A Stats Thread: What the Numbers Say About Rondo and Gay

[hrdboild]

Watching the Golden State v. Portland game yesterday... I would probably be out of here if we had Lillard as our PG. Sure he scores a lot of points, but he's an out of control ballhog. That's not the future of basketball it's an embarrassment to the team game. Passing the ball will never be obsolete. Curry has an unbelievable skillset which is why he's got back to back MVP awards but he also doesn't ignore his teammates. People who say a passing PG can't succeed in the changing game are just revealing their own biases. If you've ever coached basketball you'd know that the player who sets the screen and the player who passes the ball are just as important as the player who takes the shot. Guys like Curry who can go one on one and still dominate are one in a million. If you can't win without one of those players than you have no business being a coach at the NBA level or any other level.

 

[ESP47]

KAT is going to be better than Cousins in 2 years... that's scary for how good he's going to become.

Numbers don't tell you the entire story. Teams sag and are willing to give him open 3s at the expense of doubling Cousins and everybody else. No one respects his shooting nor scoring. I don't think you can argue that Rondo is a better shooter than Wall/Westbrook... I mean, look at his ft%...

He would not be the best PG even if he had good defense. Not even close. His offensive limitations don't work in today's NBA. Almost everyone in the top 10 of PGs today are scorers. That's just how the league has changed.

2008 Rondo would not be considered a top 5 PG today. Curry, Paul, Westbrook, Lillard, Wall, and Lowry would be above. PGs have different values now.

Agree with you on KAT. That kid is legit.

From now on if Rondo can hit 3's at the clip he did this year, teams will have to respect his shooting from here on out. If he's on the Kings, that means more looks inside for Cousins. Rondo's 3 point shooting was a very important part of our offense this year.

I never said he would be the best PG. The importance of it all depends on how your team is built. Doesn't matter how your team is built if you have well rounded guys like the first three that you mentioned. Our team doesn't have a SG that can pass. The shoot first PG's who average around 6 assists a game normally have a SG next to them who can handle the ball and average around 4 assists. This team doesn't have that luxury at the moment so a guy like Rondo becomes invaluable on the offensive end.

 

[LA King Fan II]

I like Collision and Rondo. However...

I don't think Collision is a strong enough starting point guard and Rondo would only be okay with a very good 2 guard and /or an improved small forward over Gay. Keeping him just because Cousins wuvs him isn't enough, especially if he's preaching to Cuz an "us two against the world" mentality in a five man sport.

As I mentioned in another post I'd let Rondo walk and trade Gay, Collison and the pick to bulls for Mcdermott and Butler. Sign Conley or Teague, Curry, Beals, Barnes or Bazemore

Conley/Teague and Curry
Butler (Beals)
McDermott (+ Barnes/Bazemore)
WCS
Cousins

Yes I would prefer Teague to Rondo and McDermott to Gay.

 

[lawlman91]

Numbers don't tell you the entire story. Teams sag and are willing to give him open 3s at the expense of doubling Cousins and everybody else. No one respects his shooting nor scoring. I don't think you can argue that Rondo is a better shooter than Wall/Westbrook... I mean, look at his ft%...

Unfortunately this is what I'm seeing a lot of. No wonder Cousins gets stripped all the time on drives from the 3pt line, and why he needs to be at the 3pt line in the first place.

For the PG slot I would let Rondo walk, keep Collison, pay for Curry, trade down and then draft Denzel Valentine.

 

[Bricklayer]

Woh, dude - I wouldn't get carried away. We have not yet proven anything of the sort...

You made very good points about the duo of DC & DMC doing better statistically (in terms of on/off Plus-Minus) than the duo of Rondo & DMC.

That is still miles away from proving ANYTHING statistically (just as Brick's initial stat-related observation was in no way proof of anything):

1. The small difference in +/- you noted between the 2 duos would be far from significant, I presume (and none of us has so far attempted to run a significance check).

2. Some of the 4 samples (minutes on and off for both 2-man lineups) were quite small in size, and the samples varied wildly in size, too. For instance, the minutes sample of DC & DMC together on court, without Rondo in the lineup (i.e. DC plays PG) - is actually SO small, and so negligent in comparison to the other 3, that it should never be used at all...

