Prospect watch 2011

I've done a few more evaluations of the following players:

Bismack Biyombo just looks like a defensive freak of nature right now, at only 18 years old. He goes after every shot around him and his ability to make defensive plays is in the top three in this draft; he's also a very good rebounder. He produces at a high level overseas too, so I think his ability to rebound and block shots is very sustainable--I don't think he has much bust potential defensively at all, and that just ups the intrigue as teams try to build around elite defensive anchors. However, at 6'9" 240 he doesn't have quite the ideal build to play taller PFs or Cs in this league, but I think he can produce like Serge Ibaka on this end of the floor. On the offensive side he's just a wreck right now; he has zero shooting ability and zero ballhandling ability, and while he might never become good on this end, he should be quite better in the NBA because he's shown a large ability to draw fouls. His game is all athleticism at this stage of the game, but he has enough skill/productivity so that he probably won't go the way of say, Hasheem Thabeet or Saer Sene (both of whom are taller but also more unskilled). Given his lack of great height and lack of skills offensively (which the team that drafts him will need to account him), I'm not seeing super star player, but the upside could be a defensive version of Serge Ibaka (I'm not sure if he can be as good as Ibaka overall, and Ibaka is underrated). In a weak draft of defensive players he'd probably go in the mid lottery regardless of the fact that he came so late in the draft.

Euro counterpart Giorgi Shermadini also looks like a very bad offensive player with zero handles/court vision at this stage, but over time he can actually make a surprise impact on this end in the NBA--he's a respectable enough shooter and can draw fouls quite well. He's also good at making defensive plays, but has a nagging tendency to get into foul trouble. For someone his height and weight (7'1" 248), he's also a super bad rebounder. He actually has little bust potential, but he only has one surefire thing that will translate to the NBA--contesting shots, although I do think he can be an OK offensive contributor eventually (but it's just potential at this stage). Size never goes out of style in the NBA, but there have been many Euro mammoths that have flamed out, and Shermadini has enough flaws--having little rebounding, zero vision and foul problems--that he can easily irk many of his coaches which will prevent a lack of playing time. The upside, and it's a stretch, is probably Steven Hunter, and that's not saying much at all.

Shifting back to American players, Ben Hansbrough (Psycho T's bro) unfortunately looks like a significantly better college player than a NBA player. It's unfortunate, because he's got a large swath of skills offensively--he's a very good scorer and a good shooter, and his offense may actually look better in the NBA as he can draw fouls and shoot from deep quite consistently. On top of that, he's highly unselfish and has essentially pure PG skills, and his very good scoring/passing package at 6'3" 200 makes him look like an optimal PG in this league. The problem is he appears to be somewhat raw around the edges, and there's actually quite a bit of bust potential with him--his offensive construct should look better, but his lack of college competition might also hold him back. At the end, I think he'll split the difference and become a Beno Udrih-type offensively (as the upside). Defensively, like Udrih, he just lacks the athleticism to compete--he's bottom ten in making defensive plays and also struggles to board badly, and he might be investing his energy on the offensive side of the court as he rarely fouls. He'll need to be hidden on this end. Overall, his game is interesting on the offensive side of the court but there's some real skepticism--he'll probably be a 35-40s 2nd round flyer, as said, with a Beno Udrih type upside.

Nikola Vucevic is also a real mixed case, and I really think he's a way better player in college than in the NBA offensively. He can shoot the ball which is an asset at 6'10", but his offensive construct is incredibly mechanical which doesn't bode well for him at the league at all. Unlike most shooters, however, he also appears to be a excellent rebounder, which is a bit surprising. The shooting and rebounding with the height appear to be facade selling points for him; his offense should suffer drastically in the league and he has slight bust potential, so he might not reach his rebounding upside (he might merely be an slightly above average rebounder at the end). He doesn't have any truly severe weaknesses, but quite a bit of his game might not translate to the league, so he's probably a 45-60 pick in the 2nd. He's a zero upside player and he just might not be good enough for the league.

Ashton Gibbs follows the long line of undersized shooters attempting to make it to the league. Gibbs' game is utterly predictable--he can really really shoot the basketball, and all he does is shoot threes--and thus his offensive potential for the league is very high, since he knows his role and teams can always use certified three point shooting. At the same token, however, he might not be as good as advertised either--based on his body of work, there's some bust potential which might lower his shooting effectiveness in the league. He essentially won't contribute elsewhere--at 6'2" Gibbs passes the ball like a shooting guard, and he's massively overmatched as an athlete--he held the distinction of being the worst draftee in making defensive plays (out of 109 players), and he's also 3rd from the bottom in rebounding. Like Doron Lamb, his lack of contributions on the non-offensive side is really his bane and would put a severe cap in his minutes, and while his shooting appears very good there's some skepticism whether he can succeed in that role. He's a 1-D player with slight bust potential in that role, and the fact that he's undersized gives him a high chance to be undrafted when all's said and done.

Greg Smith out of Fresno State appears to be decent at making defensive plays, but he's a bit foul prone as well. He's also got surprisingly decent court vision for a 6'10" 250 C as well. But that's pretty much the extent of it, and even these skills might not translate because he's not significant bust potential, primarily stemming from his bad competition. Smith's offense is terrible and will look even worse in the NBA, as he has zero shooting ability and his offensive construct is a bit mechanical. He's also a very bad rebounder for a big man. He's a limited upside player, but he should've stayed in college in the off chance that he could improve his stock. He has no certified NBA skill and a slew of weaknesses in offense/rebounding, so he's very likely to be undrafted.

Finally, Isaiah Thomas can be a good scorer in this league (should be better than in college) because he diversifies his shot selection, but he's a very middling shooter and there's some bust potential based on his college body of work so he'll probably just be a typical scorer-type in the league. Thomas actually can pass the ball quite well, and he has decent PG skills, which helps given how small he is at 5'8". Thomas is just overmatched defensively and struggles to board, but more surprising is that with his speed he makes very few defensive plays, which is really unfortunate. He rarely fouls and appears to conserve his energy for offense. Personally, I hate sub-6 feet guards who can't shoot the ball well, so I have a hard time believing that Thomas can succeed in the league--he's a scorer/passer hybrid who does them well at the college level, but there's slight bust potential with respect to that, and on defense he's severely undersized, overmatched and there might be motivation problems as well. He's far from athletic par with Nate Robinson and doesn't even shoot the ball as well as Nate Rob--at the end, he'll probably be a 52-undrafted pick.
 
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bajaden

Hall of Famer
I'm a little more positive on Smith than you are. Its a shame he couldn't have been in a better program. He's just an average athlete, but he has pretty good hops and I like that he shoots with either hand in the post. But your right, he's pretty raw offensively. Defensively he's not terrible, and I think with some work, he could pretty decent. He's only 19 years old, so I'm not ready to write him off. From everything I've read about him, he has a great work ethic.

Nikola Vucevic I like quite a bit. He's someone that I wouldn't mind taking in the second round. He's a good rebounder, and he can shoot the ball. He handles the ball fairly well for a big, and he plays with a little bit of an edge, which I like. He needs to get stronger, and polish his post game more, but I think the kid has some upside. I have him going in the top third of the second round.

