It's pretty early to say that. You're not going to see a lot of '03 drafts where there was only one legit bust out of the top 8 (and 4 downright stars), and the last two years have been very strong.
But '06 was pretty bad - Aldridge, Roy, Gay and maybe Foye and Rondo. Everybody else looks busted, bust-y, or is a role player.
'05 wasn't much better with Deron, Chris Paul, Bynum, and Granger legit, Bogut, Marvin Williams, Felton and Webster iffy, and the rest role players at best.
'02 was also pretty weak - after Yao, Amare, and Caron Butler you've got Nene who has only recently become consistent, and then Prince, Gooden, Dunleavy and Salmons on the next tier.
So nearly half the drafts since 2000 are at that "four marquee names, four decent players" level at best. Even assuming Rubio's not going to declare, I'd feel fairly comfortable saying that everybody in DraftExpress' top 12 right now has a decent shot of panning out (Griffin, Harden, Monroe, Holiday, Hill, Lawson, Curry, Thabeet, Clark, Jennings, Mullen, DeRozan). I'm not a big fan of Clark and I think Lawson's ceiling is a bit low, but with those guys and the fact that some later picks always pan out (maybe Collison or Mills, maybe Damion James or Jerome Jordan, who knows?) I think this draft can still turn out as strong as the three I mentioned.
But '06 was pretty bad - Aldridge, Roy, Gay and maybe Foye and Rondo. Everybody else looks busted, bust-y, or is a role player.
'05 wasn't much better with Deron, Chris Paul, Bynum, and Granger legit, Bogut, Marvin Williams, Felton and Webster iffy, and the rest role players at best.
'02 was also pretty weak - after Yao, Amare, and Caron Butler you've got Nene who has only recently become consistent, and then Prince, Gooden, Dunleavy and Salmons on the next tier.
So nearly half the drafts since 2000 are at that "four marquee names, four decent players" level at best. Even assuming Rubio's not going to declare, I'd feel fairly comfortable saying that everybody in DraftExpress' top 12 right now has a decent shot of panning out (Griffin, Harden, Monroe, Holiday, Hill, Lawson, Curry, Thabeet, Clark, Jennings, Mullen, DeRozan). I'm not a big fan of Clark and I think Lawson's ceiling is a bit low, but with those guys and the fact that some later picks always pan out (maybe Collison or Mills, maybe Damion James or Jerome Jordan, who knows?) I think this draft can still turn out as strong as the three I mentioned.
I agree, this is not a no brainer draft, which makes having a GM who drafts well extra important. However, there is enough talent that we should see a couple of stars and some other strong players from this draft.