and with the #1 pick in the 2009 NBA draft the Kings select...
- Thread starter RiffRaff
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I just want to ask a question... If you switched out Greg Oden with Thabeet would there be all the hype? What I mean is, If Thabeet was only 18 or 19, was in his freshman year, played for Ohio State, didn't really do a whole lot, would he be getting all the hype Oden did? I mean I saw Oden play a few times in college and really didn't see a lot. I know he is a little more athletic/agile than Thabeet but is an inch or two shorter. I don't know, just throwing it out there.
Arizona/Stanford -- I'm sorry, I just can't get excited about Jordan Hill. First off, the Wilcox comparisons are way off base. Hill is a very good athlete but he's nowhere near as explosive a leaper as Wilcox, but at the same time, Wilcox is nowhere near as coordinated as Hill. Hill has good hands and is much more fluid with the ball. He's not just a jump and dunk player like Wilcox. They're much different players.
But the thing about Hill, which I've felt about him since his frosh year and having seen him many times -- for some reason he just adds up less than the sum of his parts. He should be a really good player, only he's just not. He's athletic, he has NBA size, he's got good hands, and yet he struggles to hit even the most basic shots when they're contested, he never seems to be in the right place, and he disappears for long stretches. He easily had a double-double against Stanford and put up eyepopping stats, and yet Stanford pretty much got what they wanted on putbacks and hoops inside, two nights after Jeff Pendergraph personally shut the entire Stanford team down.
I think the problem is that he has incredibly low BBall IQ. There are blocks he should come up with that he doesn't come up with because he has terrible anticipation. There are passes he should make that he doesn't make. He shoots falling away when he should be going strong to the hoop. He puts the ball on the floor when he should just go up with it. He brings the ball down when he should keep it high. Add up all these small moments over the course of the game and he's just less effective than he should be. Maybe all of this can be improved, but there are instincts that can't be taught that Hill just doesn't seem to have. I have a feeling he's going to bust, or at least be a severe disappointment.
Meanwhile, holy crap has Chase Budinger fallen off the face of the earth.
My draft top 5 (subject to change):
1. Hasheem Thabeet
2. Blake Griffin
3. Stephen Curry
4. Darren Collison
5. ???
But the thing about Hill, which I've felt about him since his frosh year and having seen him many times -- for some reason he just adds up less than the sum of his parts. He should be a really good player, only he's just not. He's athletic, he has NBA size, he's got good hands, and yet he struggles to hit even the most basic shots when they're contested, he never seems to be in the right place, and he disappears for long stretches. He easily had a double-double against Stanford and put up eyepopping stats, and yet Stanford pretty much got what they wanted on putbacks and hoops inside, two nights after Jeff Pendergraph personally shut the entire Stanford team down.
I think the problem is that he has incredibly low BBall IQ. There are blocks he should come up with that he doesn't come up with because he has terrible anticipation. There are passes he should make that he doesn't make. He shoots falling away when he should be going strong to the hoop. He puts the ball on the floor when he should just go up with it. He brings the ball down when he should keep it high. Add up all these small moments over the course of the game and he's just less effective than he should be. Maybe all of this can be improved, but there are instincts that can't be taught that Hill just doesn't seem to have. I have a feeling he's going to bust, or at least be a severe disappointment.
Meanwhile, holy crap has Chase Budinger fallen off the face of the earth.
My draft top 5 (subject to change):
1. Hasheem Thabeet
2. Blake Griffin
3. Stephen Curry
4. Darren Collison
5. ???
Oden didn't look lost in big games like Thabeet does.
Thabeet is at least 3-5 years off from contributing anything outside of blocking a few shots and rebounding the ball a bit. He is atrocious on defense against smaller faster players. Against bigger players he is too weak and gets abused on the boards, and pushed out of place.....
If I read correctly somewhere in this thread someone said he has an offensive game? No way.... This kid, outside of put backs, has nothing except this little mini hook thing he does every once and a while which isn't really much considering coaches probably told him to do it so he has no chance of getting it stuffed back in his face. Seriously... Shelden Williams has more offense than this guy, and we wouldn't want him taking shots out there so I don't think we will be using Thabeet for any offense.
