2011 Lotto Watch

[Capt. Factorial]

Again we seem to be doing it all ourselves, but after the refs allowed the Denver mugging tonight we have secured the title of Worst NBA Team in California, 2010-2011. That honor brings us another 8 lotto combos and guarantees we draft no worse than 10th, though we'll start out in the #7 slot or better. Washington got the win against Cleveland, but somebody had to. The rest of our active competitors lost tonight and New Jersey seems determined to drop below us. With 21 wins and Cleveland maxed out at 22, we're actually poised to eliminate somebody soon.

Kings record: 21-54
Kings max wins: 28
Highest possible lottery position: 7
Minimum lottery combos: 43
Possible draft range: 1-10
Next team to eliminate us: Detroit Pistons (26-49)
Current Competition:
Cleveland Cavaliers (15-60, 7 remaining, 6 against teams under .500, 3 at home)
Minnesota Timberwolves (17-59, 6 remaining, 3 against teams under .500, 2 at home)
Washington Wizards (19-56, 7 remaining, 4 against teams under .500, 3 at home)
Toronto Raptors (20-54, 8 remaining, 4 against teams under .500, 4 at home)
Sacramento Kings (21-54, 7 remaining, 2 against teams under .500, 3 at home)
New Jersey Nets (23-52, 7 remaining, 5 against teams under .500, 4 at home)

 

[Vlade4GM]

I doubt things will go our way today.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

I doubt things will go our way today.

Well, we're 5-5 in our last ten. Our six "competitors" are 12-48 in their last 60. I think over the last 2-3 weeks we've firmly established that we're on a higher tier than any of them. It's probably really just a question of whether we slip in front of New Jersey...possibly Detroit. The Cavs, the T'Wolves, and the Wizards are basically untouchable, and the Raptors might be, but have an easier road for their last seven. No update last night because the server was down, we'll see where we stand tonight.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Well, it wasn't all bad news in the Lotto Watch as Washington and Toronto both got wins. It was nice to watch us take care of a decimated Jazz team (no Harris, no Kirilenko), even if it didn't help the Combo Quest. For the first time all season, we have guaranteed that we will not be the worst team in the league, having eliminated the Cavaliers with our victory and their loss.

Kings record: 22-54
Kings max wins: 28
Possible lottery position: 2-7
Minimum lottery combos: 43
Possible draft range: 1-10
Next team to eliminate us: Detroit Pistons (26-50)
Current Competition (teams in red will finish below us):
Cleveland Cavaliers (15-61)
Minnesota Timberwolves (17-60, 5 remaining, 3 against teams under .500, 2 at home)
Washington Wizards (20-56, 6 remaining, 3 against teams under .500, 3 at home)
Toronto Raptors (21-55, 6 remaining, 3 against teams under .500, 3 at home)
Sacramento Kings (22-54, 6 remaining, 1 against teams under .500, 2 at home)
New Jersey Nets (23-53, 6 remaining, 4 against teams under .500, 3 at home)

 

[sackingsfan4life]

kings will draft terrence jones. mark my post.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

OK, we are officially a good team now. That doesn't bode well for our future in the lotto watch, but New Jersey plays Detroit tomorrow, so somebody's got to win. At least it's actually fun to watch the Kings now! With the Minnesota loss today, they will now officially finish below us.

Kings record: 23-54
Kings max wins: 28
Possible lottery position: 3-7
Minimum lottery combos: 43
Possible draft range: 1-10
Current Competition (teams in red will finish below us):
Cleveland Cavaliers (16-61)
Minnesota Timberwolves (17-61)
Washington Wizards (21-56, 5 remaining, 2 against teams under .500, 2 at home)
Toronto Raptors (21-56, 5 remaining, 3 against teams under .500, 3 at home)
Sacramento Kings (23-54, 5 remaining, 1 against teams under .500, 2 at home)
New Jersey Nets (24-53, 5 remaining, 3 against teams under .500, 2 at home)
Detroit Pistons (26-51, 5 remaining, 4 against teams under .500, 3 at home)

 

[King-Da-Yah]

kings will draft terrence jones. mark my post.

