2011 Lotto Watch

[Vlade4GM]

After chatting with BajaDen this morning I think we both are of opinion that free agency might be the best route to plan on when the NBA is back working again. Draft is nice but no franchise types this year and some of top 10 may still opt to go back to school for one more year. Heck, even Kwamhe Leonard down here at SDSU may go back for one more year after his poor tournament. So not so much excitement for lottery this year.

This free agent class sucks too. So this is the offseason of suckiness.

You never really know how good a draft is until afterward. The prognosticators are not always that accurate, as we saw with the 2008 draft. Besides, even in weak drafts, there's still plent of quality players to be had, they're just not always obvious. While college players may be returning to school, we're seeing more international players enter the draft because the lockout threat kind of works in their favor.

 

[hrdboild]

I believe you are very, very close here with one small change. If two teams have the same record there is a coin flip to determine which one is say third and which if fourth. They split the ping pong balls evenly though, although if there is an odd number the team that won the flip gets the extra ball. The coin flip can take on extra importance though if they both slip out of the top 3, because the winner would pick first between the two. The winner also picks earlier in the second round. At least that is how I believe it goes.

Yeah, that's true. I said it would be different if we were tied but didn't elaborate on how, which you've done nicely. The lottery odds will be split between the teams that tie, but the actual order is determined by a coin flip. Interestingly enough, it's not necessarily a bad thing to lose the coin flip if the actual combination of winning lottery numbers selected corresponds to the numbers you've been assigned. We could tie for 5th with New Jersey, for instance, lose the coin flip, but then win the lottery if one of the number combinations assigned to "6th" place is drawn first. So losing the coin flip would be a stroke of good luck in that case.

 

[Bricklayer]

I am SO much more ok with slipping down/up the draft ladder this year than I was last year. Last year we absolutely NEEDED that top pick. We did not have the talent. There was no other way to get it. We got lucky when basically everybody after Washingon screwed up and passed on Cousins. But this year...this feels like gravy. The talent is already in town. Would love to pile on as much as possible of course, but far from really screwing over our future, this strong close feels like the beginning of it. Finally.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

I am SO much more ok with slipping down/up the draft ladder this year than I was last year. Last year we absolutely NEEDED that top pick. We did not have the talent. There was no other way to get it. We got lucky when basically everybody after Washingon screwed up and passed on Cousins. But this year...this feels like gravy. The talent is already in town. Would love to pile on as much as possible of course, but far from really screwing over our future, this strong close feels like the beginning of it. Finally.

Agreed. Our talent, as young as it is, is really more commensurate with a .500 team than a .300 team (which is exactly where we stand as of now). This year ought to be our last good lottery pick (though perhaps not our last lottery pick, period) for a decent stretch of time.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Washington pulled off a miracle OT win over the Celtics, while Toronto choked away a lead in the fourth. New Jersey lost a close one, and we lost a game we could have won. All in all, it means we can finish anywhere from tied for fourth to sixth by ourselves, and Wednesday will decide it all. If we beat the Lakers (as we all hope we do) we ahve to count on New Jersey winning on the road at Chicago. Seems unlikely, but the only thing the Bulls can be playing for is home court advantage against the Spurs - they have everything else in the bag. Of course, if they lose tomorrow night the Bulls may be out of the tiebreaker and rest their big guys for the playoffs.

Possible lottery position: t4-6
Possible lottery combos: 63-104
Possible draft range: 1-9
Current Competition (teams in red will finish below us):
Minnesota Timberwolves (17-64)
Cleveland Cavaliers (18-63)
Toronto Raptors (22-59)
Washington Wizards (23-58, @CLE)
Sacramento Kings (24-57, LAL)
New Jersey Nets (24-57, @CHI)

 

[Vlade4GM]

Agreed. Our talent, as young as it is, is really more commensurate with a .500 team than a .300 team (which is exactly where we stand as of now). This year ought to be our last good lottery pick (though perhaps not our last lottery pick, period) for a decent stretch of time.

