Analysis Paralysis McNair

[TaxMan]

I like Wright and didn’t have a strong opinion on the Tristan trade.

It’s funny how pointing out an obvious pattern of McNair’s, in a fair way, is interpreted ss being negative. I’m not negative on McNair YET.

He also completed two trades at the trade deadline (maybe more if I'm not remembering correctly), and curiously enough I don't remember any rumors about either of those deals before they were done. If the overall hypothesis is that he's paralyzed by fear of making a bad decision and so things keep falling through, I'd say there are a variety of equally plausible explanations:

1. The Bogi deal appears to have been leaked inappropriately by someone (seems like the bucks) which blew up the deal. Lots of chatter after around why, but seems like nobody wanted potential fines for tampering so not sure how to read that. I can't see how this had anything to do with Monte not making a confident decision.

2. Seems pretty clear the Lakers were playing us, and probably the Wizards, off each other in negotiations. At the end of the day, it's not like the Lakers accepted a deal that was comparable to what we were offering with Hield. The Lakers decided to accept a deal for a non-shooter with a huge salary. It's not like Monte was twiddling his thumbs and so LA agreed to send the same package to Washington for Davis Bertans - a similar three point shooter, also with a large contract.

3. Who knows what happened with the Thompson trade, but seems more likely a salary cap issue due to the Celtic's situation as part of a more complicated three way deal.

Isn't it just possible that in the current social media environment, with instant reactions and a desire to break news 24/7, that we feel like we know more than we really do?

 

[The_Jamal]

I think it's pretty fair to call Monte McNair's tenure as Kings' GM "conservative," to this point. That said, he hasn't been on the job all that long. I'm not ready to say he suffers from "analysis paralysis." I think that's a better descriptor for, say, Danny Ainge's years-long stockpiling of young assets that he never bothered to convert into the proven winners that would return the Celtics to title contention, per his own publicly-stated agenda. It ultimately cost him his job in Boston.

If the Kings go into the 2021-2022 season with Buddy Hield and Marvin Bagley still on the roster, then I think it would be more fair to characterize McNair as suffering from a similar (though less severe) malady as a GM. Neither Hield nor Bagley are particularly quiet personalities when it comes to the way they perceive their respective roles on the team. It shows little respect for locker room dynamics to gesture so heavily in the direction of trading players like that while neglecting to pull the trigger. It's a problem for team chemistry/cohesion and it's a problem for roster balance, given the moves that McNair has already been making this offseason.

I certainly don't think McNair should make a trade just to make a trade, but good GM's find ways to spin superfluous talent into better-fitting talent. If the Kings are trying to "win now," then McNair's got more work to do this offseason. It can't just happen at the margins with moves that barely even breathe on the needle, like the apparent Delon Wright/Tristan Thompson swap that may or may not materialize. The offseason is only just beginning, of course. Monte's got time. Let's see what he does with it.

A lot really does rely on what McNair gets done in the next week or so. If Holmes inks his early-bird rights deal, that's an incredible value. If we lose him for nothing, that makes his trade deadline significantly worse and a total misread of his market.

For me to consider this off-season a win:

Resign Holmes 4/47
Sign a 3/4 flex wing with MLE (THT, Vanderbilt, Hart, Winslow, Porter)
Trade Buddy for roster balance/some value

 

[kb02]

He also completed two trades at the trade deadline (maybe more if I'm not remembering correctly), and curiously enough I don't remember any rumors about either of those deals before they were done. If the overall hypothesis is that he's paralyzed by fear of making a bad decision and so things keep falling through, I'd say there are a variety of equally plausible explanations:

1. The Bogi deal appears to have been leaked inappropriately by someone (seems like the bucks) which blew up the deal. Lots of chatter after around why, but seems like nobody wanted potential fines for tampering so not sure how to read that. I can't see how this had anything to do with Monte not making a confident decision.

2. Seems pretty clear the Lakers were playing us, and probably the Wizards, off each other in negotiations. At the end of the day, it's not like the Lakers accepted a deal that was comparable to what we were offering with Hield. The Lakers decided to accept a deal for a non-shooter with a huge salary. It's not like Monte was twiddling his thumbs and so LA agreed to send the same package to Washington for Davis Bertans - a similar three point shooter, also with a large contract.

3. Who knows what happened with the Thompson trade, but seems more likely a salary cap issue due to the Celtic's situation as part of a more complicated three way deal.

