and with the #1 pick in the 2009 NBA draft the Kings select...

Last year's class is not his original graduating class, because he was apparently not eligible to graduate with them. You can't be considered a part of that graduating class, if you were not eligible to graduate at the same time as them. If it took me 6 years to be eligible to graduate from college, my graduating class would be the one graduating in that 6th year, not the one eligible to graduate two years ealrier than me. That's why he's not considered a "post-graduate" 5th year student.
If the state that you go to school in has a exit exam, as California does, you can qualify to graduate on time ( have the necessary credits ), but not get your diploma because you didn't pass the exit exam. Instead, you get a certificate of completion.

Of course, none of this makes any difference, since the kid promised his dead father that he would got to college. And, he seems set on keeping his word to his parents.
 
Last year's class is not his original graduating class, because he was apparently not eligible to graduate with them. You can't be considered a part of that graduating class, if you were not eligible to graduate at the same time as them. If it took me 6 years to be eligible to graduate from college, my graduating class would be the one graduating in that 6th year, not the one eligible to graduate two years ealrier than me. That's why he's not considered a "post-graduate" 5th year student.
The wording of the rule is ambiguous enough that it can be interpreted in many ways. Had he stayed at his orginial school, he would have already graduated, or at least his class would have. One could argue that the spirit of the rule was not intended to prevent someone who would have graduated had he just stayed put, from entering the NBA.
 
Oh, really. Over 90% of the NBA mock drafts have it Griffin #1 and Rubio #2 or vice versa. I saw only a couple that had Thabeet or Wall and that was before Thabeet declared and of course Wall has not declared and probably won't.

I think Kings very well might take Rubio over Griffin, but would put it at about 60-40 they take the collegiate Sooner phenom. If Rubio was not in the draft I'm 100% sure they'd take Griffin. Conversely, if Rubio were in the draft and Griffin were not I'd say it would be about 90% they'd take the Spanish phenom instead of a Thabeet or someone else.
Sure, Petrie never does the unconventional thing, right?:rolleyes: It's rare that Petrie and the crowd agree.
 
Having seen Rose play every game this year, he is an amazing talent. Having said that, he has not shown the same flashes the Paul/Deron have shown. He doesn't have the vision of paul or the shooting of Deron. There will always be that question about his ceiling. His athleticism is off the charts, and he is the perfect size and body build for that position. The decision to draft him over Beasely is still argued in many circles in Chicago. Did you see what Beasely did in the 3 games at the end of the season when he was starting? The guy is a supreme talent. Remember, he put up similar stats to Durant in college. His knock is his heart and defense. He ever finds those, he will light up the leauge. It's not a question, it's fact.

Rose was given the reins to a young athletic team, and he put up decent stats. He won the ROY solely by not losing it. Yes, he had a great first game vs the Cs, but Rondo is TORCHING him, and you can make a case that if his defense was better than average, Bulls would be up 2-0. The PG is supposed to iniate the offense, not be the end result. This is especially true with the Bulls, who have me-first players that cannot create their own offense (Ben Gordon excluded). Rose's athleticism will carry him so far until he becomes the great distributor. He has still not found the medium between being a scorer and being a distributor. He can't turn it on and off yet. It's not a given that he ever will because he does not have that killer instinct yet. But, he's a rookie, and he has time. I'm very happy with what I've seen so far, but he needs to show a lot more to cement that #1 draft pick and justify it. Given that Vinny is his coach though, I give all the credit to Rose for what he's done so far.
Rose's ceiling is as high as the Hall of Fame.
 
If the state that you go to school in has a exit exam, as California does, you can qualify to graduate on time ( have the necessary credits ), but not get your diploma because you didn't pass the exit exam. Instead, you get a certificate of completion.

Of course, none of this makes any difference, since the kid promised his dead father that he would got to college. And, he seems set on keeping his word to his parents.

ok, here is the interview with Wall where he talked about this and the headlines have been a little different than what he actually said.

