Analyzing the Murray pick (Split from the Welcome thread)
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4. Sacramento Kings
Keegan Murray | 6-foot-8, forward | 21 years old, sophomore | Iowa
Vecenie’s ranking: 8.
I buy Murray becoming an impactful and probably starter-quality NBA player who puts up numbers as a scorer. He’s going to knock down shots, attack closeouts and take advantage of any leverage-based mismatch he gets. Tobias Harris is the current NBA player I see most when I watch Murray. He is at his best when keeping things simple, with no frills. Murray will push the ball in transition, catch and shoot, make the occasional mid-post self-created bucket, and hit opposing guards on post mismatches. I also buy him as a shooter from all over the court in a variety of situations, meaning coaches will be able to move him around. Ultimately, his value will come down to whether he can be a switch guy on defense who can at least hold up at the point of attack, even if he’s not a lockdown stopper.
Hollinger’s team fit: Another surprise in the top 4! The consensus pick here was Purdue’s Jaden Ivey, but the Kings went with the better roster fit of Murray instead. The Kings only had one real forward on the roster and Murray’s effortless bucket-getting will help them in the short term, especially if new coach Mike Brown runs a similar system to Golden State’s. But this is a pretty big windfall to Detroit right behind them, who I expect to pounce on Ivey at 5.
Keegan Murray | 6-foot-8, forward | 21 years old, sophomore | Iowa
Vecenie’s ranking: 8.
I buy Murray becoming an impactful and probably starter-quality NBA player who puts up numbers as a scorer. He’s going to knock down shots, attack closeouts and take advantage of any leverage-based mismatch he gets. Tobias Harris is the current NBA player I see most when I watch Murray. He is at his best when keeping things simple, with no frills. Murray will push the ball in transition, catch and shoot, make the occasional mid-post self-created bucket, and hit opposing guards on post mismatches. I also buy him as a shooter from all over the court in a variety of situations, meaning coaches will be able to move him around. Ultimately, his value will come down to whether he can be a switch guy on defense who can at least hold up at the point of attack, even if he’s not a lockdown stopper.
Hollinger’s team fit: Another surprise in the top 4! The consensus pick here was Purdue’s Jaden Ivey, but the Kings went with the better roster fit of Murray instead. The Kings only had one real forward on the roster and Murray’s effortless bucket-getting will help them in the short term, especially if new coach Mike Brown runs a similar system to Golden State’s. But this is a pretty big windfall to Detroit right behind them, who I expect to pounce on Ivey at 5.
Gotta give the Kings an A for tonights draft!
I think really the path of least resistance for the Kings to improve this roster tonight was achieved (and more) --
Chimizie Metu took 186 3's last season for the kings making 30.6% of those attempts
Mo Harkless took 101 3's at 30%
Terence Davis 149 3's at 32.9%
Jeremy Lamb 53 3's at 30.2%
Bagley took 62 3's at a dismal 24.2% success rate
Fox and Davion Mitchell combined to take 569 3's at a 30.7% clip
Keegan Murray (and to a lesser extent Vezenkov) is going to REALLY help bring the quality of our 3pt shooting up.. Which will make things easier for Fox to get loose and we can put defenses in a pick your posion situation rather than them keying their whole defense on him..
Murray is a guy with a large repertoire of fakes and jab steps and he knows how to use them, the ballmovement will be better and its going to have a reverberating effect on the entire team. Plus Murray is multipositional defender, hes good in transition he's good off the ball -- When teams played Iowa this season their entire gameplan was to slow him down and still youll see in the footage time and time again him picking off their weaknesses and exploiting them so other then having him guard better players than hes used to I dont think the Kings are going to ask him to do much of anything he isnt already comfortable with and didnt get a ton of reps with in college.. Which is one of the things that differentiates him with many of the other top lotto picks, its fair to say he's got a bit more polish.
