Beal:
Based on college work: 2nd
Based on basketball build/ballhandling: 31st
Overall: 5th
I'm really torn on Beal. Statistically, I think things will translate--guy can score, that's for sure, and rebound. But as a guard...hmmm...his unselfishness/PG skills, at least based on how he was used in Florida, was actually closer to a PF than it was to a SF, and he's a 6'4" guard. That could really put a damper on things. I really question whether he has the PG skills to gain staying power in the second chapter of his career, once the sparkplug scoring stuff dries up. To me, he just looks like a scorer and rebounder--those types have a few good years, gain a toxic contract, and because undersized scorers are en vogue, they get replaced by the next best thing--another 6'3" scorer who's younger comes into the draft and becomes better than said guard. That reads like Ben Gordon to me. He's NBA ready, but as a long term play, he's the sort of guy that becomes overrated quickly.
Harrison Barnes:
Based on college work: 19th
Based on basketball build/ballhandling: 33rd
Overall: 27th
Here's the thing about Barnes, and I know this is all subjective: I never believed in his ability to be a lottery pick. Not after his freshman year. Not after this year. Now that the data is stacking up, we're gaining a bit more certainty that well...he isn't what we thought he was. He isn't all that in college, and his pedigree as a shooter is overrated--35% and 33%, with low to mid 70s free throw shooting. Meh. But that's not really the major problem--I think, as far as the NBA is concerned, he operates way better as a smallball PF rather than as a prototypical SF. Yeah, I know, Kendall Marshall handles the ball and hogs all the assists, but Barnes also struggles to handle the ball (PF levels), and is way better served in the league doing things off the ball. Catch-and-shoot jumpers, off ball cuts for athletic plays, things like that. For a SF, that build is good, but I don't believe he's completely optimal for that position. As a PF, his build is alright for the league, nothing special. That's why I keep thinking his game is more of a late mid to late 1st round pick. If he can fine tune the three point shooting, I'm seeing Al Harrington, but for now, maybe more like Marvin Williams. A bit of a tweener.
Andre Drummond
Based on college work: 34th
Based on basketball build/ballhandling: 37th
Overall: 39th
Just not sold on this guy. I want to like him--don't forget, DeAndre Jordan had attitude problems in his one year at Tex-A&M and got drafted in the late 30s, like where I'm projecting Drummond throughout--but I don't really see it. In terms of skills, he's deficient, but he doesn't offset it with great rebounding despite the fact that he's bigger than everyone else. In fact he's poor, relative to size. Also, he's a center due to sheer size and lack of skills, obviously, but I charted all the draftable centers in this year's draft, and he's by far the most deficient in ballhandling. Like, really deficient, to the point where I think he's mostly a catch and dunk player, or catch and finish. Which is weird, given that he's done those behind-the-back passes at high school. I dunno. Offensively, man--it will just be scoring based on athleticism and sheer size, and nothing else. Really, the appeal is just the shotblocking. I'd be more interested if he were a 7-footer, given the lack of skills. As is, I'm just not sure about this guy. To me, there's a lot of red flags. Yeah, Bynum was raw, but the Lakers really threw the resources and I guess had Kobe to give Bynum some level of accountability, and even now he has those rebellious issues. Drummond's offense is just uber raw, the push shot is a turnoff, and I doubt he'd ever amount to anything offensively. I think if he's optimized properly with DeMarcus, as I said in another thread, we can shield the weaknesses and optimize the strengths, but I'm seeing an upside of DeAndre, at best, here.