Brooks/Evans/Salmons -- Why Its Working
- Thread starter Bricklayer
- Start date
i fail to comprehend what you mean. a young team must start somewhere, correct? the sonics/thunder looked truly abysmal early on in kevin durant's career. they were certainly a "bottom quartile team" even after drafting russell westbrook, but they kept the long view in mind, and developed their young talent into a disciplined core. of course, theirs is a model of expediency and efficiency that few young teams will be able to live up to. however, that does not mean that other young teams should not be aiming for discipline in their offensive execution. my head is not in the clouds. i am not talking about teaching these young kings the complexities of the triangle offense, for chrissakes. i am talking about simple, measured pick and roll basketball in the halfcourt, the kind that demarcus cousins and tyreke evans have already proven they can execute together successfully. in the stroller though they may be at the nba level, these kids are still basketball-lifers. they understand basic offensive sets, and it doesn't get any more fundamental than the pick and roll...
Very sorry to dup this post over from another thread, but while it seemed topical over there, it also seemed likely to get lost and spot on for this older thread, and I felt like these numbers deserved to see some light. Not to mention the fact I busted my butt to produce them, so 
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Want to see something pretty amazing?
I went and did some hard data crunching, taking a look at each game in which the Brooks/Evans/Salmons/JT/Cuz quintet has been together as a starting unit, then going through the play by play and checking the scores when the group was broken up by subs, or put back in. Here are the results:
Game 1: vs. BKN -- 23-15 (18-13 first quarter, 5-2 after half)
Game 2: vs. LAL -- 24-22 (11-10 first quarter, 13-12 third quarter)
Game 3: vs. UTH -- 58-44 (27-18 first, 6-5 second, 25-21 third)
Game 4: vs. UTH -- 38-30 (16-16 first, 22-14 third)
Game 5: vs. MIN -- 27-27 (21-20 first, 6-7 third)
Game 6: vs. TOR -- 58-53 (21-25 first, 10-5 second, 18-19 third, 9-4 fourth)
Game 7: vs. OKC -- 26-23 (8-10 first, 18-13 third)
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Total score: 254-214 +40/7gms = +5.7pts/game
Look at those numbers. Look at them. And you wonder why some of us have been calling for MORE of that five some? Why we are so pissed at the coach for not putting them back in on schedule, not lettig them close games? Look at the numbers! Six of those seven teams are likely playoff teams too. That group of starters has been matched with Kobe, Durant, Westbrook, Deron, Love...huge stars. And its won, handily. So you know how good a +5.7pts a game margin is? Let's put it this way: Miami only has a +5.0. It would be the 6th best +/- in the entire NBA.
The problem is not that lineup. The problem is everything BUT that lineup. That lineup has been doing great. if guys are healthy and not suspended, its won almost every encounter. Smart is an idiot for not just playing that 5 some 35 minutes a game with each other. its been working.
P.S. Somebody please forward this onto Dwyer. Somebody else over to Smart/Petrie. I don't trust any of those nitwits to figure it out themselves.
:Want to see something pretty amazing?
I went and did some hard data crunching, taking a look at each game in which the Brooks/Evans/Salmons/JT/Cuz quintet has been together as a starting unit, then going through the play by play and checking the scores when the group was broken up by subs, or put back in. Here are the results:
Game 1: vs. BKN -- 23-15 (18-13 first quarter, 5-2 after half)
Game 2: vs. LAL -- 24-22 (11-10 first quarter, 13-12 third quarter)
Game 3: vs. UTH -- 58-44 (27-18 first, 6-5 second, 25-21 third)
Game 4: vs. UTH -- 38-30 (16-16 first, 22-14 third)
Game 5: vs. MIN -- 27-27 (21-20 first, 6-7 third)
Game 6: vs. TOR -- 58-53 (21-25 first, 10-5 second, 18-19 third, 9-4 fourth)
Game 7: vs. OKC -- 26-23 (8-10 first, 18-13 third)
--------------------------------------------------------------
Total score: 254-214 +40/7gms = +5.7pts/game
Look at those numbers. Look at them. And you wonder why some of us have been calling for MORE of that five some? Why we are so pissed at the coach for not putting them back in on schedule, not lettig them close games? Look at the numbers! Six of those seven teams are likely playoff teams too. That group of starters has been matched with Kobe, Durant, Westbrook, Deron, Love...huge stars. And its won, handily. So you know how good a +5.7pts a game margin is? Let's put it this way: Miami only has a +5.0. It would be the 6th best +/- in the entire NBA.
