And with the #23 pick in the 2009 Draft, the Kings select....

I see that Collison's not considered much here as the 23rd pick--I wouldn't consider him much either. He's probably a reach at #23, but would be a solid pick at #31--his talent level is probably better suited there. I'm lukewarm on him--I actually liked him better in his sophomore year when he was still considered an up-and-comer, because he actually did two things really well then: pass and steal the ball really well. I generally like those marks the most out of point guards, because they show leadership and a typical point guard athletic marker, but since then those numbers have regressed (his assists/poss dropped from 0.48 to 0.38, assists per 40 dropped from 7.1 to 6.1, and his steals per 40 dropped from 2.8 to 2.1). In fact, it probably would've been wiser for Collison to enter the draft in his sophomore year to capitalize on his rising play--I really get the feeling that he stayed in college too long, because his numbers are relatively stayed the same.

Collison has a very low usage rate for a point guard, which suits him well as he could easily make the transition to role player in the NBA, but he's highly efficient with his possessions. He likes to shoot the ball with those few possessions, and is a pretty good bargain for success with his 62% TS--he's a high percentage shooter from everywhere (in particular he's one of the best point guards in hitting two pointers) and that's a fact substantiated by his body of work in college--he's had a true shooting percentage of 60%+ in his last three years of college. He prefers to slash more than shoot three pointers though--he's surprisingly solid at getting to the line, and doesn't have a great sample space of three pointers. However, there are major concerns--he's too slight of frame and small to finish among the trees in the NBA, and he has a slow, strange release on his jumper, so despite all his success shooting the ball at college, that's why scouts question his ability to score in the NBA. I think he's smart and heady enough to overcome that, as shown in his college shooting, and eventually prove to be serviceable offensively though.

Collison still cuts it as a solid playmaker--his assists/FG~possession and assist/turnover are solid, but compared to his past success there, just not as prominent. His quickness athletic marker is most reflected in steals--he's a good stealer, again, but he's lost some here from his past success. So while Collison a low-usage high-efficiency player who proved that he can shoot the ball and pass/steal the ball pretty well, when you take into account the potential lack of success his scoring might have in the NBA, as well as his decreased assists/steals, the intrigue is drastically lessened. He's still a solid roleplayer, I would imagine in a richer man's Jacque Vaughn mold, or maybe a poor man's Chris Duhon--I think he's more of a college player than NBA player, but his talent level is better served at the end of the first round with all the questions that he raises. So not a good pick at #23 with better options available, but he could be a solid pick at #31 depending on if we need a point guard--he plays defense and passes the ball well enough, so he could be a bargain there.

Good write up.

Funny about the assists too. I remember when the Kings drafted Peja, the commentators mentioned he had so few assists that his idea of an assist was passing the ball from his left hand to his right. Always got a kick out of that.
 
Sorry for bumping this thread back up, but...

Terrence Williams needs to get more mention with this pick. He's struggled with his shooting/shot selection throughout all four years of college, but if you overlook that and look at everything else, he's really, really skilled and athletic. His athletic markers are outstanding--he's an excellent rebounder (particularly defensive rebounding) at the wing positions, and near the top in both steals and blocks. Skillwise, he's an excellent passer, and even a pretty decent one for point guard standards--his passing ability is comparable to Darren Collison's. The problem is his shot all the way--he's annually one of the worst 2-point shooters among wings, and while he's improved his three point shooting into very decent territory this year, he's among the worst free throw shooters among both SGs/SFs, so that has to give talent evaluators pause. He's just a model of inefficiency in scoring, between his small pts/possession and TS%, and he's surprisingly not that good at getting to the line either (maybe for fear of not making free throws)--he's highly unselfish though, so that helps a bit. But overall, shooting's the easiest thing to develop in the league, and Williams has the athleticism, athletic markers and all-around game (rebounding, passing, stealing) to cover up for it. I think he can be a solid player provided he's surrounded with scorers, so it's not a bad pick at #23.
 
Terrence Williams would be a great pick....I would love and I mean love to nab him with the 23rd....its just too bad he won't fall, I heard he has been having great workouts, and people have picked as high as 12. I guess were just going to get stuck with Casspi(ugh!!!!)
 
Reason I bring up Williams is because his stock is falling--I think it's because of some maturity issues and problems with his shot selection. But at the end of the day, he's very very comparable with Andre Iguodala (especially in athletic markers)--granted, Iguodala had fairly better shot selection and free throw rate, but Williams shot three pointers better, stole the ball and fouled less. And Williams is young for his draft class--Iguodala entered the draft at 20 years old, and Williams will be drafted at age 21. While I do think Williams will have a harder road scoring because of his poor shot selection and bad free throw shooting, his all-around skills are matched by few in college basketball and perhaps even in the NBA--so he wouldn't be a bad pick.
 
If we could turn the #4 pick into 2 picks between 8-15 I'd be a happy panda.

That could see us getting Flynn and Williams as opposed to Rubio and who-the-f-cares.
 
Reason I bring up Williams is because his stock is falling--I think it's because of some maturity issues and problems with his shot selection. But at the end of the day, he's very very comparable with Andre Iguodala (especially in athletic markers)--granted, Iguodala had fairly better shot selection and free throw rate, but Williams shot three pointers better, stole the ball and fouled less. And Williams is young for his draft class--Iguodala entered the draft at 20 years old, and Williams will be drafted at age 21. While I do think Williams will have a harder road scoring because of his poor shot selection and bad free throw shooting, his all-around skills are matched by few in college basketball and perhaps even in the NBA--so he wouldn't be a bad pick.


Williams has been one of my favourite players for a long time and he's always been my ideal pick at 23. But I think he'll be gone. He has too much talent to slip that far. That's why I'd like to get another pick in the 10-16 range, to ensure that he's there.
 
Reason I bring up Williams is because his stock is falling--I think it's because of some maturity issues and problems with his shot selection. But at the end of the day, he's very very comparable with Andre Iguodala (especially in athletic markers)--granted, Iguodala had fairly better shot selection and free throw rate, but Williams shot three pointers better, stole the ball and fouled less. And Williams is young for his draft class--Iguodala entered the draft at 20 years old, and Williams will be drafted at age 21. While I do think Williams will have a harder road scoring because of his poor shot selection and bad free throw shooting, his all-around skills are matched by few in college basketball and perhaps even in the NBA--so he wouldn't be a bad pick.

Williams is a good player. He's a real stat stuffer. If I had to knitpick I don't think he finishes as well for a guy with his athleticism as he should. And, of course, he still needs to get better on his outside shot. But because he's so athletic, I think his game will translate nicely in the NBA. He's a nice pick at #23.
 
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