I would be impressed with your foresight if you would have made this prediction months ago, like Gary in his "Demarcus Cousins will be a King" post.

 

[Tetsujin]

I would be impressed with your foresight if you would have made this prediction months ago, like Gary in his "Demarcus Cousins will be a King" post.

Hold off on marking my words until about 5 minutes prior to our pick being announced

 

[Spike]

Considering I've been wrong about Petrie's picks the past few years, (save the last) I won't be making any guesses.

 

[kingsboi]

Who knows where were going to end up picking come June, I doubt we will have a shot of Irving/Williams/Knight so depending on where we pick, I'd be open to trading the pick if the right player isn't available for us.

 

[sterö]

Who knows where were going to end up picking come June, I doubt we will have a shot of Irving/Williams/Knight so depending on where we pick, I'd be open to trading the pick if the right player isn't available for us.

If we pick in the 5-7 range, Knight, Walker and/or T Jones should be still available.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

To mis-paraphrase a man whose last name was Blair was whose first name was not DeJuan: Two quarters good, four quarters bad. But with our loss and the Pistons winning, we can now finish no worse than a tie for 6th, and that earns us 10 more lotto combos. Somewhat amazingly, with Minnesota's loss and Cleveland's win (thanks, Toronto!) the Cavs are no longer the worst team in the league. There are no games of interest until Friday.

Kings record: 23-55
Kings max wins: 27
Possible lottery position: 3-t6
Minimum lottery combos: 53
Possible draft range: 1-10
Current Competition (teams in red will finish below us):
Minnesota Timberwolves (17-62)
Cleveland Cavaliers (17-61)
Washington Wizards (21-57, 4 remaining, 1 against teams under .500, 2 at home)
Toronto Raptors (21-57, 4 remaining, 2 against teams under .500, 2 at home)
Sacramento Kings (23-55, 4 remaining, 1 against teams under .500, 2 at home)
New Jersey Nets (24-54, 4 remaining, 2 against teams under .500, 2 at home)
Detroit Pistons (27-51, 4 remaining, 3 against teams under .500, 2 at home)

 

[Vlade4GM]

It would be kind of ironic if Minny finally gets the no.1 pick in such a sucky draft, and the best players in this draft are a combo forward and a PG. Rubio, Beasley, Randolph, and Love are already at those positions.

 

[King-Da-Yah]

It would be kind of ironic if Minny finally gets the no.1 pick in such a sucky draft, and the best players in this draft are a combo forward and a PG. Rubio, Beasley, Randolph, and Love are already at those positions.

On that note, here is a future Khan quote:

"Kyrie passes like Vlade, he has superstar written all over him"

 

[ElRey]

I like the 5th lottery slot and hope that we can stay in it. 5th slot seems to be the sweet spot. Traditionally it has been a good slot to be in, as it has done well in winning the lottery in the past. But at the same time, even if you don't win the lottery, having a #5 pick is not bad itself. last year Washington won the lottery from the 5th slot.

Lottery wins by slot since 1985

1st - 4 times
2nd - 4 times
3rd - 5 times
4th - 1 time
5th - 5 times
6th - 3 times
7th - 2 times

 

[kingsboi]

If we pick in the 5-7 range, Knight, Walker and/or T Jones should be still available.

I don't know if I see Knight dropping to 5. I think he's proven he's clutch and a good scorer and in this weak draft, I think someone will take him pretty early. Walker and T. Jones, yeah...I can see them dropping out of the top 5.

 

[Vlade4GM]

I like the 5th lottery slot and hope that we can stay in it. 5th slot seems to be the sweet spot. Traditionally it has been a good slot to be in, as it has done well in winning the lottery in the past. But at the same time, even if you don't win the lottery, having a #5 pick is not bad itself. last year Washington won the lottery from the 5th slot. As you can see, the slot 4 that we were in last year is not a good slot to be in to win the lottery.

Lottery wins by slot since 1985

1st - 4 times
2nd - 4 times
3rd - 5 times
4th - 1 time
5th - 5 times
6th - 3 times
7th - 2 times

That has no affect on the statisical odds of the lottery.

 

[est.1999]

Plus, we were in the 3rd slot last year, not 4th.

