Is the Lottery on the up an up?

FaStRmAn

FaStRmAn

Starter
#1
#1
Below is a listing of the winners of the top 3 draft picks for the last 10 years. The Number at the end is the U.S. TV Household Estimates Designated Market Area (DMA) number — Ranked by Households.

http://www.tvb.org/rcentral/markettrack/US_HH_by_DMA.asp

This ranks the Cities by Market Size and Television share. This is VERY important to the NBA because their TV contracts are based on this Ranking when it is time to negotiate the National and Local television contracts. It is BIG MONEY for the NBA, and the Lower the Number, the MORE money that city makes the NBA in overall viewership.



2010 Draft

Team US TV Market

Washington Wizards 9

Philadelphia 76ers 4

New Jersey Nets 1



2009 Draft

Los Angeles Clippers 2

Memphis Grizzlies 50

Oklahoma City Thunder 45



2008 Draft

Chicago Bulls 3

Miami Heat 17

Minnesota Timberwolves 15



2007 Draft

Portland Trail Blazers 22

Seattle SuperSonics 13

Atlanta Hawks 8



2006 Draft

Toronto Raptors ~ 7 ( 5.5 Million people )

Chicago Bulls 3

Charlotte Bobcats 24




2005 Draft

Milwaukee Bucks 35

Atlanta Hawks 8

Utah Jazz 31



2004 Draft

Orlando Magic 19

Charlotte Bobcats 24

Chicago Bulls 3



2003 Draft

Cleveland Cavaliers 18

Detroit Pistons 11

Denver Nuggets 16



2002 Draft

Houston Rockets 10

Chicago Bulls 3

Golden State Warriors 6



2001 Draft

Washington Wizards 9

Los Angeles Clippers 2

Atlanta Hawks 8



2000 Draft

New Jersey 1

Memphis Grizzlies 50

Los Angeles Clippers 2



In 10 years, 2003 is the ONLY year that a top 10 Television Market team or better did NOT get a top 3 pick! (the 11th TV Market Detroit got one!)

In 2 of the years (2001 and 2010), all top 3 draft picks went to the 10th or higher Television Market teams (no love for the Small Markets...).

In 5 of the 10 years, TWO of the 3 teams that received a top 3 draft pick were teams with a Television Market Share of 10 or less. What a Coincidence !! :eek:

In the last 10 years 14 teams who are in the top 10 TV market or higher got to select in the top 3 in the NBA draft out of a possible 33 or a SURPRISING 43% of the time. Very peculiar indeed for a Lottery system that was devised to allow the teams with the worst record (Regardless of market situation) to have the best shot at the top 3 picks. In fact the NBA lottery has had the exact OPPOSITE effect! It has given top 10 TV market teams a 43% chance of a top 3 pick over 10 years 2000 to 2010.

Perhaps someone will someday do the math on how many teams with the worst record got a draft pick that was NOT in the top 3. I think that is a crime! And I'd be willing to bet that the number of teams with a VERY slim chance of picking in the top 3 winning is unusually high as well! The NBA Lottery by the numbers appears to be skewed toward Big TV Market East Coast Teams. And they do it right in front of our eyes!

Well, not exactly in FRONT of our eyes. The ping pong ball selection is done in secrecy and always has been. No tv cameras allowed. Only one owners representative per team and a VERY small group of select media members are allowed to observe the actual lottery drawing. After the clandestine ping pong ball drawing, the lawyers who are in charge bring out these mysterious envelopes with the top 14 teams. Then you get the dramatic made for TV NBA Lottery event. The Envelopes have nothing physically to do with the lottery, but make it more suspenseful.

Over the years, I have become more and more suspicious of this whole ordeal. I am not directly saying that the Lottery is rigged (although some may draw that conclusion). But is certainly appears to be statistically skewed toward the Big Market Clubs that make the NBA all their revenue. Maybe that explains how the Clippers keep getting all the top 3 draft picks. (as opposed to say, picks 4-10). It hasn't done them much good though has it?