The problem is not that lineup. The problem is everything BUT that lineup. That lineup has been doing great. if guys are healthy and not suspended, its won almost every encounter. Smart is an idiot for not just playing that 5 some 35 minutes a game with each other. its been working.
P.S. Somebody please forward this onto Dwyer. Somebody else over to Smart/Petrie. I don't trust any of those nitwits to figure it out themselves.
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Just doing some quick data scouring across the internet further shows how effective that starting 5 has been.
82games
The starting unit is a +35 total over 104 total minutes played. Its outscored its opponents in 5 games, and been outscored in only 1 (Win-Loss). Its win-loss percentage is .83. Per 36 minutes, its expected to be +12.12.
Just as a comparison...
(+/-, +/- per 36 minutes, W-L, Win%)
Miami: Chalmers/Wade/Battier/James/Bosh (+46, +10.35, 8-2, .80)
OKC: Westbrook-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins (+46, +5.18, 11-9, .55)
OKC w/Martin: Westbrook-Martin-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins (+26, +7.26, 12-7, .63).
NYK: Felton-Kidd-Brewer-Anthony-Chandler (+53, +13.63, 7-4, .64)
Teams that qualify for the playoffs in the West who don't have a better 5 man unit than the Kings' starting lineup.
Best linuep below with assorted statistics. I picked the units kind of on what I expect the team's best lineup to be; one that gets significant minutes, and one that would expect to finish a game. (+/-, +/- per 36 minutes, W-L, Win%)
Warriors: Curry-Jack-Thompson-Landry-Lee (+19, +7.30, 9-5, .64)
Timberwolves: Ridnour-Lee-Kirilenko-Love-Pekovic (+9, +3.90, 3-2, .60)
Jazz: Mo.Williams-Foye-Carroll-Millsap-Jefferson (+11, +6.39, 3-1, .75)
Nuggets: Lawson-Iguodala-Gallinari-Faried-Koufos (+20, +3.2, 8-9, .47)
Playoff teams with arguably comparable/better 5-man units
(+/-, +/- per 36 minutes, W-L, Win%)
OKC: Westbrook-Martin-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins (+28, +7.24, 12-7, .63)
Spurs: Parker-Ginobili-Green-Diaw-Duncan (+25, +30.61, 6-2, .75)
Clippers: Paul-Crawford-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan (+54, +38.72, 10-2, .83)
Memphis: Conley-Allen-Gay-Randolph-Gasol (+79, +10.83, 10-4, .71)
Its truly astounding that ONLY the elite teams in the West have comparably successful five man units than our starting lineup. The problems are not with the starters. The problem is the rotation and bench play (and I guess you can include injuries, suspensions, and foul trouble to that list). Thats on the coach.
82games
The starting unit is a +35 total over 104 total minutes played. Its outscored its opponents in 5 games, and been outscored in only 1 (Win-Loss). Its win-loss percentage is .83. Per 36 minutes, its expected to be +12.12.
Just as a comparison...
(+/-, +/- per 36 minutes, W-L, Win%)
Miami: Chalmers/Wade/Battier/James/Bosh (+46, +10.35, 8-2, .80)
OKC: Westbrook-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins (+46, +5.18, 11-9, .55)
OKC w/Martin: Westbrook-Martin-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins (+26, +7.26, 12-7, .63).
NYK: Felton-Kidd-Brewer-Anthony-Chandler (+53, +13.63, 7-4, .64)
Teams that qualify for the playoffs in the West who don't have a better 5 man unit than the Kings' starting lineup.
