And with the #23 pick in the 2009 Draft, the Kings select....
- Thread starter ockingsfan
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nbrans
All-Star
I've never known quite how to feel about James Johnson. His game is sort of caught between the 3 and 4. On the one hand he's pretty skilled with the ball and can shoot from outside, but I don't think he's quick enough to take NBA 3s off the dribble, and I think he'd struggle on D. He can take it inside, but he's not really big enough to be a 4.
I almost like him more as a Brandon Bass/Carl Landry undersized 4 than as a SF assuming he can get stronger, but I don't know if he's tough enough for that. He could give PFs some matchup problems, but then, he's a matchup problem on the other end.
Just can't quite picture his role in the NBA.
Arby's Roast Beef
Starter
I don't like either, because both have more value in the 2nd round as opposed to the first round where many of the draftniks seem to be placing them. Ellington probably is more of a safe bet--you do know what you're going to get (scoring), but that's about it. Budinger may eventually prove to be trash, but he's proven in college that he can do a little bit of everything (even though I think he's a jack of all trades master of none type) and does have some athleticism, so there's more potential for growth with him, even if his passivity and lack of basketball interest may cut through that. It's all crapshoot anyway--both players may find their niches, both may not, and in the second round it doesn't matter because they're not guaranteed contracts. I don't mind either way because we don't really need another SF or a SG, but from an NBA-translatable skills and potential standpoint I'd probably draft Budinger over Ellington. And yes, I like Danny Green far more than Ellington and Budinger, and would probably draft him over the both of them.
dj3ptspecialist44
G-League
Well we definitely agree there I think the Kings are going to have to pick up a another forward or big with the 23 pick provided we get Rubio or another PT guard. Then at 31 if they go big grab Danny Green if he's still there which he should be. He's an intangible type player and he packs defensive ability and scoring ability as well. He's also a great weak side shot blocker. Careful picks will improve the Kings a lot this draft doesn't have the so called stars, but players that will make us a lot better.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
I stated about 3 months ago that I liked the upside of Daye. He's raw but loaded with potential. He's someone that is a gamble, but could actually turn into a star. I didn't think he was used to his best potential this year at Gonzaga.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
I agree with you. Johnson's best position is at the 4 spot. The guy plays with a lot of heart, and I think he'll be a productive player for whoever drafts him. I would be shocked if he fell to 23. I have him going somewhere between 10 and 16. There aren't that many good bigs in the draft this year, so I think someone will take a flyer on him, maybe even in the lottery.
My personal choice for 23, if there, would be Sam Young. His game reminds me a little bit of Lionel Simmons. He's a better outside shooter than Simmons was coming out of college, and maybe a little more athletic. What I love the most about him is his defense, something the Kings could use a little of. He's a tough player that can score inside or outside, and is a pretty good rebounder for a SF.
Big agreement on Heytvelt. In the end when #31 rolls along I'll probably prefer somebody else -- Casspi; if we don't have a point yet Mills, Llull, or De Colo; maybe Dasic -- but I definitely have him over the other second round bigs like Gibson, Pendergraph, and Aminu and I wouldn't be upset if we were to nab him and give him some pounder minutes down low.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
I think I would go with Casspi over Heytvelt, strictly on upside. Two entirely types of players of course. I could see Heytvelt in a Pollard type of role with a little more offense. Casspi is someone that appears to have a star buried somewhere inside of him. Heytvelt is probably someone that can give you a few minutes right away, where Casspi is someone that is a couple of years away from really contributing.
Z
ZagsFan
Guest
I go to Gonzaga and I have had the privilege to see almost every single game that Austin has played in. With that said I must say how much of a disappointment he has been. He gets his share of touches each game, regardless of the amount of seniors on the team. He stepped up and played fairly well in WCC play, however when playing non conference games he seemed to disappear. I believe his biggest downside is that he is immature. He often gets flustered on the court, and will play out of control. From what I've seen from him and from my friends, who are friends with him, I've gotten the impression that he is a self centered and not that big of a team player (this can be taken with a grain of salt). I think he will be much more suited to go back to school for another year, bulk up, and show what he can really do when he is the main star on the team.