3. Some other variables may have been skewing the picture.
I don't even have to suggest what they may be, as I'm not the one who has to carry the burden of proof, but I may as well mention a few examples:
First, what if the heavy presence of Rudy Gay (heavy in terms of minutes) in the lineups featuring Rondo+DMC had a bad impact on the team's D and fg%, resulting in a drop of our +/-, while in the lineups featuring DC+DMC we had Casspi and Acy in SF, and their grit and 3 point shooting were the factor that tipped the scales in favor of these lineups?
Second - remember Karl's reluctance to give WCS significant minutes earlier in the season? Well, that was exactly the time when Collison was out and Rondo had to play as a single PG. Could it have been that the lack of Willie's great D has painted those long minutes of Rondo+DMC together in darker hues?
And at that same early period - perhaps the very fact that Rondo had to play the full 48 minutes in some games (much of those minutes with DMC) made his production worse?

So... While you certainly casted a well-put shadow of doubt on Brick's argument,
you have not yet proven him neither right nor wrong. Can we agree on that?

nbawowy has the potential to actually answer most of those questions given sufficient work. time is always an issue, but I will see if I want to put it in later. I can take minutes out of the equation, and just compare any combination of players, on and off.

 

[Glenn]

Since you are arguing for letting Rondo walk the hole is at PG. who do you propose to fill the PG roles for the Kings?

Collison and Curry plus another. With incredible luck, Dunn. Maybe by jumping into the middle of this chatter I am missing something.

 

[Ron]

nbawowy has the potential to actually answer most of those questions given sufficient work. time is always an issue, but I will see if I want to put it in later. I can take minutes out of the equation, and just compare any combination of players, on and off.

I doubt if the extra work will get you any closer to settling this dispute/discussion...

Lineups' data is simply not statistically significant (rarely ever is), due to small sample sizes.

If you try to account for intervening variables, such as other players, you only make it worse, by breaking up the playing time to ever smaller and smaller samples.

 

[KingMilz]

Watching the Golden State v. Portland game yesterday... I would probably be out of here if we had Lillard as our PG. Sure he scores a lot of points, but he's an out of control ballhog. That's not the future of basketball it's an embarrassment to the team game.

Hold up how is what Lillard is doing different to what Cousins is currently doing for the Kings (aside from making the playoffs)? Who is he meant to pass to when other than CJ no one else can create a shot on that team and none of them aside from Plumlee as high IQ type players...I would take Lillard as our PG every single day of the week. Aminu and Harkless are getting wide open looks cause of Lillard, Aminu had the best regular season and playoffs of his career because teams trap Lillard all the team and he's passing to him wide open.

 

[twslam07]

Since you are arguing for letting Rondo walk the hole is at PG. who do you propose to fill the PG roles for the Kings?

The hole is not at starting PG. Collison is already there. The hole would be at backup PG where you can fill it by drafting Dunn or signing Chalmers, N. Cole, or Curry.

 

[KingsFanGER]

The hole is not at starting PG. Collison is already there. The hole would be at backup PG where you can fill it by drafting Dunn or signing Chalmers, N. Cole, or Curry.

Is DC really a starting PG in this league?
I honestly can't think of a starting PG on a decent team, that I as a GM would replace with DC. DC is better than Calderon or Felton, but outside of these guys, you might want to help me out.
I don't want Rondo to stay on a huge deal, because I'm tired of his shortcomings, but I don't think DC is the answer moving forward.

 

[macadocious]

This may all be irrelevant. Joerger said this morning on KHTK that Darren needs to prove he's a starter in this league or something to that effect.

He then followed up with needs of athletic shooting wings.

Reading between the lines the FA money will be going to 2s and 3s not a PG.

 

[twslam07]

Is DC really a starting PG in this league?
I honestly can't think of a starting PG on a decent team, that I as a GM would replace with DC. DC is better than Calderon or Felton, but outside of these guys, you might want to help me out.
I don't want Rondo to stay on a huge deal, because I'm tired of his shortcomings, but I don't think DC is the answer moving forward.