If we bring him in look for a 3ppg 5rpg 2bpg center... Which imo sucks... Might as well bring in Jarron Collins.
If we get a top 3 our first priority should be Blake Griffin.. If not him than Mullens. If we cannot get either than we should trade down.
Thabeet is at least 3-5 years off from contributing anything outside of blocking a few shots and rebounding the ball a bit. He is atrocious on defense against smaller faster players. Against bigger players he is too weak and gets abused on the boards, and pushed out of place.....
If I read correctly somewhere in this thread someone said he has an offensive game? No way.... This kid, outside of put backs, has nothing except this little mini hook thing he does every once and a while which isn't really much considering coaches probably told him to do it so he has no chance of getting it stuffed back in his face. Seriously... Shelden Williams has more offense than this guy, and we wouldn't want him taking shots out there so I don't think we will be using Thabeet for any offense.
If we bring him in look for a 3ppg 5rpg 2bpg center... Which imo sucks... Might as well bring in Jarron Collins.
If we get a top 3 our first priority should be Blake Griffin.. If not him than Mullens. If we cannot get either than we should trade down.
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On a note other than Thabeet, I know there has been some discussion about whether certain prospects will declair (Rubio, Holliday, etc.) and it got me thinking - a prospect would be crazy not to come out this year for 2 reasons.
The first is very straight forward, it is a shallow draft and these guys will get drafted higher and make more money.
However, the second reason, is if these players want the opportunity to compete sooner rather than later, the lottery teams this year have suprisingly promising futures. Typically, it seems like half the lottery teams are disasters; however, look at the teams holding the lottery spots this year. I gave each team a rough future outlook grade too.
1 - Thunder - 3 young stars in the backcourt, including one potential superstar in Durant. Plus they have multipule picks from other teams and cap flexibility. Definitley a nice spot to land. Grade: A
2 - Washington - A lot depends on Arenas, but Jamison has trade value and Butler is a young all star. Also have a couple of young players with potential (Blatche, Critterton, Young). Grade: B
3 - Sacramento - A young, talented frontcourt. A young high scoring SG who doesn't need to dominate the ball to be effective. Multiple picks, expiring contracts that can be traded or give them cap flexibility. Grade: B+
4 - Minnesota - A young second banana type at PF/C. A solid, young scoring guard with Foye. A multi-talented player in Miller who can be traded or help the team. Love is at least a nice backup who can rebound and pass. And if Brewer has a pulse even better. If they hire a good coach, this team could improve greatly. Grade: B+
5 - Clippers - Big contracts, 2 young players, and the Clippers, one of the worst situations to land in. Grade: C
6 - Warriors - Their coaching situation and veterans make this rough. However, Ellis, Randolph, Wright and Biedrens give them a nice young core and even Morrow looks like a scoring spark plug. Grade: B+
7 - Grizzlies - They have 2 potential star players (Gay, Mayo). A center who does the dirty work. 2 young point guards. And a couple of limited, but still nice young front court pieces (Warrik, Arthur, Darko). Cap flexiblity. Grade: A
7 - Bobcats - Probably the worst situation to land in. Mediocre players, no cap space for years. Few tradeable pieces. Just DJ. Grade: D-
8 - Pacers - Granger is a star player in the making. TJ Ford, Hibbert and Rush give them some nice young pieces too. I believe it will still be a few years before they have a chance at cap space though. Grade: B+
9 - 76ers - AI, Brand, Miller (maybe), Louie Louie, Thadeus Young, Dalembert (he has to be better than this). This team should be a lot better and should be a playoff team. Nice place to land. Grade: A
10 - Knicks - Dantoni, capspace, Chandler, New York Grade: A-
11 - Bulls - Superstar potential PG, young frontcout players with potential, solid young wings. Grade: A
It starts getting cloudier from here, but the point is, there is only two iffy team (Wizards, Clippers) and one very bad situation (Bobcats). Other than that, any situation a player lands in has a lot of potential. There are very few of those trainwreck situations you typically see early in the lottery.
The first is very straight forward, it is a shallow draft and these guys will get drafted higher and make more money.