The CONCEPT of having ALL teams that dont make the playoffs in the lottery is a JOKE! ONLY the 5 worst records should have a chance at the 5 top draft picks! After that, they should go in reverse record order. This would make the chances of the worst team a MUCH BETTER CHANCE at a top 3 draft pick !! Seems THAT would be far more fair than the IRS like formula the NBA uses now. You need a degree in Statistics to figure out what your team's actual chances are for any particular pick. It's no wonder that small market teams who are trying to build through the draft rarely succeed. The ODDS are stacked against them! :mad:
 
Last edited:
Vlade4GM

Vlade4GM

All-Star
#4
#4
Someone please explain to me (someone that knows how they actually draw the picks) how they can possible rig the draft. Please, I'm waiting to hear how they can possibly rig it when there are about 20 independent witnesses in the room watching the whole process. Everything is on front street and yet people still claim that it could be rigged because they think they know what results the NBA would want from the lottery. You can make up a reason for why the NBA would want a team to win for every single team in the NBA. I'm so sick of all these bogus conspiracy theories, enough already.

The odds of getting a pick are not determined by the history of lottery results, they are determined by the lottery process itself. And no, the odds aren't great for any team, but the ones with the worst records do have the best odds, and that's an indisputable fact.

It seems like the only consistent definition of a "fair" draft lottery for some fans is their team winning.
 
ElRey

ElRey

Starter
#5
#5
Vlade4GM said:
Someone please explain to me (someone that knows how they actually draw the picks) how they can possible rig the draft. Please, I'm waiting to hear how they can possibly rig it when there are about 20 independent witnesses in the room watching the whole process. Everything is on front street and yet people still claim that it could be rigged because they think they know what results the NBA would want from the lottery. You can make up a reason for why the NBA would want a team to win for every single team in the NBA. I'm so sick of all these bogus conspiracy theories, enough already.

The odds of getting a pick are not determined by the history of lottery results, they are determined by the lottery process itself. And no, the odds aren't great for any team, but the ones with the worst records do have the best odds, and that's an indisputable fact.

It seems like the only consistent definition of a "fair" draft lottery for some fans is their team winning.
Click to expand...

Vlade, I can't answer your questions. But the NBA doesn't help its cause by making everything so secretive. Why not televise the lottery and let people see the lottery balls drop???? Some things that have gone on in the lottery in the past I really have to see with my own eyes to really believe, i.e. Orlando get back to back #1 overall picks, etc.

I could care crap about 20 witnesses watching the process... If they don't have anything to hide, then just show it LIVE like a regular State Jackpot Lottery. Just do it Mr. Stern! what have you got to hide if you're not rigging the draft!
 
Vlade4GM

Vlade4GM

All-Star
#6
#6
As far as Orlando goes, it's called a coincidence.

What will be spotted by a television audience that won't be spotted with media members and reps from all the teams? All those people have every incentive in the world to foil any plot to rig the lottery. The reason they don't televise it is because it would probably be very boring to most people. It's not nearly as dramatic as the way they currently do it. Plus, they draw the first three picks in numerical order too, so the big prize is determined before the smaller prizes are.
 
Bricklayer

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
#7
#7
FaStRmAn said:
In 10 years, 2003 is the ONLY year that a top 10 Television Market team or better did NOT get a top 3 pick! (the 11th TV Market Detroit got one!)
Click to expand...
I feel almost bad cutting through so much verbage to attack the core premise as stated in one sentence:

You do realize, do you not, that not only is EVERY one of the Top 10 markets represented by a basketball team, but that two of them, Los Angeles and New York, are represented by TWO basketball teams. Result: 12 of the 30 teams in the NBA come from Top 10 markets.

Now by my math 12 of 30 is greater than 33%, so why is it a surprise that 1 of 3 lottery winners has consistently been from a big market?

And as mentioned you have reps from every team standing in the back room watching the drawing -- even if you were willing to believe professinal accounting firms would be willing to commit fraud, how on Earth would you convince part of the Kings franchise to consent to being screwed right in front of their face?

Like most conspiracy theories its just fuzzy thinking. Things don't go the way you want and everybody is off to hunt down the boogeymen who done it to them, never realizing of course that the boogeymen really don't give a damn about them one way or the other. **** happens.
 