Arby's Roast Beef
Starter
I like Sam Young's body of work--he's a guy who really was self-made player, a guy who improved throughout his years in college and along the way developed aspects of the game as he made the shift from PF to SF. He made is biggest jump from his sophomore to junior year, and frankly had the opportunity to enter during his junior year--he took far greater control of the offense, sharply increased his three point shooting and because of that, scored way more efficiently. This year he's largely the same as last year (he just shot more threes and thus went to the line less), but he kept his stats up and his reputation as a smart, heady, meat-and-potatoes guy who gives it his all on defense and will endear himself to many teams.
Young doesn't wow in any particular category--he's a decent but not great rebounder for a SF (but a pretty good offensive rebounder), and in particular he's a very poor passer--but he's a high efficiency point-maker who can score whether by hitting threes, making mid-range J's or getting to the line at an okay rate. He's also a pretty good shotblocker for a SF, which shows some of his defensive prowess. It's probably not that big a deal, but his passing at the NBA level might be questionable--he ranks among the bottom in many assist markers in college, and has done that throughout college--and while to his credit he doesn't turn the ball over much, to be an SF he probably needs to display more of these skills. Anyhow, he's likely to reach his ceiling as a role player because he knows his limitations and sticks to his strengths, and while I don't think he was as good as James Posey in college (Posey rebounded, stole the ball and went to the free throw line far better than Young did--showing far better athletic markers), he was better than Matt Barnes in his last year in college (he had far greater responsibility than Barnes in his last year of college)--so that bodes well for him.
Overall, he's a smart NBA-ready role player who probably serves best as a cog for playoff teams (as a guy who can score a little bit of everywhere and can play defense), but we're a team where his tough-as-nails attitude and defense would also be highly needed. Unfortunately, he somewhat reminds me of Andres Nocioni--from the spot up three point shooting to the ballhandling limitations to the desire to hawk on D, if we draft him we just would be getting a near duplicate. And SF isn't a real position of need either. So while I like his game overall, it doesn't gel exactly with the team, so pass.
Young doesn't wow in any particular category--he's a decent but not great rebounder for a SF (but a pretty good offensive rebounder), and in particular he's a very poor passer--but he's a high efficiency point-maker who can score whether by hitting threes, making mid-range J's or getting to the line at an okay rate. He's also a pretty good shotblocker for a SF, which shows some of his defensive prowess. It's probably not that big a deal, but his passing at the NBA level might be questionable--he ranks among the bottom in many assist markers in college, and has done that throughout college--and while to his credit he doesn't turn the ball over much, to be an SF he probably needs to display more of these skills. Anyhow, he's likely to reach his ceiling as a role player because he knows his limitations and sticks to his strengths, and while I don't think he was as good as James Posey in college (Posey rebounded, stole the ball and went to the free throw line far better than Young did--showing far better athletic markers), he was better than Matt Barnes in his last year in college (he had far greater responsibility than Barnes in his last year of college)--so that bodes well for him.
Overall, he's a smart NBA-ready role player who probably serves best as a cog for playoff teams (as a guy who can score a little bit of everywhere and can play defense), but we're a team where his tough-as-nails attitude and defense would also be highly needed. Unfortunately, he somewhat reminds me of Andres Nocioni--from the spot up three point shooting to the ballhandling limitations to the desire to hawk on D, if we draft him we just would be getting a near duplicate. And SF isn't a real position of need either. So while I like his game overall, it doesn't gel exactly with the team, so pass.
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dj3ptspecialist44
G-League
My knock on him is that he's 24 years old or is turning 24 that's pretty old to be a rookie. I mean he'd be a great player for us, but i'd have to go with someone younger with higher potential.
Arby's Roast Beef
Starter
At #23, here's my list: (in this order)
Eric Maynor (if still available)
Austin Daye (if still available)
Jeff Teague (if still available)
Ty Lawson (if still available)
Terrence Williams (if still available)
Jrue Holiday (if still available--doubt it)
James Johnson
Nick Calathes
Patrick Mills
Darren Collison
Marcus Thornton
Omri Casspi
Sam Young
Victor Claver
Chase Budinger
Wayne Ellington
Eric Maynor (if still available)
Austin Daye (if still available)
Jeff Teague (if still available)
Ty Lawson (if still available)
Terrence Williams (if still available)
Jrue Holiday (if still available--doubt it)
James Johnson
Nick Calathes
Patrick Mills
Darren Collison
Marcus Thornton
Omri Casspi
Sam Young
Victor Claver
Chase Budinger
Wayne Ellington
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Vlade4GM
All-Star
Well, he's never going to be much more than a role player, but he can be a pretty good role player ala James Posey.
