A look at Hawes competition:

[bajaden]

There have been questions about Hawes rebounding ability in the future. Some think that with time, he will become a decent to good rebounder, while others believe that you come into the league as good rebounder or your never going to be very good in that area. I decided to go and have a look at the league. I compiled a list of the starting center for each team and his stats the first five years in the league.
The list is long so it will take some time study it. My first surprise was how many teams have center by committee, so I just made an educated guess who the starter was by the minutes played. I have listed the average minutes played next to the yearly rebound averages.

Team Player 1st yr. 2nd yr. 3rd yr. 4th yr. 5th yr.

Wash.-B. Haywood- (20)5.2 (24)5.0 (19)5.0 (27)6.8 (24)5.9

Knicks- E. Curry- (16)3.8 (19)4.4 (30)6.2 (29)5.4 (26)6.0

Hawks- A. Holford- (35)9.7

76"s- S. Dalembert- (5)2.0 (27)7.6 (25)7.5 (27)8.2 (31)8.9

Celtics- K. Perkins- (4)1.4 (9)2.9 (20)5.9 (22)5.2 (25)6.1

Bobcats-N.Mohammed-(5)1.4 (7)1.8 (7)1.8 (26)9.0 (26)7.9

Bulls- Y. Noah- (21)5.6

Cav's-Z. LLgauskas- (29)8.8 (34)8.8 (26)6.7 (21)5.4 (26)7.9

Pistons-J. Maxiell- (6)1.1 (14)2.8 (21)5.3

Pacers-J. Foster- (5)1.7 (16)5.5 (22)6.8 (10)3.6 (24)7.4

Heat-M. Blount- (17)3.6 (9)1.9 (19)4.6 (16)3.4 (29)7.2

Bucks-A. Bogut- (29)7.0 (34)8.9 (35)9.7

Nets- N. Krstic- (26)5.4 (31)6.4 (33)6.8 (18)5.4

Magic-D. Howard- (36)10.0 (37)12.5 (37)12.3 (38)14.3

Raptors-C. Bosh- (34)7.4 (37)8.9 (39)9.2 (39)10.7 (37)8.9

Mav's- E. Dampier- (15)4.1 (32)8.7 (28)7.6 (24)6.4 (24)5.8

Nuggets-M. Camby- (30)6.3 (32)7.4 (21)5.5 (26)7.8 (34)11.5

Warriors-A. Biedrins- (13)3.9 (15)4.2 (29)9.3 (27)9.7

Rockets-Y. Ming- (29)8.2 (33)9.0 (31)8.4 (34)10.2 (34)9.4

LAC- C. Kaman- (23)5.6 (26)6.7 (33)9.6 (29)7.8 (37)12.7

Grizzlies-K. Brown- (14)3.5 (22)5.3 (30)7.4 (22)4.9 (28)6.6

Minn.-A Jefferson- (15)4.4 (18)5.1 (34)11.0 (36)11.1

Hornets-T. Chandler- (20)4.8 (24)6.9 (22)7.7 (27)9.7 (27)9.0

Suns- S. O'Neal- (38)13.9 (40)13.2 (37)11.4 (36)11.0 (38)12.6

Portland-L. Aldridge- (22)5.0 (35)7.6

Spurs- T. Duncan- (39)11.9 (39)11.4 (39)12.4 (39)12.2 (41)12.7

Seatlle-N. Collison- (17)4.6 (22)5.6 (29)8.1 (28)9.3

Jazz- M. Okur- (19)4.7 (22)5.9 (28)7.5 (36)9.1 (33)7.2

Kings-B. Miller- (12)3.1 (17)5.3 (25)7.4 (29)8.4 (31)7.9

And for fun..

Ben Wallace- (5)1.7 (17)4.8 (27)8.4 (24)8.2 (34)13.2


You'll notice very few double digit rebounders at the center position. Those that came into the league rebounding, continued to do so. Some of those that didn't, got better to good, and some remained just average to bad. On the whole, the center position around the league is below par in my opinion with just a few standouts. It wouldn't take much to be a star at that position today. Howard looks like superman. As you can see, there aren't many of him around.

