Atlanta, Chicago, & Sacramento (With the recent Gay news...)

[twslam07]

I saw this trade on another board and thought it was a pretty fair deal for all parties. With the recent news about Gay, it makes it seem more and more likely that he will be moved. Below is the exact post. What do you all think?


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Atlanta Gets:
Rudy Gay
Taj Gibson
2018 Bulls 2nd Round Pick

Atlanta Gives:
Kyle Korver
Tiago Splitter
Mike Muscala
2017 Hawks 1st (top 20 protected for 3 years then it turns into two 2nd round picks)

Why for Atlanta?
Atlanta adds another efficient scorer who can work off of Schroder, Millsap, & Howard while helping replace some of the scoring that was lost when Teague & Horford left. They could even use him as a super sixth man with Bazemore & Sefolosha locking down the perimeter defensively to start the game.

With the signing of Howard & the fact that Tavares looks like he's ready to breakout (per36 at summer league: 65% FG% / 75% FT% / 15.1 PPG / 13.1 RPG / 1.1 SPG / 4.5 BPG), Splitter may be the odd man out. Gibson gives them a solid backup PF who can also play some smallball C here and there.

Lastly, they still maintain cap flexibility going into next year with the ability to go over the cap to sign Gay and/or Gibson if they choose.

PG - Schroder / Jack / Delaney
SG - Bazemore / Hardaway / Bembry
SF - Sefolosha / Gay / Prince
PF - Millsap / Gibson / Scott
C - Howard / Tavares / Humphries

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Chicago Gets:
Kosta Koufos
Mike Muscala

Chicago Gives:
Taj Gibson
2018 Bulls 2nd Round Pick

Why for Chicago?
Chicago moves Gibson to make space for their young PFs. One of which who's shooting is a much better fit in the starting unit if they decide to start Rondo, Wade, & Butler together. They also pick-up a cheap but solid backup C to pair with Lopez.

PG - Rondo / Grant / Canaan
SG - Butler / Wade / Snell
SF - McDermott / Valentine / Zipser
PF - Mirotic / Portis / Muscala
C - Lopez / Koufos / Felicio

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Sacramento Gets:
Kyle Korver
Tiago Splitter
2017 Hawks 1st (top 20 protected for 3 years then it turns into two 2nd round picks)

Sacramento Gives:
Rudy Gay
Kosta Koufos

Why for Sacramento?
With Cousins drawing double & triple teams on a consistent basis, it's important to surround him with good shooters. Although his shot seemed to decline a bit last year, team's will still stay home on Korverand be reluctant to help on defense. With Collison, Korver, & Casspi in the starting lineup, that gives Cousins three 40% 3pt shooters to find in case defenses collapse on him. You could even potentially start Tolliver (instead of Cauley-Stein) giving them a 41% 3pt shooter, two 40% 3pt shooters, & a 37% 3pt shooter around Cousins. Spacing is not going to get much better for him.

Splitter is insurance in case Cauley-Stein or Cousins gets injured while also coming off the books the very next year.

Lastly, they get a protected late 1st that can help them either in a rebuild or if Cousins decides to stay with the team.

PG - Collison / Lawson / Farmar
SG - Korver / Afflalo / McLemore / Richardson
SF - Casspi / Temple / Barnes
PF - Cauley-Stein / Tolliver / Labissiere
C - Cousins / Splitter / Papagiannis

 

[dude12]

Korver wasn't so good last year and is a defensive liability which means he doesn't quite fit Joerger's type of guy. Koufos and Splitter are a push. I'd rather just hold Rudy and wait til the trade deadline.....the chance of his trade value going up near the deadline is great when teams realize they need that extra piece.

 

[twslam07]

Korver wasn't so good last year and is a defensive liability which means he doesn't quite fit Joerger's type of guy. Koufos and Splitter are a push. I'd rather just hold Rudy and wait til the trade deadline.....the chance of his trade value going up near the deadline is great when teams realize they need that extra piece.