Go to about 2:29

(paraphrasing here)
The question is: if a team came to you and promised you the #1 pick of the NBA draft this year, is that something you would pass up to go to college?

answer: I'd have to think about that. That would be tough, but I did promise my Dad I would go to college.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LR8NSQllaVQ

If I'm Petrie, I go to the Wall camp and tell him we would guarantee to pick him this year. Hey John, we know school is important as is keeping your promise to your Dad, but did you know you can take classes online or during the summer and still go to the NBA right now? :D
 
The wording of the rule is ambiguous enough that it can be interpreted in many ways. Had he stayed at his orginial school, he would have already graduated, or at least his class would have. One could argue that the spirit of the rule was not intended to prevent someone who would have graduated had he just stayed put, from entering the NBA.
But he wouldn't have graduated last year, whether he stayed put or not, is the way I understand it.

I guess it could be looked at that way, after all would a 20-year old high school dropout be eligible? Wall himself said he was not a"post-graduate" 5th year student and he is assuming he's not eligible.

As to his promise about going to college? He can do what Hawes is doing and work on getting his college degree while playing in the NBA.
 

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
If I'm Petrie, I go to the Wall camp and tell him we would guarantee to pick him this year. Hey John, we know school is important as is keeping your promise to your Dad, but did you know you can take classes online or during the summer and still go to the NBA right now? :D
Normally I think that a year or two of college does these kids a world of good, just in living out on their own and maybe, maybe (there are so many hangers on who knows) learning a little worldy responsibility before taking a franchise on their shoulders.

But given that this is us I am going to act out of blatant self interest and second your suggestion. PLENTY of time for college Mr. Wall. In the summers, after you are retired, heck you can take morning classes at American River (local J.C. in Sacto) if you really have the bug. :p I'm sure your dad didn't say "son, promise me you will go to college...immediately out of your 5th year of high school without working a job at the same time" did he? See? LOTS of wiggle room. And besides...we need you.
 
Normally I think that a year or two of college does these kids a world of good, just in living out on their own and maybe, maybe (there are so many hangers on who knows) learning a little worldy responsibility before taking a franchise on their shoulders.

But given that this is us I am going to act out of blatant self interest and second your suggestion. PLENTY of time for college Mr. Wall. In the summers, after you are retired, heck you can take morning classes at American River (local J.C. in Sacto) if you really have the bug. :p I'm sure your dad didn't say "son, promise me you will go to college...immediately out of your 5th year of high school without working a job at the same time" did he? See? LOTS of wiggle room. And besides...we need you.
Double Ditto!!
 
Rose's ceiling is as high as the Hall of Fame.

It's as high as Vinny's common sense. You have no idea how much he is hindering this kid's progress in return for veterans down the strech. Not until the end of the year did he begin to leave him in. High draft picks need time and trust in them. Especially ones that have high ceilings like Rose and Beasely.
 
Normally I think that a year or two of college does these kids a world of good, just in living out on their own and maybe, maybe (there are so many hangers on who knows) learning a little worldy responsibility before taking a franchise on their shoulders.

But given that this is us I am going to act out of blatant self interest and second your suggestion. PLENTY of time for college Mr. Wall. In the summers, after you are retired, heck you can take morning classes at American River (local J.C. in Sacto) if you really have the bug. :p I'm sure your dad didn't say "son, promise me you will go to college...immediately out of your 5th year of high school without working a job at the same time" did he? See? LOTS of wiggle room. And besides...we need you.
not to mention that its not much of a promise to attend a highly-regarded college for just one year, only to jump ship for the nba after that...

that's "going to college" by technicality...

;)
 
Normally I think that a year or two of college does these kids a world of good, just in living out on their own and maybe, maybe (there are so many hangers on who knows) learning a little worldy responsibility before taking a franchise on their shoulders.

But given that this is us I am going to act out of blatant self interest and second your suggestion. PLENTY of time for college Mr. Wall. In the summers, after you are retired, heck you can take morning classes at American River (local J.C. in Sacto) if you really have the bug. :p I'm sure your dad didn't say "son, promise me you will go to college...immediately out of your 5th year of high school without working a job at the same time" did he? See? LOTS of wiggle room. And besides...we need you.
I think the kids should go to college, too, but I think this is a well-thought out approach to take. ;)

(Altho, I'm doubtful about how much "real world" these kids ever experienced once they're identified as potential "NBA star" material.)
 

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
Wow, if we get the #1 pick in the lottery, the first call I would make is to John Wall with a guarantee. That guy has the whole package. I think he's a more impressive prospect than Derrick Rose was and look what Rose is doing in the playoffs this year.
 