 

[Kingster]

Thanks for the post. To me, it means that the bar for Hawes to be an average rebounding center is not all that high. Also, it shows that just as with other things, you can improve your rebounding over time. Hawes is a big boned kid - there is plenty of room for him to get stronger and maintain position, as well as root others out of their position for rebounding. Lastly, one thing rebounding stats don't show is how many rebounds a player allows the opposing team players to get in offensive rebounds - i.e. it doesn't show whether he is blocking out well. They don't have such a stat as net rebounds. For Hawes, blocking out is going to be very important, and I think with experience he is going to exert much more discretion when to go for a blocked shot and then be out of position for the defensive rebound versus play positional defense and stay on the floor, which will then allow him to more easily block out and get a rebound. He's very smart, so I don't think it's going to take him very long to figure it out. My prediction: In Year 3, if he is the starter (and Miller is gone), he'll average about 8 rebs a game.

 

[fnordius]

Lastly, one thing rebounding stats don't show is how many rebounds a player allows the opposing team players to get in offensive rebounds - i.e. it doesn't show whether he is blocking out well. They don't have such a stat as net rebounds.

Offensive rebounds allowed is close, assuming that the bigs are the ones to get the credit/blame. We're currently in 25th place in that stat, so there's plenty of room for improvement.

 

[Entity]

Before I read your final comment I was like damn only 3 or 4 centers average over 10 boards and Brad gets 9.5. I am not sure how Hawes is going to be.


I encourage all of you listen to the interview with Theus in the RSS feeds. He states that rebounding is their biggest weakness and something that will be addressed. He mentioned that defense and rebounding are Hawes weakness and that he needs to work on that this summer.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Thanks for the post. To me, it means that the bar for Hawes to be an average rebounding center is not all that high. Also, it shows that just as with other things, you can improve your rebounding over time. Hawes is a big boned kid - there is plenty of room for him to get stronger and maintain position, as well as root others out of their position for rebounding. Lastly, one thing rebounding stats don't show is how many rebounds a player allows the opposing team players to get in offensive rebounds - i.e. it doesn't show whether he is blocking out well. They don't have such a stat as net rebounds. For Hawes, blocking out is going to be very important, and I think with experience he is going to exert much more discretion when to go for a blocked shot and then be out of position for the defensive rebound versus play positional defense and stay on the floor, which will then allow him to more easily block out and get a rebound. He's very smart, so I don't think it's going to take him very long to figure it out. My prediction: In Year 3, if he is the starter (and Miller is gone), he'll average about 8 rebs a game.

IF Hawes gets to eight rebounds, that'll be fine... but, as I can only judge based on his one year in college and his rookie season in the NBA, that seems like a fairly big "if" at this particular point in time.

The only question of import to me is: can a championship team be built around a center that seems to be likely to average 6 rebounds a game once he matures? My magic 8-ball says no. And, since the OP classifies Tim Duncan as a center, the last team to win a championship with a center that didn't average at least nine rebounds a game was the Bulls, and they had some guy... Michael something-or-other...

The last team before that? Well, let's just say that I gave up looking when I got into the sixties...

 

[bajaden]

Offensive rebounds allowed is close, assuming that the bigs are the ones to get the credit/blame. We're currently in 25th place in that stat, so there's plenty of room for improvement.

We're in agreement on the need for improvement. When I looked around the league, it became apparent that 7 to 8 rebounds was decent to good for todays center position, and anything above that and your in the top 10. When you consider that Jefferson and Howard are really prototypical PF's being forced to play center, as is Holford, 9 rebounds a game looks good. Wilt is probably turning over in his grave. He might even lead the league in rebounding while dead.

 

[Bricklayer]

PER MINUTE please.

Total nubers are worthless with varied minutes. Do it myself, but am busy.

 

[Jer]

Hawes rebounded poorly in college too though and he doesn't really show that killer desire that he needs to grab every rebound. He needs to box out aggressively, react well and get physical, and he doesn't do any of that right now. Some of this stuff you can't teach.

 

[bajaden]

PER MINUTE please.

Total nubers are worthless with varied minutes. Do it myself, but am busy.

Their not worthless when all I was doing was a general overlook of the league. The post was long enough as it was, and I didn't want to write a book. Take it for what it was, nothing more, nothing less. As a general sampling, I thought it was somewhat enlightning. I didn't realize that the rebounding averages were as bad as they were. Also, in fairness to some of the players with a longer history than five years, some of their averages improved later in their careers. Ben Wallace being one of those.