Isn't it just possible that in the current social media environment, with instant reactions and a desire to break news 24/7, that we feel like we know more than we really do?

#1. We're talking about different Bogi deals. I'm not hanging the Milwaukee fiasco on Monte. The deal in question is the ATL offer.

#2. I think it's true to some extent though I would say it's less LAL and more Lebron and AD stepping in. Less dragging on both ends and maybe the deal gets done before Lebron and AD step in.

#3. I hope it's Holmes settling for the Kings deal, because his market dried up and Monte backing out. That's the best case scenario for the Kings.

 

[Telemachus]

He also completed two trades at the trade deadline (maybe more if I'm not remembering correctly), and curiously enough I don't remember any rumors about either of those deals before they were done. If the overall hypothesis is that he's paralyzed by fear of making a bad decision and so things keep falling through, I'd say there are a variety of equally plausible explanations:

1. The Bogi deal appears to have been leaked inappropriately by someone (seems like the bucks) which blew up the deal. Lots of chatter after around why, but seems like nobody wanted potential fines for tampering so not sure how to read that. I can't see how this had anything to do with Monte not making a confident decision.

2. Seems pretty clear the Lakers were playing us, and probably the Wizards, off each other in negotiations. At the end of the day, it's not like the Lakers accepted a deal that was comparable to what we were offering with Hield. The Lakers decided to accept a deal for a non-shooter with a huge salary. It's not like Monte was twiddling his thumbs and so LA agreed to send the same package to Washington for Davis Bertans - a similar three point shooter, also with a large contract.

3. Who knows what happened with the Thompson trade, but seems more likely a salary cap issue due to the Celtic's situation as part of a more complicated three way deal.

Isn't it just possible that in the current social media environment, with instant reactions and a desire to break news 24/7, that we feel like we know more than we really do?

I think it was more that the Lakers were playing Harrel. All indications are that he opted in so he could be traded to the Kings(because of Rico Hines). As soon as he opted in, the Lakers switched up and made the trade with Washington. The Lakers pissed off a lot of people with this move.

 

[Padrino]

I'm really confused about the LA deal though, LeBron needs a shooter not a player who needs his own ball on the court. Unless I missed some rule changes for next season, why would he have been the one behind this deal?

* and yeah - I've seen the reports that state he and Westbrook orchestrated this. If it's just playing with your friends ok cool, but I thought he came to LA to bring them championships not make Space Jams and create a ludicrously overpaid "big 3" that will be lucky to get past the second round against any team with any depth.

It should be noted that Lebron has never been terribly successful at armchair GM'ing the franchises for whom he's played. Since leaving Cleveland (the first time around), he's been good at finding ways to play with other high-wattage talents. But his input rarely has aided his teams in building balanced rosters. He actually hasn't played with that many great shooters throughout his entire career, despite the fact that spacing the floor around Lebron is the simplest way to unlock almost all of his once-in-a-generation gifts as the best basketball player in the world. He played with Ray Allen for one season. He played with Kyle Korver for one-and-a-half seasons. He played with Kyrie Irving for three. I can't think of many other 40%+ shooters from deep that saw significant court time with Lebron over the years. It just hasn't been valued enough by either he or the franchises for whom he's played.

 

[whozit]

I'm really confused about the LA deal though, LeBron needs a shooter not a player who needs his own ball on the court. Unless I missed some rule changes for next season, why would he have been the one behind this deal?

* and yeah - I've seen the reports that state he and Westbrook orchestrated this. If it's just playing with your friends ok cool, but I thought he came to LA to bring them championships not make Space Jams and create a ludicrously overpaid "big 3" that will be lucky to get past the second round against any team with any depth.

I can't say I understand it or what the motivations are/were. I could see different scenarios that were being played simultaneously but not knowing what was true and what was simply smoke who knows?

 

[whozit]

I think it was more that the Lakers were playing Harrel. All indications are that he opted in so he could be traded to the Kings(because of Rico Hines). As soon as he opted in, the Lakers switched up and made the trade with Washington. The Lakers pissed off a lot of people with this move.

I don't care where people are on the totem pole, nobody should be treated like this.

 

[kb02]

I don't care where people are on the totem pole, nobody should be treated like this.

Pelinka.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I can't say I understand it or what the motivations are/were. I could see different scenarios that were being played simultaneously but not knowing what was true and what was simply smoke who knows?