However, the second reason, is if these players want the opportunity to compete sooner rather than later, the lottery teams this year have suprisingly promising futures. Typically, it seems like half the lottery teams are disasters; however, look at the teams holding the lottery spots this year. I gave each team a rough future outlook grade too.
1 - Thunder - 3 young stars in the backcourt, including one potential superstar in Durant. Plus they have multipule picks from other teams and cap flexibility. Definitley a nice spot to land. Grade: A
2 - Washington - A lot depends on Arenas, but Jamison has trade value and Butler is a young all star. Also have a couple of young players with potential (Blatche, Critterton, Young). Grade: B
3 - Sacramento - A young, talented frontcourt. A young high scoring SG who doesn't need to dominate the ball to be effective. Multiple picks, expiring contracts that can be traded or give them cap flexibility. Grade: B+
4 - Minnesota - A young second banana type at PF/C. A solid, young scoring guard with Foye. A multi-talented player in Miller who can be traded or help the team. Love is at least a nice backup who can rebound and pass. And if Brewer has a pulse even better. If they hire a good coach, this team could improve greatly. Grade: B+
5 - Clippers - Big contracts, 2 young players, and the Clippers, one of the worst situations to land in. Grade: C
6 - Warriors - Their coaching situation and veterans make this rough. However, Ellis, Randolph, Wright and Biedrens give them a nice young core and even Morrow looks like a scoring spark plug. Grade: B+
7 - Grizzlies - They have 2 potential star players (Gay, Mayo). A center who does the dirty work. 2 young point guards. And a couple of limited, but still nice young front court pieces (Warrik, Arthur, Darko). Cap flexiblity. Grade: A
7 - Bobcats - Probably the worst situation to land in. Mediocre players, no cap space for years. Few tradeable pieces. Just DJ. Grade: D-
8 - Pacers - Granger is a star player in the making. TJ Ford, Hibbert and Rush give them some nice young pieces too. I believe it will still be a few years before they have a chance at cap space though. Grade: B+
9 - 76ers - AI, Brand, Miller (maybe), Louie Louie, Thadeus Young, Dalembert (he has to be better than this). This team should be a lot better and should be a playoff team. Nice place to land. Grade: A
10 - Knicks - Dantoni, capspace, Chandler, New York Grade: A-
11 - Bulls - Superstar potential PG, young frontcout players with potential, solid young wings. Grade: A
It starts getting cloudier from here, but the point is, there is only two iffy team (Wizards, Clippers) and one very bad situation (Bobcats). Other than that, any situation a player lands in has a lot of potential. There are very few of those trainwreck situations you typically see early in the lottery.
I may sound like a broken record, but.... what??? You trash Thabeet and yet you want Mullens, who is averaging all of 7 points and 4 rebounds and who has cracked double figures only twice all year? And Thabeet's the one you call a project?
And mark my words, Griffin will test out at 6'8". Maybe he's athletic enough to draft anyway, but the guy is far from a sure thing.
And mark my words, Griffin will test out at 6'8". Maybe he's athletic enough to draft anyway, but the guy is far from a sure thing.
Shoot, even more reason. Whatever team drafts him won't be any better next year so they'll get another very good lottery pick.
Seriously though, normally the lottery has some hopeless teams (the LeBron year the Cavs, Raptors, Clippers, etc. were all hopeless situations). In another year or two, the Spurs, Rockets, Pistons, Raptors (if they lose Bosh), etc. could be miserable situations.
Seriously though, normally the lottery has some hopeless teams (the LeBron year the Cavs, Raptors, Clippers, etc. were all hopeless situations). In another year or two, the Spurs, Rockets, Pistons, Raptors (if they lose Bosh), etc. could be miserable situations.
If you look at Hill's progress, he's gotten better every year. He's having his best year this year so far. Remember, he's only in his fifth year of organized basketball. Thus his lack of so called basketball IQ. He may not be the second coming of Marcus Camby, but I don't think he's going to be a bust.
Part of Thabeet's problem is that he's a late comer to basketball.
Part of Thabeet's problem is that he's a late comer to basketball.
