The ONE AND ONLY Luka Doncic discussion thread

[Sactown ExPat]

Does it make any difference that Tim MacMahon is the one that said it on Woj's podcast? I heard it at work today, and thought it shed some light on why the Kings were so off Luka's trail from the get go. Then I threw up in my mouth a little bit.

No. Did he say it on Woj’s podcast? Then it’s part of Woj’s narrative.

Look, I surmise McMahon’s overall supposition is generally correct—Vlade and Peja (along with Phoenix, Atlanta, and presumably Memphis) don’t like Luka’s intangibles. But, it certainly runs deeper than not getting along with Doncic Sr. Which is true, and has been widely reported since Luka began starting for Madrid. As stated though, the dad was not in the picture.

I suspect it’s more of a Harden issue. You should all know what that means now.

 

[63royals]

Milwaukee drafted a generational talent in Kareem. He won them a championship and then left for LA. Doesn't all this ranting about Doncic just assume he'd spend his career here? What if he played here a couple of years and then left?

 

[chief bromden]

Milwaukee drafted a generational talent in Kareem. He won them a championship and then left for LA. Doesn't all this ranting about Doncic just assume he'd spend his career here? What if he played here a couple of years and then left?

It'd be difficult to see that he left through all the triple doubles raining down from the G1C rafters

 

[VF21]

MOD NOTE: A few posts have been deleted. KEEP IT CIVIL. There's absolutely no reason to get snarky. Thanks.

 

[NME]

Milwaukee drafted a generational talent in Kareem. He won them a championship and then left for LA. Doesn't all this ranting about Doncic just assume he'd spend his career here? What if he played here a couple of years and then left?

How do you figure he leaves after a couple of years? Drafting a 1st rounder gives the team several years of contract control. Worst-case scenario, if he eventually pulls an AD, he returns a huge trade haul.

 

[SLAB]

I just had to laugh at the last part. Dallas model?
Neither Bagley or Fox will have the career or impact Luka is already having. It’s not even a debatable conversation.

Luka is up for MVP consideration at age 20. Nearly a triple double machine. In addition, Dallas has significantly less overall talent than Sac.
Which makes what Luka is doing even more Amazing. Look at the starters: Disney-Smith, Powell, Brunson, etc. Dallas is 10-5. Are you kidding me.

Bagley and Fox are nice players. Neither one will be a Legend.

Imagine Luka with teammates like Fox and Hield.

 

[hrdboild]

I'm going to throw this out there, because big men usually take 3 to 4 years to really develop into what they ultimately will be. This will be a hypothetical question for y'all.

This assumes Luka stays steady with his current level of being a "triple double" threat every night, like a LeBron or Westbrook level player.

Considering Bagley has all the physical tools to potentially become an efficient 2 way player (good defense and offense), what if Bagley in his 3rd or 4th years develops into a Anthony Davis or Giannis type big, putting up somewhere between 26 ppg, 12 reb, 1.5 blocks, 3 asst and becomes an anchor on defense too.

Will some of you "Luka Lovers" ever accept that we also got a very good All-NBA level player too in the draft or are you done with Vlade, no matter how well Bagley develops in a couple of years?

This is a serious question, I would like to know y'all opinion.

If Vlade had picked Jaren Jackson Jr. or Mo Bamba with that pick instead of Luka I'd still be upset but not as upset as I am about the Bagley pick. I could at least justify either pick as a move to improve on the defensive end. The reason I'm so anti-Bagley is that I graded his situational awareness as a defender in college to be horrible. He wasn't merely average on defense, he was a complete liability despite being the tallest player on the floor and an elite athlete. You're talking about physical tools but there's no precedent for elite athletes with poor situational awareness turning themselves into above average defenders. It just doesn't happen. The reverse is true... guys like Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard were seen as defensive specialists and they built themselves into two-way stars. Bagley (pre-NBA) was a scoring big who doesn't like to pass and doesn't make smart decisions on defensive rotations. Put him on a team that gives him the green light to chuck it up every time down the floor and he's going to give you numbers but they're empty numbers.

That's not me putting him down because he's not Luka, I said all this before the draft. I actually had him #2 on my board for that draft class and Luka at 3 or 4 before he played a single game at Duke. By the time that college season was over I had Luka over Ayton and Bagley around 9 or 10. It takes a lot for me to change my mind on a prospect after I've seen them play a dozen or so games. Of course Bagley is going to get better, everyone gets better. But is he going to get better in the right ways or his he merely going to be a grown up version of who he already was in college?