Best linuep below with assorted statistics. I picked the units kind of on what I expect the team's best lineup to be; one that gets significant minutes, and one that would expect to finish a game. (+/-, +/- per 36 minutes, W-L, Win%)
Warriors: Curry-Jack-Thompson-Landry-Lee (+19, +7.30, 9-5, .64)
Timberwolves: Ridnour-Lee-Kirilenko-Love-Pekovic (+9, +3.90, 3-2, .60)
Jazz: Mo.Williams-Foye-Carroll-Millsap-Jefferson (+11, +6.39, 3-1, .75)
Nuggets: Lawson-Iguodala-Gallinari-Faried-Koufos (+20, +3.2, 8-9, .47)
Playoff teams with arguably comparable/better 5-man units
(+/-, +/- per 36 minutes, W-L, Win%)
OKC: Westbrook-Martin-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins (+28, +7.24, 12-7, .63)
Spurs: Parker-Ginobili-Green-Diaw-Duncan (+25, +30.61, 6-2, .75)
Clippers: Paul-Crawford-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan (+54, +38.72, 10-2, .83)
Memphis: Conley-Allen-Gay-Randolph-Gasol (+79, +10.83, 10-4, .71)
Its truly astounding that ONLY the elite teams in the West have comparably successful five man units than our starting lineup. The problems are not with the starters. The problem is the rotation and bench play (and I guess you can include injuries, suspensions, and foul trouble to that list). Thats on the coach.
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Have to disagree that IT-Reke can't be incredibly effective if working in tandem with Salmons-JT-Cuz. It didn't work at the beginning of the year because Reke and JJ couldn't hit jumpers to save their life. Add in Reke magically finding a jumper and Salmons being incredibly effective as a spot-up shooter and you have your reasoning as to why the above lineup has been successful. Fact is, no one knows how those two would operate in a lineup together because the IT-Reke-Salmons-JT-Cuz lineup hasn't been tried yet.
I thought about starting a new thread for this, but what the hell, I'll just throw it in here. There have been references to our PG's as chuckers etc, amongst other things as well. But lets start with that. I like breaking things down to minutes, because everyone doesn't play the exact same amount of minutes. So I'm listing how often each of the players listed shoots the ball.
I. Thomas: 1 shot every 2.5 minutes he's on the court
A. Brooks: 1 shot every 3.1 minutes he's on the court
J. Fredette: 1 shot every 2.3 minutes he's on the court
T. Evans: 1 shot every 2.4 minutes he's on the court
M. Thronton: 1 shot every 2.1 minutes he's on the court
Yes, I realize that Thornton isn't a PG, but I thought I'd throw him in anyway for the hell of it. How about Cousins?
Cousins: 1 shot every 1.9 minutes he's on the court. Obviously Cousins shoots the ball more than anyone in the time he's on the court followed closely by Thornton. But thats not important. Whats important is how our PG's stack up against other more notable PG's in the league.
D. Lillard: 1 shot every 2.4 minutes on the court.
D Williams: 1 shot every 2.5 minutes on the court.
J. Calderon: 1 shot every 3.4 minutes on the court.
C. Paul: 1 shot every 2.3 minutes on the court.
K. Lowery: 1 shot every 2.5 minutes on the court.
J. Teague: 1 shot every 2.6 minutes on the court.
Well, if you compare our guys with those guys, they stack up fairly well as far as shots per minute go. Unfortunately, thats where it ends, and thats the major problem with the team. Lets take a look at assists per minute.
I. Thomas: 1 assist every 10.1 minutes on the court, and 1 turnover every 10.7 minutes on the court.
A. Brooks: 1 assist every 9.4 minutes on the court, and 1 turnover every 15.6 minutes on the court.
J. Fredette: 1 assist every 9.3 minutes on the court, and 1 turnover every 11.2 minutes on the court.
T. Evans: 1 assist every 9.1 minutes on the court, and 1 turnover every 13.9 minutes on the court.
Now lets compare them to the others we've listed.