S
sactownfan
Guest
Sptsjunkie
Starter
They have Daye slipping to us at 23 too. I'd hate the first pick, but love the second.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
I would be shocked if Daye slipped that far. He's a guy that if he stayed in school would probably be a lottery pick next year. He might be a lottery pick this year after the workouts.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
Of your top seven, the only one that I think might slip to us at 23 is Terrence Williams. I would love to have him for the same reasons that I like Young. Defense. I didn't mention him because I honestly don't think he'll be there at 23. By the way, I think that Young is more athletic than Noc. Your right about his passing, but thats something that can be improved on. As you said, he doesn't turn the ball over very much, which tells me that he doesn't try to do things that he's not good at. Young will never be a star in the NBA, and Williams might. To me thats the difference between them. Which is also why I don't think Williams will be there at 23.
Arby's Roast Beef
Starter
Teague never appealed to me when people were talking him up as a lottery prospect because he just absolutely exploded in the early part of the season--it's really no surprise that a player who relies so heavily on his shot fell down to earth. Now that his value is probably where it truly lies--somewhere in the 20s range (I'm a bit skeptical about his talent as a teens pick)--I think we can warm up to him.
It's no surprise the guy is a scorer, but I think the bigger surprise is how few possessions he needs to score his points; he doesn't have the highest field goal attempt/possession or usage rate (because of how deep his team is), but the guy is among the top in pts/play, pts/possession. That's a testament to his scoring tools--he can do virtually everything and do it well, as shown by his 62% TS; he shoots 44% from threes (although he doesn't take too many) and is one of the better point guards at getting to the line, so clearly the guy's offensive game is highly advanced and effective.
His scoring ability is definite first round material, but it's the other facets of the game which lower the intrigue a notch. As I said in another post, I think he'll just be mostly a scorer in the NBA--Teague really didn't improve any aspect of the game besides his scoring efficiency between his freshman and sophomore years (he just commanded a higher usage rate, shot the ball better and went to the line more). That's a mild concern because he's among the bottom in assists in general among PGs, and he's not much of a rebounder; he can steal the ball like most players of his size and speed can, though.
Overall he'll definitely find a niche as a scorer in the NBA, and his scoring is such that he can take it to Jason Terry levels and become a starter because of it--it's really that good. In fact, their college stats are comparable even with the assist rates--Teague went to the line more, but Terry shot more threes--so that really bodes well for him, and explains why I can overlook all his lack of all-around game--his scoring is just that good. If he's still around at #23 (I'd give it a 30% chance to say he's still there as of now), then we should take a look at him--the guy's scoring is legit, and he does have the athleticism, speed and stealing ability to potentially help defensively. Granted we probably should go for a athletic point guard who could clamp down defensively, but Teague's offensive firepower intrigues me and this is assuming we somehow snag Rubio via trade or if he falls (Teague would be a nice complement). This is a point guard deep draft, and I suspect even if we don't get Rubio at #31 we can get either Mills, Calathes or Collison (I think one will inevitably drop).
Sptsjunkie
Starter
I agree, I am actually very intrigued by Casspi. He looks like a solid prospect considering how late he is slated to go in this draft. Since Levinson was his agent before becoming our Assistant GM, I really wouldn't be surprised to see it happen. I just wonder if we would pull the trigger on him at 23 (when he should definitely be available) or hold out until #31 (where's there's about a 60-65% chance he is still there).
Even if retires before James Posey ;-)
=LarryLegend=
Starter
I like Sam Young or Terrance Williams, and Casspi. 
Levien is the name of the AGM.
Anyway, Petrie is not exactly one to avoid taking the best player simply because he thinks that player will be available later. It's a strategy I've used a lot in fantasy drafts, but Petrie won't use it in the real world. If Casspi is the top player on his board and available at #23, he'll take him rather than roll the dice on Casspi being available at #31. (Of course, this is all contingent on us not trading away #23 or #31, which I think is a strong possibility given the Rubio rumors.)