 

[ElRey]

Plus, we were in the 3rd slot last year, not 4th.

whoops you're right, i stand corrected.

 

[ElRey]

That has no affect on the statisical odds of the lottery.

There are statistical odds and then there are actual results. How many years have we been in the lottery the past 25 years and how many times have we won it again? 1 . or how many times when we even cracked the top 3 draft positions? only 2 from what i remember. (Pervis Ellison at number 1 and then Billy owens at no. 3) The lottery hasn't really been good to us. Just saying the 5th slot has been a good slot in the past.

 

[JJ22L]

There are statistical odds and then there are actual results. How many years have we been in the lottery the past 25 years and how many times have we won it again? 1 . or how many times when we even cracked the top 3 draft positions? only 2 from what i remember. (Pervis Ellison at number 1 and then Billy owens at no. 3) The lottery hasn't really been good to us. Just saying the 5th slot has been a good slot in the past.

Unfortunately, the very fundamentals of mathematics disagree with you :-\.

I definitely understand where you are going with this, though.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Well, Detroit won to guarantee us the 6 spot at worst, and then we lost a close one to keep pace with the other three relevant teams (who also all lost). By ensuring no worse than 6th we picked up another 10 lotto combos for a total of 63 and a minimum 21.5% chance of a top-3 pick. We've got a decent shot of staying under New Jersey (though they are missing Deron Williams) but I think Washington and Toronto will be out of reach. The only "interesting" game tomorrow will be Atlanta at Washington.

Kings record: 23-56
Kings max wins: 26
Possible lottery position: 3-6
Minimum lottery combos: 63
Possible draft range: 1-9
Current Competition (teams in red will finish below us):
Minnesota Timberwolves (17-62)
Cleveland Cavaliers (17-62)
Washington Wizards (21-58, ATL, BOS, @CLE)
Toronto Raptors (21-58, NJ, @MIL, MIA)
Sacramento Kings (23-56, @GS, OKC, LAL)
New Jersey Nets (24-55, @TOR, CHA, @CHI)

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Well, whaddya know? Washington beat the Hawks, and beat 'em good, to make things at least relatively interesting. The relevant teams now have 21, 22, 23, and 24 wins. Toronto plays New Jersey tomorrow, so somebody's gotta win...

Kings record: 23-56
Kings max wins: 26
Possible lottery position: 3-6
Minimum lottery combos: 63
Possible draft range: 1-9
Current Competition (teams in red will finish below us):
Minnesota Timberwolves (17-63)
Cleveland Cavaliers (17-63)
Toronto Raptors (21-58, NJ, @MIL, MIA)
Washington Wizards (22-58, BOS, @CLE)
Sacramento Kings (23-56, @GS, OKC, LAL)
New Jersey Nets (24-55, @TOR, CHA, @CHI)

 

[Capt. Factorial]

With the win tonight, even though the Raptors also won, we can now finish no "higher" than a three-way tie for third, but that's pretty unlikely. It's beginning to look like New Jersey will never win a game again, so a tie for sixth is starting to seem like the realistic best-case scenario. We'll know by Wednesday night...

Kings record: 24-56
Kings max wins: 26
Possible lottery position: t3-6
Possible lottery combos: 63-121
Possible draft range: 1-9
Current Competition (teams in red will finish below us):
Minnesota Timberwolves (17-63)
Cleveland Cavaliers (17-63)
Toronto Raptors (22-58, @MIL, MIA)
Washington Wizards (22-58, BOS, @CLE)
Sacramento Kings (24-56, OKC, LAL)
New Jersey Nets (24-56, CHA, @CHI)

 

[King-Da-Yah]

With the win tonight, even though the Raptors also won, we can now finish no "higher" than a three-way tie for third, but that's pretty unlikely. It's beginning to look like New Jersey will never win a game again, so a tie for sixth is starting to seem like the realistic best-case scenario. We'll know by Wednesday night...

