Kings at 9

Capt. Factorial

Capt. Factorial

ceterum censeo delendum esse Argentum
Staff member
#152
#152
With the season no officially over, let's check in on where we are in the lotto.

The following teams will finish in the top 7 in some order, and for the purposes of the Kings' pick, the order doesn't matter:
1) e-Houston Rockets
2) e-Detroit Pistons
3) e-Oklahoma City Thunder
4) e-Orlando Magic
5) e-Minnesota Timberwolves
6) e-Cleveland Cavaliers
7) e-Toronto Raptors

The other teams that can/will finish out of the playoffs (and therefore can/will be in the lottery) but are relevant for the Kings are:
8) Chicago Bulls (30-40), @Nets Sat, Bucks Sun
9) e-Sacramento Kings (31-39), @Grizz Fri, Jazz Sun
10) e-New Orleans Pelicans (31-39), @Warriors Fri, Lakers Sun
11) Washington Wizards (32-38), Cavaliers Fri, Hornets Sun
12) p-San Antonio Spurs (33-37), Suns Sat, Suns Sun
13) p-Indiana Pacers (33-37), Lakers Sat, @Raptors Sun
14) p-Charlotte Hornets (33-37), @Knicks Sat, @wizards Sun

The remaining teams that make the play-in games (3 in the West, 1 in the East) will finish ahead of the Kings, and therefore if they lose in the play-in games will pick later than the Kings.

There is only ONE guaranteed win among the six teams that the Kings are still jostling for lotto position with. That comes on Sunday when the Hornets play the Wizards.

Kings best possible finish: 8th, 60 lotto combos, 26.3% chance of top-4 (Kings lose 2, Bulls win 2, Pelicans win 1 or 2)
Kings worst possible finish: t-11th/12th/13th, 15 lotto combos, 7.1% chance of top-4 (Kings win 2, Pelicans lose 1 or 2, Wizards lose 2, Spurs lose 2 and lose play-in, Pacers lose 2 and lose play-in)
 
iowamcnabb

iowamcnabb

Hall of Famer
#153
#153
Capt. Factorial said:
With the season no officially over, let's check in on where we are in the lotto.

The following teams will finish in the top 7 in some order, and for the purposes of the Kings' pick, the order doesn't matter:
1) e-Houston Rockets
2) e-Detroit Pistons
3) e-Oklahoma City Thunder
4) e-Orlando Magic
5) e-Minnesota Timberwolves
6) e-Cleveland Cavaliers
7) e-Toronto Raptors

The other teams that can/will finish out of the playoffs (and therefore can/will be in the lottery) but are relevant for the Kings are:
8) Chicago Bulls (30-40), @Nets Sat, Bucks Sun
9) e-Sacramento Kings (31-39), @Grizz Fri, Jazz Sun
10) e-New Orleans Pelicans (31-39), @Warriors Fri, Lakers Sun
11) Washington Wizards (32-38), Cavaliers Fri, Hornets Sun
12) p-San Antonio Spurs (33-37), Suns Sat, Suns Sun
13) p-Indiana Pacers (33-37), Lakers Sat, @Raptors Sun
14) p-Charlotte Hornets (33-37), @Knicks Sat, @wizards Sun

The remaining teams that make the play-in games (3 in the West, 1 in the East) will finish ahead of the Kings, and therefore if they lose in the play-in games will pick later than the Kings.

There is only ONE guaranteed win among the six teams that the Kings are still jostling for lotto position with. That comes on Sunday when the Hornets play the Wizards.

Kings best possible finish: 8th, 60 lotto combos, 26.3% chance of top-4 (Kings lose 2, Bulls win 2, Pelicans win 1 or 2)
Kings worst possible finish: t-11th/12th/13th, 15 lotto combos, 7.1% chance of top-4 (Kings win 2, Pelicans lose 1 or 2, Wizards lose 2, Spurs lose 2 and lose play-in, Pacers lose 2 and lose play-in)
Click to expand...

are tie breakers coin flips?
 
iowamcnabb

iowamcnabb

Hall of Famer
#155
#155
Utah might not rest their starters against us since they are fighting with Phoenix for the number one spot.