Issiah Thomas is going to have a rough time in the NBA. Every single time I saw a game where the other team put a taller, very good defensive player on him, he simply disappeared. He's not as quick as he appears when he's guarded by someone thats just as quick. He can't be more than 5'7" without shoes, if that. His outside shot is extremely inconsistent. He may be one of these guys that spends time in europe or in the D league for a couple of years and then finally finds a nitch in the NBA.

In regards to Biyombo. I'll leave that to Petrie. But personally short term wonders right before the draft scare me to death. I watched Sene play in the exact all star game as Biyombo, probably 5 or so years ago. And put on a very similar performance, blocking a ton of shots and grabbing a ton of rebounds. An Sene was 7 feet tall. Sene was just as good an athlete as Biyombo, and just as unskilled offensively He got himself drafted in the lottery, and guess what, he was a bust. I'm by no means saying Biyombo will be a bust. But if you look at the history of international players over the years, expecially those that are pure athleticism, there are a lot more busts than there are successes. Tim Duncan is a great player, not because he was an athletic freak, but because he was a very skilled player, and fundamentally sound.

As I said, I'll leave that one to Petrie. If he's another Ibaka, then grab him and don't look back. But in my opinion, Ibaka is the exception and not the rule.
 
The way Dirk is killing the Lakers in this series. I wouldn't mind the Kings taking Motiejunas in this draft. If Biyombo is getting raves with just his Nike Hoop Summit game. They should probably re-watch the 2009 Summit where Motie was playing against better USA big men like our own Demarcus Cousins.

If he pans out to his potential he and Cousins down low would be something special. Probably something like if Shaq(prime) and Dirk played for the same team.
 
Another season of college basketball is starting and it seems like we will have another high pick so lets start talking about some of our favorite prospects.

Honeycutt is looking really solid against Pepperdine right now. I think he's a really solid prospect especially if we end up somewhere in the late lottery. We all know the history of recent UCLA players coming out being really good all around players, especially on the defensive end.
I think this team really needs a good PG that can pass well. I think getting Steve Nash would put this team in the playoffs and who knows how far. Barring that I want Irving or Freddette in the draft.
 
I actually think Kyle Singler is going to turn into a pretty solid pro. Much better than some of the players taken in front of him. He's got a little Chase Budinger/ Mike Miller in him .. plus he should be able to rebound better than both of those guys, and it also helps that he has a little bit of a post game.

He's not going to be an animal on defense, but I think he'll be ok. He could struggle against the faster SF's but he'll be able to hold his own with some of the bulkier/stronger ones.

If we do some sort of Casspi trade along with signing AK or Prince, I wouldnt mind seeing us take him with our second rounder and have him battle Donte for the backup 3 minutes. I also think he brings some pretty good intangibles .. proven winner, good guy, ect ..
 
The problem with Biyombo is not the fear that he's a certified bust, but whether his lack of offense (possibly playing 4-on-5 on that end of the court) will put a cap in his minutes and cement the feeling that he'll be a bust early on. There's always a steep learning curve with young players, and really it's hard to expect early on that his defense will more than make up for his offensive shortcomings. That's why there's the term "project"--wait two to possibly four years, see if they've made progress, however large or even incremental. I personally think that Biyombo's is way more than NBA ready at this stage, and he'll turn heads early on with that. If he doesn't though and is drafted high, yeah, then those "bust" chants will begin.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
The problem with Biyombo is not the fear that he's a certified bust, but whether his lack of offense (possibly playing 4-on-5 on that end of the court) will put a cap in his minutes and cement the feeling that he'll be a bust early on. There's always a steep learning curve with young players, and really it's hard to expect early on that his defense will more than make up for his offensive shortcomings. That's why there's the term "project"--wait two to possibly four years, see if they've made progress, however large or even incremental. I personally think that Biyombo's is way more than NBA ready at this stage, and he'll turn heads early on with that. If he doesn't though and is drafted high, yeah, then those "bust" chants will begin.
You could be right about Biyombo. I honestly have no idea. My problem is, I seriously don't know what anyone that likes him is basing it on, other than one game, that most on this fourm didn't even see. Now anyone thats actually seen him play internationally, thats a different story, and my hats off to you. Last year I watched DeMarcus Cousins play in over 25 games. After that many games, I felt pretty confident I could make a pretty good estimate of what kind of player he'd turn out to be in the NBA.

I've seen Biyombo play in one game! And it was an all star game for gods sake, which for all intents and purposes is almost meaningless. Little defense is played in those games, and that fact alone made Biyombo stand out. So personally, I can't say he'll be a bust, or, that he'll be the next Ibaka. I simply don't know. But from what little I saw of him, I believe that offensively, he's going to be a project. I also have no idea what his basketball IQ is. Probably not great considering the short period of time he's been play organized basketball. However, that didn't stop Olajuwon from being great.

I know everyone wants to strike gold. And the Kings have been lucky in doing that the last two years. I know a lot of people want to just write off this pick, as of little importance. Something they wouldn't be doing if we didn't already have Evans and Cousins. So to my mind, having them, doesn't lessen the value of the pick. So then the question is, are we in a position to take a gamble on a player like Biyombo, on the chance of striking gold? Maybe so, I don't know.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
I actually think Kyle Singler is going to turn into a pretty solid pro. Much better than some of the players taken in front of him. He's got a little Chase Budinger/ Mike Miller in him .. plus he should be able to rebound better than both of those guys, and it also helps that he has a little bit of a post game.

He's not going to be an animal on defense, but I think he'll be ok. He could struggle against the faster SF's but he'll be able to hold his own with some of the bulkier/stronger ones.

If we do some sort of Casspi trade along with signing AK or Prince, I wouldnt mind seeing us take him with our second rounder and have him battle Donte for the backup 3 minutes. I also think he brings some pretty good intangibles .. proven winner, good guy, ect ..
Before I get into Singler, my greatest fear with him, is that he's more a product of the system, than he is his abilities. I've seen Singler play a lot over the last few years. On the Duke team, he's a productive player. I have serious reservations if his game can translate to the NBA where your exposed more to isolation situations both offensively and defensively. Budinger is ten times the athlete that Singler is. There's no comparison between the two. Believe it or not, Miller was a better athlete when he came into the league, and he's a better shooter, ballhandler, and passer. Once again, I see no comparison.

Every game this year where Singler had a good defender on him, he struggled big time. I honestly don't think he'll be able to create his own shot in the NBA. Which is OK. There are a lot of players that can't create their own shot. I see Singler as a spot up shooter, much the same way I see Diebler of Ohio St., and Diebler is a better athlete than Singler, and a better passer and ballhandler.

Now the good things. Singler is a very smart basketball player with a high basketball IQ. He's also a tough kid that will battle you with everything he has. Although, I wouldn't call him a good rebounder, he'll get in and battle for boards. Defensively he does a decent to good job in the team defense concept. But in the NBA in a one on one situation against some of the better and quick SF's in the NBA, he'll have a very rough time if he doesn't get help.

The bottom line is that I think Singler has made the most of his abilities, and he may be able to find a spot on a roster somewhere in a role capacity. Especially if he can improve his spot up shooting, and get better at coming off screens. His best bet might be to improve his over strength and make himself into a stretch forward, which is really what he was at Duke.

I'll finish by saying that I watched him play a lot this year because I was paying particular attention to SF's. The only improvement I saw from the previous year was he passed the ball better. His rebounding was actually a little worse. It doesn't bode well for a player that shows little improvement from year to year in college. Its usually an indication that he has little upside left.
 