That's what I thought last year.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Washington pulled off a miracle OT win over the Celtics, while Toronto choked away a lead in the fourth. New Jersey lost a close one, and we lost a game we could have won. All in all, it means we can finish anywhere from tied for fourth to sixth by ourselves, and Wednesday will decide it all. If we beat the Lakers (as we all hope we do) we ahve to count on New Jersey winning on the road at Chicago. Seems unlikely, but the only thing the Bulls can be playing for is home court advantage against the Spurs - they have everything else in the bag. Of course, if they lose tomorrow night the Bulls may be out of the tiebreaker and rest their big guys for the playoffs.

Possible lottery position: t4-6
Possible lottery combos: 63-104
Possible draft range: 1-9
Current Competition (teams in red will finish below us):
Minnesota Timberwolves (17-64)
Cleveland Cavaliers (18-63)
Toronto Raptors (22-59)
Washington Wizards (23-58, @CLE)
Sacramento Kings (24-57, LAL)
New Jersey Nets (24-57, @CHI)

Screw the Nets for not winning. Bastards.

 

[hrdboild]

Something I've been thinking about, and it's really just torturous speculation, is that if Washington does manage to win their last game (against Cleveland I think?) and we lose and New Jersey loses, that puts us in a three way tie for the 4,5,6 spots. Since the odds are very high that somebody in the 4th, 5th, or 6th spot ends up with a top 3 pick, maybe even first overall... the lucky team which gets to move up is going to be determined by the coin flip. The difference between Irving/Williams and the leftovers at the 4-9 spots could literally be just one coin flip.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Something I've been thinking about, and it's really just torturous speculation, is that if Washington does manage to win their last game (against Cleveland I think?) and we lose and New Jersey loses, that puts us in a three way tie for the 4,5,6 spots. Since the odds are very high that somebody in the 4th, 5th, or 6th spot ends up with a top 3 pick, maybe even first overall... the lucky team which gets to move up is going to be determined by the coin flip. The difference between Irving/Williams and the leftovers at the 4-9 spots could literally be just one coin flip.

If it's a 3-way tie between those spots, that will leave us with 90 combos out of the total 1000. That leaves a 9% shot at the no.1 pick, and approximately a 30% shot at a top 3 pick. They're about the same odds as having the sole possession of the 5th spot.

 

[hrdboild]

If it's a 3-way tie between those spots, that will leave us with 90 combos out of the total 1000. That leaves a 9% shot at the no.1 pick, and approximately a 30% shot at a top 3 pick. They're about the same odds as having the sole possession of the 5th spot.

Right...but those odds would be the same for Washington and New Jersey (Utah actually via trade) -- so that's a 27% chance of #1 and 90% of at least one of the top 3 coming from one of those three teams. And which combinations are assigned to each team will be the result of the coin flip. Now do you see what I'm saying? It's very likely that one of those three teams is going to move up in the lottery and the coin flip will determine which one it is.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Right...but those odds would be the same for Washington and New Jersey (Utah actually via trade) -- so that's a 27% chance of #1 and 90% of at least one of the top 3 coming from one of those three teams. And which combinations are assigned to each team will be the result of the coin flip. Now do you see what I'm saying? It's very likely that one of those three teams is going to move up in the lottery and the coin flip will determine which one it is.

Well, if you'd like to look at it as the coin flip determining the winner, fine, but I'm afraid that still doesn't change the odds going into the lottery for each individual team since all the numbers and combinations are equally likely to be drawn. There's no bias towards the particular set of combos that the 4th, 5th, or 6th place team get. The only advantage over another team is having more combos, not different ones. The difference between one set of 90 combos and another set of 90 combos is just the random chance of the drawing.

 

[King-Da-Yah]

Right...but those odds would be the same for Washington and New Jersey (Utah actually via trade) -- so that's a 27% chance of #1 and 90% of at least one of the top 3 coming from one of those three teams. And which combinations are assigned to each team will be the result of the coin flip. Now do you see what I'm saying? It's very likely that one of those three teams is going to move up in the lottery and the coin flip will determine which one it is.

Crazy that just one more loss this season would have had us sitting pretty for sole possession of 4th spot. Heck we could have tied for Third too. Damn you Toronto, and New Jersey you are no better. I see what your saying hrdboild, and I think that if by some miracle Washington wins (hey they had a clutch woss last year in their final game of the season against IND), we will be in pretty good shape in a tie with Washington for 4th. Luck has to smile on us as far as moving up sooner or later after all. Just give me D-Will and color me ecstatic.

