Draft positioning thread
- Thread starter Big Cuz 15
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I heard an interesting suggestion the other day.
The worst team in the league doesn't get to participate in the lottery, which means that they are guaranteed the 4th pick in the draft.
Doing something like that would be used to prevent a team from completely tanking the season and ideally force the front office to at least field a competitive team.
Personally I think something like that should be done, but include all the bottom teams and have it based on winning %.
So any team under a particular winning % would not be eligible for the lottery, but would instead get the picks after the lottery based on the losing %.
So if we went with a 25% winning percentage: In a normal NBA season you'd need to win 21 games in order to be above 25%.
If there were 4 teams under 25%, those four teams would not be eligible for the lottery, and the worst of the bunch would be guaranteed the 5th pick in the draft.
I'm just throwing out 25% and at the moment only Charlotte has a winning % under 25% and Washington is the only other team under 30%.
When we had the worst record in the league the 2008-2009 season, our winning % was just over 20% at 20.7%
Our winning % this year can be no worse than 31.8%.
Anyway, it would give fans a reason to root for their celler dweller to pick up wins late in the season, and it would probably promote more competitive basketball by having the FO field more competitive teams.
Can you imagine a regular season finale between two teams where one is fighting for the 8th seed and the other is fighting to get the last win they need so they are eligible for the lottery? Probably far more interesting than what we'd see between two teams today.
I don't know what the % would be: 20%, 25%, 30%, 35% but it probably wouldn't be too difficult to look at the standings for the last 10-15 years, view the teams that finished at the bottom who made 'questionable' moves, and then establish some sort of baseline.
Just an odd thought as we go into the last two games of the season. We could finish anywhere between the 3rd worst or the 8th worst, and from a 'long-view' team perspective, getting better position in both the lottery and the draft by losing the last two games makes sense. But if the bar was set at 33%, then as a fan-base we'd be desparate to get at least one more win this season.
The worst team in the league doesn't get to participate in the lottery, which means that they are guaranteed the 4th pick in the draft.
Doing something like that would be used to prevent a team from completely tanking the season and ideally force the front office to at least field a competitive team.
Personally I think something like that should be done, but include all the bottom teams and have it based on winning %.
So any team under a particular winning % would not be eligible for the lottery, but would instead get the picks after the lottery based on the losing %.
So if we went with a 25% winning percentage: In a normal NBA season you'd need to win 21 games in order to be above 25%.
If there were 4 teams under 25%, those four teams would not be eligible for the lottery, and the worst of the bunch would be guaranteed the 5th pick in the draft.
I'm just throwing out 25% and at the moment only Charlotte has a winning % under 25% and Washington is the only other team under 30%.
When we had the worst record in the league the 2008-2009 season, our winning % was just over 20% at 20.7%
Our winning % this year can be no worse than 31.8%.
Anyway, it would give fans a reason to root for their celler dweller to pick up wins late in the season, and it would probably promote more competitive basketball by having the FO field more competitive teams.
Can you imagine a regular season finale between two teams where one is fighting for the 8th seed and the other is fighting to get the last win they need so they are eligible for the lottery? Probably far more interesting than what we'd see between two teams today.
I don't know what the % would be: 20%, 25%, 30%, 35% but it probably wouldn't be too difficult to look at the standings for the last 10-15 years, view the teams that finished at the bottom who made 'questionable' moves, and then establish some sort of baseline.
Just an odd thought as we go into the last two games of the season. We could finish anywhere between the 3rd worst or the 8th worst, and from a 'long-view' team perspective, getting better position in both the lottery and the draft by losing the last two games makes sense. But if the bar was set at 33%, then as a fan-base we'd be desparate to get at least one more win this season.
There seems to be a lot of angst these days about tanking - Henry Abbott on ESPN had a whole series of articles detailing what should be done about it. Sadly most, if not all of the ideas that were put forth there were terrible. The problem - the whole thing that seems to be lost in every anti-tanking discussion - is that the draft is designed the way it is in order to improve competitive balance. If you've got a bad team (like Charlotte) in a bad market (like Charlotte) where they can't attract free agents and they can't spend money, how do they get better? Either they become the lapdog for the league or you've got to help them out via some other mechanism, which is where the draft comes in.
