Forget lottery this year

[CruzDude]

Yep. Forget the Lottery this year. I personally don't think either Oden or Durant is coming out. Both are only 18-19, both come from middle income or better families and have no $$$ urgency and both are having a ball being college kids. I read about that last item every couple of days.

Once you leave college you leave that fun part of your life forever. And they seem to be having a ball. Make down the date, March 7, 2007. Oden and Durant are NOT coming out this year.

 

[bigbadred00]

Yep. Forget the Lottery this year. I personally don't think either Oden or Durant is coming out. Both are only 18-19, both come from middle income or better families and have no $$$ urgency and both are having a ball being college kids. I read about that last item every couple of days.

Once you leave college you leave that fun part of your life forever. And they seem to be having a ball. Make down the date, March 7, 2007. Oden and Durant are NOT coming out this year.

What makes you say that? What would be the advantage other than college is fun. What makes the pros so bad? What happens if either of them gets hurt seriously? They are risking a lot of money to have another year of fun. You can always go back to college. Both players are more polished than most freshman. Honestly, if I had a child, and if they had a chance to make a ton of money early on in the NBA, I'd definitely let them. If they spend wisely, they will have enough money to go back to college if they ever desired to do so. The chance to play in the NBA and make a lot of money (yes money isn't every thing but it doesn't hurt) can't be so easily passed up.

When it comes to less talented players or those that need more polishing, I can definitely see staying in college or going to college (see Kwame Brown, Livingston, etc.) but these guys should and probally will come out even if they are having a grand old time.

 

[Jerryaki]

marc stein made the point that they'd be giving up quite a bit of money by staying even one extra year, since in 5 years (?) they would be playing out the last year of a measly rookie contract instead of the first year of a max extension.

simmons also uses the livingston knee to illustrate that at any moment they may get injured, so it's best for their futures to come out now.

i think they'll come out. if not, a lot of lottery teams are screwed this year!

 

[Packt]

I wouldn't be so confident about that. The Nikes', Addidas', UpperDeck's, of the world haven't even begun to make serious offers. Injury risks will be a huge selling point, with Shaun Livingston's freak injury as an example.

Of the two, maybe Oden might stay another year. His game doesn't have the dazzle that endorsement companies like and they might not go after him as hard. I'd be surprised if Durant stayed another year.

 

[LA King Fan II]

Besides...

It's obvious the Kings will draft Aaron Afflalo of UCLA next year at around 13. He's exactly what they don't need.

 

[Heuge]

Not so fast, look at the schedule from here on out, it is brutal.

 

[fnordius]

Besides...

It's obvious the Kings will draft Aaron Afflalo of UCLA next year at around 13. He's exactly what they don't need.

There's still a chance that we could get, say, Acie Law and Stephane Lasme -- the sorts of guys we actually need, rather than the best totally redundant benchwarmer available. Of course that would be a completely un-GP thing to do, but we can always hope.

And our schedule is going to be brutal from here on out, so I don't think the playoffs are a foregone conclusion by any means. Plus, as long as Ron's out, we now have some of the worst D in the NBA. Unless everyone else is tanking their brains out, a pick around 8-14 is still possible -- I'd even call 11-14 probable.

 

[Troy]

What makes you say that? What would be the advantage other than college is fun. What makes the pros so bad? What happens if either of them gets hurt seriously? They are risking a lot of money to have another year of fun. You can always go back to college. Both players are more polished than most freshman. Honestly, if I had a child, and if they had a chance to make a ton of money early on in the NBA, I'd definitely let them. If they spend wisely, they will have enough money to go back to college if they ever desired to do so. The chance to play in the NBA and make a lot of money (yes money isn't every thing but it doesn't hurt) can't be so easily passed up.

When it comes to less talented players or those that need more polishing, I can definitely see staying in college or going to college (see Kwame Brown, Livingston, etc.) but these guys should and probally will come out even if they are having a grand old time.

That's what I'm thinking. I'm all for going to school and finishing your 4 year degree, but with the buzz this year about these 2 coming out and being drafted and making millions guaranteed...I think they should come out still. They are in a very rare situation with their size, skills, and both are highly desired. Some franchises are tanking to have a chance and getting them and hopefully having 1 of those guys be their franchise guy for years to come. Risking injury on the court or off is very real and they should really think hard about it. You don't turn your back on millions, especially a young athlete and one of which there is such buzz around the NBA this year as being a strong draft.
Then again I thought you had to have 3-4 years of college before being able to be drafted, no more high school kids. How many years of college do you need, at least 2 years and can be draft after your sophomore year?