It's not so much about proving that Collison is a starting PG as much as it is about proving that he is a better starting PG than Rondo which is what the stats showed last year.

Like I've mentioned before, there are a ton of solid FA PGs in the following offseason. Why lock up Rondo who is not even better than Collison when you can upgrade other positions and keep the PG contribution at a similar level to last year? Then the following year, we can decide if we want to keep Collison as the starter or find a "starting" PG.

 

[KingsFanGER]

It's not so much about proving that Collison is a starting PG as much as it is about proving that he is a better starting PG than Rondo which is what the stats showed last year.

Like I've mentioned before, there are a ton of solid FA PGs in the following offseason. Why lock up Rondo who is not even better than Collison when you can upgrade other positions and keep the PG contribution at a similar level to last year? Then the following year, we can decide if we want to keep Collison as the starter or find a "starting" PG.

Yes I followed your discussion. I won't take any side in that, because lineup stats and defensive metrics always look a bit artificial to me.

The PG contribution is way different with DC as a replacement for Rondo. Our whole playstyle changes. It comes down, if you believe wether this is a good thing or not. I think it might be a good thing, if we can upgrade our roster as a whole.
I singled out your one post, without keeping the context in mind. Sorry about that.

 

[twslam07]

Yes I followed your discussion. I won't take any side in that, because lineup stats and defensive metrics always look a bit artificial to me.

The PG contribution is way different with DC as a replacement for Rondo. Our whole playstyle changes. It comes down, if you believe wether this is a good thing or not. I think it might be a good thing, if we can upgrade our roster as a whole.
I singled out your one post, without keeping the context in mind. Sorry about that.

The contribution will be different, but I think it will be better.

Rondo played 35 MPG, that means that Collison was only playing 13 of his minutes at PG. Collison plays better at PG than he does at SG, so if you let Rondo walk and sign a good SG, you are replacing Collison's less effective SG minutes with a player who is more effecitve at SG while replacing Rondo's PG minutes with a player who is more effective at PG. It's a win at both PG & SG if you let Rondo walk and sign a good SG.

If you resign Rondo, the majority of your PG minutes will be less effective and you will be resorted to playing Collison (and possibly a SG you just signed) out of position making them less effective.

 

[LPKingsFan]

If you resign Rondo, the majority of your PG minutes will be less effective and you will be resorted to playing Collison (and possibly a SG you just signed) out of position making them less effective.

I think Collison is a very solid PG. But, for the reason you point out, if Rondo is retained then Collison should be traded.

One problem with the team as it was constructed this season was the redundant depth. The three best bench players (Collison, Casspi, and Kofous) play the same position as the three best starters. Casspi is a little more flexible, but if you are playing Collison and Koufos the minutes they deserve, then you end up needing to play the awkward pairings of Rondo-Collison and Cousins-Koufos for meaningful amounts of time.

 

[HndsmCelt]

Is DC really a starting PG in this league?
I honestly can't think of a starting PG on a decent team, that I as a GM would replace with DC. DC is better than Calderon or Felton, but outside of these guys, you might want to help me out.
I don't want Rondo to stay on a huge deal, because I'm tired of his shortcomings, but I don't think DC is the answer moving forward.

No DC is NOT a starting PG in the mold of pretty much any current teams make up. BUT if you think about guys like Derick Fisher and John Paxson who really just brought the ball up then kicked it to other guys that initiated the offense then went in motion like an SG, DC CAN do this as well or better than most guys in the league. If the idea is to run the offense through DMC and/or Rudy going inside out then starting DC could make sense espcially when we have him on the cheap and need to bring in a sure thing at the 2.

 

[KingsFanGER]

No DC is NOT a starting PG in the mold of pretty much any current teams make up. BUT if you think about guys like Derick Fisher and John Paxson who really just brought the ball up then kicked it to other guys that initiated the offense then went in motion like an SG, DC CAN do this as well or better than most guys in the league. If the idea is to run the offense through DMC and/or Rudy going inside out then starting DC could make sense espcially when we have him on the cheap and need to bring in a sure thing at the 2.