Korver's shot decline last year is concerning, but he actually improved as the year went on. If a player is dropping off, you would think that trend would continue as the season goes on. Instead, he shot 44% from 3 in the last 3 months and 45% from 3 in the last 2 months.

Also, what makes you think Korver is a defensive liability? I'm not saying he's a lockdown defender, but he's certainly a good team defender. Statistically, he's a much better defender than Afflalo. So not only are you upgrading the spacing & shooting, but you're upgrading the defense with Korver.

2015-16 DRAPM: +2.85 (#2 among SGs; #6 in the league)
2014-15 DRAPM: Don't have access
2013-14 DRAPM: Don't have access

2015-16 DRPM: +1.82 (#6 among SGs; #60 in the league)
2014-15 DRPM: +1.34 (#10 among SGs; #88 in the league)
2013-14 DRPM: +0.73 (#10 among SGs; #139 in the league)

2015-16 Def On/Off: -1.5 (his team gave up 1.5 less pts per 100 poss when on the floor)
2014-15 Def On/Off: -2.3 (his team gave up 2.3 less pts per 100 poss when on the floor)
2013-14 Def On/Off: -4.3 (his team gave up 4.3 less pts per 100 poss when on the floor)

Compare that to a guy like Afflalo who has been an atrocious defender....

2015-16 DRAPM: -1.2 (#395 in the league)
2014-15 DRAPM: Don't have access
2013-14 DRAPM: Don't have access

2015-16 DRPM: -2.58 (#81 among SGs)
2014-15 DRPM: -1.86 (#57 among SGs)
2013-14 DRPM: -2.95 (#53 among SGs)

2015-16 Def On/Off: +3.0 (his team gave up 3.0 more pts per 100 poss when on the floor)
2014-15 Def On/Off: +1.8 (his team gave up 1.8 more pts per 100 poss when on the floor)
2013-14 Def On/Off: +5.8 (his team gave up 5.8 more pts per 100 poss when on the floor)

...and Korver seems like a guy who can fit in a team defensive concept (like what Joerger is planning on doing) and be effective.

As for Splitter vs. Koufos, I'm not sure I agree with that assessment. The problem with Koufos is that we are paying a backup C $8 mil a year when we already have the best C in the league. That means we're either paying a guy $8 mil a year to pickup 12 mpg behind Cousins or we're taking our best player out of position and playing him next to Koufos for stretches (which is not a good pairing). Splitter for Koufos give us another big in case of foul trouble or injuries, but he expires at the end of the year. So instead of having $8 mil locked into a backup C we don't need, we have an extra $8 mil to use in FA to upgrade other positions that need it (while having Cauley-Stein & Papagiannis, on their very cheap rookie deals, pickup the backup C minutes).

And on top of all that you get a late 1st rounder. I wouldn't mind having another Malachi or Labissiere type player on this team at all.


Collison, Kover, & Casspi all seem to put in the effort on the defensive side of the ball. I think Joerger would be able to work with that perimeter and rely on Cauley-Stein & Cousins to be the plus defenders. Although Korver & Casspi lack elite athleticism, can their defensive effort, team defense, and trust in their system/teammates be enough to hold it down? If it is, I'd be very intrigued to see Cousins on offense with THREE 40% 3pt shooters around him.

 

[DesertFox]

Yes, please. Korver would be great, a team player on offense and defense.

 

[ElRey]

Not sure how I feel about this trade. Lets break it down.

Gay turns into Korver
Koufos turns into Splitter.

First round pick is TOP 20 protected and then turns into 2 2nd rounders ( crapty pick that can turn much worse in 3 years) .

Would u trade Gay straight up for Korver? Not sure.
Would u trade Koufos straight up for Splitter? I wouldn't.

So the only thing we really gained in this trade was a crapty top 20 protected 1st round pick, and we have to lose some talent to do it.