I think @Padrino got it right about LeBron - he's lucked into a few shooters because it was all his team could sign but once he started actually bringing aboard aging names and the league started paying huge premiums for guys who just shoot he's really struggled. Have to wonder how the Lakers would have fared in 2020 without a long break midseason before the covid bubble protocols went into place.

 

[D13]

I think Monte has shown a talent for bringing in guys underappreciated. Terrence Davis, Metu, Damian Jones, Louis King moves I really like... Heck, I even like Delon and Mo Harkless. That's the analytics side of him.

What I don't think Monte has is any "Salesman" in him. He doesn't come off as a very smooth or slick negotiator type. Seems timid and nervous. I don't think I'd want him sitting next to me in the car dealership.

 

[SacTownKid]

I think Monte has shown a talent for bringing in guys underappreciated. Terrence Davis, Metu, Damian Jones, Louis King moves I really like... Heck, I even like Delon and Mo Harkless. That's the analytics side of him.

What I don't think Monte has is any "Salesman" in him. He doesn't come off as a very smooth or slick negotiator type. Seems timid and nervous. I don't think I'd want him sitting next to me in the car dealership.

I think part of him being as cautious as he is so far has to do with Vivek. Vlade came in guns blazing and I think that freaked him out. Vlade gave no F's. Borderline kid in a candy store. The both of them however have had serious problems watching some of the pieces they've brought in be misused or elevated at times that might cost the franchise more money or that player.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

He doesn't come off as a very smooth or slick negotiator type. Seems timid and nervous.

You've sat across him at the negotiating table?

I'd argue he's been decisive, with the possible exception of the TT deal, he hasn't shipped talent for lowball offers, and he has been decisive when he saw something he sees as value/complementary to the team he is building (clear defensive focus). He was quick to cut bait with Bogi after the MIL deal fell through as well, I know some see this as weakness while others see this as a sign of resolution and strength. Count me in the latter.

 

[D13]

You've sat across him at the negotiating table?

I'd argue he's been decisive, with the possible exception of the TT deal, he hasn't shipped talent for lowball offers, and he has been decisive when he saw something he sees as value/complementary to the team he is building (clear defensive focus). He was quick to cut bait with Bogi after the MIL deal fell through as well, I know some see this as weakness while others see this as a sign of resolution and strength. Count me in the latter.

It's a just vibe, opinion, observance, impression coming from someone who has seen the same media that you might interpret he is a lion. Maybe the dude is just scared to death in front of cameras or being interviewed. A lion in sheep's clothing?

Pat Riley is a lion. I see Monte as more a gazelle.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

It's a just vibe, opinion, observance, impression coming from someone who has seen the same media that you might interpret he is a lion. Maybe the dude is just scared to death in front of cameras or being interviewed. A lion in sheep's clothing?

Pat Riley is a lion. I see Monte as more a gazelle.

I don't watch him do pressers and tbh I am not sure I could pick him out of a police lineup. I do think these are related but very different skills.

 

[kingsboi]

It should be noted that Lebron has never been terribly successful at armchair GM'ing the franchises for whom he's played. Since leaving Cleveland (the first time around), he's been good at finding ways to play with other high-wattage talents. But his input rarely has aided his teams in building balanced rosters. He actually hasn't played with that many great shooters throughout his entire career, despite the fact that spacing the floor around Lebron is the simplest way to unlock almost all of his once-in-a-generation gifts as the best basketball player in the world. He played with Ray Allen for one season. He played with Kyle Korver for one-and-a-half seasons. He played with Kyrie Irving for three. I can't think of many other 40%+ shooters from deep that saw significant court time with Lebron over the years. It just hasn't been valued enough by either he or the franchises for whom he's played.

Damon Jones for 3 seasons while not 40+ he was 39%. Daniel Gibson career 40% 3 point shooter in seven seasons.

 

[chief bromden]

So are we all just pretending that Vivek and Joe Dumars aren't involved in any of the personnel decisions at all?

 

[Tetsujin]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CSFQifapNbP/?utm_medium=copy_link


Doesn’t seem very paralyzed by analysis in this one

 

[kb02]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CSFQifapNbP/?utm_medium=copy_link


Doesn’t seem very paralyzed by analysis in this one

Have you seen a draft day vid of an FO not celebrating and acting all decisive? I'm sure there's a Stauskas or Throb or Benny Mac draft day vid somewhere of the FO celebrating.

 

[sactowndog]

You've sat across him at the negotiating table?