Warhawk

Give blood and save a life!
Staff member
Petrie said today that whoever they pick with their first pick, it will be someone who definitely will play this year (i.e., not someone who will spend a year overseas, etc.). Which isn't really saying much, but it means if Rubio intends to stay one more year, we won't pick him.
 
Petrie said today that whoever they pick with their first pick, it will be someone who definitely will play this year (i.e., not someone who will spend a year overseas, etc.). Which isn't really saying much, but it means if Rubio intends to stay one more year, we won't pick him.
Well that sucks. What ever happened to the long term planning rather than being only concerned with now?
 
I wouldn't put too much stock in what Geoff Petrie says to the media. He's not gonna reveal anything of substance. Never has.
I disagree. I believe he meant what he said. The Kings need another star player, or they could end up being in the bottom 6 again next yr. It depends too much on the futher development of the young bigs if they can't get someone to contribute.

The team & the Maloofs can't wait, and can't lose a yr without an influx of new blood. Rubio hasn't proven anything yet, and the Kings should move on if he isn't going to play next yr.
 
If I'm Petrie I'm drafting ONLY off of talent alone, not need whatsoever. You can draft based off need when your team is improving and you think you may need to add one player at a specific position to get you over the hump. However, when you win 16 games, it is proof that you have MINIMAL talent on your team to say the least. Therefore, you draft the best player available all day every day (and twice on Sunday).
 

Warhawk

Give blood and save a life!
Staff member
From the article:

League sources say the Wizards are going for Blake Griffin, Ricky Rubio or bust in May's 2009 NBA Draft Lottery. They want an immediate contributor and difference-maker and do not believe any of the other players in the pool will be able to make the impact of those two prospects.
Should the Wizards end up with the third pick or worse, they are expected to trade the pick for a veteran.
Sounds good to me. If they get say, no. 3, let's get Rubio with 1 or 2 (fingers crossed) and trade, say, Kenny (they said they want a veteran, and ours is probably the best-rested veteran "big man" in the league :p ) for the rights to Thabeet. Works for me! ;)
 
From the article:



Sounds good to me. If they get say, no. 3, let's get Rubio with 1 or 2 (fingers crossed) and trade, say, Kenny (they said they want a veteran, and ours is probably the best-rested veteran "big man" in the league :p ) for the rights to Thabeet. Works for me! ;)
I'll drive you to the negotiating table. Hey, I'll drive Kenny to DC.:D
 
I found this on Draftexpress. The evualation system is a little confusing but I think most people will get the gist of it.

Situational Statistics: This Year’s Center Cropby: Matt KamalskyApril 26, 2009-Situational Statistics: This Year’s Power Forward Crop

-Situational Statistics: This Year’s Small Forward Crop


We’re back with another round of analysis using Synergy Sports Technology’s wealth of data to examine which players at the center position excel in which areas. This group of prospects will inevitably be our smallest, since true centers aren’t easy to come by, but it also happens to be our more homogeneous statistically, with nearly every player (even our two international entries) functioning in similar capacities for their respective teams. More than any position, center prospects are often the most thoroughly scrutinized due to the premium put on size and potential by NBA
decision-makers. While players like Hasheem Thabeet are valued because of their defensive ability, offensive efficiency is half the equation and can be a limiting factor for any player.

Considering this group is only eight players deep, we’ve opted once again to single out individuals and discuss what they bring to the table. We’ll pay special attention to the players we view as the top prospects: Hasheem Thabeet and B.J. Mullens.

Hasheem Thabeet’s value comes from his defensive ability, but the development of his offensive game will be integral to his success in the long-term and determine how he is viewed as a player.

Thabeet is going to block shots next year, pull down some rebounds, and face an uphill battle to become a bigger offensive threat than he already is.

Before we look at the difficulties he may face, we first need to take a step back and observe how Thabeet’s role has grown over time on paper. In his first season under Jim Calhoun, he got only 1.3 possessions per game in post up situations (25% of his total offense), and almost one-third of his touches off of basket cuts. This past season, he got nearly 35.1% of his touches on the block, a dramatic improvement from his first season. After almost exclusively earning his touches on hustle plays as a freshman, Thabeet put up 1.08 PPP in 4.1 post up touches per game as a junior, ranking him first on our list in PPP and showing how significantly he improved from his sophomore year (.76 PPP). Obviously, Thabeet grew as a player during his time at Conneticut to the point that he was a viable offensive option this season, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s going to do much scoring in the NBA.