 

[BMiller52]

That's what I'm thinking. I'm all for going to school and finishing your 4 year degree, but with the buzz this year about these 2 coming out and being drafted and making millions guaranteed...I think they should come out still. They are in a very rare situation with their size, skills, and both are highly desired. Some franchises are tanking to have a chance and getting them and hopefully having 1 of those guys be their franchise guy for years to come. Risking injury on the court or off is very real and they should really think hard about it. You don't turn your back on millions, especially a young athlete and one of which there is such buzz around the NBA this year as being a strong draft.
Then again I thought you had to have 3-4 years of college before being able to be drafted, no more high school kids. How many years of college do you need, at least 2 years and can be draft after your sophomore year?

You only need 1 year of college.

 

[CruzDude]

College is nearly free for players like them anyway. And with extra good home situations, you only go around once.

Sure you can go back to college if your in the NBA. But when? day classes? Not from October to May or June except for hit and miss. And no campus life except July-Aug-Sept when everyone is on vacation anyway.

Injury fears? Sure. You can get hit walking across the street. But you only go around once in life. And college, when handed to you on a platter, is Golden!!

The Livingston injury? a once in a lifetime (NBA wise) injury. He is out of the NBA and could go back to college during a year of rehab. Not the way to do it but the silver lining anyway.

 

[Jerryaki]

the point isn't that these guys can't afford college. i really don't think the joy of college life is attractive enough compared to the potential of earning millions and setting your family up for life.

and you may very well get hit by a car (knock on wood) any day of the week, which is why you'd ideally like that long term contract locked up.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

They would be absolutely nuts to stay when they are virtually guaranteed going 1-2 in the draft. Sure if you're a late lottery pick at best there might be some reason to stay for a year but they are the top of the class. Why chance it? You don't even have to get hurt, look what sticking around an extra year did for Corliss's draft chances back in the 90's.

I think our best chance to take advantage of the draft if we don't miraculously get lucky with a top pick is to make a major draft day trade. So if we don't get the pick lets hope a team with an overabundance of young big men do and we can get one of those in exchange for Bibby or Artest.

 

[beb0p]

Keep in mind, Oden volunteered to redshirt this season after his preseason injury. Would someone who is thinking of "one and done" ever volunteers to sit out an entire season?

He still may come out. But it'd help his game in the long run if he stays, and the kid is talking like he knows it too.

Durant, however, is almost a foregone conclusion that he's leaving college.

 

[JB_kings]

It comes down to a decision of injury. These guys know they have a huge risk in going back for another year. Their stock is not going to get any higher. However there is the real risk of injury and they lose at least 10s of millions of dollars if they do get injured.

 

[kennadog]

They would be absolutely nuts to stay when they are virtually guaranteed going 1-2 in the draft. Sure if you're a late lottery pick at best there might be some reason to stay for a year but they are the top of the class. Why chance it? You don't even have to get hurt, look what sticking around an extra year did for Corliss's draft chances back in the 90's.

I think our best chance to take advantage of the draft if we don't miraculously get lucky with a top pick is to make a major draft day trade. So if we don't get the pick lets hope a team with an overabundance of young big men do and we can get one of those in exchange for Bibby or Artest.

I don't think anybody will trade a high draft pick for Bibby, when he could turn around and opt out of his contract a few days later. And good luck getting a high draft pick for Artest.

 

[Chim Richulds]

Even if Oden and/or Durant don't enter the draft this year, there is still a great depth of talent in this year's draft.

Frankly, Oden & Durant could use another year in the NCAA. Both could use additional development, and Durant could benefit from some extra weight. I'd hate to see these guys NOT make an instant impact in the NBA.

And hey, should they stay another year, we might just have a better shot at getting them.

 

[Gilles]

Oden is too scared after his wrist injury.
There's a slight possibility that Kevin will stay but Texas doesn't have elite freshmen class next year so there's not much chance for National Title and I doubt desire to win NPOY(if Tucker gets it this year) will stop him from declaring.

 

[CruzDude]

Posted in the Dallas Morning News today, March 8 was this tidbit. Click to enlarge and read

 

[BMiller52]

Posted in the Dallas Morning News today, March 8 was this tidbit. Click to enlarge and read

He's still coming out, he's just saying that. Trust me the guy is as good as gone.

 

[fnordius]

My sophomore year in college was a great experience, but there is no way I would have turned down several million dollars to do it, particularly if it came with the risk of an injury which could ultimately cost me $200M. I'm sure you could buy a small college for that.

Unless I hear that one of the top draft candidates just flunked their "Logic and Critical Thinking" class, I'm assuming that they'll be available this summer.