This thread is not about how the Kings offense should be run and I argued about that point time and time again.
I don't believe our offense can or should be run like you describe,because I think this puts us in a disadvantage when matched up with most NBA teams.
For reasoning regarding my reluctance advocating playing inside out see the countless posts I already dedicated to this debate.

Given his shortcomings I don't think DC is a starter moving forward. But like already mentioned we can always try to sign one of the PG FA coming up during the next 2 years.

 

[twslam07]

I think Collison is a very solid PG. But, for the reason you point out, if Rondo is retained then Collison should be traded.

One problem with the team as it was constructed this season was the redundant depth. The three best bench players (Collison, Casspi, and Kofous) play the same position as the three best starters. Casspi is a little more flexible, but if you are playing Collison and Koufos the minutes they deserve, then you end up needing to play the awkward pairings of Rondo-Collison and Cousins-Koufos for meaningful amounts of time.

Agree. If Rondo is resigned, then I think we should trade Collison.

However, a better starting PG can be had for $5 mil a year (Collison) vs. Rondo who will cost $12-$16 mil a year. Why would we not opt for the cheaper, better player and use that money to actually upgrade another position? The only valid argument I have seen on this board has been from @funkykingston . His argument is that Rondo may be willing to resign with us whereas the SGs that we would want to have start for us next year might have no interest, but as I pointed out then, this is not option A if you're Vlade.

 

[Amit149]

This thread is not about how the Kings offense should be run and I argued about that point time and time again.
I don't believe our offense can or should be run like you describe,because I think this puts us in a disadvantage when matched up with most NBA teams.
For reasoning regarding my reluctance advocating playing inside out see the countless posts I already dedicated to this debate.

Given his shortcomings I don't think DC is a starter moving forward. But like already mentioned we can always try to sign one of the PG FA coming up during the next 2 years.

I don't think that DC is one of the best starting PG's- but he is a capable one and I would much rather play him than spend most of our cap on Rondo. DC is OK, he is not going to hurt you (if you remember last year we had one of the best lineups statistically with him).

But I agree that he shouldn't be the guy going forward, that's why I think most people are banking on getting Dunn or Murray) in the draft to grow and replace him in time.
The tricky thing is the PG FA market is very limited and the only guy significantly better than DC is Conley and the chances of us getting him is slim (prove me wrong Joerger!), and we don't really have the trade assests necessary to make a move for a team's starting PG- the only guys I can see as trade targets are Teague and maybe Holiday.

 

[HndsmCelt]

This thread is not about how the Kings offense should be run and I argued about that point time and time again.
I don't believe our offense can or should be run like you describe,because I think this puts us in a disadvantage when matched up with most NBA teams.
For reasoning regarding my reluctance advocating playing inside out see the countless posts I already dedicated to this debate.

Given his shortcomings I don't think DC is a starter moving forward. But like already mentioned we can always try to sign one of the PG FA coming up during the next 2 years.

I understand that the original intent of this thread was to discuss the effectiveness of the Rondo/Cousins/Gay trio; the conversation has now headed into a discussion about if DC is or should be a starter assuming we do not bring back Rondo. I merely pointed out that IF the offense is designed to get the ball out of his hands early in the clock he will be a good fit. I neither endorsed inside out out play, the Triangle or any other offensive scheme. DJ says he wants to get a clearer idea of what the roster looks like before he comments and I certainly can't argue with that.

Personally I would love to see us somehow keep Rondo, but realistically I don't see how we do that AND bring in a solid starter at the 2. But at this point who knows. Now once we have a starting line up inked I'd be glad to speculate on offensive schemes, but that is not the teams biggest problem anyway; last years team could score the ball, the disaster was on the other side of the ball.

 

[twslam07]

This thread is not about how the Kings offense should be run and I argued about that point time and time again.
I don't believe our offense can or should be run like you describe,because I think this puts us in a disadvantage when matched up with most NBA teams.
For reasoning regarding my reluctance advocating playing inside out see the countless posts I already dedicated to this debate.

Given his shortcomings I don't think DC is a starter moving forward. But like already mentioned we can always try to sign one of the PG FA coming up during the next 2 years.