Before I get into Singler, my greatest fear with him, is that he's more a product of the system, than he is his abilities. I've seen Singler play a lot over the last few years. On the Duke team, he's a productive player. I have serious reservations if his game can translate to the NBA where your exposed more to isolation situations both offensively and defensively. Budinger is ten times the athlete that Singler is. There's no comparison between the two. Believe it or not, Miller was a better athlete when he came into the league, and he's a better shooter, ballhandler, and passer. Once again, I see no comparison.

Every game this year where Singler had a good defender on him, he struggled big time. I honestly don't think he'll be able to create his own shot in the NBA. Which is OK. There are a lot of players that can't create their own shot. I see Singler as a spot up shooter, much the same way I see Diebler of Ohio St., and Diebler is a better athlete than Singler, and a better passer and ballhandler.

Now the good things. Singler is a very smart basketball player with a high basketball IQ. He's also a tough kid that will battle you with everything he has. Although, I wouldn't call him a good rebounder, he'll get in and battle for boards. Defensively he does a decent to good job in the team defense concept. But in the NBA in a one on one situation against some of the better and quick SF's in the NBA, he'll have a very rough time if he doesn't get help.

The bottom line is that I think Singler has made the most of his abilities, and he may be able to find a spot on a roster somewhere in a role capacity. Especially if he can improve his spot up shooting, and get better at coming off screens. His best bet might be to improve his over strength and make himself into a stretch forward, which is really what he was at Duke.

I'll finish by saying that I watched him play a lot this year because I was paying particular attention to SF's. The only improvement I saw from the previous year was he passed the ball better. His rebounding was actually a little worse. It doesn't bode well for a player that shows little improvement from year to year in college. Its usually an indication that he has little upside left.
All fair points, but I DO think he is a worker, and while he is old for a potential draft pick, I think he can improve his jumper to Miller-Budinger level. Will he? I dont know, but it wont be because he didnt try.

I will say I think I believe in his ball handling a little more than you do, and what he doesnt have in athleticism I think he can make up in craftyness/determination.

And I could be way off base here, but as good as that Duke team was ... It was kind of a strange team to be productive on. You had Irving before he was hurt and then Nolan Smith who where two very ball dominant guards. Then they had the Plumlee brothers along with Ryan Kelly getting a lot of post touches ... and Seth Curry got his fair share of jump shots too .. I almost felt like they forgot about Singler at times... Im gunna quote from Draft Express here that kind of explains what I mean ...
He is averaging 17.5 points per game primarily as a spot-up shooter on just 20.2% of Duke's overall offensive possessions.
His upside isnt great, but this team could use some smart basketball players.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
All fair points, but I DO think he is a worker, and while he is old for a potential draft pick, I think he can improve his jumper to Miller-Budinger level. Will he? I dont know, but it wont be because he didnt try.

I will say I think I believe in his ball handling a little more than you do, and what he doesnt have in athleticism I think he can make up in craftyness/determination.

And I could be way off base here, but as good as that Duke team was ... It was kind of a strange team to be productive on. You had Irving before he was hurt and then Nolan Smith who where two very ball dominant guards. Then they had the Plumlee brothers along with Ryan Kelly getting a lot of post touches ... and Seth Curry got his fair share of jump shots too .. I almost felt like they forgot about Singler at times... Im gunna quote from Draft Express here that kind of explains what I mean ...

His upside isnt great, but this team could use some smart basketball players.
As I said, his biggest attribute is his ability to hit the open shot. Thus I see him as a spot up shooter in the NBA. I just don't think he'll be able to create for himself at the next level. As I also said, when there was a good defender on him, he struggled. Duke is famous for players that looked good while playing for Duke, but it never related to the next level. Sheldon Williams anyone. Thats actually a credit to the coaching. There are exceptions of course, but most knew they were exceptions before drafting them. I just don't think Singler is one of those exceptions. Hey, I hope I'm wrong. I don't wish ill will on anyone.
 
Focusing on the seniors now..

I'm not sure about the fuss with Justin Harper, out of Richmond. There's two different perspectives to look at him: if he's really a late bloomer, or if his three first college years weren't an aberration. Those on the former think he's Channing Frye; those on the latter camp think he won't amount to much of anything. For starters, I don't he's as good a shooter as he's putting on, given his poor free throw shooting numbers career-wise; overall, I just think he's a better offensive player in college than in the NBA, and to make matters there's bust potential here anyway, because he needs to iron out some of the edges with his offense. So his supposed "strength", shooting, I'm really skeptical about. Elsewhere he's just not an NBA player--he's not really gifted in making defensive plays and has a nagging tendency to get into foul trouble, and he's also a poor rebounder and has zero court vision. The upside is a poor man's Channing, but I doubt he'll reach it. I'm not seeing too much NBA potential here, and I think he should be a 48-undrafted type player, despite all the hype proclaiming he can be a late 1st rounder.

Norris Cole out of Cleveland State appears to be another one of those "better in college than in the NBA" players. He's a stellar college offensive player--his mechanical offense is nothing to write home about, but he can really shoot it from mid-range although his long range shot is a bit questionable. This is pretty much his only strength, however, and sadly I don't think he has much chance of translating in the league: his really poor competition and the kinks in his game here give him significant bust potential, so the offense might go for a severe dropoff in the NBA. Elsewhere there's no strengths-- at 6'2" he passes the ball like a SG, isn't that great at making plays defensively and struggles to board. His mid-range in type offense, even if successful, isn't the best way to generate points in the league, and I doubt it would succeed in the league anyways. Probably undrafted.

Marshon Brooks of Providence is a 6'5" SG and like Cole, he's another better in college than in NBA type players. Brooks looks like an elite scorer in college but given his middling shooting and a bit mechanical construct he's bound for a dropoff in the league, and to compound matters his offense is a bit flawed and the poor competition give him significant bust potential in this area--it's questionable whether the offense can succeed. Another interesting aspect of Brooks' game is that he's quite decent at making defensive plays without fouling, but he doesn't contribute much in the rebounding or passing department at all. His defensive potential is quasi-interesting if the offense can't hold up, but even that might not be enough to get him drafted. Probably a 50-undrafted type.

Jon Leuer's offense should also suffer significantly in the league, and like Justin Harper I really have to wonder about his shooting: career-wise his shooting doesn't seem all that at all, and that's the way he'll have to build his career in the league. His offense construct is incredibly mechanical--he's a pure jumpshooter--but he's pretty NBA-ready as is. He's an OK passer and making defensive plays with his length, but he appears to be "soft" and doesn't foul much at all. Poor rebounder. Can be a cog 8th-9th man type shooter off the bench if his offense can hold up (a bit skeptical) in a poor man's Matt Bonner-type role, and I do have greater hope in his offense than Justin Harper's. But if that doesn't hold up, his softness and lack of rebounding will override his ok intangibles and he won't be long in the league. Probably a 40-55 pick.