There are a number of reasons to be skeptical about Thabeet’s ability to score on the NBA level. First, he got only 11.8 possessions per-game on the offensive end this season, 5.4 of which came on catch and finish opportunities off of offensive rebounds, cuts, or otherwise. His total touches would rank him second to last amongst our power forward group and in the middle of the pack amongst our centers. He shot 73% on his finishing opportunities, using his size effectively and dunking anything he could, and also shows some ability to get up the floor and make some small contributions in transition. Nearly all of Thabeet’s touches came within 5 feet of the rim, as evidenced by the fact that he only took 14 jumpers all season. His 1.08 PPP on the block was better than any player we looked at with the exception of DaJuan Blair, but his 4.1 touches was below average for a center. Obviously Thabeet did a solid job getting more touches as time went on, but he’s still didn’t generate many scoring chances as a senior in comparison to the players he’s competing with for draft position.

Its more than a bit concerning that Thabeet was already having trouble making his presence felt on the offensive end on the NCAA, however efficient he may have been. He was after all, essentially a giant in a land of midgets. He won’t have anywhere near as big a physical advantage in the NBA as he did in college, which will make things even more difficult on him moving forward.

Thabeet struggles badly trying to create opportunities for himself, being incredibly reliant on the talent and generosity of his teammates to generate offense for him. When he was able to get the ball in scoring position, though, he was a major force. Thabeet scored a point on 62.7% of his half court offensive touches, ranking him first amongst all players we looked at. The problem is that he received such few touches, his 11.8 possessions would place him 25th amongst the power forwards we previously examined.

Considering how obvious his presence is on the court, you have to think that if his coaching staff and teammates saw him as a viable offensive option, he would have received far more touches this past season than he actually did—since obviously everyone involved was looking to win as many games as possible. Subjectively speaking, it wasn’t rare to see Thabeet become very passive on the court and only half-heartedly look for the ball. On top of that, his passing rate was very poor, the lowest in this group, and many potential possessions never even materialized due to his inability to make clean catches, leading to turnovers for others. It’s not a stretch to say that his teammates did not have enough confidence in his offensive skill-level to get him the ball in the half-court.

Players drafted a high as Thabeet are usually expected to offer more than that offensively. At this juncture, Thabeet is still very early in his offensive development. He could continue along his current path, using his post possessions to slowly improve his usage rate, or he could continue to rely on his teammates and remain an efficient, but underdeveloped role-player

B.J. Mullens can catch and finish as well as anyone, but he has an extremely hard time creating his own shot.

The third one-and-done center from Ohio State
in as many years, B.J. Mullens did not have the type of year some expected him to have. Operating under the shadow of last year’s outrageously talented freshman class, Mullens made some strides as the season went on. Before we talk about what held him back, lets to a look at what he already does well. His 1.41 PPP as a finisher was amongst the best in our entire database, which backs up the perception that Mullens is an unusually gifted athlete with very solid hands. Unfortunately, he only got 3.6 opportunities to finish each game, which was far below the average for big men we looked at. Possessing nice speed for a player his size, Mullens is also capable of getting up and finishing in transition according to his situational stats, but he didn’t get all that many opportunities to do so, going 12/14 on the year.

On the block, Mullens scored .85 PPP on 2.8 possessions per game, which is not very impressive. His post game obviously lacks polish, and he clearly has a tendency to force the issue, which you can see in his incredibly poor passing rate, which rival only Hasheem Thabeet in this draft. Still, you would expect to see him get a few more touches in the post considering how few other offensive options Ohio State had this season.

Despite the lack of touches, Mullens had a relatively efficient year with the possessions he did receive, scoring %59.7 of his possessions, good for second amongst all centers. Blessed with awesome athleticism and possessing great hands, Mullens has some unique tools. However, he’s going to need a lot of help to achieve his potential. He has more going for him than Thabeet did at that point in his career, but is nowhere near the defensive presence, and thus may very well have to develop his game while riding the pine, since he’s not likely to get a lot of playing time right away. Mullens will have to put in the work in on his own if he’s to earn playing time, and thus will have to develop a good deal of self-discipline with his work ethic if he’s to reach his potential.