Chicago will be facing a Nets and Bucks team that may rest a few guys and the Bulls don’t own their pick so they will be trying to sneak out two victories
 
steelevt

steelevt

All-Star
#157
#157
SacTownKid said:
Dude, the MF'ing Warriors are probably going to get a lottery pick higher than Sac. Now is where you have to hope that the luck of Vlade stuck around because he certainly had that going for him even if sense didn't always follow.
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So THAT is why vlade was seen at the game the other day. Mooch off his luck but don’t let him make any dumb decisions. Vivek is a genius!
 
sactowndog

sactowndog

All-Star
#160
#160
Capt. Factorial said:
With the season no officially over, let's check in on where we are in the lotto.

The following teams will finish in the top 7 in some order, and for the purposes of the Kings' pick, the order doesn't matter:
1) e-Houston Rockets
2) e-Detroit Pistons
3) e-Oklahoma City Thunder
4) e-Orlando Magic
5) e-Minnesota Timberwolves
6) e-Cleveland Cavaliers
7) e-Toronto Raptors

The other teams that can/will finish out of the playoffs (and therefore can/will be in the lottery) but are relevant for the Kings are:
8) Chicago Bulls (30-40), @Nets Sat, Bucks Sun
9) e-Sacramento Kings (31-39), @Grizz Fri, Jazz Sun
10) e-New Orleans Pelicans (31-39), @Warriors Fri, Lakers Sun
11) Washington Wizards (32-38), Cavaliers Fri, Hornets Sun
12) p-San Antonio Spurs (33-37), Suns Sat, Suns Sun
13) p-Indiana Pacers (33-37), Lakers Sat, @Raptors Sun
14) p-Charlotte Hornets (33-37), @Knicks Sat, @wizards Sun

The remaining teams that make the play-in games (3 in the West, 1 in the East) will finish ahead of the Kings, and therefore if they lose in the play-in games will pick later than the Kings.

There is only ONE guaranteed win among the six teams that the Kings are still jostling for lotto position with. That comes on Sunday when the Hornets play the Wizards.

Kings best possible finish: 8th, 60 lotto combos, 26.3% chance of top-4 (Kings lose 2, Bulls win 2, Pelicans win 1 or 2)
Kings worst possible finish: t-11th/12th/13th, 15 lotto combos, 7.1% chance of top-4 (Kings win 2, Pelicans lose 1 or 2, Wizards lose 2, Spurs lose 2 and lose play-in, Pacers lose 2 and lose play-in)
Click to expand...
Would be interesting to hear your projection on where we land.
 
Capt. Factorial

Capt. Factorial

ceterum censeo delendum esse Argentum
Staff member
#162
#162
Lotto check-in time!

The Kings can now only finish in 8th, 9th, or 10th.

8) Chicago Bulls (30-40), @Nets Sat, Bucks Sun
9) Sacramento Kings (31-40), Jazz Sun
10) New Orleans Pelicans (31-40), Lakers Sun

It's very likely that the Kings will end up in a tie one way or another, but it's still possible for them to end up in the 8th, the 9th, or the 10th spot on their own.

Kings best possible finish: 8th, 60 lotto combos, 26.3% chance of top-4 (Kings lose, Bulls win 2, Pelicans win)
Kings worst possible finish: 10th, 30 lotto combos, 13.9% chance of top-4 (Kings win, Bulls lose at least 1, Pelicans lose)
 
sactowndog

sactowndog

All-Star
#163
#163
Capt. Factorial said:
Lotto check-in time!

The Kings can now only finish in 8th, 9th, or 10th.

8) Chicago Bulls (30-40), @Nets Sat, Bucks Sun
9) Sacramento Kings (31-40), Jazz Sun
10) New Orleans Pelicans (31-40), Lakers Sun

It's very likely that the Kings will end up in a tie one way or another, but it's still possible for them to end up in the 8th, the 9th, or the 10th spot on their own.