Last edited:
Gliesian

Gliesian

Bench
#8
#8
18 times out of 33 chances a top 10 DMA team has gotten in the top 3 draft, making it2 out of 3 lottery winners. This is double the expected number. Also, most of the teams that get into the playoffs probably have a higher than average DMA (did a little bit of research), making this data even more credible.
I tried to find the team worth for each year. Stupid forbes site only has 2009, 2008, and 2007, and 2004. So I used 2004 ratings for the rest.
I noticed that upon getting a good player, the market for that team increases drastically, especially for those with a high DMA. For example, in 2007 Portland drafted Greg Oden with the number 1 pick. The next year, the market value for the team jumped 21%. In 2003 Detroit had the second pick and their team's value went up 26% the next year. For teams that have a lower DMA, this % increase is less. Anyways, for giggles, here's the worth of the team in those years by rank:

2010
washington 19
philly 14
NJN 26

2009
LA C 23
Memphis 29
Oklahoma 20

2008
Chicago 3
Miami 12
MInnesota 23

2007
Portland 30
Seattle 28
Atlanta 26

2006
Toronto 16
Chicago 3
Charlotte 23

2005
Milaukee 29
Atlanta 25
Utah 18

2004
Orlando 26
Seattle 27
Chicago 3

2003
Cleveland 15
Detroit 7
Denver 22

2002
Houston 11
Chicago 3
SF 28

2001
Washington 13
LA C 24
Atlanta 25

2000
NJ 17
Memphis 21
LA C 24

From this standpoint, evidence suggests that the lower-worth NBA teams are getting the top 3. The lower worth teams usually have the worst record, so there is no reason to believe it is fixed. However, since cities with a high DMA have the greatest % value increase, it makes sense to rig the draft if you want more money.

Do we have a history of % chance at getting the top 3 for each team in each of these years? That would be yet another way to accept your hypothesis and would get us a standard deviation. We would need to go back to the 80's as well, this sample size is too small.
 
matthew76

matthew76

Bench
#9
#9
My question is, Why have a lottery at all? Why can't we just pick in order of how we placed at the end of the year? I mean i understand the thing to avoid tanking and all, but who cares? Let teams tank for all i care
 
pdxKingsFan

pdxKingsFan

So Ordinary That It's Truly Quite Extraordinary
Staff member
#11
#11
Vlade4GM said:
Plus, they draw the first three picks in numerical order too, so the big prize is determined before the smaller prizes are.
Click to expand...
My understanding, and this may have changed, was that they actually only draw one ball (or whatever the physical unit is) out of the tens of thousands of combinations that represent all 3 top picks. This system makes it very difficult to commit any kind of fraud. It might also explain why the top spots are so volatile because the bottom team doesn't actually get 3 chances to secure one of the top 3 picks.
 
TTown Kings

TTown Kings

Bench
#12
#12
Vlade4GM said:
Someone please explain to me (someone that knows how they actually draw the picks) how they can possible rig the draft.
Click to expand...
How could they possibly rig the draft? Who the hell knows what really is going on in that room? You really trust them because they hire Ernst & Young an outside consultant? I'm not saying it is rigged, but it would be incredibly easy for them. For all we know they don't even use a ping pong ball machine. How bout instead of them doing that all behind closed doors and bringing out a bunch of envelopes they actually draw the ping pong balls on tv right there in front of everyone....
 
Emma

Emma

Starter
#13
#13
The lottery could continue with these sorts of results in perpetuity and could still be conceived as "not rigged." But I believe that it is.

The randomization method presented to the public is rather sophisticated, and something so sophisticated has to have latent loopholes. Besides, it's run by humans.

/putting on foil hat
 
Capt. Factorial

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#15
#15
pdxKingsFan said:
My understanding, and this may have changed, was that they actually only draw one ball (or whatever the physical unit is) out of the tens of thousands of combinations that represent all 3 top picks.
Click to expand...
It sounds as if your understanding is not correct. This site gives a very thorough explanation of the current lottery procedure:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

This system makes it very difficult to commit any kind of fraud.
Click to expand...
Agreed.

It might also explain why the top spots are so volatile because the bottom team doesn't actually get 3 chances to secure one of the top 3 picks.
Click to expand...
I'm sorry, I don't catch your meaning. All teams have three shots at a top three pick, unless they get the #1 or #2 pick.
 
Capt. Factorial

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#16
#16
TTown Kings said:
Who the hell knows what really is going on in that room?
Click to expand...
For starters, one representative from every lottery team.