Arby's Roast Beef
Starter
I've always like Casspi dating back to last year when I really thought he would keep his name in the draft--thought he had a guarantee by the Spurs with their late 1st round pick, and there were Hedo Turkoglu comparisons bandied about with him. This year, with a deep draft he's pushed back a little and probably is a 2nd rounder, so he could potentially be a steal. Either way, he'd probably be one of the BPAs found in the 2nd round, so he'd be a sound investment for a team drafting between #30 and #40.
Casspi is fairly productive, but his intangibles take him over the top--he's energetic, tough, plays well off the ball and in addition has the mismatch combination and athleticism to also get him a leg up. The guy is a pretty good scorer in the EuroLeagues--he's 2nd on his team in points per 48, and he's fairly efficient with a 58% TS--he diversifies his offense by slashing to the basket and hitting threes every now and then, and does them well in general (among the top in his team in pts/play and pts/possession). He aggressive asserts himself in scoring--he's among the top in his team in field goal attempts/possession and uses up quite a few possessions. With his athleticism and aggressiveness, it's reasonable to believe that his entire offensive package should translate well to the next level, although his unrefined jumper and limited ballhandling might limit him in a slight degree.
Casspi's athletic markers are sound--he's a solid rebounder (and a good offensive rebounder) and a good stealer within his team. The only real red flag for him statistically is assists--the guy rarely looks to pass and has limited court vision, and is one of the worst passers on his own team right now. It's probably a minor issue in the NBA (it can be corrected as he starts to play more within the team concept), but it would definitely help his transition to SF more. To his credit he keeps his turnovers down.
Overall the guy will be a valuable role player in the NBA--he had one of the highest PERs in the EuroLeague despite playing <20 minutes per game, and his combination of aggressiveness, athleticism, and versatile scoring skills will easily endear himself to any team in the league, not to mention that he could be stashed in Europe if a team's roster is full for some reason. I think he's NBA ready, though, and while we don't exactly need a player of his prototype (we don't really need an athletic SF, he's not that great a defender, and he sort of reminds me of Andres Nocioni) he would be useful to any other team. But a potential 2nd round steal if he falls, and I arguably think he's better than Sam Young (who's a supposed 1st round pick)--statistically they're very similar, but Casspi is far younger and I like his youthful aggressiveness over Young's meat-and-potatoes work--I think Casspi is much more potential than Young does.
Casspi is fairly productive, but his intangibles take him over the top--he's energetic, tough, plays well off the ball and in addition has the mismatch combination and athleticism to also get him a leg up. The guy is a pretty good scorer in the EuroLeagues--he's 2nd on his team in points per 48, and he's fairly efficient with a 58% TS--he diversifies his offense by slashing to the basket and hitting threes every now and then, and does them well in general (among the top in his team in pts/play and pts/possession). He aggressive asserts himself in scoring--he's among the top in his team in field goal attempts/possession and uses up quite a few possessions. With his athleticism and aggressiveness, it's reasonable to believe that his entire offensive package should translate well to the next level, although his unrefined jumper and limited ballhandling might limit him in a slight degree.
Casspi's athletic markers are sound--he's a solid rebounder (and a good offensive rebounder) and a good stealer within his team. The only real red flag for him statistically is assists--the guy rarely looks to pass and has limited court vision, and is one of the worst passers on his own team right now. It's probably a minor issue in the NBA (it can be corrected as he starts to play more within the team concept), but it would definitely help his transition to SF more. To his credit he keeps his turnovers down.
Overall the guy will be a valuable role player in the NBA--he had one of the highest PERs in the EuroLeague despite playing <20 minutes per game, and his combination of aggressiveness, athleticism, and versatile scoring skills will easily endear himself to any team in the league, not to mention that he could be stashed in Europe if a team's roster is full for some reason. I think he's NBA ready, though, and while we don't exactly need a player of his prototype (we don't really need an athletic SF, he's not that great a defender, and he sort of reminds me of Andres Nocioni) he would be useful to any other team. But a potential 2nd round steal if he falls, and I arguably think he's better than Sam Young (who's a supposed 1st round pick)--statistically they're very similar, but Casspi is far younger and I like his youthful aggressiveness over Young's meat-and-potatoes work--I think Casspi is much more potential than Young does.