I know that rewarding teams for being bad seems counterintuitive at times, but the alternate - punishing teams for being bad - is far worse and will eventually result in a stratification of haves and have nots when all the talent signs free agent contracts in the attractive markets and all the draft picks go to the attractive markets and the small markets get squeezed out of relevance.
If there's a way to identify "tanking" - actual literal playing below a team's capability, then I'm willing to listen. But until somebody can find a reliable way of separating "tanking" from "just plain being bad", then I'll vote every time to keep the lottery system in place in essentially the form it exists now. It's far more important to me to have a system in place that helps bad teams get young talent while denying it to established and successful teams than to punish the "cheater" that's gaming the system.
I know that rewarding teams for being bad seems counterintuitive at times, but the alternate - punishing teams for being bad - is far worse and will eventually result in a stratification of haves and have nots when all the talent signs free agent contracts in the attractive markets and all the draft picks go to the attractive markets and the small markets get squeezed out of relevance.
If there's a way to identify "tanking" - actual literal playing below a team's capability, then I'm willing to listen. But until somebody can find a reliable way of separating "tanking" from "just plain being bad", then I'll vote every time to keep the lottery system in place in essentially the form it exists now. It's far more important to me to have a system in place that helps bad teams get young talent while denying it to established and successful teams than to punish the "cheater" that's gaming the system.
I'd love to see something that takes into account the team's position in the standing, but also their winning percentages so that teams actually have an incentive to win. A simple formula: Team Position * Team Position * Wining Percentage = # of lottery balls would suffice.
Given the current standing, it would look like this:
Position Team W L % # Balls
30 Charlotte 7 57 0.109 98
29 Washington 18 46 0.281 236
28 New Orleans 20 44 0.313 245
27 Cleveland 21 43 0.328 239
27 Sacramento 21 43 0.328 239
25 New Jersey 22 43 0.338 211
24 Toronto 22 43 0.338 195
23 Golden State 23 41 0.359 190
22 Detroit 24 41 0.369 179
21 Minnesota 26 39 0.400 176
20 Portland 28 37 0.431 172
19 Milwaukee 31 33 0.484 175
18 Houston 33 32 0.508 165
17 Phoenix 33 31 0.516 149
Charlotte gets screwed for being so bad (intentionally or not), Washington takes a bit of a hit, the other teams get lottery balls fairly evenly matched to their position and winning percentages.
Given the current standing, it would look like this:
Position Team W L % # Balls
30 Charlotte 7 57 0.109 98
29 Washington 18 46 0.281 236
28 New Orleans 20 44 0.313 245
27 Cleveland 21 43 0.328 239
27 Sacramento 21 43 0.328 239
25 New Jersey 22 43 0.338 211
24 Toronto 22 43 0.338 195
23 Golden State 23 41 0.359 190
22 Detroit 24 41 0.369 179
21 Minnesota 26 39 0.400 176
20 Portland 28 37 0.431 172
19 Milwaukee 31 33 0.484 175
18 Houston 33 32 0.508 165
17 Phoenix 33 31 0.516 149
Charlotte gets screwed for being so bad (intentionally or not), Washington takes a bit of a hit, the other teams get lottery balls fairly evenly matched to their position and winning percentages.
the thing about the lottery system is that people seem to ignore the NBA with its lottery system is the ONLY league which is already doing something about tanking. Look at the other leagues? All just reverse order of record. That's the whle reason the lottery was put in, to prevent tanking (the inspiration was an egregious and obvious case in the mid80-s that netted Houston Hakeem Olajuwon).
But the problem is that getting those top picks is FAR more important in the NBA than any other league (which is why tanking is such a threat in the NBA). And the worse you dicker with a straight reverse order draft, the greater the chances you create a permanent underclass of bad teams. The draft is the great renewer. Its how you get good when you're bad. Take that away, and small market teams like ourselves might as well be disbanded. No major free agent will ever sign in Sacto. If you get pushed away from the top draft picks you will never have the talent to trade for one. So you would pretty much just be a second class citizen.