 

[KingMilz]

Indiana/Denver/Kings

Kings get: Chandler/Monta Ellis
Pacers get: Rudy/Ben
Nuggets get: CJ Miles (need another good 3 point shooter)

Collison/Lawson
Ellis/Afflalo
Chandler/Casspi/Barnes
WCS/Casspi/Barnes
Cousins/WCS

Ellis is on a bargain deal for 2 more years which expires probably when he does as a starting level player, Chandler is as well but he's a big injury risk. Having a bench of Lawson/AA/Casspi/Barnes imo is pretty decent core bench unit.

 

[twslam07]

Not sure how I feel about this trade. Lets break it down.

Gay turns into Korver
Koufos turns into Splitter.

First round pick is TOP 20 protected and then turns into 2 2nd rounders ( poopooty pick that can turn much worse in 3 years) .

Would u trade Gay straight up for Korver? Not sure.
Would u trade Koufos straight up for Splitter? I wouldn't.

So the only thing we really gained in this trade was a poopooty top 20 protected 1st round pick, and we have to lose some talent to do it.

It can be so extreme with some people... How is a 21-30 pick s****y? We just picked up two players in that range that look very promising.

Some notable players that have been drafted 21 or higher in the last 6 draftts:
2016 Draft: DeAndre Bembry, Malachi Richardson, Timothe Luwawu, Brice Johnson, Skal Labissiere, & Dejounte Murray
2015 Draft: Justin Anderson, Booby Portis, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Tyus Jones, & Josh Richardson
2014 Draft: Mitch McGary, Rodney Hood, Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kyle Anderson, Nikola Jokic, & Jordan Clarkson
2013 Draft: Gorgui Dieng, Mason Plumlee, Solomon Hill, Andre Roberson, Rudy Gobert, Allen Crabbe, & Alex Abrines
2012 Draft: Jared Sullinger, Festus Ezeli, Jae Crowder, Solomon Hill, & Khris Middleton
2011 Draft: Kenneth Faried, Nikola Mirotic, Reggie Jackson, Cory Joseph, Jimmy Butler, Chandler Parsons, & Isaiah Thomas

You can pick up very useful players on dirt cheap contracts. A 21-30 pick is more than likely not going to turn into an all star, but you can turn that pick into a very solid contributor. Perhaps we just have different definitions of "s****y." Your definition of a "s****y" pick is a pick that has a low chance of turning into a star whereas my definition of a "s****y" pick is a pick that has a low chance of turning into a useful player. If you factor in the sharp increase in the cap, it's put even more of a premium on finding a useful player on a rookie contract.

As for Koufos vs. Spliiter, I disagree. The cap space next year is much, much more useful so we can redistribute that cap space to other positions.


The idea is to trade for a piece who theoretically may fit better with our current core while freeing ourselves of an $8 mil/year C when we already have two backup Cs on rookie deals who can fill the void (along with Splitter for a year while Papagiannis gets more acclimated) and the best C in the game that should be getting 34-36 mpg at C. Then on top of that, you get another pick to continue adding youth (I. Cousins, Bogdanovic, Richardson, Labissiere, Cauley-Stein, Papagiannis, 2017 ATL 1st, and possibly our own 2017 1st).

 

[twslam07]

Indiana/Denver/Kings

Kings get: Chandler/Monta Ellis
Pacers get: Rudy/Ben
Nuggets get: CJ Miles (need another good 3 point shooter)

Collison/Lawson
Ellis/Afflalo
Chandler/Casspi/Barnes
WCS/Casspi/Barnes
Cousins/WCS

Ellis is on a bargain deal for 2 more years which expires probably when he does as a starting level player, Chandler is as well but he's a big injury risk. Having a bench of Lawson/AA/Casspi/Barnes imo is pretty decent core bench unit.

I'd do it just because we're stealing value. I don't like the fit with the players that are coming in, but with a Kings team that is low on talent, I think you have to make that trade.

I'm not so sure Denver does it as they already have a plethora of wings and if anything they're looking for a 2 for 1, 3 for 2, 3 for 1, etc. to help consolidate some of their assets.