 

[CruzDude]

Sunday, 18 March. Texas looses to USC (yea!! my Alma Mater) and Durant says he feels bad he did not player hard or better. Guess he really HAS to come back next year to make amends and not leave on an early tournament exit, eh?

 

[Packt]

He can always cry on the shoulders of the 50 million dollar contract Nike is rumored to give him, and that's not even mentioning the guaranteed 15 million from the NBA. Only 19, and could have 65 million to his name just for not going back to school. Guys like Ainge and Jordan doing are their best to make sure he realizes that.

 

[CruzDude]

March 20, 2007. ESPN Daily Dime article by John Hollinger included this tidbit:

Phewwwwww" . . . that was the relieved reaction from a number of different executives after Ohio State avoided a huge second-round upset to Xavier. The thinking was that an Ohio State loss could have caused center Greg Oden to more seriously consider staying in school. Oden has been back and forth on the topic all year, but an early-round loss combined with a lackluster effort from Oden could have convinced him that he's not ready for the pros.

Key word there was "lackluster". I don't think he is ready yet either. While he is the Adonis of the "bigs" he is also not dominating in college yet. Another year and he could be a bigger Duncan.

 

[Vlade4GM]

March 20, 2007. ESPN Daily Dime article by John Hollinger included this tidbit:

Phewwwwww" . . . that was the relieved reaction from a number of different executives after Ohio State avoided a huge second-round upset to Xavier. The thinking was that an Ohio State loss could have caused center Greg Oden to more seriously consider staying in school. Oden has been back and forth on the topic all year, but an early-round loss combined with a lackluster effort from Oden could have convinced him that he's not ready for the pros.

Key word there was "lackluster". I don't think he is ready yet either. While he is the Adonis of the "bigs" he is also not dominating in college yet. Another year and he could be a bigger Duncan.

I still think he'll be a good player in his rookie year, especially with a healed right hand. It shouldn't stump his growth or anything if he comes out now, the only thing it really effects is how good his rookie year will be. Which I don't think he cares a whole lot about.

 

[HndsmCelt]

One of them (Oden presumably) MIGHT not delcare but since that gaurentees the OTHER player to be the #1 pick no way they BOTH sit out. All the moeny arguemnts for declaring are good but there is one more thing... pride. Every top college player wnats to be a number one pick and opting to stay in school once your are sure to be THIS years number one pick makes no sense when you can be shure the OTHER guy stayaing in school will get the number one slot. Now if Oden declares I can see Durant staying in just to be sure of being number one NEXT year but I doubt it. I see BOTH guys declaring this season.

 

[LPKingsFan]

Every top college player wnats to be a number one pick and opting to stay in school once your are sure to be THIS years number one pick makes no sense when you can be shure the OTHER guy stayaing in school will get the number one slot.

...unless you're Joakim Noah, and that hasn't worked out very well for him this year.

 

[Spike]

Don't underestimate the college experience at schools like Texas. Besides, where else than Ohio State can you regularly burn couches? I wouldn't be surprised if they stayed.

 

[fnordius]

Being drafted early didn't seem to hurt guys like Kobe or KG any. On the contrary, I think that some players don't face good enough opponents in college, and never become great until they're forced to up their performance a few notches. Until then, they just play to the level of the competition, which is never NBA quality.

 

[Bricklayer]

Given who/what Greg Oden is, there is absolutely no advantage to him staying in school, other than just the experience of being in school. Which is normally a good and valuable thing. But not when you are talking about being worth 8 figures the instant you declare for the draft. And his developmenmt should come FASTER by him declaring than not. He comes to the NBA, will be playing against better opponents, will be focused solely on basketball, will be playing in far more games, and as a #1 and presumed superstud in the making, is absolutely going to start and pay every available minute no matter how much he struggles (which isn't going to be much). This is nto some kid who remotely has to worry about getting buried and forgotten on the bench. Oh, and all of that's while racking up tens of millions of dollars in contract money and endorsements just based on the hype.

 

[kupman]

Given who/what Greg Oden is, there is absolutely no advantage to him staying in school, other than just the experience of being in school......

Oh, and all of that's while racking up tens of millions of dollars in contract money and endorsements just based on the hype.

This is my take on the situation....and it is just my take.

The other advantage to staying in school for a 2-4 years is the issue of emotional and intellectual maturity. The tens of millions of dollars is very difficult to handle, especially when you are 18-20 years of age without a college education. Although it can still be difficult to handle, I do believe that a 22-23 year old with a college education may be better equipped to adapt to such an insane situation which then enhances the players ability to achieve overall success in his life.