Add in the unselfish play and crisp clean ballmovement and vision of Sabonis, and penetration from Fox. DiVicenzo can settle in a bit more and finally has the rust off the tires from the injury, plus he now has more help sharing the load in replacing the massive hole left by Buddy and Haliburtons 3pt prowess... Keegan Murray is going to fit in like a natural around here.. Plus if he can help us play more efficient on offense and we can get more leads this is gonna give Davion Mitchell more opportunities to put the clamps on the opposition and have it hold weight. Murray's got a chance to look like exactly what we needed, which for a team that finished with 30 wins is above what we could really hope for. Super excited.
I think really the path of least resistance for the Kings to improve this roster tonight was achieved (and more) --
Chimizie Metu took 186 3's last season for the kings making 30.6% of those attempts
Mo Harkless took 101 3's at 30%
Terence Davis 149 3's at 32.9%
Jeremy Lamb 53 3's at 30.2%
Bagley took 62 3's at a dismal 24.2% success rate
Fox and Davion Mitchell combined to take 569 3's at a 30.7% clip
Keegan Murray (and to a lesser extent Vezenkov) is going to REALLY help bring the quality of our 3pt shooting up.. Which will make things easier for Fox to get loose and we can put defenses in a pick your posion situation rather than them keying their whole defense on him..
Murray is a guy with a large repertoire of fakes and jab steps and he knows how to use them, the ballmovement will be better and its going to have a reverberating effect on the entire team. Plus Murray is multipositional defender, hes good in transition he's good off the ball -- When teams played Iowa this season their entire gameplan was to slow him down and still youll see in the footage time and time again him picking off their weaknesses and exploiting them so other then having him guard better players than hes used to I dont think the Kings are going to ask him to do much of anything he isnt already comfortable with and didnt get a ton of reps with in college.. Which is one of the things that differentiates him with many of the other top lotto picks, its fair to say he's got a bit more polish.
Add in the unselfish play and crisp clean ballmovement and vision of Sabonis, and penetration from Fox. DiVicenzo can settle in a bit more and finally has the rust off the tires from the injury, plus he now has more help sharing the load in replacing the massive hole left by Buddy and Haliburtons 3pt prowess... Keegan Murray is going to fit in like a natural around here.. Plus if he can help us play more efficient on offense and we can get more leads this is gonna give Davion Mitchell more opportunities to put the clamps on the opposition and have it hold weight. Murray's got a chance to look like exactly what we needed, which for a team that finished with 30 wins is above what we could really hope for. Super excited.
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I think that Murray can be a serious threat for the Rookie of the Year here.. I dont see what would hold him back..
To me he's got a lot of similarities with Jayson Tatum.. The way he is very professional and doesnt waste time but also isnt in a rush and will quickly make the read and make a fake or a jabstep and then drive it or create his own shot, is something that can't be bought in the NBA other than for mega $$$, so he's just low risk high reward IMO.
He's super comfortable for a rookie using both hands too.. He's got a solid jump hook a little drop step. I think I recall seeing him even do one of the Nowitzki like turnaround fadeways this season. Player whos 6'8 with long arms whos got really good feet and gets to the spots he needs to be, and has a soft touch. Hes older but look at his frame, he'll strengthen up a good bit in the next few years.
To me he's got a lot of similarities with Jayson Tatum.. The way he is very professional and doesnt waste time but also isnt in a rush and will quickly make the read and make a fake or a jabstep and then drive it or create his own shot, is something that can't be bought in the NBA other than for mega $$$, so he's just low risk high reward IMO.
He's super comfortable for a rookie using both hands too.. He's got a solid jump hook a little drop step. I think I recall seeing him even do one of the Nowitzki like turnaround fadeways this season. Player whos 6'8 with long arms whos got really good feet and gets to the spots he needs to be, and has a soft touch. Hes older but look at his frame, he'll strengthen up a good bit in the next few years.
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Yeah, Murray moves really well off the ball. He couldn't really show it this season because for all intents and purposes he WAS Iowa's entire offense but in his rookie season when they were pounding the ball in to Garza, he was pretty good at sneaking into holes.
He's not necessarily the best iso-creator right now but with the current Kings roster, he doesn't need to be.