 

[AyeCarly]

What you can't teach is size, strength and athletic ability. The best have all three and 8 of the last 9 NBA championships. All Howard needs to be on that level is a go-to move. And Oden will be the next monster based on similar physical characteristics and above average athletic ability. I didn't bother posting jumping reach. If you don't know that Howard can jump or has more athletic ability than other centers, then I don't know what to tell ya. And I figure the 8 of 9 championships shows Shaq and Timmy have or had some athletic ability.

Shaq - standing reach 9'8", wingspan 7'6", height 7'1", weight 325 lbs
Duncan - standing reach 9'4", wingspan 7'5", height 6'11", weight 260 lbs
Howard - standing reach 9'3", wingspan 7'4", height 6'11", weight 265 lbs
Oden - standing reach 9'4", wingspan 7'4", height 7'0", weight 250 lbs


Hawes - standing reach 9'1", wingspan 7'1", height 7'0", weight 245 lbs
Bosh - standing reach 9'1", wingspan 7'3", height 6'10", weight 230 lbs
Bogut - standing reach 9'2", wingspan 7'3", height 7'0", weight 260 lbs
Horford - standing reach 8'11", wingspan 7'0", height 6'10", weight 245 lbs

We shouldn't expect Hawes to be a rebounding monster. Expect him to be no better a rebounder than Bosh, Bogut or Horford, and that's a stretch. He doesn't have the abnormal size, strength nor athletic ability to dominate. Our players need to learn to put a body, an arm, or an asscheek or two on their man, that's the ONLY way to rebound better without a sure thing like an Oden or a Howard. Size does matter. Thats what she said.

 

[BawLa]

Hawes rebounded poorly in college too though and he doesn't really show that killer desire that he needs to grab every rebound. He needs to box out aggressively, react well and get physical, and he doesn't do any of that right now. Some of this stuff you can't teach.

Hawes not rebounding well in college is more indicative of him only being in college for one year, than it is indicative of his future career in rebounding. He was 19 when we drafted him?

The killer instinct should come from our PF IMO, or whomever we pair with Hawes.

He can't get physical until he gains more weight.


The fact that he is obviously underweight, and still manages to put up decent numbers when he gets starter type minutes in his rookie campaign and even with all of the other rebounding problems is surprising to me. As a starting Center this year: 7.6 rebs in 33.1 min/game. That equates to a 9.2 rebs/40 min. So all of these people who think that he will average 8 rebs in 2 or 3 years need to wake up. He has the potential to do it next year, and I think he will if he gets starter-type minutes.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/splits?playerId=3211

 

[bajaden]

Hawes not rebounding well in college is more indicative of him only being in college for one year, than it is indicative of his future career in rebounding. He was 19 when we drafted him?

The killer instinct should come from our PF IMO, or whomever we pair with Hawes.

He can't get physical until he gains more weight.


The fact that he is obviously underweight, and still manages to put up decent numbers when he gets starter type minutes in his rookie campaign and even with all of the other rebounding problems is surprising to me. As a starting Center this year: 7.6 rebs in 33.1 min/game. That equates to a 9.2 rebs/40 min. So all of these people who think that he will average 8 rebs in 2 or 3 years need to wake up. He has the potential to do it next year, and I think he will if he gets starter-type minutes.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/splits?playerId=3211

I agree with you. I could have given the rebounds for 48 min projection, but I think everyone can get the idea, that the best rebounders today are special athlete's, with good size for the most part. And they don't number in the thousands. I can see Hawes with more weight and better technic averaging 8 rebounds a game. Perhaps even 9. Its all up to him and how hard he wants to work. Our rebounding problems need to be solved by the PF position and through team rebounding. Moore may be a lovable guy with a lot of spirit, but a rebounding machine he isn't.
Another point is that I would love the offense to go through Hawes at some point, but out of the low post. Its difficult to be a great rebounder dishing out of the high post. It leaves you too far away from the basket, unless your running a pick and roll.

 

[Bricklayer]

Hawes not rebounding well in college is more indicative of him only being in college for one year, than it is indicative of his future career in rebounding. He was 19 when we drafted him?

No.

No.

NO.