But the problem is that getting those top picks is FAR more important in the NBA than any other league (which is why tanking is such a threat in the NBA). And the worse you dicker with a straight reverse order draft, the greater the chances you create a permanent underclass of bad teams. The draft is the great renewer. Its how you get good when you're bad. Take that away, and small market teams like ourselves might as well be disbanded. No major free agent will ever sign in Sacto. If you get pushed away from the top draft picks you will never have the talent to trade for one. So you would pretty much just be a second class citizen.
The problem with the lottery as it is, and with most suggested fixes, is that its usually a one size fits all scenario. The whole point of the draft is to help the worse teams become better. Thusly, the worse go first, and the best go last. But due to what appeared to be tanking a couple of times, the lottery was born with the idea of discouraging tanking. Judging by what I've seen over the last 9 or 10 years, I don't think the lottery is working the way it was intended. First, I think its apparent that teams are still tanking, so that part hasn't worked. Secondly, its ended up penalizing teams that were legitimately bad. Such as the Kings a few years ago. So in that case, its not working on two fronts. It is in fact a bad system.
Since I'm not a gambler, I'm not in favor of a system that involves luck. Luck to move from a possible 7th spot to the first spot, and luck to just stay in the deserved 1st spot. I think a better system, would be to go back to the original system, but to have a 4 or 5 man board that governs the draft. We have ref's in the game, so why not have ref's involved in the lottery. Not literally, but figuratively. It would be the boards responsibility to oversee the draft and make determinations as to whether a team is intentionally losing games on purpose. Simple rules could apply. Bad teams would have to play their best players unless injuried. Injuries would have to be verified by league doctors. Sudden strange starting lineups or rotations would be questioned.
If indeed the board decided that a team appeared to be losing games on purpose, the evidence would be brought before the commissioner and he would rule one way or the other. If he ruled that the team was guilty, that team would be fined a huge sum of money, and it would move to the end of the first round. This might not be perfect, but it would discourage a team from tanking, and it would ensure that deserving teams would be picking first. Now it wouldn't prevent a team from depleting the roster prior to the start of the season (Bobcats), but in that instance, the team is in such a giant hole, it needs the top pick to start digging its way out. I doubt most teams would take this approach. In short, I'm for any system that makes sure that the genuinely worse team in the league gets the 1st pick in the draft.
Since I'm not a gambler, I'm not in favor of a system that involves luck. Luck to move from a possible 7th spot to the first spot, and luck to just stay in the deserved 1st spot. I think a better system, would be to go back to the original system, but to have a 4 or 5 man board that governs the draft. We have ref's in the game, so why not have ref's involved in the lottery. Not literally, but figuratively. It would be the boards responsibility to oversee the draft and make determinations as to whether a team is intentionally losing games on purpose. Simple rules could apply. Bad teams would have to play their best players unless injuried. Injuries would have to be verified by league doctors. Sudden strange starting lineups or rotations would be questioned.
If indeed the board decided that a team appeared to be losing games on purpose, the evidence would be brought before the commissioner and he would rule one way or the other. If he ruled that the team was guilty, that team would be fined a huge sum of money, and it would move to the end of the first round. This might not be perfect, but it would discourage a team from tanking, and it would ensure that deserving teams would be picking first. Now it wouldn't prevent a team from depleting the roster prior to the start of the season (Bobcats), but in that instance, the team is in such a giant hole, it needs the top pick to start digging its way out. I doubt most teams would take this approach. In short, I'm for any system that makes sure that the genuinely worse team in the league gets the 1st pick in the draft.
This gives Charlotte the least number of lotto combos, and by a long shot. This should never, ever happen. Charlotte is just plain bad, and if you penalize them for it, they'll never improve. Unless you're going to introduce European soccer style "relegation", there's really no benefit to actively trying to hurt the worst teams in the league. Meanwhile, the rest of the lottery is so even, that it's almost the same as the "envelope" lottery where every team had the same chance. This gives on-the-rise teams who will make the playoffs next year nearly the same chance to win a top pick as the worst teams in the league. The NBA moved away from this model for a reason.
Almost makes me want to go to a top (bottom?) 3 in a lottery and the rest in reverse order of your record type system. I think the worst team should have no worse than a 1/3 chance of winning and no chance of falling to number 4.