D. Lillard: 1 assist every 5.8 minutes on the court, and 1 turnover every 12.1 minutes on the court
D. Williams: 1 assist every 4.4 minutes on the court, and 1 turnover every 12.3 minutes on the court
J. Calderon: 1 assist every 4.0 minutes on the court, and 1 turnover every 14.4 minutes on the court
C. Paul: 1 assist every 3.5 minutes on the court, and 1 turnover every 13.7 minutes on the court.
K. Lowery: 1 assist every 5.3 minutes on the court, and 1 turnover every 11.9 minutes on the court
J. Teague: 1 assist every 4.9 minutes on the court, and 1 turnover every 11.5 minutes on the court
None of our guys assists per minute comes close to the group I just listed, and thats a major problem for this team. Of our guys, Brooks turns the ball over the least, and is second to Tyreke in assists per minute, but no one blows me away as a good assist man. Lillard, if on our team, would be the best PG on the team immediately, and it wouldn't even be close. And he's a rookie. Calderon, despite his poor defense, would be better than Brooks, IT, or Jimmer. Not to mention Calderon shoots 45.6% from the three.
This team needs a true veteran PG to run the offense, and make sure everyone runs the play thats called. Players like Lillard, that can come in and play like a veteran are far and few between, so the best way to get one is to trade for one, or sign one in the offseason. The PG's we have, just aren't very effecient, and its hurting the entire team. Brooks may be the best we have, but thats hardly an endorsement. Being the best player at a position on the Kings doesn't earn you an all star berth.
Not to pick on him, but if you'll notice, I. Thomas is last assists per minute, and has the most turnovers per minute of the four listed. He was better last season, but right now, he resembles a SG more than a PG.
I. Thomas: 1 shot every 2.5 minutes he's on the court
A. Brooks: 1 shot every 3.1 minutes he's on the court
J. Fredette: 1 shot every 2.3 minutes he's on the court
T. Evans: 1 shot every 2.4 minutes he's on the court
M. Thronton: 1 shot every 2.1 minutes he's on the court
Yes, I realize that Thornton isn't a PG, but I thought I'd throw him in anyway for the hell of it. How about Cousins?
Cousins: 1 shot every 1.9 minutes he's on the court. Obviously Cousins shoots the ball more than anyone in the time he's on the court followed closely by Thornton. But thats not important. Whats important is how our PG's stack up against other more notable PG's in the league.
D. Lillard: 1 shot every 2.4 minutes on the court.
D Williams: 1 shot every 2.5 minutes on the court.
J. Calderon: 1 shot every 3.4 minutes on the court.
C. Paul: 1 shot every 2.3 minutes on the court.
K. Lowery: 1 shot every 2.5 minutes on the court.
J. Teague: 1 shot every 2.6 minutes on the court.
Well, if you compare our guys with those guys, they stack up fairly well as far as shots per minute go. Unfortunately, thats where it ends, and thats the major problem with the team. Lets take a look at assists per minute.
I. Thomas: 1 assist every 10.1 minutes on the court, and 1 turnover every 10.7 minutes on the court.
A. Brooks: 1 assist every 9.4 minutes on the court, and 1 turnover every 15.6 minutes on the court.
J. Fredette: 1 assist every 9.3 minutes on the court, and 1 turnover every 11.2 minutes on the court.
T. Evans: 1 assist every 9.1 minutes on the court, and 1 turnover every 13.9 minutes on the court.
Now lets compare them to the others we've listed.
D. Lillard: 1 assist every 5.8 minutes on the court, and 1 turnover every 12.1 minutes on the court
D. Williams: 1 assist every 4.4 minutes on the court, and 1 turnover every 12.3 minutes on the court
J. Calderon: 1 assist every 4.0 minutes on the court, and 1 turnover every 14.4 minutes on the court
C. Paul: 1 assist every 3.5 minutes on the court, and 1 turnover every 13.7 minutes on the court.
K. Lowery: 1 assist every 5.3 minutes on the court, and 1 turnover every 11.9 minutes on the court
J. Teague: 1 assist every 4.9 minutes on the court, and 1 turnover every 11.5 minutes on the court
None of our guys assists per minute comes close to the group I just listed, and thats a major problem for this team. Of our guys, Brooks turns the ball over the least, and is second to Tyreke in assists per minute, but no one blows me away as a good assist man. Lillard, if on our team, would be the best PG on the team immediately, and it wouldn't even be close. And he's a rookie. Calderon, despite his poor defense, would be better than Brooks, IT, or Jimmer. Not to mention Calderon shoots 45.6% from the three.