 

[Sptsjunkie]

Crazy that just one more loss this season would have had us sitting pretty for sole possession of 4th spot. Heck we could have tied for Third too. Damn you Toronto, and New Jersey you are no better. I see what your saying hrdboild, and I think that if by some miracle Washington wins (hey they had a clutch woss last year in their final game of the season against IND), we will be in pretty good shape in a tie with Washington for 4th. Luck has to smile on us as far as moving up sooner or later after all. Just give me D-Will and color me ecstatic.

Then again, we got "unlucky" the last two years and wound up with Reke and Cousins. Shoot, if we can get really "unlucky" just one more time, we might be contenders before too long.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Quick update: Washington lost. Kings will finish 5th, tied for 5th, or 6th.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Stupid choking Wizards. What the hell is wrong with them? Why can't they finish against the Cavs?

The Nets are about to lose as well. Ugh, things are going as bad as they can go.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Quick update: New Jersey lost. Kings will finish tied for 5th or 6th.

 

[King-Da-Yah]

Prediction: we lose the coin flip, and drop as low as possible. Why you ask? Because we drop EVERY draft. The higher our chance to get lucky, the further we drop. A 50/50 coin toss is very bad for any team from Sacramento.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Well, it was so very nearly a glorious comeback, but we'll now need to lose the coin flip to get the appropriate "6th" spot in the lottery. We'll have 75 or 76 combos, depending on how the coin toss goes. I'm still feeling either Kyrie Irving or Derrick Williams. We're looking at about a 25% chance of being in the lottery. One of these years we have to get lucky - why not this one?

 

[rainmaker]

Kings won the tiebreaker drawing today, and will pick ahead of the Jazz.

 

[D13]

Kings won the tiebreaker drawing today, and will pick ahead of the Jazz.

Ya mean the Nets?... So we got the 5th pick..

edit: Oh, Jazz have the Nets pick this year... nm..

 

[rainmaker]

Ya mean the Nets?... So we got the 5th pick..

utah has their pick

 

[D13]

utah has their pick

Yea, I caught that late and had edited my first post after... we picked up 1 more lottery combo tho, yay!

 

[Capt. Factorial]

This is good news, because now if we don't hit (which is most likely) we pick one slot earlier than we would had we lost (and not hit). We'll be 1-3 or 5-8.

 

[Vlade4GM]

I totally forgot about the tiebreaker today. Good news! Even though it's a small win, it's still more luck than we've had in anything related to the draft. Remember the 3-way tiebreaker in the 2007 draft? If we had gotten first or second, we would have had Noah instead of Hawes.

 

[Fear the Putin]

I totally forgot about the tiebreaker today. Good news! Even though it's a small win, it's still more luck than we've had in anything related to the draft. Remember the 3-way tiebreaker in the 2007 draft? If we had gotten first or second, we would have had Noah instead of Hawes.

and then played a lot better and would miss out on Cousins.

It works out in the end! Hawes as the savior!

 

[Vlade4GM]

and then played a lot better and would miss out on Cousins.

It works out in the end! Hawes as the savior!

You don't know what would have become of the team.

 

[IfAt1st]

Un/fortunately, I predict the Kings will win (too) many games from here on out, and will easily beat/lose the record of the Timberwolves, Wizards, and Raptors.

I'm guessing the Kings will end up 5th worst record, and end up with the 5th or 6th pick in the draft, and be left with not much talent to chose from.

They're going to HAVE to find FA's that can hit a shot and make a play consistently when the games are on the line.
EVERY winning team has them, and the Kings do not.

Well, turns out I predicted right on 3/11. (5th worst record)
Since then, Marcus Thornton has become a pretty clutch shooter, at least.
We'll see what kind of talent is available, and where their ultimate pick # is.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

You don't know what would have become of the team.

Your joke detector is broken.

 

[ockingsfan]

getting the tie breaker for the #5 pick, helps take the sting out of losing to the lakers last wednesday... if the kings would have won that game, they would have had sole possesion of #6 pick, unless they got lucky or unlucky in the lottery...

now, if they can stay at #5 or jump up into the top 3, they should get a pretty good player in the draft

 

[UK_King]

All the mock drafts this year seem to differ a hell of a lot.

doesn't seem anyone has clue whether these players are any good or not.