But I also like Baja's ideas on some oversight to prevent "tanking" - however I wonder if that would be realistic and workable. Probably would with some thought and controls established. If such a system were in place, I would be for a straight "reverse record" order for picks.
But I also like Baja's ideas on some oversight to prevent "tanking" - however I wonder if that would be realistic and workable. Probably would with some thought and controls established. If such a system were in place, I would be for a straight "reverse record" order for picks.
Baja, I understand your point but I think it's impossible to create. How do you judge if a team is tanking on purpose or not? There are too many subjective elements in this judgement. Can you imagine the reaction of a team and its fans if someone just decides they are tanking on purpose and they are not getting the first pick? No way it can work.
Charlotte is bad, it's not tanking, is just bad. But it is so bad for a reason. MJ decided to trade all the good players they had, for nothing in return. They put themselves in this situation. So, is this tanking by the owner? How do you judge that?
I believe that the system made by Jose could be good. It's not perfect of course, but with some changes it could be interesting.
Charlotte is bad, it's not tanking, is just bad. But it is so bad for a reason. MJ decided to trade all the good players they had, for nothing in return. They put themselves in this situation. So, is this tanking by the owner? How do you judge that?
I believe that the system made by Jose could be good. It's not perfect of course, but with some changes it could be interesting.
Can definitely be tweaked. Could be weighted by the same factors as the current lottery: 25%, 19.9%, etc... For example, if the formula became:
(Position * Position * winning percentage * weight) / 10
then we have:
Pos Team W L WP Weight #Balls % for #1
30 Charlotte 7 57 0.109 25 245 12.5
29 Washington 18 46 0.281 19.9 470 24.0
28 NewOrleans 20 44 0.313 15.6 383 19.6
27 Cleveland 21 43 0.328 11.9 285 14.6
27 Sacramento 21 43 0.328 8.8 210 10.7
25 NewJersey 22 43 0.338 6.4 135 6.9
24 Toronto 22 43 0.338 4.3 84 4.3
23 GoldenState 23 41 0.359 2.8 53 2.7
22 Detroit 24 41 0.369 1.7 30 1.5
21 Minnesota 26 39 0.4 1.1 19 1.0
20 Portland 28 37 0.431 0.8 14 0.7
19 Milwaukee 31 33 0.484 0.7 12 0.6
18 Houston 33 32 0.508 0.6 10 0.5
17 Phoenix 33 31 0.516 0.5 7 0.4
Much closer to the current system, but still weithging in the winning percentages so that there is still some incentive to win games.
Sorry for the bad format - I'll figure out how to post a table correctly
(Position * Position * winning percentage * weight) / 10
then we have:
Pos Team W L WP Weight #Balls % for #1
30 Charlotte 7 57 0.109 25 245 12.5
29 Washington 18 46 0.281 19.9 470 24.0
28 NewOrleans 20 44 0.313 15.6 383 19.6
27 Cleveland 21 43 0.328 11.9 285 14.6
27 Sacramento 21 43 0.328 8.8 210 10.7
25 NewJersey 22 43 0.338 6.4 135 6.9
24 Toronto 22 43 0.338 4.3 84 4.3
23 GoldenState 23 41 0.359 2.8 53 2.7
22 Detroit 24 41 0.369 1.7 30 1.5
21 Minnesota 26 39 0.4 1.1 19 1.0
20 Portland 28 37 0.431 0.8 14 0.7
19 Milwaukee 31 33 0.484 0.7 12 0.6
18 Houston 33 32 0.508 0.6 10 0.5
17 Phoenix 33 31 0.516 0.5 7 0.4
Much closer to the current system, but still weithging in the winning percentages so that there is still some incentive to win games.
Sorry for the bad format - I'll figure out how to post a table correctly
Here's my idea for the lottery (anti-tanking):
After 62 games, the order is locked in. (in an 82 game regular season)
This will prevent teams like the Warriors (this year) completely going for the TANK. It will also promote lotto teams to go for more wins at the end of the year without having a harsh penalty for winning to the franchise.
Only stipulation would be if a team is locked in as a lotto team, and then makes the playoffs, obviously they would not be in the lotto.
Keep the Lotto Balls.
