Draft position thread

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
Here are the odds of landing each specific pick.

1st pick .250
2nd pick .215
3rd pick .178
4th pick .357

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

Some what surprised by these numbers. I didn't think it was more likely that we would end up outside of the top 2.
Yep. And that was always my main goal about stealing last place -- if you come in 2nd or 3rd there begins to be a signifcant chance you can get knocked all the way down to 5th or 6th.
 
Yep. And that was always my main goal about stealing last place -- if you come in 2nd or 3rd there begins to be a signifcant chance you can get knocked all the way down to 5th or 6th.
Good point. I was just ignorant on how heavily the weighted system favors a team falling a few picks.
 
Here are the odds of landing each specific pick.

1st pick .250
2nd pick .215
3rd pick .178
4th pick .357

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

Some what surprised by these numbers. I didn't think it was more likely that we would end up outside of the top 2.
...and we can also figure it this way; The odds are better that we are gonna move up than be stuck at 4... There is a 64.3% chance we land in the top 3...
 

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
...and we can also figure it this way; The odds are better that we are gonna move up than be stuck at 4... There is a 64.3% chance we land in the top 3...

True, but when you are the league's worst team, there is no "moving up". ;)

75% chance we move down from our last place finish, but at least as the worst team we can't fall that far.
 
You guys think there is any chance if we get 4th that GP would move up to snatch Rubio? I really don't want to end up with Thabeet after this horrid season. I really don't see anyone else to really pick there.
 
You guys think there is any chance if we get 4th that GP would move up to snatch Rubio? I really don't want to end up with Thabeet after this horrid season. I really don't see anyone else to really pick there.
I suppose it's possible, it would depend on who has the no.2 pick and how they feel about Rubio and a player that we could draft at 4.
 
Reach for Lawson at 4

If we get the 4th pick I say we pick Ty Lawson and not Brandon Jennings. My reason for this is last year Lawson was going to be a top 5 pick had he came out, but he decided to go back another season. In that season he not only won a championship, but improved his decision making and shot. I'm not sure he's worth of the 4th pick, but after Rubio and Griffin nobody really is so why not go with a guy who's a great PG already rather than hope on potential? I'm a little biased, because I like UNC, but it makes more sense to reach for Lawson than for Jennings who can't even compete in Europe.
 
You guys think there is any chance if we get 4th that GP would move up to snatch Rubio? I really don't want to end up with Thabeet after this horrid season. I really don't see anyone else to really pick there.
If it's any consolation, although I do like Thabeet for this team, I doubt that Geoff would get him. Just not what I perceive as a Petrie-style pick. He'd probably get some shooter instead.
 
Go Dallas!

Tomorrow's Houston/Dallas game is going to determine up to 4 spots for the other first rounder. Depending on what happens in the other games, a Houston win could leave us tied with Denver for the 25-26th picks. If Dallas wins we automatically move to a tie for the 23-25th and with wins by the Spurs and Blazers at home we'd get sole possession of pick 23.

Root for the home teams, while the Nuggets/Blazers game could end up helping or hurting us either way, best case is Blazers and Spurs win with a Dallas win being the key to the whole thing.
 

6th

Homer Fan Since 1985
Go Dallas!

Tomorrow's Houston/Dallas game is going to determine up to 4 spots for the other first rounder. Depending on what happens in the other games, a Houston win could leave us tied with Denver for the 25-26th picks. If Dallas wins we automatically move to a tie for the 23-25th and with wins by the Spurs and Blazers at home we'd get sole possession of pick 23.

Root for the home teams, while the Nuggets/Blazers game could end up helping or hurting us either way, best case is Blazers and Spurs win with a Dallas win being the key to the whole thing.
Go Blazers, Spurs, and Mavericks!!


Blech! I can't believe I said that. :p
 
You guys think there is any chance if we get 4th that GP would move up to snatch Rubio? I really don't want to end up with Thabeet after this horrid season. I really don't see anyone else to really pick there.
No, but there is a possiblilty that Rubio could fall to #4.

Griffin is most definitely #1 no matter who wins the pick. But, a team like OKC might want Thabeet over Rubio, so depending who wins picks #2 or #3, they could pass on Rubio. And, now with the possibility of Wall entering the draft, Rubio could be available to us at all 4 draft picks.
 
Go Dallas!

Tomorrow's Houston/Dallas game is going to determine up to 4 spots for the other first rounder. Depending on what happens in the other games, a Houston win could leave us tied with Denver for the 25-26th picks. If Dallas wins we automatically move to a tie for the 23-25th and with wins by the Spurs and Blazers at home we'd get sole possession of pick 23.

Root for the home teams, while the Nuggets/Blazers game could end up helping or hurting us either way, best case is Blazers and Spurs win with a Dallas win being the key to the whole thing.
It may not make much difference. There will be more quality PGs in the low 20's, but if we get a PG with our #1 pick it may not make any difference unless we're picking another guard.

Now, if we get a big #1 (Griffin,Hill,Thabeet), then again 23 or 25 might get us a better PG. But, the cream of the 2nd tier PG's are going to go in the teens. So, we need to trade up, or try to get someone elses pick in addition to the ones we already have.

The Bucks and the Bobcats, have serious problems signing their players and staying under the Luxury Tax. The Bucks have Sessions & Charle V. to sign and are already over the salary cap. The Bobcat will be over the salary cap if they resign Felton. Signing 1st picks could put one or both teams into the Luxury Tax. I'd like to see the Kings offer their 2010 #1 pick (top 10 protected, and top 5 protected in 2011) for the Bucks or Bobcats 2009 pick.

I know this is a weak draft, but if we don't get a PG at #1, this is the best way to get a starter this year. And, we could come out of this draft with 3 first rounder and the 31st pick.

How does Griffin #1, Ty Lawson or Teague #14, Terrence Williams or Holiday #24, and Danny Green or Calathes at #31 sound.
 

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
How does Griffin #1, Ty Lawson or Teague #14, Terrence Williams or Holiday #24, and Danny Green or Calathes at #31 sound.
Sounds like we'd have a lot of young players getting no playing time next year. I'd prefer we try to combine our lower picks and move up than to draft four players. We'd be lucky to find regular minutes for two rookies, let alone four.
 

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
Finley hits a three! SA is still alive! And it looks like Dallas is handling Houston. A perfect day is still possible.
 

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
Dallas wins, SA wins in OT... only one game left to go!


:D
Egads...Dallas v. San Antonio in the first round? Will anybody outside the state of Texas actually watch that? Will anybody in the state of Texas? Aside from potential car accident voyerism if one if the senior citizens out there collapses and needs a crash cart?
 
Egads...Dallas v. San Antonio in the first round? Will anybody outside the state of Texas actually watch that? Will anybody in the state of Texas? Aside from potential car accident voyerism if one if the senior citizens out there collapses and needs a crash cart?
Without Manu, I bet Dallas takes them out