I'd argue he's been decisive, with the possible exception of the TT deal, he hasn't shipped talent for lowball offers, and he has been decisive when he saw something he sees as value/complementary to the team he is building (clear defensive focus). He was quick to cut bait with Bogi after the MIL deal fell through as well, I know some see this as weakness while others see this as a sign of resolution and strength. Count me in the latter.

just to be clear.

The issue was not that he “cut bait”. Given our number of guards it was understandable though I would have preferred to move Buddy. The issue was more the offer was very predictable and he failed to get at a minimum the 17M trade exception which would have cost Atlanta nothing.

why does that matter? Because with that trade exception we might have been able to get Favors and a 1st from Utah. Both of whom would have been useful for us. Instead Utah made the trade with another team that didn’t have to send anything back.

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1422612999613808642

 

[pdxKingsFan]

just to be clear.

The issue was not that he “cut bait”. Given our number of guards it was understandable though I would have preferred to move Buddy. The issue was more the offer was very predictable and he failed to get at a minimum the 17M trade exception which would have cost Atlanta nothing.

why does that matter? Because with that trade exception we might have been able to get Favors and a 1st from Utah. Both of whom would have been useful for us. Instead Utah made the trade with another team that didn’t have to send anything back.

You keep saying this but they wanted us to take a 12m dollar contract back (Tony Snell). We had no shortage of expiring contracts last year.

 

[sactowndog]

You keep saying this but they wanted us to take a 12m dollar contract back (Tony Snell). We had no shortage of expiring contracts last year.

right at worst we do a sign and trade and get only a trade exception back. Since that would cost Atlanta nothing and the would avoid putting in the onerous trade kicker there was no reason they wouldn’t do it.

 

[Telemachus]

right at worst we do a sign and trade and get only a trade exception back. Since that would cost Atlanta nothing and the would avoid putting in the onerous trade kicker there was no reason they wouldn’t do it.

You are making assumptions. The only reason for Atlanta to do that would be to possibly help the Kings in the future. Why would they do that? I have found most teams and businesses don't do something that does bring some benefit to themselves. Atlanta wouldn't have gotten anything out of such a trade, so why do it?

 

[pdxKingsFan]

right at worst we do a sign and trade and get only a trade exception back. Since that would cost Atlanta nothing and the would avoid putting in the onerous trade kicker there was no reason they wouldn’t do it.

Not taking on Snell kept us under the cap for the rest of FA and most of the season we hovered on the cap line. We didn't need a 5 million trade exception and we certainly didn't need Tony Snell.

 

[sactowndog]

You are making assumptions. The only reason for Atlanta to do that would be to possibly help the Kings in the future. Why would they do that? I have found most teams and businesses don't do something that does bring some benefit to themselves. Atlanta wouldn't have gotten anything out of such a trade, so why do it?

I’m not making assumptions at all. They had to include trade kickers and poison pills in the offer sheet they could have avoided with a sign and trade into their cap space. No team in the NBA would tie their own hands unnecessarily.

 

[ESP47]

Not taking on Snell kept us under the cap for the rest of FA and most of the season we hovered on the cap line. We didn't need a 5 million trade exception and we certainly didn't need Tony Snell.

But Tony Snell has shot 100% from the free throw line for 2 years straight

 

[sactowndog]

Not taking on Snell kept us under the cap for the rest of FA and most of the season we hovered on the cap line. We didn't need a 5 million trade exception and we certainly didn't need Tony Snell.

taking Snell was not a requirement to get a 17M trade exception.

 

[Telemachus]

I’m not making assumptions at all. They had to include trade kickers and poison pills in the offer sheet they could have avoided with a sign and trade into their cap space. No team in the NBA would tie their own hands unnecessarily.

What makes you think those wouldn't still be included? Players often like assurances that they won't be traded to a team they don't want to play for. My point being, there is more than one reason to put those into a contract. Your assuming the team put those there to keep the Kings from matching, but it could justas easily be the player so he doesn't end up on a bad team.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

taking Snell was not a requirement to get a 17M trade exception.

I'm sorry, I was talking about the offer on the table not the one you have decided we didn't make.

 

[sactowndog]

What makes you think those wouldn't still be included? Players often like assurances that they won't be traded to a team they don't want to play for. My point being, there is more than one reason to put those into a contract. Your assuming the team put those there to keep the Kings from matching, but it could justas easily be the player so he doesn't end up on a bad team.

Bogi wanted to get paid. He was going to Atlanta regardless. He isn’t going to scuttle a 17M a year deal over a trade kicker.