I've touched on LaceDarius Dunn before, but here's an update: despite the incredible selfishness/tunnel vision he displays in his game, he's a really really good offensive player. He can slash and shoot from deep, and I personally think he's a very good shooter even if he has a tendency to chuck shots that screw over his percentages--if he ever gets a brain here, he can really become a very useful offensive guy in this league. Dunn's offense is tailor-made for this league, and is in the mid-lotto level out of all the prospects I charted, and playing against strong competition and having few kinks here just compounds the success here even more. But one has to question, at 6'4" is a all-around efficient scorer but incessant chucker with zero court vision/loose handles what is wanted out of your shooting guard? I think if he were 6'6" or 6'7" he would get less heat, but even so it's a loser's style of game. There were Flip Murray comparisons here in the sense that he could surprise people early in his career and flame out as the warts kick in, but I think Dunn's a better shooter than Murray even if he's more selfish, so not sure how that would turn out. His off-the-court issues combined with the loser's game don't help the overall image either. Elsewhere Dunn would need to be hidden--he clearly conserves his energy for offense and doesn't make much of an effort defensively, and is also a poor rebounder--again that might speak to his selfish nature. It's hard for me to project him--I've actually had him in the late 1st due to his offense at times--but something tells me there's too many selfish warts permeating his game, and the fact that he's undersized, so he might slip to 45-undrafted.

Finally, the talk is on Kyle Singler, so I'll focus on him: he should definitely have a role in this league. Not a star at all, but he's just incredibly polished and seasoned offensively and has little bust potential there: his offensive construct is nothing to write home about but he's an above average shooter, so he can be a shooter type in this level--I actually think those Chase Budinger comparisons are apt as the tall shooting SF type. He's also a decent rebounder as well, but his passing and abilities defensively are very meh. Singler knows his game and should be able to carve a niche as a shooting type with some rebounding and no severe weaknesses, and while that isn't a high upside there's also nil bust potential with that. Should be a 20s-30 pick.
 
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bajaden

Hall of Famer
Focusing on the seniors now..

I'm not sure about the fuss with Justin Harper, out of Richmond. There's two different perspectives to look at him: if he's really a late bloomer, or if his three first college years weren't an aberration. Those on the former think he's Channing Frye; those on the latter camp think he won't amount to much of anything. For starters, I don't he's as good a shooter as he's putting on, given his poor free throw shooting numbers career-wise; overall, I just think he's a better offensive player in college than in the NBA, and to make matters there's bust potential here anyway, because he needs to iron out some of the edges with his offense. So his supposed "strength", shooting, I'm really skeptical about. Elsewhere he's just not an NBA player--he's not really gifted in making defensive plays and has a nagging tendency to get into foul trouble, and he's also a poor rebounder and has zero court vision. The upside is a poor man's Channing, but I doubt he'll reach it. I'm not seeing too much NBA potential here, and I think he should be a 48-undrafted type player, despite all the hype proclaiming he can be a late 1st rounder.

Norris Cole out of Cleveland State appears to be another one of those "better in college than in the NBA" players. He's a stellar college offensive player--his mechanical offense is nothing to write home about, but he can really shoot it from mid-range although his long range shot is a bit questionable. This is pretty much his only strength, however, and sadly I don't think he has much chance of translating in the league: his really poor competition and the kinks in his game here give him significant bust potential, so the offense might go for a severe dropoff in the NBA. Elsewhere there's no strengths-- at 6'2" he passes the ball like a SG, isn't that great at making plays defensively and struggles to board. His mid-range in type offense, even if successful, isn't the best way to generate points in the league, and I doubt it would succeed in the league anyways. Probably undrafted.

Marshon Brooks of Providence is a 6'5" SG and like Cole, he's another better in college than in NBA type players. Brooks looks like an elite scorer in college but given his middling shooting and a bit mechanical construct he's bound for a dropoff in the league, and to compound matters his offense is a bit flawed and the poor competition give him significant bust potential in this area--it's questionable whether the offense can succeed. Another interesting aspect of Brooks' game is that he's quite decent at making defensive plays without fouling, but he doesn't contribute much in the rebounding or passing department at all. His defensive potential is quasi-interesting if the offense can't hold up, but even that might not be enough to get him drafted. Probably a 50-undrafted type.

Jon Leuer's offense should also suffer significantly in the league, and like Justin Harper I really have to wonder about his shooting: career-wise his shooting doesn't seem all that at all, and that's the way he'll have to build his career in the league. His offense construct is incredibly mechanical--he's a pure jumpshooter--but he's pretty NBA-ready as is. He's an OK passer and making defensive plays with his length, but he appears to be "soft" and doesn't foul much at all. Poor rebounder. Can be a cog 8th-9th man type shooter off the bench if his offense can hold up (a bit skeptical) in a poor man's Matt Bonner-type role, and I do have greater hope in his offense than Justin Harper's. But if that doesn't hold up, his softness and lack of rebounding will override his ok intangibles and he won't be long in the league. Probably a 40-55 pick.

I've touched on LaceDarius Dunn before, but here's an update: despite the incredible selfishness/tunnel vision he displays in his game, he's a really really good offensive player. He can slash and shoot from deep, and I personally think he's a very good shooter even if he has a tendency to chuck shots that screw over his percentages--if he ever gets a brain here, he can really become a very useful offensive guy in this league. Dunn's offense is tailor-made for this league, and is in the mid-lotto level out of all the prospects I charted, and playing against strong competition and having few kinks here just compounds the success here even more. But one has to question, at 6'4" is a all-around efficient scorer but incessant chucker with zero court vision/loose handles what is wanted out of your shooting guard? I think if he were 6'6" or 6'7" he would get less heat, but even so it's a loser's style of game. There were Flip Murray comparisons here in the sense that he could surprise people early in his career and flame out as the warts kick in, but I think Dunn's a better shooter than Murray even if he's more selfish, so not sure how that would turn out. His off-the-court issues combined with the loser's game don't help the overall image either. Elsewhere Dunn would need to be hidden--he clearly conserves his energy for offense and doesn't make much of an effort defensively, and is also a poor rebounder--again that might speak to his selfish nature. It's hard for me to project him--I've actually had him in the late 1st due to his offense at times--but something tells me there's too many selfish warts permeating his game, and the fact that he's undersized, so he might slip to 45-undrafted.

Finally, the talk is on Kyle Singler, so I'll focus on him: he should definitely have a role in this league. Not a star at all, but he's just incredibly polished and seasoned offensively and has little bust potential there: his offensive construct is nothing to write home about but he's an above average shooter, so he can be a shooter type in this level--I actually think those Chase Budinger comparisons are apt as the tall shooting SF type. He's also a decent rebounder as well, but his passing and abilities defensively are very meh. Singler knows his game and should be able to carve a niche as a shooting type with some rebounding and no severe weaknesses, and while that isn't a high upside there's also nil bust potential with that. Should be a 20s-30 pick.
The only comparison between Budinger and Singler, is that their both tall, and they can both shoot from the outside. End of comparison. Budinger is a freak athlete that can jump out of the building. He can attack the basket with his outstanding quickness and he's a good finisher. Singler struggles when attacking the basket for the opposite reasons of Budinger. Lack of jumping ability and explosiveness. Budinger is capable of using either hand, while Singler is a righthanded only player and only goes to his right when going to the basket. Budinger is capable of creating his own shot off the dribble. I seriously doubt that Singler capable of doing the same thing. I believe that Budinger still has a lot of upside left. I'm not sure Singler has any upside left at all.