Kings best possible finish: 8th, 60 lotto combos, 26.3% chance of top-4 (Kings lose, Bulls win 2, Pelicans win)
Kings worst possible finish: 10th, 30 lotto combos, 13.9% chance of top-4 (Kings win, Bulls lose at least 1, Pelicans lose)
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amazing to have a 50% change on the turn of a couple games.
 
sactowndog

sactowndog

All-Star
#164
#164
Capt. Factorial said:
If I had to throw out a wild guess I'd say the Bulls and Pelicans end up tied for 8/9 at 31-41, we finish up alone in 10th at 32-40, with the Wizards in the 11th spot (probably tied with the Spurs, so 11/12) at 33-39.
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losing tonight’s game may have thrown this off. I suspected we would win this game but TD’s 2-12 from 3 saved us.
 
iowamcnabb

iowamcnabb

Hall of Famer
#165
#165
I’d have to think tied for 8th is the most likely at this point?

the Kings are going to have a tough one against the Jazz no matter who they sit.

the New Orleans All Stars (you know, the team with a generational talent and another star) will almost certainly lose to the Lakers

The no pick bulls will probably pull an upset against either the Bucks or Nets.

so the Kings and Nawlins lose and the bulls win one of two.
 
Section 101

Section 101

All-Star
#166
#166
iowamcnabb said:
I’d have to think tied for 8th is the most likely at this point?

the Kings are going to have a tough one against the Jazz no matter who they sit.

the New Orleans All Stars (you know, the team with a generational talent and another star) will almost certainly lose to the Lakers

The no pick bulls will probably pull an upset against either the Bucks or Nets.

so the Kings and Nawlins lose and the bulls win one of two.
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The Suns have the tie breaker over the Jazz. The Jazz will need a win.

Suns play the Spurs twice who are locked into 10th.
 
Jkbiker

Jkbiker

Starter
#167
#167
iowamcnabb said:
I’d have to think tied for 8th is the most likely at this point?

the Kings are going to have a tough one against the Jazz no matter who they sit.

the New Orleans All Stars (you know, the team with a generational talent and another star) will almost certainly lose to the Lakers

The no pick bulls will probably pull an upset against either the Bucks or Nets.

so the Kings and Nawlins lose and the bulls win one of two.
Click to expand...
So I agree Kings.NO both prob lose
1st Bulls Game- Bulls no incentive either way, Nets would like to clinch 2nd seed - I Pick Nets
2nd Bulls Game - Bucks may be locked at 3 seed - so Bucks will rest Bulls win

So tied for 8th it is
 
Capt. Factorial

Capt. Factorial

ceterum censeo delendum esse Argentum
Staff member
#169
#169
Lotto check-in time!

With the Bulls loss today, the Kings can now tie for 8th at best, they can't get into the 8 spot outright. It all comes down to tomorrow, with all relevant teams hosting their games:

8) Chicago Bulls (30-41), vs. Bucks
9) Sacramento Kings (31-40), vs. Jazz
10) New Orleans Pelicans (31-40), vs. Lakers

Kings best possible finish: tied 8th/9th, 53 lotto combos, ~23% chance of top-4 (Kings lose, Bulls win, Pelicans win)
Kings worst possible finish: 10th, 30 lotto combos, 13.9% chance of top-4 (Kings win, Pelicans lose)
 
pdxKingsFan

pdxKingsFan

So Ordinary That It's Truly Quite Extraordinary
Staff member
#174
#174
SacTownKid said:
And they play the lakers at seed 2? I'm not sure how the play in works. If it comes down to the the Lakers or W's I'd avoid playing the Lakers at all costs. They better win this if that's how it goes.
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My understanding (as someone explained here, so grain of salt, but sounds legit) is 7 plays 8 for the 7th seed. 9 plays 10 for right to advance. Loser of 7/8 plays winner of 9/10 for 8.
 
T

theclash4u5

Starter
#178
#178
Capt. Factorial said:
The 3-way tie is now achieved.

There will be a coin flip of some sort for pre-lottery position. The lotto combos will be split between the three teams evenly (so 45 combos each). We will have about a 20.3% chance of moving up into the top-4.
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If we didn't tie for 8th, 9th and 10th and instead got 10tg outright, what would have been the % of moving up?
 
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