This team needs a true veteran PG to run the offense, and make sure everyone runs the play thats called. Players like Lillard, that can come in and play like a veteran are far and few between, so the best way to get one is to trade for one, or sign one in the offseason. The PG's we have, just aren't very effecient, and its hurting the entire team. Brooks may be the best we have, but thats hardly an endorsement. Being the best player at a position on the Kings doesn't earn you an all star berth.
Not to pick on him, but if you'll notice, I. Thomas is last assists per minute, and has the most turnovers per minute of the four listed. He was better last season, but right now, he resembles a SG more than a PG.
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The thing is, I did the shots/minute analysis too yesterday on a similar thoery, and the problem is that neither Isaiah, Jimmer, nor Aaron Brooks (who as I noted has cut the chucking down to 1 shot every 3.5min as a starter) are Damion Lillard, Deron Williams, or anybody else. You WANT those star guys to shoot that much. Our guys think they're stars, gun it like their stars, but they're not. They are 1 shot every 3 or 4 min guys. Support players. There's just no room for ANY player to be taking more than 1 shot every 3 min on this team except Cousins/Thornton/Reke. Not room on almost any strong team for that. You don't see Mima or OKC runnign around with a bunch of bench players/supprot guys chucking up 1 shot every 2 or 2.5 minutes. That sort of gunning is reserved for your top players.
We have too many guys who don't know or refuse to conform to their role. Teh GM intentionaly collected players of that ilk. The coahc gives the impression of being unwilling to reign them in. But its just not the way its done.
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I think you are stating exactly my point. We have players that are susposed to be PG's, that are shooting the ball like other good PG's in the league, but thats where it ends. Their not productive as PG's. SG's maybe, but who wants 5'11", and 5'9" SG's on their team. At least Jimmer is 6'2", but he's a long way from being ready to start in the NBA as a PG. I know you would probably disagree with me, but Calderon, despite his defensive liabilities, would help this team, simply be being a steady hand out on the court. The problem is, I don't want to pay him 10 mil a year. But Calderon would make life a lot easier for Tyreke and Cousins, and if you noted, he takes the fewest shots per minute of anyone I mentioned. And ironicly, he's a better shot than any of them from beyond the arc.
An issue with the PG circus is that really no one other than Reke has an established role in the backcourt atm. Jimmer and IT are not selfish players; the problem is that whenever they play, they feel like they have to put on the performance of their lives. For instance, if IT knew he was the unquestioned back-up PG and would receive 20 minutes on a normal night, I think we'd see a lot of the skills he showed last season as he could relax and just play his game.
I tend to agree. I don't know why we are talking about this when the team is so crappy. Does anyone think that the team would be a playoff contender if the players listed above play together most of the game? We have been coming up with these useless stats for the last three years, myself included, and it's not like the whole forum sees something the front office and coaching staff don't.
Bottom line is that IN MY OPINION the Kings are flawed. No matter how many good players they add to a flawed base the team will end up coming crashing down. Until you do something about that base we shouldn't even be thinking of trying to build on it.
Bottom line is that IN MY OPINION the Kings are flawed. No matter how many good players they add to a flawed base the team will end up coming crashing down. Until you do something about that base we shouldn't even be thinking of trying to build on it.
That's what happens when you're supposed to "win your minutes". It's a frikin stupid circular thing.