I didn't copy it all, because it was long enough as it is.


 
Another article on Draftexpress. This on Griffin and some of the other PF's in the draft:

Situational Statistics: This Year’s Power Forward Cropby: Matt KamalskyApril 23, 2009Though Blake Griffin is clearly the headliner of this year's group of power forwards, we’ve compiled significant data to thoroughly investigate the depth and versatility of this class from top to bottom to identify trends and make some observations.

Thanks to our friends over at Synergy Sports Technology, we have access to the most thorough situational statistics available today. Synergy keeps track of every possession of a huge amount of college basketball games—thus accumulating an incredible wealth of extremely informative data. Many of these statistics offer excellent insight into the players we evaluate, so we’ve taken the time to compile and sort through them in an effort to distinguish which players are, for instance, the most productive back to the basket threats, the most effective finishers around the basket, the most likely to draw fouls on a given possession, and the most efficient jump shooters. With 24 of the top power forwards tabulated on our spreadsheet, we’ve created a short list of the most interesting things we’ve learned about this year’s crop of prospects.

Before you look at our findings, it is important to realize that there are some limitations to our analysis. For example, prospects on lower level teams will have some games and thus possessions missing each year. The exact breakdown of specific possession types can be highly subjective and thus somewhat inconsistent at times as well, which means that this data always needs to be taken with a grain of salt. We’ve tried to steer away from utilizing data that wouldn’t be considered statistically significant, but considering how short the college season is, that’s not always easy. Our data obviously does not account for neither the strength of a player’s teammates, nor his level of competition.

Findings

Blake Griffin’s spot at the top of draft is more than justified by breaking down his advanced statistics, as it truly emphasizes just how impressive a prospect he is from a physical standpoint.

Not only did Griffin garner the most possessions of any PF in the draft at finishing around the basket per game (7.9), but he's also the #1 finisher as well, connecting on an outrageous 75.5% of his short range attempts, not including post ups. While his overall points per possession (PPP) of 1.08 ranks fourth, thanks to the fact that he’s fouled on 18.5% of his possessions, has finished 51 of his 61 attempts in transition, and ranks amongst the best finishers when cutting to the rim at 1.52 PPP. Athleticism, strength, and tenacity aside, those numbers alone go a long way towards explaining why he’s such a coveted prospect considering he’s managed to generate 20.2 total possessions per game (good for 3rd on our list) while still getting the job done in the post (53% on 7.9 Pos/G).

Another player who really stands out with his ability to finish around the rim is Patrick Patterson, who converts 73% of his opportunities around the basket (4th best), on an outstanding 1.48 PPP (2nd best). Patterson's terrific length and athleticism, combined with his huge hands and tenacity made him quite a force at the college level--which also shows up in his ability to produce efficiently in transition and off basket cuts. His jump-shot, post-up game and ability to create his own shot appear to lack polish, though.

• The age old debate over potential and production will be a key point of debate in the lottery.

Looking over the numbers of our top power forwards, we noticed a number of players who are projected as lottery picks that don’t look the part on paper. Sitting just behind Griffin in our rankings, we find Jordan Hill, who’s overall Points Per Possession of.94 places him slightly below the mean of .98, not quite what one would expect from a potential top-5 draft pick. Looking deeper, we realize that Hill ranks right around the average in a number of areas. He surprisingly connects on just 63.87% of his finishing opportunities not including post ups, and only scores on 49.6% of his logged possessions –sitting just off the mean in both categories. Much of Hill’s lack of efficiency can be attributed to the fact that he only gets fouled on 10.4% of his possessions and gets very few touches in transition (16th at 1.1 Pos/g) and basket cut situations (15th at 1.8), two scenarios where he’s effective ( 1.33 and 1.43 PPP respectively). The other factor working against Hill is his jumper, which we’ll discuss later.

Clearly teams are valuing Hill’s upside quite a bit. He’s already a productive rebounder and has a lot of potential long-term as a defender, but his offense doesn’t stand out amongst his peers. He’s raw, but some teams see his physical profile and athleticism and assume he will be a player that develops into a bigger threat on the next level.