He's not necessarily the best iso-creator right now but with the current Kings roster, he doesn't need to be.
with me watching zero college ball this season I'm all for either drafting defense or high BBIQ players so he seems to fit that mold based on what I've been reading from Baja's analysis throughout the season and leading up to the draft. The Kings for too many lotteries have drafted athletic and high potential so I like this different approach from Monte and crew. Best of success to you Keegan, hopefully the Kings don't stunt your growth and Coach Brown puts you in a position to contribute year 1.
Yep. Once again. Mock draft warriors can believe Ivey is BPA all we want (Just like we thought Moses Moody was last year), but I think it's clear Monte and staff have a process and stick with it. Keegan wasn't just a coin-flip over Ivey, he's making it clear there was no decision.
He has to be right obviously, but it's refreshing having a GM in charge that's so confident in his process.
Did Perk and Bilas compare Murray to Siakam?
Siakam would be just about a perfect PF for this team.
I don't believe the talk that Murray has a low ceiling. He made big improvements from his freshman year. He is just a good all around player, a smart player, a two way player.
If nothing else his shooting would be a welcome addition for this team.
I am still not sure if he is better of at PF or SF in the NBA. A bit like Tobias Harris.
Siakam would be just about a perfect PF for this team.
I don't believe the talk that Murray has a low ceiling. He made big improvements from his freshman year. He is just a good all around player, a smart player, a two way player.
If nothing else his shooting would be a welcome addition for this team.
I am still not sure if he is better of at PF or SF in the NBA. A bit like Tobias Harris.
It is, indeed. Most strong, well-organized NBA front offices engage in processes that exist a world apart from the punditry and armchair GM'ing. They don't abandon their process because of "consensus." They don't ignore their process because of fear of ridicule. Like all Kings fans, I'm tired of the losing. But even more than the losing, I'm tired of feeling like the franchise is rudderless, unstable, and driven by petty internal power struggles. Since Monte McNair's hiring, I feel much more confident that the Kings have both direction and stability, and that they are driven by a desire to win above all else. Will they reach the playoffs before Vivek gets impatient enough or bored enough to can yet another GM? I don't know. But I am relieved by the feeling that there are adults in the room, that they're running the show, and that they can deliver results if given the time to see their process through.
I haven't been shy about liking both Ivey and Mathurin but I also don't think you can succeed in the modern NBA without a multi-dimensional two-way forward who can score inside the paint and outside the arc and defend on the perimeter or in the paint. That seems to be the secret sauce that is carrying teams to the playoffs right now and we finally have someone who fits that description. I couldn't care less about upside, I just want us to draft guys who know how to play team basketball.
There's still some work to be done. I want Monte to find a way to poach OG Anunoby from Toronto. I'm also not entirely sold on Donte or Davis yet as our shooting guards of the future but not everything is going to come together at once. We'll still have the cap space to plug a hole in 2023 or 2024. Establishing the winning culture comes first.
There's still some work to be done. I want Monte to find a way to poach OG Anunoby from Toronto. I'm also not entirely sold on Donte or Davis yet as our shooting guards of the future but not everything is going to come together at once. We'll still have the cap space to plug a hole in 2023 or 2024. Establishing the winning culture comes first.
There is a natural tendency to try to justify a choice, but people are going overboard with the Tatum comparisons and the thoughts of him playing the three while Barnes plays the 4. Dude is a 4/3. He simply does not have the handles to create his own shot right now. You can’t play the three at a high level in the NBA if you can’t face up and drive and score/create.
I watched the game below live. Murray had a great stat line (so don’t even start with the cherry picking nonsense), but nothing really popped beyond his three point shooting. Count the number of turnovers (some turnovers were unaccredited) when he drives. And look at how he scores when he’s in the paint. He’s grinding through guys. He’s not Tim Duncing dudes with footwork or fadeaway or skill. This game was against Trayce Jackson Davis. Dude will prob be an UDFA when he comes out. Those points in the paint will evaporate against NBA length. His saving grace will be that three point shot initially. The rest will take work. On defense, he’s aware. So if he’s playing within a team defense, should do well. His ceiling is a 4/3 version of Harrison Barnes. He pierces it, if he can play the 5. Then his ceiling becomes Al Horford. Good, but never elite.