Two years ago I was a big fan of LaceDarius Dunn. And I still think he's a very good talent, but he really hurt himself this year with his selfish play. It was one of the worse examples of selfish play that I've seen in a long time. He didn't even disquise the fact that he wanted to break the scoring record, and he didn't care how much it hurt the team. For that reason, and that reason alone, I wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole. Maybe I'm being too harsh on him. But I partially blame him for Perry Jones poor season. He may well turn out to be a good player, but he can do it on someone else's team as far as I'm concerned.

I'm not a big fan of John Leuer, but he does have some potential. He's a very good outside shooter, and he's a better defender than he gets credit for. I do think you have to take in consideration that he played on a team where defense was the first order of business, so he had a lot of help in that area. But your right, he's not a very good rebounder, and at times seems to shy away from contact.

I think both Brooks and Cole may find their way onto a roster, and may eventually end up in the D-league. If Brooks was a couple of inches taller I think he would go higher, but at his current height, and with his slight build, I question how long he would last in the physical play of the NBA. The dude needs to put on some muscle. He's a very streaky shooter, but when he's on, katy bar the door. He can really light it up. Of the two, I think Brooks has the best chance to make it in the NBA.

I've had a hard time judging Harper all year. For one thing, his team wasn't on TV as often, so my views were limited. He's a pretty good athlete, and he has a decent looking jumpshot. He's most dangerous when he can get the ball in the key where he has a variety of shots he uses. He's an OK rebounder, and has a little game in the post. To me though, he always appeared to be more comfortable playing away from the basket. Not to the extent that Channing Frye does, I just think he's limited down low. One of my problems with him, is I'm not sure what his position is. If I had him, I'd put him at SF and see how that works out. Not sure his lateral movement is good enough for the position, but as I said, he's a pretty good athlete. He does have some ability off the dribble, and handles the ball fairly well. He's someone that could surprise a lot of people. Or not!
 
Bad, bad news that Terrence Jones is going back to school. It's a strange decision. Can't imagine him going higher in next years draft than he would have in this years. Regardless, makes the talent pool thinner, and it's not good news for anyone.
 

gunks

Hall of Famer
Man, I wouldnt have minded gettin a look at that T-Jones. High upside, intrigueing prospect.

Ah well...


At this point I'm starting to think we should just trade down for an extra pick. Maybe get Fredette and Faried or something.
 
Bad, bad news that Terrence Jones is going back to school. It's a strange decision. Can't imagine him going higher in next years draft than he would have in this years. Regardless, makes the talent pool thinner, and it's not good news for anyone.
Jerry Reynolds said that this is going to be one of the worst drafts in a long time. (don't remember exactly how much the 'long time' was)

Are the college players getting scared because of the possible lockout happening and withdrawing their names?
 
Baja, in his draft I've noted how Budinger wastes his athleticism--he rarely draws fouls and he's largely a jumpshooter offensively. He can occasionally cut off the ball and dunk, but that's the extent. Budinger also doesn't wreak much havoc defensively and only rebounds at an average pace, but interestingly I thought that his defense was really good this season, at least compared to his other teammates. He really made a good impact on that Rocket team this season. His impact is better than his personal contributions, and I think Singler is wired the same way. I know Budinger has that sick leaping ability but he just doesn't really impose it that much--so at the end a Budinger who wastes his athleticism could equal a Singler with meh athleticism.

As for Terrence Jones, I've noted in a past scouting report how I thought he was similar to Marvin Williams, except a more defensive playmaking oriented version of him. It's a respectable decision, he probably would've went in the lottery anyway in this draft and while I don't think he's a star player at all, he can certainly afford to improve his jumper in college as well as his court vision. Defensively he doesn't need to improve all too much, although with his widebody frame there's probably a cap to his defensive upside in the league.
 
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It's tough seeing all these players pull out when you know that this will in all likelihood be the last time we have an opportunity for a top 5 pick.

I'm really disappointed that Harrison Barnes and Terrance Jones have pulled out.
And with how well things worked with Thorton in the line-up, I'm just not as excited as I was earlier in the season to pick up a back-court mate to play with Tyreke.

If I knew for certain that Petrie was going to be successful in shoring up the starting SF spot via free-agency or trade, then I'd feel a lot more comfortable in this draft.

We don't really need much more in the back-court as a Tyreke/Thorton/Udrih is going to take up most of the minutes and looked to be a good rotation. We also don't need anything more in the front-court with a Cousins/Dalembert/Thompson/Whiteside rotation.

At this point if we don't win the lottery and have a chance at Williams or Irving then I guess you go with Knight or Kanter, as they could help improve the team. Or perhaps you see if you can trade down to get two picks (would love to end up with Faried and Fredette) or maybe look to use the pick in a trade for a veteran.

If we ultimately end up with the 5th pick in the draft, I have no idea what I want to see happen or who I would draft picking at that spot.
 
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Terrence Jones pulling out sucks, but if we don't win the draft the only two players I REALLY wanted was Barnes or Kanter. I would also like to see how Knights and Walkers workouts/measurements go.
 
Terrence Jones pulling out sucks, but if we don't win the draft the only two players I REALLY wanted was Barnes or Kanter. I would also like to see how Knights and Walkers workouts/measurements go.
Barnes was absolutely pathetic in the early part of the year. At least with Perry Jones III you could see the athleticism and the skill and see how he could perhaps be a phenominal player if he put it all together. Barnes on the other hand was completely invisible and ineffective. It's not that he made good plays then bad plays, but rather that he didn't do anything at all to impact the game.
No-one would watch those games and think that he was any sort of prospect for the next level.

However, he really turned it around in the 2nd half of the season. By the end, he had catapulted himself on my personal board all the way to the 3rd spot behind Williams and Irving. He got aggressive, started impacting games, and started winning games for his team.

I'm very disappointed that he pulled out.

Jones is a similar disappointment. I would have considered taking him with a 5th pick, provided that Petrie wasn't confident that he'd be able to find a veteran SF to take the starting spot next year.

As far as measurements go, I'm expecting Knight to measure out at least 3 inches taller than Walker, which is one of the reasons why I would take Knight over Walker.

The person I'm most curious to see measure out is Faried. It looks as if he is big enough to play PF while on the court, but it will be good to see the measurements. Also, he looks as if he's probably quick enough to maybe play some SF on occasion, so I'd like to see how his quickness measures out.

If Faried actually measures out to be big enough to play PF (as one needs a PF to play against other PFs in the playoffs), he's someone I would really consider trying to acquire if possible.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
Baja, in his draft I've noted how Budinger wastes his athleticism--he rarely draws fouls and he's largely a jumpshooter offensively. He can occasionally cut off the ball and dunk, but that's the extent. Budinger also doesn't wreak much havoc defensively and only rebounds at an average pace, but interestingly I thought that his defense was really good this season, at least compared to his other teammates. He really made a good impact on that Rocket team this season. His impact is better than his personal contributions, and I think Singler is wired the same way. I know Budinger has that sick leaping ability but he just doesn't really impose it that much--so at the end a Budinger who wastes his athleticism could equal a Singler with meh athleticism.