Another player in that boat is Earl Clark, but his production looks a bit poor for other reasons.

One of the more perimeter oriented players in this pool, Clark earns two dubious distinctions. First, he’s the most turnover prone, giving the ball away on 18.7% of his logged possessions. Second, his Points Per Possession of .85 ranks him last on our list. A bit stuck between the three and four position, Clark’s poor PPP stems from the fact that he took 5.3 jump shots per game (1st in our sample) and only managed to get fouled of only 9.3% of his possessions (23rd). Unfortunately, his ability to play the three doesn’t excuse the fact that he falls below the mean FG% in post ups (46% - even), fast breaks (54% - 16% below), pick and rolls (38% - 11% below), isolations (38% - 4% below), and basket cuts (55% - 13% below).

Given Clark’s lack of efficiency across the board, the team that picks him will be banking on him utilizing his athleticism to his advantage to create mismatches and develop the type of consistency he’ll need to be productive. Obviously players who have as many tools as Clark deserve some credit for what they could bring to the table down the road, particularly defensively, but how much remains to be seen.

Clark's Big East
counterpart, Luke Harangody, not only appears to lack significant upside for the NBA
level, but he falls short in many of the key areas we looked at in this study, particularly everything related to efficiency, starting with his post-game, continuing with his jump-shot, as well as his ability to finish effectively around the basket.

• The lack of quality big men in the NCAA allowed DeJuan Blair to overcome his lack of size and then some.

Looking at the post production of the players on our list, Blair’s productivity was impossible to ignore. He posted the highest FG% (59%) and the highest PPP (1.12) of any player on our list in back to the basket situations. Standing 6’7, Blair displayed incredible strength in overcoming his height disadvantage, on a nightly basis. However, he would be well served to improve his jumper to help compensate for the issues he’s bound to run into trying to score against bigger and more athletic players in the NBA on a nightly basis, which could be tough given that his .2 jump shots per game rank last in our sample. He also isn't a great finisher around the rim on non-post up situations, ranking 4th worst in that category.

• Most college PFs will have to adjust their game significantly to be effective in the NBA. A lot of that starts with their ability to face the basket and make mid-to-long-range jumpers.

Blair wasn’t the only player in our database that didn’t do a lot of jump shooting, and many of those that did, didn’t do so very efficiently. Touching on the players we mentioned earlier in this article, it is clear that the top players aren’t exempt from this trend. Blake Griffin made only 9 of the 22 jumpers he attempted this season, meaning he attempted only .7 jumpers per game. Jordan Hill did take more jumpers than the average player on our list at 2.5 per game, but knocked down only 22 of his 76 attempts, or 29%. Earl Clark landed right around the average in terms of FG% on his jump shots at 36% (68/191), but hit a bit more respectable 38% of his pull ups. Clark, along with Damion James and Craig Brackins led the group in jump-shot attempts per game at roughly five, but none of them surpassed 39% accuracy on those attempts.


Synergy isn't the last word in evaluation, but it does give you different ways of looking at a players production, and pointing out the flaws or weaknesses in a players game.



 
Another player who really stands out with his ability to finish around the rim is Patrick Patterson, who converts 73% of his opportunities around the basket (4th best), on an outstanding 1.48 PPP (2nd best). Patterson's terrific length and athleticism, combined with his huge hands and tenacity made him quite a force at the college level--which also shows up in his ability to produce efficiently in transition and off basket cuts. His jump-shot, post-up game and ability to create his own shot appear to lack polish, though.
Who has seen Patterson play? This guys looks interesting.
 
Who has seen Patterson play? This guys looks interesting.


I've seen him play, and in the games I saw he looked solid. He's listed at 6'8", so again your dealing with a so called undersized PF. I don't think he has enough outside skills to play SF, but I've been wrong before. He's one of those guys thats been flying under the radar. He's definitely talented. He's a good rebounder and for the most part a low post player. He appears to have long arms, and if so, that would help make up for his height. There are so many short PF's in the league right now, I don't think it matters anymore, as long as your athletic enough. He strikes me as pretty tough guy who likes to bang.

You never know how all thats going to translate to the NBA. If he drops all the way to 23, I think you would have to consider him.