Two seasons ago, Collison/McLemore/Gay/Thompson/Cousins was one of the best lineups in the league. This was with Collison as the starting PG. Considering McLemore & Thompson were perceived as being worse than Collison, Gay, & Cousins, that means Collison was a top 3 player in a lineup that was one of the best in the league. He wasn't just a throw-in next to a Wade/James/Bosh combo.


So now what do we have? We still have those top 3 players (1 that is better today with the other 2 in their primes), we have a coach who will mirror Malone in a lot of ways defensively while probably being better on the offensive end, we have Cauley-Stein replacing Thompson, and we have cap space to upgrade our starting SG (Bazemore, Crabbe, C. Lee, Fournier). That sounds like a recipe for success to me.


With a coach preaching defense and a coach that will probably motivate his players to play as hard as Malone did, why not build from that original 3 man combo? If Rondo proved he was much better than Collison, I would totally understand the logic behind retaining him and moving forward with Rondo/Gay/Cauley-Stein/Cousins, but that's not what happened...

 

[randymoss1881]

This may all be irrelevant. Joerger said this morning on KHTK that Darren needs to prove he's a starter in this league or something to that effect.

He then followed up with needs of athletic shooting wings.

Reading between the lines the FA money will be going to 2s and 3s not a PG.

Than this means Rondo won't be back cause retaining him means no cap space. Also if he said that I still like the idea of throwing 14-17mill at Bazemore signing Barnes 3-6mill than trading Gay for Ryan Anderson. 2 athletic wings who can shoot and an elite shooting PF and that floor spacing for DMC

 

[KingsFanGER]

I understand that the original intent of this thread was to discuss the effectiveness of the Rondo/Cousins/Gay trio; the conversation has now headed into a discussion about if DC is or should be a starter assuming we do not bring back Rondo. I merely pointed out that IF the offense is designed to get the ball out of his hands early in the clock he will be a good fit. I neither endorsed inside out out play, the Triangle or any other offensive scheme. DJ says he wants to get a clearer idea of what the roster looks like before he comments and I certainly can't argue with that.

Personally I would love to see us somehow keep Rondo, but realistically I don't see how we do that AND bring in a solid starter at the 2. But at this point who knows. Now once we have a starting line up inked I'd be glad to speculate on offensive schemes, but that is not the teams biggest problem anyway; last years team could score the ball, the disaster was on the other side of the ball.

You are right. It feels unusual, but I'm pretty confident right now, that Joerger will find a solid offensive scheme for our Kings. And we agree on the defensive part.

 

[peacelate]

The difference between Darren and Rondo is minimal. The money hsould be spent finding a quality SG. That's where the black hole is.

The team went 9-6 with DC as a starting PG right?

 

[ockingsfan]

The PIVOTAL decision for Vlade this summer is whether to re-sign Rondo or let him walk.

I personally would like to see Rondo back, but at a reasonable price. If Rondo re-signs for say $13-$15mil for 3 or 4 years, then great, bring him back.

If Rondo demands $16-20 mil then I let him walk and roll with Darren Collison and re-sign Seth Curry.

Vlade needs a decision from Rondo ASAP and move on from there.

The Kings number one priority should be getting a reliable 3 and D shooting guard this summer, either Rondo or DC at starting point guard should be good.

 

[KingsFanGER]

Two seasons ago, Collison/McLemore/Gay/Thompson/Cousins was one of the best lineups in the league. This was with Collison as the starting PG. Considering McLemore & Thompson were perceived as being worse than Collison, Gay, & Cousins, that means Collison was a top 3 player in a lineup that was one of the best in the league. He wasn't just a throw-in next to a Wade/James/Bosh combo.


So now what do we have? We still have those top 3 players (1 that is better today with the other 2 in their primes), we have a coach who will mirror Malone in a lot of ways defensively while probably being better on the offensive end, we have Cauley-Stein replacing Thompson, and we have cap space to upgrade our starting SG (Bazemore, Crabbe, C. Lee, Fournier). That sounds like a recipe for success to me.