As for Terrence Jones, I've noted in a past scouting report how I thought he was similar to Marvin Williams, except a more defensive playmaking oriented version of him. It's a respectable decision, he probably would've went in the lottery anyway in this draft and while I don't think he's a star player at all, he can certainly afford to improve his jumper in college as well as his court vision. Defensively he doesn't need to improve all too much, although with his widebody frame there's probably a cap to his defensive upside in the league.
I guess we'll just have to disagree on the Budinger/Singler debate. I thought Budinger improved his game quite a bit this past season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I'll tell you what. I'll buy you dinner at the resturant of your choice if Singler ends up as good a player as Budinger. I'm not into black and white statements about players, but I feel pretty strongly about Singler. He's someone that I tried to like for the last three years, and I just couldn't do it. I don't mean personally of course, but as a projected SF in the NBA.

When Duke played Virginia, he was guarded by Mike Scott a lot of the game, and he couldn't score on him. Scott was too athletic and was quicker. When they played North Carolina, a good portion of the games he was guarded by Barnes, and once again, the quicker more athletic guy caused him to struggle. I'm not denying he can shoot the ball, I'm just not sure he can do a lot more. But hey, they said Larry Bird wasn't athletic enough, so who knows. I've been wrong before. You might get a free dinner out of it.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
Barnes was absolutely pathetic in the early part of the year. At least with Perry Jones III you could see the athleticism and the skill and see how he could perhaps be a phenominal player if he put it all together. Barnes on the other hand was completely invisible and ineffective. It's not that he made good plays then bad plays, but rather that he didn't do anything at all to impact the game.
No-one would watch those games and think that he was any sort of prospect for the next level.

However, he really turned it around in the 2nd half of the season. By the end, he had catapulted himself on my personal board all the way to the 3rd spot behind Williams and Irving. He got aggressive, started impacting games, and started winning games for his team.

I'm very disappointed that he pulled out.

Jones is a similar disappointment. I would have considered taking him with a 5th pick, provided that Petrie wasn't confident that he'd be able to find a veteran SF to take the starting spot next year.

As far as measurements go, I'm expecting Knight to measure out at least 3 inches taller than Walker, which is one of the reasons why I would take Knight over Walker.

The person I'm most curious to see measure out is Faried. It looks as if he is big enough to play PF while on the court, but it will be good to see the measurements. Also, he looks as if he's probably quick enough to maybe play some SF on occasion, so I'd like to see how his quickness measures out.

If Faried actually measures out to be big enough to play PF (as one needs a PF to play against other PFs in the playoffs), he's someone I would really consider trying to acquire if possible.
Good to see ya back my man. It looks like no summer league this year for us. Maybe you and I can go to Thomas Mack and bounce the ball around. Anyway, the draft is getting interesting with all the withdrawals. I would guess the top five guys on most boards now would be Irving, Williams, Kanter, Walker, and Knight. Those that don't like Kanter will probably stick in one of the international players. Who knows, we may get lucky and draw number one for a change. At least that would make for interesting conversation about whether to take Irving or Williams. I know who I would take. How about you? By the way, I sent you a PM. Don't know if you got it or not....
 

Capt. Factorial

ceterum censeo delendum esse Argentum
Staff member
Jerry Reynolds said that this is going to be one of the worst drafts in a long time. (don't remember exactly how much the 'long time' was)

Are the college players getting scared because of the possible lockout happening and withdrawing their names?
We've had five surefire lotto candidates pass on this draft (Barnes, Sullinger, Henson, Jones, Jones), which by my count is as many (if not more) surefire lotto players as have passed on the previous three drafts together (all of which were stronger drafts). Wy they would want to skip out on a weaker draft to enter one which is expected to be stronger seems curious. I'm not sure it's all about the lockout anymore - I think perhaps there are winds blowing suggesting that the NBA will succeed in forcing "two-and-done" through in the next CBA. If so, the 2012 draft will be decimated - and these five guys will have little competition for the top spot. I just wonder if that's the reasoning.
 
We've had five surefire lotto candidates pass on this draft (Barnes, Sullinger, Henson, Jones, Jones), which by my count is as many (if not more) surefire lotto players as have passed on the previous three drafts together (all of which were stronger drafts). Wy they would want to skip out on a weaker draft to enter one which is expected to be stronger seems curious. I'm not sure it's all about the lockout anymore - I think perhaps there are winds blowing suggesting that the NBA will succeed in forcing "two-and-done" through in the next CBA. If so, the 2012 draft will be decimated - and these five guys will have little competition for the top spot. I just wonder if that's the reasoning.
That's a really interesting thought. I've heard comments about requiring 2 or even 3 years before being allowed to join, but hadn't really given it too much thought that this is something we'd see as early as next year. But if that idea is gaining traction, I could see the logic in sticking around, and enjoying the college life while working to improve your over-all game. North Carolina and Kentucky are going to be absolute monsters next year.
 
Good to see ya back my man. It looks like no summer league this year for us. Maybe you and I can go to Thomas Mack and bounce the ball around. Anyway, the draft is getting interesting with all the withdrawals. I would guess the top five guys on most boards now would be Irving, Williams, Kanter, Walker, and Knight. Those that don't like Kanter will probably stick in one of the international players. Who knows, we may get lucky and draw number one for a change. At least that would make for interesting conversation about whether to take Irving or Williams. I know who I would take. How about you? By the way, I sent you a PM. Don't know if you got it or not....
Apparantely Thomas and Mack has indicated that it's willing to host the Summer League as late as August if the NBA can get the CBA done and still wants to have it, so I'm not quite giving up hope yet. But Summer League is my favorite week of the year, and it will be sad if it doesn't happen this year.

I find it interesting that there are 5 International prospects with-in the top 10 of the draft at this time. Considering that we'll most likely be picking right in the middle there, it will be a shame if we end up drafting a guy I've never even seen play.

Though I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere, Jeffrey Taylor is staying for his senior year at Vanderbilt. So I'm sort of happy about that, since there's a greater likelihood that we could have a shot at him next year even if we make the play-offs.

As far as the top five on the board, I think I agree with you there. Williams/Irving should be 1 and 2 in whatever order you want to place them in. Then there will be an international player, Walker, & Knight battling it out for the final 3 spots.

I will be a bit surprised if Walker is drafted ahead of Knight, as I consider Knight the better NBA prospect who certainly showed a lot more his rookie year than Walker did.

So if we do end up drafting 5th, there's a good chance Knight won't be around, and I was thinking of going with Terrence Jones with the 5th spot if only Walker remained from the above listed. Now that he's gone...I'm not sure what I'd do.

Perhaps see if I could work something to pick up Faried and Fredette. I just don't know enough about the International players to comment on them, so if we go that route, I'll just have to believe that Petrie made another good move for this team.

1st pick in the draft is easy for me. Our front-court and back-court rotations are set and we need help at the SF spot. Derrick Williams is very, very good and I'd take him in a heartbeat.
I think we are a much scarier team with Derrick Williams at the 3 spot, then if we had a 4 man backcourt rotation of Tyreke/Thorton/Irving/Udrih.

If we got lucky enough to draft Derrick Williams I'd be fine going after Battier or Hill for veteran leadership.

I'm looking forward to the lottery, because then the order will be set, and the real speculating can begin.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
Apparantely Thomas and Mack has indicated that it's willing to host the Summer League as late as August if the NBA can get the CBA done and still wants to have it, so I'm not quite giving up hope yet. But Summer League is my favorite week of the year, and it will be sad if it doesn't happen this year.

I find it interesting that there are 5 International prospects with-in the top 10 of the draft at this time. Considering that we'll most likely be picking right in the middle there, it will be a shame if we end up drafting a guy I've never even seen play.