I watched the game below live. Murray had a great stat line (so don’t even start with the cherry picking nonsense), but nothing really popped beyond his three point shooting. Count the number of turnovers (some turnovers were unaccredited) when he drives. And look at how he scores when he’s in the paint. He’s grinding through guys. He’s not Tim Duncing dudes with footwork or fadeaway or skill. This game was against Trayce Jackson Davis. Dude will prob be an UDFA when he comes out. Those points in the paint will evaporate against NBA length. His saving grace will be that three point shot initially. The rest will take work. On defense, he’s aware. So if he’s playing within a team defense, should do well. His ceiling is a 4/3 version of Harrison Barnes. He pierces it, if he can play the 5. Then his ceiling becomes Al Horford. Good, but never elite.
McNair sure likes those high IQ, good feel for the game types (Haliburton, Mitchell, Murray), but I think that's pretty apparent with the other guys he's brought on board as well (Sabonis & DiVincenzo).
We may not be the most talented team (obviously), but I think it's safe to say that we're not going to beat ourselves a lot next season with the IQ of some of these players.
And for what it's worth a starting lineup of Fox-DiVincenzo-Barnes-Murray-Sabonis is very well balanced and complementary.
Again, we're definitely not the most talented team, but it will be interesting if the "on paper" fit, complementary roster, chemistry, healthy lockerroom, emphasis on bringing in high IQ players, bringing in a hardnose defensive coach, etc. give us a 1 + 1 = 3 effect next season.
We may not be the most talented team (obviously), but I think it's safe to say that we're not going to beat ourselves a lot next season with the IQ of some of these players.
And for what it's worth a starting lineup of Fox-DiVincenzo-Barnes-Murray-Sabonis is very well balanced and complementary.
- Scoring would be solid with Fox & Sabonis are the primary scoring options and Barnes and Murray as secondary scoring options
- spacing around Fox & Sabonis would be solidwith DiVincenzo (.368 3P% on 7.8 3PA per 36 min w/ SAC last season), Barnes (.394 3P% on 5.0 3PA per 36 min last season), & Murray (.398 3P% on 5.4 3PA per 36 min last season). Not to mention Sabonis has some range (.319 3P% on 1.7 3PA per 36 min for his career and supposedly been working hard on his shot this offseason) and Fox shot well after the Haliburton trade (.368 3P% on 5.7 3PA per 36 min after Haliburton trade)
- Passing would be solid with Fox, DiVincenzo, & Sabonis being good playmakers. Barnes & Murray move the ball, are unselfish, & turn the ball over at a low rate
- Cutting would be solid with DiVincenzo, Barnes, & Murray all being good at cutting to the basket (with Sabonis finding them).
- Screen setting would be solid with Sabonis freeing up his teammates with his screens.
- Rebounding would be solid with Sabonis leading the charge with his 12-13 REB per 36 min. Murray is a good rebounder averaging 9.8 REB per 36 min, DiVincenzo is a great rebounder for his position at around 6 REB per 36 min, and Barnes & Fox are solid for there positions (~6 REB per 36 min for Barnes and ~4 REB per 36 min for Fox)
- Basketball IQ would be solid with Sabonis, Murray, Barnes, & DiVincenzo all having a good feel for the game. I think Fox has the potential to get there but have him at around average basketball IQ.
- Defense may be better than last year but I still don't see it becoming a strength one day. Fox & Sabonis are below average defenders and Barnes is an average defender. I do have DiVincenzo as a plus defender and I think Murray has the potential to be a plus defender as well, but there are too many weak links that can be exploited here. The X factor here is Brown. If Brown can get Fox to consistently commit on defense like we know he can, we all of a sudden become much more formidable on that side of the ball. Also, Murray gives us a potential rim protector next to Sabonis (2.2 BLK per 36 min) which was sorely lacking last season. If that skill translates, he'll be a great long term fit with Sabonis long term.
Again, we're definitely not the most talented team, but it will be interesting if the "on paper" fit, complementary roster, chemistry, healthy lockerroom, emphasis on bringing in high IQ players, bringing in a hardnose defensive coach, etc. give us a 1 + 1 = 3 effect next season.