1. IT gets no playing time
2. IT gets playing time because Jimmer played a bad half
3. IT goes out and chucks to try to score, or forces a lot of passes
4. If successful, IT gets the call next game while Jimmer sits
5. Cycle repeats with Jimmer in IT's position
1. IT gets no playing time
2. IT gets playing time because Jimmer played a bad half
3. IT goes out and chucks to try to score, or forces a lot of passes
4. If successful, IT gets the call next game while Jimmer sits
5. Cycle repeats with Jimmer in IT's position
L
We continue to make excuses for these players. They are grown men and PROFESSIONALS. Yes, our coach sucks. Yes, our GM sucks. And, of course, the cherry on top is our wonderful owners! Despite all of that, I don't care. These guys are not very good! You can calculate all the stats you want and make more and more excuses but it won't matter. Look at our roster:
DMC -- talented but with baggage
Evans -- he is what he is now. Not good enough to be the #2 guy on a good team
Thornton -- a gunner. Dime a dozen in the NBA
JT -- 7-9th man on a good team
Salmons -- really?
Brooks -- really?
Cisco -- really?
Outlaw -- really?
Hayes -- really?
Jimmer -- really?
TRob -- wrong pick. Undersized PF and can't shoot SF
IT -- great 2nd round pick but a 9-11 guy on a good team
Seriously folks. Look at that roster. Be honest with yourself. I love the Kings. I am not a troll. I'm just a realist.
DMC -- talented but with baggage
Evans -- he is what he is now. Not good enough to be the #2 guy on a good team
Thornton -- a gunner. Dime a dozen in the NBA
JT -- 7-9th man on a good team
Salmons -- really?
Brooks -- really?
Cisco -- really?
Outlaw -- really?
Hayes -- really?
Jimmer -- really?
TRob -- wrong pick. Undersized PF and can't shoot SF
IT -- great 2nd round pick but a 9-11 guy on a good team
Seriously folks. Look at that roster. Be honest with yourself. I love the Kings. I am not a troll. I'm just a realist.
No, you're a panicked fan with a wildly tinted view of the talent around the league. I could run similar analysis for almost every losing team in the league. Even a few of the winners. We've got at least 6 main rotation players for almost any team on the league, and at least 4 guys who would start for large numbers of teams, and 2 others who Rick Adleman was able to use as starters on winning teams in Houston. All of them are in their primes. That's before we get to IT, who might make it 7.
The league is absolutley rife wiht stories of teams who underacheived until the right coach came along and snapped them into place, or the right steadying peice was suddenly added making everythig else snap to. We blew our last two lottery picks, last tow summer really. We have an effective talent base, but its the same one we had 2 years ago. No progress has been made because our front office made all the wrong moves in that time. Doesn't change the potential of the original quartet (Cousins/Evans/Reke/Thornton). But until the right piece or coach is added to help them, it doesn't work. (actually I am becoming convinced at this stage that Thornton may have to be moved as well to get that piece).
P.S. JT is the starting center for the Miami Heat. For these very Denver Nuggets. For the Hawks, Sixers...for a whole lot of teams better than us. He's also the fill in starter for the Warriors, and the top bench big for most of the teams for whom he would not start.
The league is absolutley rife wiht stories of teams who underacheived until the right coach came along and snapped them into place, or the right steadying peice was suddenly added making everythig else snap to. We blew our last two lottery picks, last tow summer really. We have an effective talent base, but its the same one we had 2 years ago. No progress has been made because our front office made all the wrong moves in that time. Doesn't change the potential of the original quartet (Cousins/Evans/Reke/Thornton). But until the right piece or coach is added to help them, it doesn't work. (actually I am becoming convinced at this stage that Thornton may have to be moved as well to get that piece).
P.S. JT is the starting center for the Miami Heat. For these very Denver Nuggets. For the Hawks, Sixers...for a whole lot of teams better than us. He's also the fill in starter for the Warriors, and the top bench big for most of the teams for whom he would not start.
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No, we have 4.
watch the league.
Tell me how great you think Malcom Lee and Kouta Koufos are aginst any team not named us. Oh, and those guys are going to the playoffs BTW, whihc gets back to my underacheivement point.
Oh, and to bring this back on topic, all of this we have 5 scrubs/they have 5 All Stars stuff fails to explain how our 5 scrubs starting lineup, as I detailed above, beat basically every other team's starting linuep we faced with them until tonight.
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