Statistically he's gotten better, and yeah, he seems to be better at putbacks. But a lot of his statistical improvement comes from the fact that Bayless isn't on the team, Budinger may or may not show up any given night, and Hill's basically all they've got. He's not shooting a higher percentage, he's just shooting more.
Even with the improvement, though, I still don't think it's enough for him to stand out in the NBA. What in the heck is he going to do in the NBA to justify a top 5 pick? He's a good-not-elite athlete, he's not a great shotblocker, he's not great in the post... I guess you're just hoping he's a rebounding machine, which I don't think is a sure thing.
I mean, just think that Marreese Speights was taken in the middle of the first round last year. I'd take him over Hill 10 times out of 10.
If you're going to draft a dirty work player with a top 5 pick, at least make sure he's 7'3", I always say.
Even with the improvement, though, I still don't think it's enough for him to stand out in the NBA. What in the heck is he going to do in the NBA to justify a top 5 pick? He's a good-not-elite athlete, he's not a great shotblocker, he's not great in the post... I guess you're just hoping he's a rebounding machine, which I don't think is a sure thing.
I mean, just think that Marreese Speights was taken in the middle of the first round last year. I'd take him over Hill 10 times out of 10.
If you're going to draft a dirty work player with a top 5 pick, at least make sure he's 7'3", I always say.
Mullens shows so much more skill than Thabeet does though in his limited minutes. And also, who cares if Griffin is 6'8. If he dominates than he dominates. He's definitely at least 6'9-6'9.5 w/ shoes. He's a bit undersized but I think he will be fine.
Back to Thabeet.... He got abused by Hibbert in both their matchups.. The Roy Hibberts of the world is what he's going to be going up against in the NBA. We cannot afford to have Thabeet used and abused by the likes of a Hibbert. Also, if teams go at him small (skinnier) with a Rasheed Wallace type center he will have circles ran around him.
Please tell me why you think Thabeet deserves to be a #3 pick. He wasn't really highly thought of going into college, and every year it seems he starts well but trails off when conference play hits. Mullens has the size, and the potential to be a top pick. If he gets the minutes he seems to produce. The trouble with Mullens right now is that he has a short leash. I have only seen 4 games of his this year but if I remember correctly the only game which he saw extended minutes on the floor (where he didn't get yanked after a few minutes) he put up almost 20 points and almost 10 boards.
If I am wrong I will be the first to admit.. There are quite a few Hilton Armstrong huggers which owe me a "You were right"
Back to Thabeet.... He got abused by Hibbert in both their matchups.. The Roy Hibberts of the world is what he's going to be going up against in the NBA. We cannot afford to have Thabeet used and abused by the likes of a Hibbert. Also, if teams go at him small (skinnier) with a Rasheed Wallace type center he will have circles ran around him.
Please tell me why you think Thabeet deserves to be a #3 pick. He wasn't really highly thought of going into college, and every year it seems he starts well but trails off when conference play hits. Mullens has the size, and the potential to be a top pick. If he gets the minutes he seems to produce. The trouble with Mullens right now is that he has a short leash. I have only seen 4 games of his this year but if I remember correctly the only game which he saw extended minutes on the floor (where he didn't get yanked after a few minutes) he put up almost 20 points and almost 10 boards.
If I am wrong I will be the first to admit.. There are quite a few Hilton Armstrong huggers which owe me a "You were right"
If I am wrong I will be the first to admit.. There are quite a few Hilton Armstrong huggers which owe me a "You were right"
I remember that year, it was you and I against the world on Hilton.
I think a lot of it is people get sucked up in looking at total stats. Looking at games versus other potential NBA players tells you a lot more about how a player stacks up. If someone routinely gets abused when they come up against even marginal NBA talent, let's just say there's about a 0% chance they become a good pro. Call it the Adam Morrison or Hilton Armstrong corrolary.
Also, shotblockers tend to get overrated. Look at the lists of the top shotblockers in college every year and there is very little correlation between those lists and who makes it in the pros. There's also a big difference between being a good shotblocker and being a good defender. I've played with plenty of guys who can jump out of the gym and block several shots a game, but who routinely got burned on D and struggled with rotating and team D.