People keep on trying to invent that as an excuse, but it does not fly. Good rebounders rebound from the moment they hit college. Oden rebounded at 19. Love rebounded at 19. Spencer did not. Its not an age thing. Spencer can improve -- at his age, there is always improvement. But him not rebounding at age 19 is not some trait that young guys have. Its a trait Spencer has/had.

 

[BawLa]

No.

No.

NO.

People keep on trying to invent that as an excuse, but it does not fly. Good rebounders rebound from the moment they hit college. Oden rebounded at 19. Love rebounded at 19. Spencer did not. Its not an age thing. Spencer can improve -- at his age, there is always improvement. But him not rebounding at age 19 is not some trait that young guys have. Its a trait Spencer has/had.

Comparing Oden/Love to Hawes just because they were all 19 is a bit short-sided. Oden is the biggest athletic freaks since D.Howard and Love weighs 265 and isn't even 20 years old. Both of those guys had special advantages that allowed them to be such prolific rebounders at such a young age.

When you come back down to reality, and you look at most of the PF's and C's in college, I see many examples of guys who rebound more in their sophomore year than they did in their freshman year.

Again, freshman rebounding statistics point out 2 things about a player...either they are physical freaks for their age or they got great fundamental training at the lower levels. With Oden and Love, I would say both.

Lets pick some players (bigs) that are projected to go in this year's draft that are not freshman and look at their rebounding progression in college.


Brook Lopez:
Freshman - 6.0 rebs/25.2 min = 9.5 rebs/40 min
Sophomore - 8.2 rebs/30.8 min = 10.6 rebs/40 min

JaVale McGee:
Fr. - 2.2 rebs/10.0 min = 8.8 rebs/40 min
So. - 7.3 rebs/27.3 min = 10.7 rebs/40 min

Darrell Arthur:
Fr. - 4.7 rebs/19.0 min = 9.9 rebs/40 min
So. - 6.3 rebs/24.7 min = 10.2 rebs/40 min

Jason Thompson:
Fr. - 7.4 rebs/27.7 min = 10.7 rebs/40 min
So. - 8.4 rebs/31.8 min = 10.6 rebs/40 min
Jr. - 10.1 rebs/34.1 min = 11.8 rebs/40 min
Sr. - 12.1 rebs/34.6 min = 14.0 rebs/40 min

Roy Hibbert:
Fr. - 3.5 rebs/15.8 min = 8.9 rebs/40 min
So. - 6.9 rebs/24.0 min = 11.5 rebs/40 min
Jr. - 6.9 rebs/26.4 min = 10.5 rebs/40 min
Sr. - 6.4 rebs/26.3 min = 9.7 rebs/40 min

Joey Dorsey:
Fr. - 6.0 rebs/15.1 min = 15.9 rebs/40 min
So. - 7.5 rebs/21.1 min = 14.2 rebs/40 min
Jr. - 9.4 rebs/25.2 min = 14.9 rebs/40 min
Sr. - 9.5 rebs/25.2 min = 15.1 rebs/40 min


Some of these guys are more consistent than others. But in virtually every case you have guys that rebound better in their 2nd year than they do in their freshman year, except for Joey Dorsey who came in at such a high level that he really didn't have much room to improve in that area.

Now back to Hawes. Hawes is (and was) a stick figure. He is so skinny that he gets pushed out of position with ease. If he gains some more weight, especially in his lower body, then he should see an increase in rebounding. If he learns how to get better position and box players out better, he should see an increase in rebounding. He will never be that guy that rebounds 15/game. It just won't happen. But to say that he is going to struggle to get 8 boards/game in 2 to 3 years is just silly IMO (I know you did not say this but I wouldn't be surprised if you felt that way, and the idea has been floating around here).

If Brad Miller, at the age of 32 nonetheless, can grab 9.5rebs/game then why is it so inconcievable that Hawes can do the same?

 

[uolj]

Comparing Oden/Love to Hawes just because they were all 19 is a bit short-sided. Oden is the biggest athletic freaks since D.Howard and Love weighs 265 and isn't even 20 years old. Both of those guys had special advantages that allowed them to be such prolific rebounders at such a young age.

But isn't the point that the reason they are good rebounders is because of those advantages that Hawes doesn't have and will never have?

Your list only shows one player that had significant improvement, which was Thompson. Doesn't that prove that it is likely that what you see in your freshman year is a good indication of what you're going to get?

It's not about what is conceivable, it is about what is likely.

