2009-10 Kings draft position thread

[fnordius]

Humphries is like a 5 or 6 year vet BTW.

Argh.

Humphries doesn't even play the right position for that comparison, I meant Terrence Williams. I guess that suckitude even beyond ours must turn my brain to mush.

Update:

1. NJN 4-44 .083
2. MIN 11-38 .224
3. GSW 13-35 .271
4-5. WAS/SAC 16-32 .333
6. DET 16-31 .340
7. IND 17-32 .347
8. PHI 17-31 .354

 

[Kingster]

Coming around the bend, the Kings have decisively taken the 4th position. Only two games "behind" the Warriors, the upcoming games against NY, Detroit, and the Clipps will be decisive for their chances of breaking into the "top" three.

 

[Big Cuz 15]

theres 30 games left in the season, should the kings remain at this pace we have a chance to be in the top 5. would it be better to hold onto kmart until the offseason and deal in during the draft?

 

[Bricklayer]

theres 30 games left in the season, should the kings remain at this pace we have a chance to be in the top 5. would it be better to hold onto kmart until the offseason and deal in during the draft?

What? On the theory that he's killing the team and will help us get better draft position? Not sure you intentionally keep around a problem to help tank.

Losing is losing. I will cheerfully take a bottom 5 record and the corresponding young stud in the draft. But so much t hat was finally positive aorund here is dead or dying now. The fanbase, the young team's chemistry and spirit. Wipiing all that out to go a tanking just isn't worth it.

I will say as this has gotten worse I am increasingly more interested in young guys (Thabeet etc.) or even injured guys (Anthony Randolph et al) over more vets guys who could make an immmediate impact. But we are being actively damaged right now -- its betraying your own young core and the fans to intentionally damage us further.

 

[=LarryLegend=]

theres 30 games left in the season, should the kings remain at this pace we have a chance to be in the top 5. would it be better to hold onto kmart until the offseason and deal in during the draft?

I think Kings make a trade..but it will be Kenny thomas or Andres Nocioni not Kmart. but I think he WILL be traded in the off season.

 

[Vlade4GM]

What? On the theory that he's killing the team and will help us get better draft position? Not sure you intentionally keep around a problem to help tank.

Losing is losing. I will cheerfully take a bottom 5 record and the corresponding young stud in the draft. But so much t hat was finally positive aorund here is dead or dying now. The fanbase, the young team's chemistry and spirit. Wipiing all that out to go a tanking just isn't worth it.

I will say as this has gotten worse I am increasingly more interested in young guys (Thabeet etc.) or even injured guys (Anthony Randolph et al) over more vets guys who could make an immmediate impact. But we are being actively damaged right now -- its betraying your own young core and the fans to intentionally damage us further.

You don't move a player that has decent trade value just for the sake of moving him, you have to do it at the right time.

 

[MassachusettsKingsFan]

You don't move a player that has decent trade value just for the sake of moving him, you have to do it at the right time.

And if Martin continues to slump for the rest of the year here in Sac he's going to bring us back a lot less than he would right now.

The deadline is usually where u get the most value for your player. Lots of teams trying to better themselves.

 

[Vlade4GM]

And if Martin continues to slump for the rest of the year here in Sac he's going to bring us back a lot less than he would right now.

The deadline is usually where u get the most value for your player. Lots of teams trying to better themselves.

Everyone knows what kind of player Martin is, no slump or surge is going to change any team's mind about him. His injury is still fresh in everyone's mind right now, if you want to go that route.

What exactly are the teams that are trying to better themselves going to give up? More assets are available in the offseason because teams have a better idea of what's available to them in free agency and in the draft.

Still, that's irrelevant to the idea of moving him just to get him off the team which is stupid.

 

[fnordius]

Update time.

We're back in sole possession of 4th, but have a huge pack of teams hot on our heels. A few extra wosses and we could be in 10th.