Mullens shows so much more skill than Thabeet does though in his limited minutes. And also, who cares if Griffin is 6'8. If he dominates than he dominates. He's definitely at least 6'9-6'9.5 w/ shoes. He's a bit undersized but I think he will be fine.
Back to Thabeet.... He got abused by Hibbert in both their matchups.. The Roy Hibberts of the world is what he's going to be going up against in the NBA. We cannot afford to have Thabeet used and abused by the likes of a Hibbert. Also, if teams go at him small (skinnier) with a Rasheed Wallace type center he will have circles ran around him.
Please tell me why you think Thabeet deserves to be a #3 pick. He wasn't really highly thought of going into college, and every year it seems he starts well but trails off when conference play hits. Mullens has the size, and the potential to be a top pick. If he gets the minutes he seems to produce. The trouble with Mullens right now is that he has a short leash. I have only seen 4 games of his this year but if I remember correctly the only game which he saw extended minutes on the floor (where he didn't get yanked after a few minutes) he put up almost 20 points and almost 10 boards.
If I am wrong I will be the first to admit.. There are quite a few Hilton Armstrong huggers which owe me a "You were right"
Back to Thabeet.... He got abused by Hibbert in both their matchups.. The Roy Hibberts of the world is what he's going to be going up against in the NBA. We cannot afford to have Thabeet used and abused by the likes of a Hibbert. Also, if teams go at him small (skinnier) with a Rasheed Wallace type center he will have circles ran around him.
Please tell me why you think Thabeet deserves to be a #3 pick. He wasn't really highly thought of going into college, and every year it seems he starts well but trails off when conference play hits. Mullens has the size, and the potential to be a top pick. If he gets the minutes he seems to produce. The trouble with Mullens right now is that he has a short leash. I have only seen 4 games of his this year but if I remember correctly the only game which he saw extended minutes on the floor (where he didn't get yanked after a few minutes) he put up almost 20 points and almost 10 boards.
If I am wrong I will be the first to admit.. There are quite a few Hilton Armstrong huggers which owe me a "You were right"
I was right about Shelden Williams, just like I was right about Adam Morrison and LaMarcus Aldridge, and here's why: any analysis of who is and isn't an NBA player begins with whether someone is big enough and athletic enough for their position. That's the NBA baseline. If they're not big and athletic enough, they simply can't hang. Doesn't matter their skill, doesn't matter their intangibles, doesn't matter how many awards they won in college. NBA players, and particularly the stars, are nearly all amazing athletes and are properly sized for their position. The good players are elite athletes. The stars are elite athletes who are outstanding at one facet of the game. The superstars excel at multiple facets. Certain players excel despite lacking ideal height, but they are always crazy-ridiculous athletes (Wade, Nate Robinson, Millsap -- all athletic freaks).
So it absolutely does matter how big Blake Griffin really is. I think he's 6'8" in shoes. Maybe I'm wrong, but he just doesn't look that big to me. If he's full-size, then yeah, he's probably your #1. If he's undersized... still worth a top 5 based on athleticism alone, but I'd rather take Thabeet.
And this whole theory of mine is also why I'm so high on Thabeet. The guy is just an incredible athlete for his size, combined with good hands. He can make things happen in the NBA. Worst case he's still going to be useful.
I'm not saying the guy doesn't have flaws. I didn't see those Hibbert games, but I remember reading about them. I worry about his struggles in big games and his abilities as a man defender. If this were a different draft year I'd be touting someone else. But Thabeet is, in my view, the 2nd best prospect in a truly horrendous draft class. I mean, look at what Ilgauskas is able to do around the hoop simply by virtue of being 7'3". And Thabeet has hops!
Yah, I was on Shelden Williams because we needed a PF.. Guys w/o basketball experience prior to college/intl leagues scare the hell out of me. Saer Sene is one of them. Diop is another. There are a few others but I don't have my list with me. If Thabeet came up through the US HS system, and then was highly touted by UCONN I wouldn't have a problem drafting him..