 

[VF21]

Didn't Spencer play in the backcourt until college? I could swear I remembered hearing he played as a PG. That could explain the lack of comparative numbers for rebounds, since (unless I'm losing my mind and it's not the case at all) he didn't become a frontcourt player who should focus on things like rebounds until he hit college.

 

[uolj]

Per 48 minutes based on bajaden's originally posted numbers (assume major roundoff errors).

Italics means less than 10 mpg. Green means improvement from around Hawes' level, Red means not so much. Purple means better numbers from the start. Not listed... players who started at Hawes level but didn't improve and were thus not given minutes enough to make the list in the first place.

Team    Player        1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th 

Sac- S. Hawes-       [I]11.9[/I]

[COLOR="Red"]Wash.- B. Haywood[/COLOR]-   [B]12.5 10.0 12.6 12.1 11.8[/B]

[COLOR="Red"]Knicks- E. Curry[/COLOR]-    [B]11.4 11.1  9.9  8.9 11.1[/B]

[COLOR="Purple"]Hawks- A. Horford[/COLOR]-   [B]13.3[/B]

[COLOR="Purple"]76"s- S. Dalembert[/COLOR]-  [I]19.2[/I] [B]13.5 14.4 14.6 13.8[/B]

[COLOR="Purple"]Celtics- K. Perkins[/COLOR]- [I]16.8 15.5[/I] [B]14.2 11.3 11.7[/B]

[COLOR="Purple"]Bobcats- N.Mohammed[/COLOR]- [I]13.4 12.3 12.3[/I] [B]16.6 14.6[/B]

[COLOR="Purple"]Bulls- Y. Noah[/COLOR]-      [B]12.8[/B]

[COLOR="Purple"]Cav's- Z. Ilgauskas[/COLOR]- [B]14.6 12.4 12.4 12.3 14.6[/B]

[COLOR="Green"]Pistons- J. Maxiell[/COLOR]- [i] 8.8[/i] [b] 9.6 12.1[/b]

[COLOR="Purple"]Pacers- J. Foster[/COLOR]-   [I]16.3[/I] [B]16.5 14.8 17.3 14.8[/B]

[COLOR="Red"]Heat- M. Blount[/COLOR]-     [B]10.2[/B] [I] 4.8[/I] [B]11.6 10.2 11.9[/B]

[COLOR="Green"]Bucks- A. Bogut[/COLOR]-     [B]11.6 12.6 13.3[/B]

[COLOR="Green"]Nets- N. Krstic[/COLOR]-     [B]10.0  9.9  9.9 14.4[/B]

[COLOR="Purple"]Magic- D. Howard[/COLOR]-    [B]13.3 16.2 16.0 18.1[/B]

[COLOR="Green"]Raptors- C. Bosh[/COLOR]-    [B]10.4 11.5 11.3 13.2 11.5[/B]

[COLOR="Purple"]Mavs- E. Dampier[/COLOR]-    [B]13.1 13.1 13.0 12.8 11.6[/B]

[COLOR="Green"]Nuggets- M. Camby[/COLOR]-   [B]10.1 11.1 12.6 14.4 16.2[/B]

[COLOR="Purple"]Warr.- A. Biedrins[/COLOR]-  [B]14.4 13.4 15.4 17.2[/B]

[COLOR="Purple"]Rockets- Y. Ming[/COLOR]-    [B]13.6 13.1 13.0 14.4 13.3[/B]

[COLOR="Green"]LAC- C. Kaman[/COLOR]-       [B]11.7 12.4 14.0 12.9 16.5[/B]

[COLOR="Red"]Grizz.- K. Brown[/COLOR]-    [B]12.0 11.6 11.8 10.7 11.3[/B]

[COLOR="Purple"]Minn.- A Jefferson[/COLOR]-  [B]14.1 13.6 15.5 14.8[/B]

[COLOR="Green"]Horn.- T. Chandler[/COLOR]-  [B]11.5 13.8 16.8 17.2 16[/B]

[COLOR="Purple"]Suns- S. O'Neal[/COLOR]-     [B]17.6 15.8 14.8 14.7 15.9[/B]

[COLOR="Purple"]Por.- J. Przybilla[/COLOR]-  [I]13.2[/I] [B]12.0 12.7 15.5 15.4[/B]

[COLOR="Purple"]Spurs- T. Duncan[/COLOR]-    [B]14.6 14.0 15.3 15.0 14.9[/B]

[COLOR="Purple"]Sea.- N. Collison[/COLOR]-   [B]13.0 12.2 13.4 15.9[/B]

[COLOR="Red"]Jazz- M. Okur[/COLOR]-       [B]11.9 12.9 12.9 12.1 10.5[/B]

[COLOR="Green"]Kings- B. Miller[/COLOR]-    [B]12.4 15.0 14.2 13.9 12.2[/B]

And for fun..

