season that means nothing.

Just don't buy stock in anyone at this stage lol.

Except Terence Davis

TO THE MOON!!!!!

 

[sactowndog]

Y'know, this would be the part where I make some biting comment about Bagley, but nah.

It's all so meaningless at this point. Whether he puts up 31/12 in a W or puts up 4/2 and gets killed by Keldon Johnson; just the same meaningless finish to the season that means nothing.

Just don't buy stock in anyone at this stage lol.

I think that was my point about making judgements about players in meaningless games.

 

[sactowndog]

Except Terence Davis

TO THE MOON!!!!!

If Monte keeps him....

 

[The Effort Police]

Except Terence Davis

TO THE MOON!!!!!

I mean sure you can have Davis next year as a rotation bench piece and see if he has more. Maybe he does, maybe he doesn't. Same thing with Metu.

But expecting them to be key pieces of the core about some success down the stretch of another meaningless season is too extreme.