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Arby's Roast Beef
Starter
I see that Collison's not considered much here as the 23rd pick--I wouldn't consider him much either. He's probably a reach at #23, but would be a solid pick at #31--his talent level is probably better suited there. I'm lukewarm on him--I actually liked him better in his sophomore year when he was still considered an up-and-comer, because he actually did two things really well then: pass and steal the ball really well. I generally like those marks the most out of point guards, because they show leadership and a typical point guard athletic marker, but since then those numbers have regressed (his assists/poss dropped from 0.48 to 0.38, assists per 40 dropped from 7.1 to 6.1, and his steals per 40 dropped from 2.8 to 2.1). In fact, it probably would've been wiser for Collison to enter the draft in his sophomore year to capitalize on his rising play--I really get the feeling that he stayed in college too long, because his numbers are relatively stayed the same.
Collison has a very low usage rate for a point guard, which suits him well as he could easily make the transition to role player in the NBA, but he's highly efficient with his possessions. He likes to shoot the ball with those few possessions, and is a pretty good bargain for success with his 62% TS--he's a high percentage shooter from everywhere (in particular he's one of the best point guards in hitting two pointers) and that's a fact substantiated by his body of work in college--he's had a true shooting percentage of 60%+ in his last three years of college. He prefers to slash more than shoot three pointers though--he's surprisingly solid at getting to the line, and doesn't have a great sample space of three pointers. However, there are major concerns--he's too slight of frame and small to finish among the trees in the NBA, and he has a slow, strange release on his jumper, so despite all his success shooting the ball at college, that's why scouts question his ability to score in the NBA. I think he's smart and heady enough to overcome that, as shown in his college shooting, and eventually prove to be serviceable offensively though.
Collison still cuts it as a solid playmaker--his assists/FG~possession and assist/turnover are solid, but compared to his past success there, just not as prominent. His quickness athletic marker is most reflected in steals--he's a good stealer, again, but he's lost some here from his past success. So while Collison a low-usage high-efficiency player who proved that he can shoot the ball and pass/steal the ball pretty well, when you take into account the potential lack of success his scoring might have in the NBA, as well as his decreased assists/steals, the intrigue is drastically lessened. He's still a solid roleplayer, I would imagine in a richer man's Jacque Vaughn mold, or maybe a poor man's Chris Duhon--I think he's more of a college player than NBA player, but his talent level is better served at the end of the first round with all the questions that he raises. So not a good pick at #23 with better options available, but he could be a solid pick at #31 depending on if we need a point guard--he plays defense and passes the ball well enough, so he could be a bargain there.
Collison has a very low usage rate for a point guard, which suits him well as he could easily make the transition to role player in the NBA, but he's highly efficient with his possessions. He likes to shoot the ball with those few possessions, and is a pretty good bargain for success with his 62% TS--he's a high percentage shooter from everywhere (in particular he's one of the best point guards in hitting two pointers) and that's a fact substantiated by his body of work in college--he's had a true shooting percentage of 60%+ in his last three years of college. He prefers to slash more than shoot three pointers though--he's surprisingly solid at getting to the line, and doesn't have a great sample space of three pointers. However, there are major concerns--he's too slight of frame and small to finish among the trees in the NBA, and he has a slow, strange release on his jumper, so despite all his success shooting the ball at college, that's why scouts question his ability to score in the NBA. I think he's smart and heady enough to overcome that, as shown in his college shooting, and eventually prove to be serviceable offensively though.
Collison still cuts it as a solid playmaker--his assists/FG~possession and assist/turnover are solid, but compared to his past success there, just not as prominent. His quickness athletic marker is most reflected in steals--he's a good stealer, again, but he's lost some here from his past success. So while Collison a low-usage high-efficiency player who proved that he can shoot the ball and pass/steal the ball pretty well, when you take into account the potential lack of success his scoring might have in the NBA, as well as his decreased assists/steals, the intrigue is drastically lessened. He's still a solid roleplayer, I would imagine in a richer man's Jacque Vaughn mold, or maybe a poor man's Chris Duhon--I think he's more of a college player than NBA player, but his talent level is better served at the end of the first round with all the questions that he raises. So not a good pick at #23 with better options available, but he could be a solid pick at #31 depending on if we need a point guard--he plays defense and passes the ball well enough, so he could be a bargain there.
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Sptsjunkie
Starter
You caught me on the name of the AGM. Thought I might get zinged for that.
I agree about Petrie's strategy too. I just don't know how much he likes him. I just wouldn't mind seeing him in a Kings uniform. Let Greene and him push each other.
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