Oh BTW.. Griffin for Westbrook? You could probably get a lot more for your pick than that. How about Griffin for Westbrook, and their pick? Westbrook is pretty good, but not as pure of a PG I would want on the Kings. We need someone who doesn't turn the ball over like Beno. I really am pissed about this draft class. If Rubio is out you got Griffin and a bunch of question marks. even Griffin will have questions around him, but if I had to guess and if the Kings were #1 or top 3 with a chance to get Griffin i think that's a Petrie pick.
Oh BTW.. Griffin for Westbrook? You could probably get a lot more for your pick than that. How about Griffin for Westbrook, and their pick? Westbrook is pretty good, but not as pure of a PG I would want on the Kings. We need someone who doesn't turn the ball over like Beno. I really am pissed about this draft class. If Rubio is out you got Griffin and a bunch of question marks. even Griffin will have questions around him, but if I had to guess and if the Kings were #1 or top 3 with a chance to get Griffin i think that's a Petrie pick.
If that's the best there is, I have a hard, hard time getting excited about this draft. Collison just doesn't do it for me. Curry can shoot like hell, but I just don't see him as a point guard. I like Kevin Martin, but can you really envision what kind of D you would have with Martin and Curry on the same team? SOFT. Griffin I saw once and he looked terrible; couldn't get his shot off if they guarded him with a big guy. Thabeet looks like the wind will blow him over. If Monroe > Thabeet, and Blair > Monroe, then what the hell does that make Thabeet? Isn't there some guy in Zimbabwe that's better than these guys?
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I saw Monroe for the first time today and I came away extremely impressed. Maybe the game against Blair was a wake up call of sorts, because he attacked the basket and the boards. Hard. 10 boards today, 7 offensive, and none of them the soft type.
This guy has literally the same skillset that Webber had. Nice jumper, lefty hook, brilliant (and I mean BRILLIANT) passing ability, ballhandling, terrific hands, good quickness... only thing missing is Webber's hops. Even some of the negatives, like he was pretty inconsistent defensively (although his D was solid overall).
This guy has literally the same skillset that Webber had. Nice jumper, lefty hook, brilliant (and I mean BRILLIANT) passing ability, ballhandling, terrific hands, good quickness... only thing missing is Webber's hops. Even some of the negatives, like he was pretty inconsistent defensively (although his D was solid overall).
Monroe did look better tonight. Still a little skeptical because Notre Dame has possibly the slowest frontline in the history of college basketball, but he did look quick and impressive tonight. It's the lack of hops and lack of strength that give me pause, but no doubt he's quick for a big and has skills.
Monroe looked good. He has good quickness, great length, great anticipation, and quick hands. He's got the defensive tools to be a very good man defender. He definitely has the ability to be a good rebounder, he needs to want them more though. He needs to be more consistent at wanting to bang in the post and get involved in the dirty work. He's not a high riser, but he appears to be a quick jumper and crafty finisher. His IQ is definitely a plus and will go a long way. I worry about his weakside shot blocking ability, I'm not yet convinced he can be at least as good as Bosh which is not that good. We'll see though, so far him and Holiday are still my favorites in this draft.
It sure is a weak draft, but usually there are at least a few stars to come out of every draft. It's just about picking right. If Rubio enters, you take him if you can. I don't think he will, so if you get a top 3 pick, who do you take? I think the general consencus would be Griffin, Harden and.... well it's debatable from here out. There are a few guys that could go in this range - Thabeet, Curry, Jennings etc.
What do people think of DuJuan Summers? Only seen him play a couple times but he's impressed me. Good athlete, good shooter. Good size and understanding of the game. Reminds me of Caron Butler. Does alot of the little things and plays solid D. Not sure about him with a top 5 pick but if he was there with Houstons pick, I'd like him.
What do people think of DuJuan Summers? Only seen him play a couple times but he's impressed me. Good athlete, good shooter. Good size and understanding of the game. Reminds me of Caron Butler. Does alot of the little things and plays solid D. Not sure about him with a top 5 pick but if he was there with Houstons pick, I'd like him.
It's pretty early to say that. You're not going to see a lot of '03 drafts where there was only one legit bust out of the top 8 (and 4 downright stars), and the last two years have been very strong.