If people want to go on with these paranoid delusions that the lottery is fixed, they're going to have to at the very least account for the complicity of the teams that would be knowingly allowing themselves to get screwed out of high lottery picks. Start explaining that one now. You have 60 seconds. Go!
 
H

hammystyle

Starter
#18
#18
Bricklayer said:
I feel almost bad cutting through so much verbage to attack the core premise as stated in one sentence:

You do realize, do you not, that not only is EVERY one of the Top 10 markets represented by a basketball team, but that two of them, Los Angeles and New York, are represented by TWO basketball teams. Result: 12 of the 30 teams in the NBA come from Top 10 markets.

Now by my math 12 of 30 is greater than 33%, so why is it a surprise that 1 of 3 lottery winners has consistently been from a big market?

And as mentioned you have reps from every team standing in the back room watching the drawing -- even if you were willing to believe professinal accounting firms would be willing to commit fraud, how on Earth would you convince part of the Kings franchise to consent to being screwed right in front of their face?

Like most conspiracy theories its just fuzzy thinking. Things don't go the way you want and everybody is off to hunt down the boogeymen who done it to them, never realizing of course that the boogeymen really don't give a damn about them one way or the other. **** happens.
Click to expand...
Indeed...and in addition if the league was fixing it would make sense in particular to steer the "super" lotto pick guys to big markets. Those being the surefire franchise HOFer guys (barring injury). Since the lottery started those guys have been Ewing, The Admiral, Shaq, Mourning, Duncan, LeBron, and Oden. Those guys ended up in NY, San Antonio (twice), Orlando, Cleveland, and Charlotte.

Even the next cut of guys is Yao, Durant, Iverson, Daugherty, Webber, Larry Johnson maybe. They ended up in Houston, Portland, Philly, Cleveland, Orlando, and Charlotte.

So you look at the history of the lottery and when the surefire superstars (or close things) have come into the leage the biggest winner by far has been San Antonio. Cleveland and Orlando are in that second tier.
 
pdxKingsFan

pdxKingsFan

So Ordinary That It's Truly Quite Extraordinary
Staff member
#19
#19
Capt. Factorial said:
It sounds as if your understanding is not correct. This site gives a very thorough explanation of the current lottery procedure:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery
Click to expand...
You're right, I've read it before, it still confuses the hell out of me. For some reason I took them narrowing all the possible combinations into a set of approximately 1000 outcomes to mean that they then drew one ball. But it's pretty clear that its far more complicated than that. Either way I believe due to the large amount of balls it is much harder to manipulate.
 
keflanag

keflanag

Bench
#20
#20
There seem to be two types of people on this board who think the lottery system is rigged. First there are those who think that the league specifically is screwing the Kings (based on going from 1 to 4 last year, and 3 to 5 this year). Secondly, there is the group that thinks that there is nothing specific against the Kings, but that large market teams are favored. These people have one thing in common. A complete lack of math skills.

In 2009, the Kings had the highest chance of getting the #1 pick. Do you know what pick had the HIGHEST probability to get? #4

Take a guess as to which pick the Kings had the highest probability to get in 2010 ... that's right ... #5.

Now, as far as this Top 10 market BS ... To make it simple, let's say that there were 30 teams, in 30 different markets, and let's forget the weighted probabilities based on the standings. There would more than a 70% chance that one of the top 3 picks would be a top 10 market. There is no conspiracy here ... let it go.
 
Rookie

Rookie

Starter
#21
#21
Did you guys know that Stern found out that having Cleveland going to the championship doesn't make as much money as the Celtic?

Just another thought. ;)

Why do you think Orlando is losing to them as well?
 
ElRey

ElRey

Starter
#22
#22
Vlade4GM said:
As far as Orlando goes, it's called a coincidence.

What will be spotted by a television audience that won't be spotted with media members and reps from all the teams? All those people have every incentive in the world to foil any plot to rig the lottery. The reason they don't televise it is because it would probably be very boring to most people. It's not nearly as dramatic as the way they currently do it. Plus, they draw the first three picks in numerical order too, so the big prize is determined before the smaller prizes are.
Click to expand...

I'm not saying that the lottery is rigged. I'm just asking for transparency. I dont think it's that much to ask for.