[COLOR="Purple"]Ben Wallace[/COLOR]-         [I]16.3[/I] [B]13.6 14.9 16.4 18.6[/B]

What does that tell me? Chances are that Hawes will be a below-average rebounder for his position, but there is the possibility he could improve to be good.

 

[fnordius]

I'll toss one more out there, since Aldridge has usually been starting at PF, and Przybilla started at C 67 times this year. He's maybe not a great example, since he never got as much as 20 minutes a game of PT until late in his 4th year, but, FWIW...

rebounds/48, first 5 years
Joel Przybilla: 12.9, 12.1, 12.6, 15.3, 15.1

 

[bajaden]

I'll toss one more out there, since Aldridge has usually been starting at PF, and Przybilla started at C 67 times this year. He's maybe not a great example, since he never got as much as 20 minutes a game of PT until late in his 4th year, but, FWIW...

rebounds/48, first 5 years
Joel Przybilla: 12.9, 12.1, 12.6, 15.3, 15.1

I almost used Przybilla, but his starting minutes were so small that I decided to use Aldridge instead. I would like to see what most of these guys averaged against us. I would bet its higher than their usual average.

 

[hammystyle]

But isn't the point that the reason they are good rebounders is because of those advantages that Hawes doesn't have and will never have?

Your list only shows one player that had significant improvement, which was Thompson. Doesn't that prove that it is likely that what you see in your freshman year is a good indication of what you're going to get?

It's not about what is conceivable, it is about what is likely.

Good post. I agree on all points partiuclarly what is conceivable vs what is likely. Dirk turned himself into a great rebounder, but whenever that is brought up its usually along with "one of the rare players ever to....".

Also isn't being 7 feet tall as a 19 year old an unteachable physical advantage for getting rebounds? I'd say more so than being 69" 270.

Also Lopez, McGee, Hibbert and Arthur are all marked down because of poor rebounding numbers even thought they all improved somewhat, so the fact that Hawes was below them to start (8.8 rebs/40 min) doesn't bode well.

 

[fnordius]

Przybilla's minutes are low due to his being an old and fragile guy on a deep team that's rebuilding. Just the same, he got almost twice as many as Hawes, so he ain't dead yet...

Most of those centers did rebound well against us, although it wasn't quite as imposing of an advantage as one might think. They killed us on offensive boards and blocks, where our rank in differential numbers was 28th in both cases. (We're 27th on both of those stats in absolute terms.) But our relatively high FG% (10th place) meant that there were less opportunities to grab defensive boards, so our defensive rebounds allowed were not as bad as other categories. This pulled us up to an inspiring 18th place in total rebounds allowed, and 23rd in total rebound differential.

 

[bajaden]

Przybilla's minutes are low due to his being an old and fragile guy on a deep team that's rebuilding. Just the same, he got almost twice as many as Hawes, so he ain't dead yet...

Most of those centers did rebound well against us, although it wasn't quite as imposing of an advantage as one might think. They killed us on offensive boards and blocks, where our rank in differential numbers was 28th in both cases. (We're 27th on both of those stats in absolute terms.) But our relatively high FG% (10th place) meant that there were less opportunities to grab defensive boards, so our defensive rebounds allowed were not as bad as other categories. This pulled us up to an inspiring 18th place in total rebounds allowed, and 23rd in total rebound differential.

Offensive boards have been killing us for a while now. I think this is an important draft for us in terms of getting someone who can rebound and defend. Either the draft or through a trade.

 

[fnordius]

Here's a thought...

Theus has implied that he wants a roster which is imposingly big and/or athletic. We're a long way from that goal now, but if they get around to a rebuild at some point, anything's possible, right?