 

[ElRey]

It can be so extreme with some people... How is a 21-30 pick s****y? We just picked up two players in that range that look very promising.
Some notable players that have been drafted 21 or higher in the last 6 draftts:
2016 Draft: DeAndre Bembry, Malachi Richardson, Timothe Luwawu, Brice Johnson, Skal Labissiere, & Dejounte Murray
2015 Draft: Justin Anderson, Booby Portis, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Tyus Jones, & Josh Richardson
2014 Draft: Mitch McGary, Rodney Hood, Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kyle Anderson, Nikola Jokic, & Jordan Clarkson
2013 Draft: Gorgui Dieng, Mason Plumlee, Solomon Hill, Andre Roberson, Rudy Gobert, Allen Crabbe, & Alex Abrines
2012 Draft: Jared Sullinger, Festus Ezeli, Jae Crowder, Solomon Hill, & Khris Middleton
2011 Draft: Kenneth Faried, Nikola Mirotic, Reggie Jackson, Cory Joseph, Jimmy Butler, Chandler Parsons, & Isaiah Thomas

.

I see a bunch of BENCH Players on that list... and not even many 6th man of the year type candidates. There's always going to be some good players in the late first round, but the chances are slim. Historically, most late 1st rounders and 2nd round picks don't end up good. The odds are low for late first round picks. There always going to be some exceptions, but you have to be lucky and good at drafting.

If Splitter is a free agent next year and we let him walk like you suggested, then we essentially trade Gay and Koufos for Korver and a late 1st round pick that could potentially become 2nd round picks. Looking at Atlanta draft history, they've only picked below #20 1 time out of the last 4 years (#21 this 2016 draft) , so there is good chance that late 1st round pick becomes 2nd round picks.

 

[twslam07]

I see a bunch of BENCH Players on that list... and not even many 6th man of the year type candidates. There's always going to be some good players in the late first round, but the chances are slim. Historically, most late 1st rounders and 2nd round picks don't end up good. The odds are low for late first round picks. There always going to be some exceptions, but you have to be lucky and good at drafting.

If Splitter is a free agent next year and we let him walk like you suggested, then we essentially trade Gay and Koufos for Korver and a late 1st round pick that could potentially become 2nd round picks. Looking at Atlanta draft history, they've only picked below #20 1 time out of the last 4 years (#21 this 2016 draft) , so there is good chance that late 1st round pick becomes 2nd round picks.

And I see a bunch of starters as well (Faried, Mirotic, Jackson, Butler, Parsons, Thomas, Crowder, S. Hill, Middleton, Dieng, Roberson, Gobert, R. Hood, Capela, Jokic, Clarkson, J. Richardson). Talk about being selective with what you're looking at... Just because you say "I see a bunch of BENCH Players" doesn't make it so, and it definitely comes off as you trying to spin the facts to make your argument look stronger.

But let's just say they are all "bench players." So what? If you can get a productive bench player for $1-$1.5 mil that is a very valuable piece. Look at M. Barnes, Temple, Koufos, Tolliver, or even Afflalo (who has no business starting). These guys are making $6-$12 mil a year. You essentially just saved $4.5-$10.5 mil to go towards spending on a starter or even a star.

Well if you want to look at it that way, both Gay & Korver expire as well, so you're essentially trading Koufos for a top 20 protected pick and $8 mil more in cap space. The cap space is much more important than Koufos himself. Do you not agree with that?

As for where Atlanta finishes, that's anybody's guess, but I happen to think a team with a starting lineup of Schroder/Bazemore/Sefolosha/Millsap/Howard with Jack/Gay/Gibson off the bench will be very competitive (especially in the east).

And sorry, but say what? Atlanta has only finished in the top 10 once in the past 4 years? Are we choosing to forget about 2014-15 when they had the 2nd best record in the league and had the #1 seed going into the playoffs?

 

[ElRey]

And I see a bunch of starters as well (Faried, Mirotic, Jackson, Butler, Parsons, Thomas, Crowder, S. Hill, Middleton, Dieng, Roberson, Gobert, R. Hood, Capela, Jokic, Clarkson, J. Richardson). Talk about being selective with what you're looking at... Just because you say "I see a bunch of BENCH Players" doesn't make it so, and it definitely comes off as you trying to spin the facts to make your argument look stronger.