Though I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere, Jeffrey Taylor is staying for his senior year at Vanderbilt. So I'm sort of happy about that, since there's a greater likelihood that we could have a shot at him next year even if we make the play-offs.

As far as the top five on the board, I think I agree with you there. Williams/Irving should be 1 and 2 in whatever order you want to place them in. Then there will be an international player, Walker, & Knight battling it out for the final 3 spots.

I will be a bit surprised if Walker is drafted ahead of Knight, as I consider Knight the better NBA prospect who certainly showed a lot more his rookie year than Walker did.

So if we do end up drafting 5th, there's a good chance Knight won't be around, and I was thinking of going with Terrence Jones with the 5th spot if only Walker remained from the above listed. Now that he's gone...I'm not sure what I'd do.

Perhaps see if I could work something to pick up Faried and Fredette. I just don't know enough about the International players to comment on them, so if we go that route, I'll just have to believe that Petrie made another good move for this team.

1st pick in the draft is easy for me. Our front-court and back-court rotations are set and we need help at the SF spot. Derrick Williams is very, very good and I'd take him in a heartbeat.
I think we are a much scarier team with Derrick Williams at the 3 spot, then if we had a 4 man backcourt rotation of Tyreke/Thorton/Irving/Udrih.

If we got lucky enough to draft Derrick Williams I'd be fine going after Battier or Hill for veteran leadership.

I'm looking forward to the lottery, because then the order will be set, and the real speculating can begin.
Yep, I agree. After may 17th we can stop shooting arrows in the air. I'm not as down on the draft as some. I think we can still get a good player, and the Kings are enterinig the stage of the rebuild where building depth is also important. Every team needs a Jason Terry on their bench. Its not the same thing as hitting a homerun, but when I watch Dallas going up against the Lakers right now, the difference is depth. The Lakers don't have it, and Dallas does. I don't think its an accident that Dallas has taken control of just about every game in the fourth quarter, and the Lakers have looked like they're running on fumes.

Look how important Hardin has become to the Thunder coming off the bench. And no, I'm not suggestiing that we have Thornton come off the bench. I'm not big on weakening one group to strengthen another group. Anyway, I think the Kings can draft someone that can be very valuable as a bench player at number 5. And of course if we get lucky and grab number one, then I'm with you, and we take Williams.

Nothing against Irving, who I think is a can't miss player. But I think Williams is a can't miss player as well, and we have a greater need at his position. If I have two players that I rate equally, I take the one that fills the greater need.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
We've had five surefire lotto candidates pass on this draft (Barnes, Sullinger, Henson, Jones, Jones), which by my count is as many (if not more) surefire lotto players as have passed on the previous three drafts together (all of which were stronger drafts). Wy they would want to skip out on a weaker draft to enter one which is expected to be stronger seems curious. I'm not sure it's all about the lockout anymore - I think perhaps there are winds blowing suggesting that the NBA will succeed in forcing "two-and-done" through in the next CBA. If so, the 2012 draft will be decimated - and these five guys will have little competition for the top spot. I just wonder if that's the reasoning.
I think its a combination of things thats weakening the draft. Some of comes down to individual decisions. I had heard way back at the beginning of the season that Barnes was leaning toward staying in school and getting an education. Apparently that was the wish of his parents as well. Of course a lot of players say that and don't mean it, but in his case, it may have been true. Sullinger is another one that said he wasn't sure about entering the draft very early in the college season, and once again no one believed him. Since both those guys didn't even hesitate at the end of the season, I suspect they may have been telling the truth.

In Perry Jones case, I do think he made the right decision. Although he would have been drated in the top 5, he simply wasn't ready for the NBA. So it was a smart move on his part.

T. Jones is a little bit of a surprise, but not a huge one. First off, I think he got feedback that he wasn't probably a top 5 pick despite it being a weak draft. Secondly, with the incoming class, Kentucky is a sure fire favorite to win the NCAA tourney next season along with North Carolina. Kentucky has 3 of the top 10 highschool players in the nation signed for next season in Marquis Teague a PG, and better than his brother. Michael Gilchrist a SF. And Anthony Davis, a 6'11" center who grew 7 or 8 inches in the last year and a half.

So you plug T. Jones in at PF, and you've got one hell of a team. I also think that Teague signing with Kentucky helped make up Knights mind. Then when you add in the uncertainity of the lockout and possiblity of no season at all, I think returning to college looked like the safer of the two options.
 
Updates on two guys who are really entering the draft:

Reggie Jackson (signed agent now) could require a slight update, even though I did one on him a few weeks ago: in particular, "luminaries" such as "Chad Ford" have proclaimed him as this draft's biggest riser, as he's gone from relative unknown to being a potential lottery pick in this draft. As stated in my previous scouting report, he's not a pure PG, but he's definitely a very good passer/ballhandler for the PG slot. His brand of offense will suffer slightly in the league, but he should be a decent offensive player--he's a decent shooter although his offensive construct is quite poor, so there's a real cap to how much he can do offensively. He's also an excellent rebounder for a point guard, further illustrating his toughness (208 lbs). Jackson should be better defensively than his current state: he makes few defensive plays and he rarely fouls, giving the impression that conserves his energy for offense. He's got few holes in his game, and doesn't have much bust potential at all; the appeal is that he's a rugged, tough 6'3" PG with rebounding and very good passing ability, with decent enough offense and maybe some contain defensive potential as secondary appeals. I can see him getting triple doubles in the league if he develops enough clout. I do see him as a mid-first rounder for sure, maybe late lottery, so Chad can be right here.

Another similar guy, Shelvin Mack (signed agent) is a combo guard at 6'2" 215--and as stated his value will be on the offensive end in the league. His offense should look better in the NBA as well, although he has greater bust potential on this end than Reggie Jackson, so that might also put a ceiling to his offensive production. He's a natural offensive player--he's a good shooter and predominantly a jumpshooter, but he's also a decent slasher as well. Elsewhere Mack is slightly similar to Reggie Jackson--he's a solid rebounder who makes a few defensive plays and looks as if he might be conserving his energy on offense at this end. so Mack has tradeoffs with Jackson--he's a worse rebounder/passer but a better shooter, but has greater bust potential as well. But the 6'2" shooting-oriented all-around offense with some passing and rebounding could give Mack a poor man's Ben Gordon type role off the bench. Should be a 30-40 2nd round pick.

Yet another similar guy, Charles Jenkins (6'3" 220) can really score at the college level, on the basis of his lotto-level like shooting ability. However, his offensive construct is relatively ordinary and there's severe bust potential in his offense on the basis of bad competition, so it inevitably will go through a dropoff (might be a steep one) in the league. What's perhaps most unfortunate is Jenkins' passing/ballhandling abilities, which despite having relative PG height are at SF levels--he's not even a SG level-type passer, as he's such an atrocious ballhandler. Jenkins is actually relatively decent at making a few defensive plays, particularly without fouling, and at 6'3" 220 there might be some defensive potential for him in the league. He's a poor rebounder. It's really hard to see him in the league--he'll be a 6'3" SG/SF type with zero ballhandling/little passing ability, and it's questionable whether his shooting may hold up in the league. But if it holds up, the shooting and ability to defend might have some value in a Jodie Meeks type role, but that's the real upside--he'll need to be cross-matched on offense/defense purposes. Probably a 50-60 pick.

