Possible lottery picks in the 2022 draft:
- Thread starter bajaden
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Been trying to find a prospect to differentiate the #5 spot on my BPA and think it's AJ Griffin right now. He'll have absolutely 0 issue guarding wings, something that's a little bit of a rarity in this draft. The physical profile is tantilizing: 6'6/222 pounds with a 7'0 wingspan and is still going to be 18 on draft day. Incredibly bouncy (although been working his way back from injury all year. It's starting to really show similar to the high school bounce). He's one of the better shooters in the draft that should translate almost immediately with a good release and repeatable stroke. He doesn't get a ton of opportunities to create off the bounce, but he's been showing it a lot more in recent games that he's just not a "3&D" wing and should be a quality shot maker at the next level. Also not afraid to crash the glass and looks to be an active rebounder.
The playmaking is one key aspect we havent seen a ton of and is probably a weakness at this point. 8.5% AST rate isn't good for a guy with his much on-ball talent. This could just be moreso tied into his role as a finisher with such a stacked Duke team, but I'd like to see more. One more slightly concerning aspect is the lack of free throws with his scoring. Could once again be tied to his main role as Duke's spacer, but I'd like to see a better FTr for a dude with his physical profile.
Overall though, he's a true 2/3/4 flex wing that should step in immediately as a great shooter and defender. You can plug him with anybody and he's going to still be an high impact starting-caliber wing at the most rare position in the game. There's enough on-ball scoring potential with him that you see the paths for him popping to all-star level. And even if he doesn't, I think a Mikal Bridges type career arc is well within his range of outcomes.
The playmaking is one key aspect we havent seen a ton of and is probably a weakness at this point. 8.5% AST rate isn't good for a guy with his much on-ball talent. This could just be moreso tied into his role as a finisher with such a stacked Duke team, but I'd like to see more. One more slightly concerning aspect is the lack of free throws with his scoring. Could once again be tied to his main role as Duke's spacer, but I'd like to see a better FTr for a dude with his physical profile.
Overall though, he's a true 2/3/4 flex wing that should step in immediately as a great shooter and defender. You can plug him with anybody and he's going to still be an high impact starting-caliber wing at the most rare position in the game. There's enough on-ball scoring potential with him that you see the paths for him popping to all-star level. And even if he doesn't, I think a Mikal Bridges type career arc is well within his range of outcomes.
I don't think Davis is going to be able to defend 3's like Griffin will be able to. And while I think Davis might have the best on-ball shot creation in the draft, I think he's more of a player you have to feature to be super effective.. I feel pretty confident Griffin is a plug and play with any other star archetype.
Personally, the frame is overblown IMO. He is just an outstanding basketball player period. Bigs don't bang in the post much anymore and the ones that do often get played off the court in the playoffs anyway. He can protect the rim with the best of them. Insane shot blocker and alterer who also has guard skills.
I don't think it's overblown at all. I don't even think there is an NBA body that is comparable. Maybe Bol Bol or Poku on the Thunder? He doesn't even have anything that resembles an NCAA freshman body, let alone an NBA body. Weight isn't only needed to keep Jokic from backing you down in the paint. It's extremely important for your center to be strong under the rim. Richaun isn't even strong enough to handle the job most of the time and he's built for his size.
Chet obviously has length that Richaun doesn't have and that can help compensate but I think he's by far the riskiest pick because it's not like he just needs a couple of offseasons in the gym. His frame might not ever be NBA ready.
If I'm wrong and he's able to compensate for it all with his length, then the sky is the limit.
Chet obviously has length that Richaun doesn't have and that can help compensate but I think he's by far the riskiest pick because it's not like he just needs a couple of offseasons in the gym. His frame might not ever be NBA ready.
If I'm wrong and he's able to compensate for it all with his length, then the sky is the limit.
Risky for sure, but the gamble would be worth it when you see the skillset combined with him not being a total softy. If Poku can even get the size he has, which I'm honestly surprised he's was able to that fast, then I'm not worried about Holmgren.
I was thinking about who he kind of reminds me of and it's Shawn Bradley. He's more skilled with the ball though and more talented obviously although in this era who knows how far Bradley could go. Bradley eventually put on some weight and that was in an era with legit big men, not like now. Yeah, Chet probably ain't sticking Jokic but few can. Fact is, players like that still have to guard him on the other end.
I was thinking about who he kind of reminds me of and it's Shawn Bradley. He's more skilled with the ball though and more talented obviously although in this era who knows how far Bradley could go. Bradley eventually put on some weight and that was in an era with legit big men, not like now. Yeah, Chet probably ain't sticking Jokic but few can. Fact is, players like that still have to guard him on the other end.
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Depends on who is on the board. Right now I wouldn't consider Holmgren before #3 with Smith and Banchero clearly in front for me. If we weren't flush with PGs I'd likely have Ivey in front of him too. Griffin has to be in the discussion there as well. I'm open to other players impressing me enough to beat Holmgren out for #5, but as of now, I think that's about where the risk/reward flips.
You seem to have circled the wagons on Holmgren. One thing to remember when it comes to big men, most of the centers that have had their career shortened, or ended by injury, have been 7 foot 260 lb plus dudes, whose bones couldn't support all that weight. Greg Odom anyone? But players like Garnet or Marcus Camby who were rail thin did just fine.
Hey, I'm not saying it's not a concern, but I'd hate to pass on a player with superstar potential, which he appear's to have.
Hey, I'm not saying it's not a concern, but I'd hate to pass on a player with superstar potential, which he appear's to have.
To me the more immediate concern with Holmgren isn't whether he'll put on weight - it's whether he's able to defend on the perimeter without getting destroyed.
I don't know that he'll ever be a full time center, but it's very likely that his rookie year he's going to play the four spot next to a traditional center the same way Mobley is being used by Cleveland.
I don't know that he'll ever be a full time center, but it's very likely that his rookie year he's going to play the four spot next to a traditional center the same way Mobley is being used by Cleveland.