Kings record: 24-56
Kings max wins: 26
Possible lottery position: t3-6
Possible lottery combos: 63-121
Possible draft range: 1-9
Current Competition (teams in red will finish below us):
Minnesota Timberwolves (17-63)
Cleveland Cavaliers (17-63)
Toronto Raptors (22-58, @MIL, MIA)
Washington Wizards (22-58, BOS, @CLE)
Sacramento Kings (24-56, OKC, LAL)
New Jersey Nets (24-56, CHA, @CHI)

Stop me if I am wrong here Cap. But let's say we lose our last 2 (both of which I really really want to win) and New Jersey by some miracle wins one of their games and gets to 25 wins. Now regardless of what Cleveland, Minny, Toronto and Washington do, let's say they all finish with the same record. So here is how it looks on Thursday. Remember this is all hypothetical:

T-1. Cleveland, Minnesota (17 wins)
T-2. Washington, Toronto (22 wins)
3. Sacramento (24 wins)
4. New Jersey (25 wins)

Now it is my understanding that when teams tie, they add up the combinations and each team get some sort of average (this part confuses me). If everything shakes out like this do we end up with 3rd worst calibre combinations? Sorry for asking so early inthe process, I just remember you and others doing a great job of exPlaining this last season.

 

[hrdboild]

Stop me if I am wrong here Cap. But let's say we lose our last 2 (both of which I really really want to win) and New Jersey by some miracle wins one of their games and gets to 25 wins. Now regardless of what Cleveland, Minny, Toronto and Washington do, let's say they all finish with the same record. So here is how it looks on Thursday. Remember this is all hypothetical:

T-1. Cleveland, Minnesota (17 wins)
T-2. Washington, Toronto (22 wins)
3. Sacramento (24 wins)
4. New Jersey (25 wins)

Now it is my understanding that when teams tie, they add up the combinations and each team get some sort of average (this part confuses me). If everything shakes out like this do we end up with 3rd worst calibre combinations? Sorry for asking so early inthe process, I just remember you and others doing a great job of exPlaining this last season.

That's not how the ranking works out in the event of a tie. We wouldn't have the third worst record in that case, we would have the fifth worst still:

T-1. Cleveland, Minnesota
T-3. Washington, Toronto
5. Sacramento
6. New Jersey

Minnesota and Cleveland would split the combinations for first and second equally, then Washington and Toronto would split the combinations for third and fourth equally and we'd get the combinations for fifth. The only way a tie affects us is if we end up tied with another team or teams. Otherwise you're just slotted into position based on how many teams were worse than you.

 

[Sptsjunkie]

That's not how the ranking works out in the event of a tie. We wouldn't have the third worst record in that case, we would have the fifth worst still:

T-1. Cleveland, Minnesota
T-3. Washington, Toronto
5. Sacramento
6. New Jersey

Minnesota and Cleveland would split the combinations for first and second equally, then Washington and Toronto would split the combinations for third and fourth equally and we'd get the combinations for fifth. The only way a tie affects us is if we end up tied with another team or teams. Otherwise you're just slotted into position based on how many teams were worse than you.

I believe you are very, very close here with one small change. If two teams have the same record there is a coin flip to determine which one is say third and which if fourth. They split the ping pong balls evenly though, although if there is an odd number the team that won the flip gets the extra ball. The coin flip can take on extra importance though if they both slip out of the top 3, because the winner would pick first between the two. The winner also picks earlier in the second round. At least that is how I believe it goes.

 

[Vlade4GM]

I think they flip the order in the 2nd round.

 

[CruzDude]

After chatting with BajaDen this morning I think we both are of opinion that free agency might be the best route to plan on when the NBA is back working again. Draft is nice but no franchise types this year and some of top 10 may still opt to go back to school for one more year. Heck, even Kwamhe Leonard down here at SDSU may go back for one more year after his poor tournament. So not so much excitement for lottery this year.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

After chatting with BajaDen this morning I think we both are of opinion that free agency might be the best route to plan on when the NBA is back working again. Draft is nice but no franchise types this year and some of top 10 may still opt to go back to school for one more year. Heck, even Kwamhe Leonard down here at SDSU may go back for one more year after his poor tournament. So not so much excitement for lottery this year.

Unless we break our current cold streak and hit! Top three picks should still have some excellent value in them. Irving is in, and my guess is in the end both Williams and Barnes will declare as well.