But let's just say they are all "bench players." So what? If you can get a productive bench player for $1-$1.5 mil that is a very valuable piece. Look at M. Barnes, Temple, Koufos, Tolliver, or even Afflalo (who has no business starting). These guys are making $6-$12 mil a year. You essentially just saved $4.5-$10.5 mil to go towards spending on a starter or even a star.

Well if you want to look at it that way, both Gay & Korver expire as well, so you're essentially trading Koufos for a top 20 protected pick and $8 mil more in cap space. The cap space is much more important than Koufos himself. Do you not agree with that?

As for where Atlanta finishes, that's anybody's guess, but I happen to think a team with a starting lineup of Schroder/Bazemore/Sefolosha/Millsap/Howard with Jack/Gay/Gibson off the bench will be very competitive (especially in the east).

And sorry, but say what? Atlanta has only finished in the top 10 once in the past 4 years? Are we choosing to forget about 2014-15 when they had the 2nd best record in the league and had the #1 seed going into the playoffs?

What are the chances of a late first round pick turning into a starter? 90% ? 50% ? 30% ? 20%? 10%? 5%?

A lot of it also depends on the draft year. Some drafts are better than others, so is next year's draft any good?

 

[ElRey]

"
And sorry, but say what? Atlanta has only finished in the top 10 once in the past 4 years? Are we choosing to forget about 2014-15 when they had the 2nd best record in the league and had the #1 seed going into the playoffs? "




2016 #21
2015 #15 (this was Brooklyn's pick , Atlanta actual pick was 29, so you're right here)
2014 #15
2013 #17

 

[twslam07]

What are the chances of a late first round pick turning into a starter? 90% ? 50% ? 30% ? 20%? 10%? 5%?

A lot of it also depends on the draft year. Some drafts are better than others, so is next year's draft any good?

Sorry, I'm not going to sit down and do the math for every single draft, but if we look at just 2011 to 2014 (giving players at least 1 year to develop and become a starter), there are 16 players. 10 which were taken in 21-30 and 6 who were taken in the 2nd round. So you're looking at somewhere between 25-40%.

However, this whole how many becomes starters argument is incomplete. Like I already pointed out, cheap bench players are valuable as well.

As far as this upcoming draft goes, it's touted to have a lot of talent.

 

[ElRey]

Sorry, I'm not going to sit down and do the math for every single draft, but if we look at just 2011 to 2014 (giving players at least 1 year to develop and become a starter), there are 16 players. 10 which were taken in 21-30 and 6 who were taken in the 2nd round. So you're looking at somewhere between 25-40%.

However, this whole how many becomes starters argument is incomplete. Like I already pointed out, cheap bench players are valuable as well.

As far as this upcoming draft goes, it's touted to have a lot of talent.

If it's a good deep draft, then it may be worth it. If it's a crappy draft, then I'm not very keen on the trade...but anyway, enough debating about a trade that's not even real. Haha. I'll let others take it from here.

 

[KingsFanGER]

Atlanta relied heavily on spacing under Budenholzer. The team changed quite a bit during this offseason. Schröder is inconsistent with his jumpshot. Howard is only effective close to the rim. They absolutely need spacing from the other 3 positions in the starting unit. Doubt their prefered solution is someone like Gay. More like another season of hoping for a bounceback from Korver, while they have 4 guys able to help him on D.

 

[KingMilz]

To me any trade with the Bull has to mean us getting Gibson and a lesser player in return for Rudy and maybe Ben or Kosta. He's a ridicilous fit next to Cousins (other than Ibaka no other non-all star PF is better) even if it's for one year and we would give a hard working mentor to WCS who can learn from Gibson who came into the L similar to WCS (except smaller and less athletic) and has for 5-6 years been a very good and crazy underrated two way PF. At the worst Gibson is a expiring deal who can still play.