But '06 was pretty bad - Aldridge, Roy, Gay and maybe Foye and Rondo. Everybody else looks busted, bust-y, or is a role player.
'05 wasn't much better with Deron, Chris Paul, Bynum, and Granger legit, Bogut, Marvin Williams, Felton and Webster iffy, and the rest role players at best.
'02 was also pretty weak - after Yao, Amare, and Caron Butler you've got Nene who has only recently become consistent, and then Prince, Gooden, Dunleavy and Salmons on the next tier.
So nearly half the drafts since 2000 are at that "four marquee names, four decent players" level at best. Even assuming Rubio's not going to declare, I'd feel fairly comfortable saying that everybody in DraftExpress' top 12 right now has a decent shot of panning out (Griffin, Harden, Monroe, Holiday, Hill, Lawson, Curry, Thabeet, Clark, Jennings, Mullen, DeRozan). I'm not a big fan of Clark and I think Lawson's ceiling is a bit low, but with those guys and the fact that some later picks always pan out (maybe Collison or Mills, maybe Damion James or Jerome Jordan, who knows?) I think this draft can still turn out as strong as the three I mentioned.
But '06 was pretty bad - Aldridge, Roy, Gay and maybe Foye and Rondo. Everybody else looks busted, bust-y, or is a role player.
'05 wasn't much better with Deron, Chris Paul, Bynum, and Granger legit, Bogut, Marvin Williams, Felton and Webster iffy, and the rest role players at best.
'02 was also pretty weak - after Yao, Amare, and Caron Butler you've got Nene who has only recently become consistent, and then Prince, Gooden, Dunleavy and Salmons on the next tier.
So nearly half the drafts since 2000 are at that "four marquee names, four decent players" level at best. Even assuming Rubio's not going to declare, I'd feel fairly comfortable saying that everybody in DraftExpress' top 12 right now has a decent shot of panning out (Griffin, Harden, Monroe, Holiday, Hill, Lawson, Curry, Thabeet, Clark, Jennings, Mullen, DeRozan). I'm not a big fan of Clark and I think Lawson's ceiling is a bit low, but with those guys and the fact that some later picks always pan out (maybe Collison or Mills, maybe Damion James or Jerome Jordan, who knows?) I think this draft can still turn out as strong as the three I mentioned.
Athletically Summers and Butler are similar and I agree tha the does the little things, but Summers doesn't have Butler's deadly midrange game. He's a little more in the Rashard Lewis mold in that he shoots from outside or he finishes around the rim, but he's not someone who's very good at putting the ball on the floor. And it's really tough to develop a midrange game from scratch because so much of it is based on instinct -- guys like Paul Pierce, Caron Butler, and Hedo almost magically know when to pull up. And without that, I don't know how special Summers really is. He's a good not great athlete, a good not great shooter, good not great first step.
I think he'd be a decent prospect with a late first, but in this draft he may end up going much higher.
I think he'd be a decent prospect with a late first, but in this draft he may end up going much higher.
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I think this draft will be better than most people think. It may take some time for some of the players to reach their ceiling, but when the smoke clears there will be some winners there. Personaly, I judge players on what their able to do now, and not what they might be able to do in the future. Example, Harden is a very polished player with more skills than most of the players in the draft. He also has made dramatic improvements from last year. He's not the most athletic player in the draft, but contrary to some posts, he's a good athlete.
DeRozan is an outstanding athlete, but is a long way form being a finished product. I have seen improvement from him this year and he seems to finally be fitting in to his role. 5 or 6 years from now, he may be better than Harden, based on potential. And then again, maybe not. Me! I take Harden. There's wishful thinking and there's positive thinking. Wishful thinking is trying to wish a player into what you want him to be. Positive thinking is taking a player that already has the skills your hoping the other player will develop.
DeRozan is an outstanding athlete, but is a long way form being a finished product. I have seen improvement from him this year and he seems to finally be fitting in to his role. 5 or 6 years from now, he may be better than Harden, based on potential. And then again, maybe not. Me! I take Harden. There's wishful thinking and there's positive thinking. Wishful thinking is trying to wish a player into what you want him to be. Positive thinking is taking a player that already has the skills your hoping the other player will develop.