Austin Freeman (6'4" 195) is another very good scorer at the college level, and like Jenkins on the basis of very good shooting ability. I actually see his offense holding him up in the league--he has few kinks to it and while his offensive construct is ordinary, he has such natural scoring instincts it should hold up to a fairly good degree. I actually think Freeman at 6'4" has combo PG skills--he's not a remarkable passer but he's a very good ballhandler, and that helps his ability to transition to the league easier in that area. So Freeman's expertise in the league is as an undersized shooter who can really handle the ball, and he's almost certified to do well in that area. On the other end of the court, Freeman absolutely needs to be hidden--he's an absolutely horrendous rebounder and shows zero ability to make defensive plays, and given his lack of fouling like the rest he appears to be playing to his conserve his energy for offense. There's little upside too--at 6'4" he lacks the speed to defend smaller guards and the height to defend bigger ones, and the overall athleticism to defend both. I really think his brand of offense can succeed in the league in the sort of Lucious Harris sixth-man type role, but his absolute woes defensively might negate that to a large degree and limit his overall minutes on the court (provided he joins a team that cares about defense). He's a 42-58 type pick.

I've touched on Darius Morris (signed agent), but now knowing he's fully into the draft I can't help but to really question the decision. At 6'4" 190 the appeal is that he's a really pure PG, blessed with excellent court vision in particular. But the scoring should really really suffer at the NBA level--he's an average scorer at the college level, but his poor offensive construct and poor shooting ability, as well as the bust potential (too many kinks to his game as of now), can really render that offense very poor at the next level. If teams lay off him that could really take away parts of his passing ability (see: Shaun Livingston). Morris appears to put some effort on defense, but I just think he's really poor on this end: he makes virtually no defensive plays at all and rarely ever gets a rebound despite the height. Between the really questionable offensive and defensive abilities, that's more than enough to overwhelm him at the NBA level and override his elite passing. He actually reminds me of another former Michigan Wolverine: Marcus Taylor, who was overhyped in virtually the same respect and at the end didn't make a dent in the league. He really really needed another year in school. Technically in my book he's a 48-60 pick in the draft.

Here's another rash decision: Cory Joseph. Fearful that Myck Kabongo will take his job next year, Joseph's reportedly (signed agent). Joseph's offense is already quite awful as is in college, and while there's nowhere to go but up when you're that down, I really question Joseph's offensive construct and his shooting ability (if free throw percentage is any real indication, he could really be a poor shooter). As stated in the previous scouting report, Joseph is highly unselfish and can move the ball around in an offense, but he never really makes plays and largely only spots up. I'm wondering about the defense too: he doesn't make many defensive plays and he's a very poor rebounder, yet rarely fouls, so he could use more effort to press guys and perhaps generate turnovers. With everything in terms of potential and with many things to iron out, there's really huge bust potential with him. He potentially can be an undersized spot-up three point shooter who can move the ball around, but that's really the extent--that's not a great upside in the league, and the odds of him even reaching that are very very questionable. He seriously should've stayed in school, and should be in the 50-undrafted range...50 due to the fact he's a freshman.

Rash, numero tres: Josh Selby (signed agent). I've touched on him several times already, that he's a SG-level passer despite standing only 6'1", and that's oftentimes a huge red flag that needs to be made up for with either shooting ability or defense. Unfortunately, Selby doesn't appear to have either as of now. The bigger hope is the shooting: I do think that Selby can be a good shooter in the league, and on that he should look better in the NBA than in college, but his mechanical offensive construct, the currently terrible offense and the fact that he has huge bust potential (a lot of questionable parts to his game) could easily shoot that down and negate it. Defensively I'm just wondering if Selby is completely unable--he just seems lost at times this season, and at times he puts in the effort but still doesn't make too many defensive plays. He's also an atrocious rebounder. There's virtually nothing to like about his game, and even if he accomplishes his goal as a 6'1" shooter (slim chances) even that might not be enough. Should very well be undrafted, but with past hype I'll give him a 50-undrafted window.

Chris Wright (Dayton one, not Georgetown one) at 6'8" 214 is one of my more favorite sleepers in the draft. The guy really rebounds at an excellent rate and also makes a good amount of defensive plays, even if he's a bit foul prone in doing so. His defensive abilities should easily translate to the league, and there's little bust potential particularly with his athleticism. Wright finds ways to score at college, particularly off the O-glass, and he's actually a decent offensive player there--but between the bad shooting and the incredibly mechanical offensive game, he'll have a hard time putting points in the NBA. He has nonexistent court vision/ballhandling abilities as well. Wright actually reminds me of an early Trevor Ariza--a guy who looks the part of the NBA small forward and imposes his athleticism on the court, and that stuff translates to the league. There's actually a good demand for those types of players as they fit right in and can be molded into defensive stoppers, so much that their weaknesses in ballhandling/shooting can be overlooked in the draft. He's actually between 30-45 in my mock on the basis of that ability, but he's a beauty in the eye of the beholder prospect.
 
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bajaden

Hall of Famer
I'm really curious how many times you saw Jenkins play. I saw him play quite a bit, and I'll grant you he played against lesser competition at Hofstra, but the dude is not the turnover machine you made him out to be. His assist to turnover ratio is around 4.9 to 1.8. He had more assists last year than just about everyone else you listed there. He's not flashy, but he makes very good passes and he handles the ball just fine. If he were a bad ballhandler or passer he'd have a hell of lot more turnovers. That said, its his shooting that will make or break him at the next level. And since the only thing you can judge him on is what he did do against his competition, you'd have to give him an A for shooting the ball. He did put up 24 points against North Carolina in his one meeting against them.

I'm not really interested in any of the guys you mentioned for the Kings, and most all of them will probably be 2nd round picks or not get drafted at all. I have serious doubts that Chris Wright will get drafted. I do like him, and his defensive abilities. But he's more of an undersized PF than a SF, which is what the Kings need. He can't shoot a lick from the outside. Reggie Jackson might slip into the bottom of the first round depending on how he shows at the team workouts. My biggest worry about him is the huge jump in his 3 pt shooting percentage this last season. I don't want to criticize imporvement and hard work. It just makes me wonder a little.
 
Jenkins showed PG potential this year, but again it's the classic argument...is this year an aberration, or is he really a late blooming PG? His first three years he was nearly turning the ball over as much as he was passing. And then this year he may have gotten it together. Yes he's unselfish, but I prefer to look at his overall body of work, and I'm not impressed. 43 players in this draft have a better body of work in the ballhandling/passing department than he does, if we were to look over the course of their careers. If he's really a late blooming PG, then obviously there's more to work with, but I can't really subscribe to that argument yet. But this year his passing does look mighty impressive.

As for Wright, I actually like him for us...especially if we were to lose Casspi. There's a real dearth of uppity athleticism on our team despite the youth, and Wright has that athletic factor working for him. Reminds me of Gerald Wallace back in the day, a little bit. Garcia and Greene are more the smooth long range shooting athletes, and Wright is the yang to their yin. There's use for that kind of guy on this team.

As for Jackson, I noted that as well...at the end I think he's a decent shooter. Not as good as the 40%+ he's putting up this year. But anyway he has a swath of skills, and I think that height+passing+rebounding combination will really help him, and he's NBA-ready. That's a lot of good stuff in my book, and he should succeed in some fashion.
 
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