Assuming that Hawes is going to be part of the picture for a long time, and assuming that he'll never be jumping over Dwight Howard or knocking down Shaq, does anyone think he might be able to develop sufficient speed to be an oversized PF? The idea of him playing in tandem with someone like Thabeet (assuming he lives up to hopes, rather than fears) is intriguing to me. It sounds kind of un-Kings, and extremely un-Geoff, but when the competition include pairings like Bynum-Gasol, it's hard to think of how we'd play "smashmouth" basketball against them otherwise.

I don't want this to degenerate into a discussion on whether or not Thabeet is a good draft choice, I just picked him as an example of the type. Substitute the big, scary, defensively competent center of your choice.

Does anyone think this sounds like an interesting idea?

 

[BawLa]

I believe Theus made a point about needing to improve our rebounding in the offseason. I take that to mean he will get us to rebound better as a team and individually. And I hope he convinces GP that we need to draft the best defensive rebounding big available with our first pick.

 

[fnordius]

Yeah... I'm just thinking it won't be as simple as that. Beasley and Love would be long gone, Speights too, probably even Randolph, which leaves us with a choice of several short, unathletic and/or skinny PFs who have slight chance of ever physically dominating the NBA competition. And then we've still got Hawes at C, where he has little in the way of physical advantages. As a PF, his rebounding and shotblocking wouldn't seem bad, and his size might give him a real edge.

Oh well, just thought I'd throw it out there. With my luck, we'll draft a guard anyway.

 

[bajaden]

Yeah... I'm just thinking it won't be as simple as that. Beasley and Love would be long gone, Speights too, probably even Randolph, which leaves us with a choice of several short, unathletic and/or skinny PFs who have slight chance of ever physically dominating the NBA competition. And then we've still got Hawes at C, where he has little in the way of physical advantages. As a PF, his rebounding and shotblocking wouldn't seem bad, and his size might give him a real edge.

Oh well, just thought I'd throw it out there. With my luck, we'll draft a guard anyway.

I'm not sure that Speights will be gone. He has some flaws to his game that might hold him down in the draft. I notice that Thabeet has taken a big slide down the boards. All that can change after the pre-draft get together. I guess we have to decide what we want. If rebounding and shotblocking is all we want, hell Robin Lopez can do that. Not much offense though, at least not yet. Speights is almost the exact opposite of Lopez. He's a pretty good offensive player, but gets lost on defense sometimes. He's not a bad rebounder, and could be the best we can do at our pick. To me, Arthur is the dark horse. I think if all the so called sure things are gone, and Arthur is there, you take him and hope for the best. My only question on him is his desire, which was really hard to judge in the games I watched. I'm getting too long winded.

 

[fnordius]

Speights is 6'10", 245 pounds, the 12th best rebounder in the NCAA per minute played, and very athletic. Depsite his defensive issues, there is potential there to be what Reggie would like, I think. But I'm afraid that he won't last to #12.

Arthur, at 6'9", 215 pounds, and 66th best rebounder, I dunno. I don't doubt that he'll still be available at #12. He could probably embarass Haslem with his athleticism, but when I try to imagine him dominating Duncan or Gasol or Amare, I can't help but chuckle. Hold his own, maybe. "Smashmouth?" No. I consider him the dark pony of the race, unless Geoff disregards Reggie's vision of the team.

It seems likely that Reggie's notion of how things should be won't be possible without some very early draft picks, yet he seems to work hard to avoid getting them. I was trying to come up with some way that it might be possible without, but maybe in the end Geoff is just going to have to tell him that his expectations are unrealistic.

 

[Kingster]

It seems likely that Reggie's notion of how things should be won't be possible without some very early draft picks, yet he seems to work hard to avoid getting them. I was trying to come up with some way that it might be possible without, but maybe in the end Geoff is just going to have to tell him that his expectations are unrealistic.

Yep. I'm just waiting to hear Reggie or management cry about not being able to draft an impact player because of their mediocre draft position...

 

[Kingster]

Offensive rebounds allowed is close, assuming that the bigs are the ones to get the credit/blame. We're currently in 25th place in that stat, so there's plenty of room for improvement.

Good point. It does indicate poor blocking out by the team, just not for individual players.

 

[PurpleHaze]

I've heard Coach Theus say on more that one occasion recently that part of the Kings off-season strategy is to try and move up in the draft if possible.