After 62 games, the order is locked in. (in an 82 game regular season)
This will prevent teams like the Warriors (this year) completely going for the TANK. It will also promote lotto teams to go for more wins at the end of the year without having a harsh penalty for winning to the franchise.
Only stipulation would be if a team is locked in as a lotto team, and then makes the playoffs, obviously they would not be in the lotto.
Keep the Lotto Balls.
My idea for the lottery would be to double shuffle the deck... do 2 drawings of the ping pong balls. For the first drawing, use the usual odds as determined now for teams records to move into the first 3 spots... and then place teams in their new order of finish, and apply the same structure of odds accordingly for the final drawing to get draft order. This way another team can move up to take the best odds as well as have better odds for staying up top before the main drawing...
In other words... Here are the odds now according to finish:
25%
19.9%
15.6%
10.4%
10.3%
5.4%
5.3%
2.8%
1.7%
1.1%
.8%
.7%
.6%
.5%
A double lotto drawing would let lower teams move into top odds, but also could get bumped again in the second round prevent teams from tanking because of the unknown.
In other words... Here are the odds now according to finish:
25%
19.9%
15.6%
10.4%
10.3%
5.4%
5.3%
2.8%
1.7%
1.1%
.8%
.7%
.6%
.5%
A double lotto drawing would let lower teams move into top odds, but also could get bumped again in the second round prevent teams from tanking because of the unknown.
I believe I address the Bobcats situation in my post. And yes, I agree, the Bobcats are really that bad and they're not tanking. But I disagree completely that you can't have a system like that. You would have to make a convincing case to prove someone is tanking. But if we as fans can watch from afar, and tell that someone is tanking the season, it wouldn't be that hard to make a case if you can get up close and personal. The major difference would be the result. If your a bad team, your going to do everything you can to walk the straight and narrow in fear fo being accused of tanking. So the result would probably be that no one would tank.
The problem I have with Jose's is that it gives the team with the worse record less of a chance at the 1st spot than just about everyone else, which means were assuming that the team is tanking. Which in the case of the Bobcats, isn't true in my opinion. The whole idea of the draft is to make the worse teams better. With this system, the worse team would probably never get the 1st pick. How is that fair?
I've never been a fan of making a law or a rule that affects everyone, because of the dishonesty of a couple of people. If you think someone cheated, and you can prove it, then punish them. But don't punish everyone because of their mistakes.
The problem I have with Jose's is that it gives the team with the worse record less of a chance at the 1st spot than just about everyone else, which means were assuming that the team is tanking. Which in the case of the Bobcats, isn't true in my opinion. The whole idea of the draft is to make the worse teams better. With this system, the worse team would probably never get the 1st pick. How is that fair?
I've never been a fan of making a law or a rule that affects everyone, because of the dishonesty of a couple of people. If you think someone cheated, and you can prove it, then punish them. But don't punish everyone because of their mistakes.
Well.... It appears as though Kings could very well end up in a 3 way tie with Cleveland and either New Jersey or Toronto. 3 of those teams (Kings, Cavs and 1 other) will likely end up with a 22-44 record. The good news, is either Toronto or New Jersey is going to have 23 wins, so we don't need to worry about them. Worst case scenario we end up at #9 overall and take Terrence Jones.
And I love how Grant and Jerry are doing their annual rant about tanking, and how you owe it to the fans and how you can't receover from a losing philosophy etc. etc.
Meanwhie tonight Miami loses to Boston 66-78 with a starting lineup of Battier, Haslem, Pittman, Miller and Chalmers, who find it hard to score against the mighty lineup Boston throws out there of Pierce, Bass, Hollins, Pavlovic and Bradley. Really going all out for the fans and stuff.
Meanwhie tonight Miami loses to Boston 66-78 with a starting lineup of Battier, Haslem, Pittman, Miller and Chalmers, who find it hard to score against the mighty lineup Boston throws out there of Pierce, Bass, Hollins, Pavlovic and Bradley. Really going all out for the fans and stuff.