1. NJN 5-49 .093
2. MIN 13-42 .236
3. GSW 15-38 .283
4. SAC 18-36 .333
5. IND 18-35 .340
6. WAS 18-33 .353
7-8. DET/NYK 19-34 .358
9. PHI 20-33 .377
10. LAC 21-33 .389

 

[Kingster]

Update time.

We're back in sole possession of 4th, but have a huge pack of teams hot on our heels. A few extra wosses and we could be in 10th.

1. NJN 5-49 .093
2. MIN 13-42 .236
3. GSW 15-38 .283
4. SAC 18-36 .333
5. IND 18-35 .340
6. WAS 18-33 .353
7-8. DET/NYK 19-34 .358
9. PHI 20-33 .377
10. LAC 21-33 .389

Yep. I've got to think there will be more wosses with Landry. Kings could easily move to the 9th slot.

 

[Big Cuz 15]

Yep. I've got to think there will be more wosses with Landry. Kings could easily move to the 9th slot.

don't speak of such things... we're in the 4th spot right now. its looking pretty nice if we can stay in the top 5.

 

[Big Cuz 15]

we are currently tied for 4th place right now

6. Detroit 22-41
6. New York 22-41
5. Washington 21-40
4. Indiana 21-43
4. Sacramento 21-43
3. Golden State 17-46
2. Minnesota 14-50
1. New Jersey 7-56

 

[Kingster]

we are currently tied for 4th place right now

6. Detroit 22-41
6. New York 22-41
5. Washington 21-40
4. Indiana 21-43
4. Sacramento 21-43
3. Golden State 17-46
2. Minnesota 14-50
1. New Jersey 7-56

I may not be rooting for the Kings to lose, but I'm definitely rooting for Detroit, NY, Wash, Indiana, and GS to win. Go teams, go!

 

[Big Cuz 15]

I may not be rooting for the Kings to lose, but I'm definitely rooting for Detroit, NY, Wash, Indiana, and GS to win. Go teams, go!

yup! as long as we land somewhere in the top 5 its all good

 

[Kingster]

I did a very quick check of the schedules of our "competition". I did a very simple count of the easy games on their schedule (it includes our competition noted below and I put the Clipps and Philly in there too)

Indiana - 7 easies
Wizards - 5 easies
NY - 6
Detroit - 6
GS - 5
Kings - 4

All other things being equal, Kings have the toughest schedule for the remainder of the year. Admittedly, you have to look at home game vs. away game schedule, but don't have the time for that now.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

I did a very quick check of the schedules of our "competition". I did a very simple count of the easy games on their schedule (it includes our competition noted below and I put the Clipps and Philly in there too)

Indiana - 7 easies
Wizards - 5 easies
NY - 6
Detroit - 6
GS - 5
Kings - 4

All other things being equal, Kings have the toughest schedule for the remainder of the year. Admittedly, you have to look at home game vs. away game schedule, but don't have the time for that now.

My impression from looking a few days ago was that just about all the teams in the top half of the lottery had pretty similar difficulty taking into account home/road. For what it's worth, Hollinger's current predictions have us tied for the seventh pick when it's all said and done.

 

[Kingster]

My impression from looking a few days ago was that just about all the teams in the top half of the lottery had pretty similar difficulty taking into account home/road. For what it's worth, Hollinger's current predictions have us tied for the seventh pick when it's all said and done.

I think 7th will be the lowest we could possibly get. I'm an "optimist". I like that #5 slot.

 

[LPKingsFan]

My impression from looking a few days ago was that just about all the teams in the top half of the lottery had pretty similar difficulty taking into account home/road. For what it's worth, Hollinger's current predictions have us tied for the seventh pick when it's all said and done.

Correction: Seventh-worst record. Don't forget that it all comes down to the bouncing balls. Even though it worked out well, last year's lotto heartbreak has me steering clear of most of this talk until we know anything for sure. Of course, for that reason, maybe assuming we'll have the 7th pick and planning from there is the surest way to maintain sanity.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Correction: Seventh-worst record. Don't forget that it all comes down to the bouncing balls. Even though it worked out well, last year's lotto heartbreak has me steering clear of most of this talk until we know anything for sure. Of course, for that reason, maybe assuming we'll have the 7th pick and planning from there is the surest way to maintain sanity.

