Looking ahead to the 2022 Draft
- Thread starter Tetsujin
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How is Holmgren going to guard perimeter players on the wing? The closest comp to Holmgren is Porzingas, and Holmgren is slighter of frame and probably even more fragile than Porzingas. Frankly, I feel for Holgren when he gets into the NBA. He's going to be like a stick figure getting slammed in his mid-section by NFL linebackers without the pads. They don't protect big men in the NBA like they do guards. If he can make it through a whole season I'd give him a merit badge just for his mental fortitude.
As empty gym workouts go, this is incredibly unimpressive. On most of these dribble moves he's either traveling or he's going to get his pocket picked because he's not protecting the ball. What's the point of this workout? We already knew he could dunk. Show me that he can get to the basket against an NBA defender, that he can catch and shoot from behind the arc, that he can pass off the dribble. Those are skills which are actually useable in a game.
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Drafting big guys and then trying to pretend they're wing players (Jason Thompson, Thomas Robinson, Marvin Bagley) is another Kings basketball tradition I'd rather not continue. Holmgren moves very well for his size and he can drive to the basket and shoot from outside -- those are skills which should help him succeed in the NBA -- but he's not a wing, he's a center. If we draft him he'll be splitting frontcourt minutes with Sabonis, Lyles, Metu, Holmes, and Queta. Damian Jones is probably gone in FA at that point.
The only prospect Chet (sortof) reminds me of is Anthony Davis. They have different body types of course but both of them looked very comfortable handling the ball and attacking the basket and both of them are freakishly nimble and capable of navigating multiple switches to protect the basket on defense. Chet is also prepared for the modern NBA because he's got that outside jumper already. I'm really not trying to pick him apart -- I think in terms of overall potential he's probably the #1 pick this year. And Davis is an 8-time All Star who has led the league in blocks per game three times but also won only 1 playoff series before joining Lebron on the Lakers. As a best-case scenario comparison, I'm not sure AD is even a top 25 player in the league at this point. He's yet another big man who flashes brilliance but can't manage to stay healthy.
So this is really only about one thing for me... I just can't sell myself on taking another big in the top 5. Each prospect is unique but there's a tidal wave of evidence that says drafting a big man at the top of the lottery over comparable wing or guard talent is almost always a mistake.
The only prospect Chet (sortof) reminds me of is Anthony Davis. They have different body types of course but both of them looked very comfortable handling the ball and attacking the basket and both of them are freakishly nimble and capable of navigating multiple switches to protect the basket on defense. Chet is also prepared for the modern NBA because he's got that outside jumper already. I'm really not trying to pick him apart -- I think in terms of overall potential he's probably the #1 pick this year. And Davis is an 8-time All Star who has led the league in blocks per game three times but also won only 1 playoff series before joining Lebron on the Lakers. As a best-case scenario comparison, I'm not sure AD is even a top 25 player in the league at this point. He's yet another big man who flashes brilliance but can't manage to stay healthy.
So this is really only about one thing for me... I just can't sell myself on taking another big in the top 5. Each prospect is unique but there's a tidal wave of evidence that says drafting a big man at the top of the lottery over comparable wing or guard talent is almost always a mistake.
Holmgren has a way stronger base and better lateral quickness than Porzingis. People thought those same things about him in college. He needs to gain some size/strength but he backs up his play with physicality. Defensively I think he's about the same as Anthony Davis coming in. AD was bigger even at that point but he's got the same level of being able to play outside defensively and create havoc with his length on recovery and help from what I've seen.
Way stronger base? I saw a 6'5" college player bump into him and he crumpled like a top-heavy leggo set. C'mon. I don't buy at all that he is stronger than Porzingas. And even if he were, that's not saying much. He has a lot of nice attributes, but in the strength category he's at the bottom of the barrel, which unfortunately for him is extremely important for bigs in the NBA. He's a very risky pick in the top of the draft.
They are all risky picks. They are barely adults and are getting paid like CEOs without having proven they will behave like professionals. I would have loved to hear your comments about Garnett or Durant coming into the league (that said - you could be correct about Holmgren).
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And we've also seen bigs like Duren try to dominate him and lose that battle at times. Not stronger, stronger base and more physical. Porzingis couldn't post up De'Aaron and loathes contact. Zinger is a good player but this is the comparison here. His knock knees have always been sketchy. Holmgren is pretty sturdy but anyone that tall and that skinny can get caught by lower center of gravity.
Eh, it's open floor vs. through traffic and change of direction. Faster? Maybe not, but I think he has quicker change of direction and part of that is his ball handling ability and probably carrying less weight. That's the scary question with Holmgren, if he adds weight does that ability disappear? Yeah AD has slowed down quite a bit so it's likely to an extent. The handling shouldn't fade. I think they are on par athletically with AD maybe having the overall edge at that stage.
I could easily see Holgren winning the battle "at times." The problem lies in the fact that over an 82 game schedule with (hopefully) playoff games he's going to wear down to an emaciated poster child for world hunger. And I ask you, how can he possibly wear down any more than he already is? Did you see Perkins next to the kid? Looking at them both together I couldn't help wondering how Perkins was thinking he would break this kid into splinters if he were back in the NBA.
There are plenty of big tough centers in the NBA that would absolutely love to pound this kid whenever they could get a chance, especially if he goes #1. Sabonis, for one. I don't have to give you a list on the others. You don't need Shaq around to think this kid couldn't make it through an NBA season. He has the skill. He has the length. But unless he has the strength he's on the endangered species list.
If your asking if AD could have done that? Yes! AD was one of the most athletic big's I've ever seen. He did things on the court that few others could do. One of the things you have to know when scouting a player, is who is his head coach, and what system do they play. Calipari usually chained is big man to the post and wouldn't allow him to stray from there. If AD, or KT, or Cousins were to take the ball and go end to end, they would probably be sitting on the bench after the play. Players can't do what they want to do whenever they feel like it.
Would I say that AD was quicker than Holmgren at the same point in time? Yes, and I don't think it's even close. Make no mistake, I love Holmgren, but I have to keep it real. As far as ballhandling skills, probably close. Remember that AD became a top recruit when he grew from 6'3" to 6'10" in one offseason, and he played PG before that spurt. So he already had developed ballhandling skills, which he retained to some extent after the growth.
Would I say that AD was quicker than Holmgren at the same point in time? Yes, and I don't think it's even close. Make no mistake, I love Holmgren, but I have to keep it real. As far as ballhandling skills, probably close. Remember that AD became a top recruit when he grew from 6'3" to 6'10" in one offseason, and he played PG before that spurt. So he already had developed ballhandling skills, which he retained to some extent after the growth.