In a league that is plagued constantly by conspiracy accusations, why not just eliminate that doubt all together with the lottery? What's the big deal about televising the lottery ball selections? For those who say that it's more dramatic to just announce the team orders in reverse order, I think it's way more dramatic and better for TV to have a REAL lottery with all those lottery balls bouncing around, and people in anticpation as those lottery balls bounce. Just my opinion.
 
kennadog

kennadog

Dog On It!
#23
#23
ElRey said:
I'm not saying that the lottery is rigged. I'm just asking for transparency. I dont think it's that much to ask for.

In a league that is plagued constantly by conspiracy accusations, why not just eliminate that doubt all together with the lottery? What's the big deal about televising the lottery ball selections? For those who say that it's more dramatic to just announce the team orders in reverse order, I think it's way more dramatic and better for TV to have a REAL lottery with all those lottery balls bouncing around, and people in anticpation as those lottery balls bounce. Just my opinion.
Click to expand...
Well, you wouldn't know what your ping pong ball numbers meant, until all 14 teams have picked and the order has been established, right? Probably be pretty boring to watch.
 
Vlade4GM

Vlade4GM

All-Star
#24
#24
pdxKingsFan said:
My understanding, and this may have changed, was that they actually only draw one ball (or whatever the physical unit is) out of the tens of thousands of combinations that represent all 3 top picks. This system makes it very difficult to commit any kind of fraud. It might also explain why the top spots are so volatile because the bottom team doesn't actually get 3 chances to secure one of the top 3 picks.
Click to expand...
There are 1000 4-numbers combinations of numbers ranging from 1-14. Every team is given a certain number of possible combinations. They draw the combinations for the first pick, then the second, and then the third. If they draw a team's combinations twice, they do the drawing over.
 
Vlade4GM

Vlade4GM

All-Star
#26
#26
TTown Kings said:
How could they possibly rig the draft? Who the hell knows what really is going on in that room? You really trust them because they hire Ernst & Young an outside consultant? I'm not saying it is rigged, but it would be incredibly easy for them. For all we know they don't even use a ping pong ball machine. How bout instead of them doing that all behind closed doors and bringing out a bunch of envelopes they actually draw the ping pong balls on tv right there in front of everyone....
Click to expand...
Actually we do know what happens because members of the media and representatives from all the lottery teams are in the room. Why would they agree to the lottery being rigged.

See, this is the big reason why so many people believe it could be rigged, because they don't bother to find out about what happens in that room. Hell, they tell you on TV before the reveal.
 
Warhawk

Warhawk

Give blood and save a life!
Staff member
#27
#27
kennadog said:
Well, you wouldn't know what your ping pong ball numbers meant, until all 14 teams have picked and the order has been established, right? Probably be pretty boring to watch.
Click to expand...
As mentioned earlier, the balls pulled out first would be for the #1 position. Kinda takes the fun out of it. Also, if addtional combinations are drawn that are duplicates, those need to be thrown out (say, for example, Wash got the #1 pick but they also got picked for #3). Now, maybe what they could do is show the balls being pulled AFTER they show the order for "transparency sake" but I wouldn't see them showing it before.
 
Vlade4GM

Vlade4GM

All-Star
#28
#28
ElRey said:
I'm not saying that the lottery is rigged. I'm just asking for transparency. I dont think it's that much to ask for.

In a league that is plagued constantly by conspiracy accusations, why not just eliminate that doubt all together with the lottery? What's the big deal about televising the lottery ball selections? For those who say that it's more dramatic to just announce the team orders in reverse order, I think it's way more dramatic and better for TV to have a REAL lottery with all those lottery balls bouncing around, and people in anticpation as those lottery balls bounce. Just my opinion.
Click to expand...
All doubt has been eliminated for people that actually research how the actual process is done. It really doesn't matter what you think is more dramatic, it matters what the general audience thinks is more dramatic.
 
ElRey

ElRey

Starter
#29
#29
Vlade4GM said:
All doubt has been eliminated for people that actually research how the actual process is done. It really doesn't matter what you think is more dramatic, it matters what the general audience thinks is more dramatic.
Click to expand...
ALL Doubt huh? :confused: You're entitled to your opinion. I like Warhawk's suggestion.

btw as a side note, wonder who our representative was at the secret lottery drawing this year? just curious
 
You must log in or register to reply here.