With a coach preaching defense and a coach that will probably motivate his players to play as hard as Malone did, why not build from that original 3 man combo? If Rondo proved he was much better than Collison, I would totally understand the logic behind retaining him and moving forward with Rondo/Gay/Cauley-Stein/Cousins, but that's not what happened...

Two years ago the Kings offensive scheme was not very good (it was pretty much all DMC. Once he went down it was over). We both don't know where the run of Malone would have ended that season.
Maybe teams would have figured out a way to stop our bully ball. Maybe the freethrow rate wouldn't have been sustainable (see James Harden in the playoffs).
Now granted - Joerger might be better than Malone on the offensive end, but I don't think Malone was a bad coach. And with more and more teams going smaller for extended periods things will get even more difficult.
And I couldn't care less about Rondo right now.
All I wanted to add to the discussion is, that I don't think DC is a great starting PG moving forward.
He is a great worker, a decent scorer (although he lacks a floater), a decent defender for his size and built, but sadly not a guy you can run your offense through from the outside. And I'm not a believer in an offense run by DMC and Gay. Too inefficient, too many TO's, too many forced shots and not nearly enough ball movement and ball sharing.
Joerger turned Conley from a sidekick to Gasol and Zbo to the guy running the team. Maybe he can coach DC into a similar role, but so far I doubt that.

 

[IfAt1st]

Why would signing Rondo take most of our cap space?

Rondo made $10 mill this year - let's say he signs for $14 - that's only $4 mill more.

I'm pretty sure the cap is going up much more than $4 million......

 

[hrdboild]

Why would signing Rondo take most of our cap space?

Rondo made $10 mill this year - let's say he signs for $14 - that's only $4 mill more.

I'm pretty sure the cap is going up much more than $4 million......

The salary cap issue is just a deflection. When people write that we can't re-sign Rondo without using up all our cap space it's because they don't want Rondo back anyway. We certainly can re-sign Rondo and add a top free agent if we move a couple other pieces around. I don't think Vlade wants the exact same team back next year anyway, there's going to be some changes made and I don't see any negative value contracts on our payroll this year. If Vlade decides that he's willing to trade Collison, McLemore, Belinelli, Gay, or Koufos I'm sure we'll be able to find some willing trade partners. Same goes for Cousins, Cauley-Stein, and Casspi of course but I would consider them untouchable.

 

[Glenn]

Why would signing Rondo take most of our cap space?

Rondo made $10 mill this year - let's say he signs for $14 - that's only $4 mill more.

I'm pretty sure the cap is going up much more than $4 million......

He obviously would not take up the cap space if we use your numbers.

 

[funkykingston]

Right now the Kings have $60,424,376 in definite contracts for next season.

Acy & Curry have already opted out. Butler and Anderson still have player options that would total $2,690,782. Dukan has a non-guaranteed contract which can be waived if needed.

That means if Butler and Anderson don't opt out the Kings will have $63,115,158 in contracts for next season.

Because Wayne Ellington was waived under the stretch provision, he'll cost the Kings $882,630 in cap room but this (I believe) is the last year he will.

That makes it $63,997,788 or JUST under $64 million in contracts.

Then there's a cap hold for the Kings rookie. Assuming they stay in the 8th slot and keep their pick, there's a cap hold at 100% of the rookie scale or $2,451,200

So the grand total is $66,448.988 or so

With the cap at $92 million that means the Kings go into the offseason with $25.5 million in cap room.

It's true that both Rondo and Moreland have cap holds ($11.4 million and $1.2 million respectively) but those are pretty irrelevant. If the Kings re-sign Rondo then the cap hold doesn't mean anything and if they go in a different direction and don't re-sign him then it doesn't mean anything.

So while technically the Kings will start the offseason with just under $13 million in cap room, it's the $25.5 million that really matters.

So re-signing Rondo (at say $15 million) would still leave the Kings with $10 million but that's not a ton in this summer of skyrocketing salaries.

But there are plenty of moves the Kings could make to open up more caproom if so desired.

So yes, absent of other moves, re-upping Rondo would handcuff Vlade in terms of signing other impact free agents but we'll have to see how the summer plays out.