Detroito 24 41 0.369 24.5 19-28 4-11 17-15 7-26 3-7 L 1
Golden Stateo 23 42 0.359 25.0 16-30 7-8 12-19 11-22 2-8 W 1
New Jerseyo 22 43 0.338 26.5 16-31 5-8 9-24 13-19 3-7 L 5
Torontoo 22 43 0.338 26.5 14-33 6-8 12-20 10-23 2-8 L 4
Clevelando 21 43 0.328 27.0 13-33 3-11 11-21 10-22 3-7 L 2
Sacramentoo 21 44 0.323 27.5 15-32 2-10 15-17 6-27 2-8 L 1
New Orleanso 21 44 0.313 28.0 13-33 3-10 11-22 9-22 6-4 L 1
Washingtono 18 46 0.281 30.0 14-32 6-7 10-22 8-24 6-4 W 4
Charlotteo 7 57 0.109 41.0 5-41 1-13 4-28 3-29 0-10 L 21
3 way tie for third. if cleveland comes through tomorrow we will be tied w/ third w/ NO
Golden Stateo 23 42 0.359 25.0 16-30 7-8 12-19 11-22 2-8 W 1
New Jerseyo 22 43 0.338 26.5 16-31 5-8 9-24 13-19 3-7 L 5
Torontoo 22 43 0.338 26.5 14-33 6-8 12-20 10-23 2-8 L 4
Clevelando 21 43 0.328 27.0 13-33 3-11 11-21 10-22 3-7 L 2
Sacramentoo 21 44 0.323 27.5 15-32 2-10 15-17 6-27 2-8 L 1
New Orleanso 21 44 0.313 28.0 13-33 3-10 11-22 9-22 6-4 L 1
Washingtono 18 46 0.281 30.0 14-32 6-7 10-22 8-24 6-4 W 4
Charlotteo 7 57 0.109 41.0 5-41 1-13 4-28 3-29 0-10 L 21
3 way tie for third. if cleveland comes through tomorrow we will be tied w/ third w/ NO
I thought we played really well tonight, but the OKC bench put us away. Meanwhile the Hornets came back from 7 down with under 3 minutes to go against the superlatively-tanking Warriors to win and move into a tie with us. With our loss, the Warriors fall out of contention to tie us. Due to the eventual Nets-Raptors matchup, our worst case scenario is now a tie for 5/6 with the loser of that game.
Tomorrow there is only one interesting game, where Cleveland hosts the Wizards, who have guaranteed the #2 slot. Washington has no reason to lose, but is obviously not playing very well so Cleveland has a good chance to pull this out.
Oddly enough, the only way we can end up NOT in a tie is if we lose, the Hornets win, and Cleveland wins at least one, where we take 3rd place by ourselves. Otherwise, we'll end up tied 3/4, 3/4/5, 3/4/5/6, 4/5/6, or 5/6.
Kings record: 21-44
Kings max wins: 22
Possible lottery position: 3-t5/6
Minimum lottery combos: 75
Possible draft range: 1-9
Current Competition (teams in red will finish below us):
1. Charlotte Bobcats (7-57)
2. Washington Wizards (18-46)
t3. Sacramento Kings (21-44, vs LAL)
t3. New Orleans Hornets (21-44, @HOU)
5. Cleveland Cavaliers (21-43, vs WAS, @CHI)
t6. Toronto Raptors (22-43, vs NJN)
t6. New Jersey Nets (22-43, @TOR)
Tomorrow there is only one interesting game, where Cleveland hosts the Wizards, who have guaranteed the #2 slot. Washington has no reason to lose, but is obviously not playing very well so Cleveland has a good chance to pull this out.
Oddly enough, the only way we can end up NOT in a tie is if we lose, the Hornets win, and Cleveland wins at least one, where we take 3rd place by ourselves. Otherwise, we'll end up tied 3/4, 3/4/5, 3/4/5/6, 4/5/6, or 5/6.
Kings record: 21-44
Kings max wins: 22
Possible lottery position: 3-t5/6
Minimum lottery combos: 75
Possible draft range: 1-9
Current Competition (teams in red will finish below us):
1. Charlotte Bobcats (7-57)
2. Washington Wizards (18-46)
t3. Sacramento Kings (21-44, vs LAL)
t3. New Orleans Hornets (21-44, @HOU)
5. Cleveland Cavaliers (21-43, vs WAS, @CHI)
t6. Toronto Raptors (22-43, vs NJN)
t6. New Jersey Nets (22-43, @TOR)
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