Of course. I was taking the lottery process as read because its out of our hands.

 

[Kingster]

This year it looks like it's almost a toss up between the #1 and #2 pick because of Wall and Turner. Captain Factorial, do you know what the ping pong percentages are for getting the #2 pick? For example, if you're in the 5th, 6th, or 7th slot, what are the probabilities for getting that #2?
Thanks.

 

[Dreadnought]

Anyone else get the vibe that this year will be the year we finally do alright in the draft and maybe get a higher pick than is projected? I'm not saying we'll win, but I'm just getting the feeling that we'll hopefully get a top 4 pick.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

This year it looks like it's almost a toss up between the #1 and #2 pick because of Wall and Turner. Captain Factorial, do you know what the ping pong percentages are for getting the #2 pick? For example, if you're in the 5th, 6th, or 7th slot, what are the probabilities for getting that #2?
Thanks.

The Wikipedia entry for the NBA Lottery has a nice table that shows the odds.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Anyone else get the vibe that this year will be the year we finally do alright in the draft and maybe get a higher pick than is projected? I'm not saying we'll win, but I'm just getting the feeling that we'll hopefully get a top 4 pick.

Feeling? The lottery is blind luck dude, so unless you're claiming that you're psychic...

 

[SacTownGrantFan]

Feeling? The lottery is blind luck dude, so unless you're claiming that you're psychic...

Kind of kills the good vibe......but hey, I'm no statistician

 

[Kingster]

The Wikipedia entry for the NBA Lottery has a nice table that shows the odds.

So if I remember anything from the old stat class (probably not), then if the Kings were in the 5th slot, they'd have a 28.2% chance of getting either the first, second, or third pick. (I just took the sum of each of the three probabilities for that 5th slot).

 

[Capt. Factorial]

So if I remember anything from the old stat class (probably not), then if the Kings were in the 5th slot, they'd have a 28.2% chance of getting either the first, second, or third pick. (I just took the sum of each of the three probabilities for that 5th slot).

Yep, going across each row those probabilities will add to one (within round off error).

In the case of ties they will average the number of lotto combos between the two teams, and do a coin toss for pre-lotto draft position. It seems that there's usually at least one tie somewhere.

 

[fnordius]

Those couple of recent wosses were costly, essentially dropping us one lottery position each. The only thing guaranteed at this point is that we can't get either a playoff spot or the #1 lottery position.

We've still got two games left to play against the Clippers, and one each versus Indiana and Minny. Ninth place is within our grasp, or tenth if we follow our recent tradition of killing our draft chances with a last minute win over the Clips.

1. NJN 7-59 .106
2. MIN 14-53 .209
3. GSW 18-47 .277
4. IND 21-45 .318
5. WAS 21-43 .328
6. SAC 23-44 .343
7-8-9. PHI/DET/NYK 23-43 .348
10. LAC 25-42 .373

 

[kennadog]

Random question...does anyone know the lowest position from which a lottery team has come up with the #1 pick?

 

[Big Cuz 15]

this is depressing.. i was hoping for a top 5 pick so we could nab one last top prospect before the roster transformation this summer.

Those couple of recent wosses were costly, essentially dropping us one lottery position each. The only thing guaranteed at this point is that we can't get either a playoff spot or the #1 lottery position.

We've still got two games left to play against the Clippers, and one each versus Indiana and Minny. Ninth place is within our grasp, or tenth if we follow our recent tradition of killing our draft chances with a last minute win over the Clips.

1. NJN 7-59 .106
2. MIN 14-53 .209
3. GSW 18-47 .277
4. IND 21-45 .318
5. WAS 21-43 .328
6. SAC 23-44 .343
7-8-9. PHI/DET/NYK 23-43 .348
10. LAC 25-42 .373

 

[Vlade4GM]

We need lins