So to answer your question, if Bagley grows into an MVP level player like Anthony Davis or Giannis Antetokounmpo then of course I'd get over passing on Luka. I have nothing to gain personally from either player's success nor does it benefit me to cling to a false belief after its been proven false. I'm just going off my best guess here based on everything I've seen. Prospects don't enter the league on equal footing for me, they start with whatever I know about them from watching their careers up to that point. Some people call that bias, but I don't see why that's a bad thing. Everybody has bias. Forming hypotheses and then testing them is just how I engage with the world. To sit passively and not have an opinion is not in my nature. I'm not saying my way is better or worse than anyone else's. Actually, when it comes to supporting the Kings its proven to be exponentially worse because this team always drafts players I wouldn't touch. But I can't seem to turn it off so I go on watching to see how many of my hypotheses turn out to be true.

I may have been right about Luka but then I remember how I strongly I believed that Stanley Johnson was going to be Ron Artest without the crazy and Emmanuel Mudiay was going to be an All-Star and that keeps me humble. I'd love to be wrong about Marvin Bagley because the version of history where he wrecks shop on both ends of the floor would be a lot of fun to see. I do like feeling competent so there is some level of gratification in simply being right but that's not the reason I watch sports. Seeing other human beings navigate their own challenges to excel in their chosen profession is inspiring. Seeing people perform to the absolute pinnacle of physical capability is awe-inspiring. Seeing players sacrifice their egos and win together as a team is visual poetry. I want to witness those fleeting glimpses of magic that remind me that the world can never be fully analyzed and understood. These are just words and words never tell the full story. Don't mistake my criticism for Vlade, Marvin or anyone else as ill intent. I use strong words sometimes for effect but I don't really wish harm on anyone. If Vlade makes only smart choices from here out and turns this team around I'll applaud him just as vigorously as I've called for him to be fired. I do hide behind a wall of cynicism more than I'd care to admit but ultimately I want the same thing here that I always want... a happy ending.

 

[63royals]

How do you figure he leaves after a couple of years? Drafting a 1st rounder gives the team several years of contract control. Worst-case scenario, if he eventually pulls an AD, he returns a huge trade haul.

I don't know if he leaves after a couple years, of course. But it's a possibility. Chris Webber only came to Sacramento because the alternative was not getting paid. There have been plenty of players who didn't want to come here. Given league favoritism toward certain teams, it's quite possible a player could establish a reputation here and then move on after the initial contract. Then the Kings would be back in another rebuild. So something could have been said in private that made it clear he didn't want to be here long-term. That would be a reason to draft someone else.

 

[The Effort Police]

Milwaukee drafted a generational talent in Kareem. He won them a championship and then left for LA. Doesn't all this ranting about Doncic just assume he'd spend his career here? What if he played here a couple of years and then left?

Every prospect in the history of forever could do this. What makes Doncic sure-fire going to demand out and Bagley immune to this and never going to cause problems? Doncic is a bit of a f-boy but Bagley's a bit of a diva. Either one may or may not demand out of Sacramento. Unless you're saying that Doncic is a generational talent and Bagley isn't therefore the latter doesn't have the clout to demand out.

Why even make draft picks at all if this is your logic?

 

[jellyfish]

Imagine Luka with teammates like Fox and Hield.

Holmes and Bjelica also..........the lobs/open 3's........

Also the only AD Bagley will/could become is the grade of "a D" for us drafting him (should be an F), the comparisons to Giannis and AD are insane he plays nothing like them he's closer to prime Faried with a sprinkling of Skal.

 

[Joshoua]

I'm going to throw this out there, because big men usually take 3 to 4 years to really develop into what they ultimately will be. This will be a hypothetical question for y'all.

This assumes Luka stays steady with his current level of being a "triple double" threat every night, like a LeBron or Westbrook level player.

Considering Bagley has all the physical tools to potentially become an efficient 2 way player (good defense and offense), what if Bagley in his 3rd or 4th years develops into a Anthony Davis or Giannis type big, putting up somewhere between 26 ppg, 12 reb, 1.5 blocks, 3 asst and becomes an anchor on defense too.

Will some of you "Luka Lovers" ever accept that we also got a very good All-NBA level player too in the draft or are you done with Vlade, no matter how well Bagley develops in a couple of years?

This is a serious question, I would like to know y'all opinion.

An all nba big man doesn’t match an all nba wing maybe 15 years ago

 

[63royals]

Every prospect in the history of forever could do this. What makes Doncic sure-fire going to demand out and Bagley immune to this and never going to cause problems? Doncic is a bit of a f-boy but Bagley's a bit of a diva. Either one may or may not demand out of Sacramento. Unless you're saying that Doncic is a generational talent and Bagley isn't therefore the latter doesn't have the clout to demand out.

Why even make draft picks at all if this is your logic?

It's amazing how much you know about the personalities of these players. Do you attend the practices? Or all of the team meetings? Are you sure of this because of your own personal analysis, or because you are recycling BS from social media?

 

[sergmatt]

It's amazing how much you know about the personalities of these players. Do you attend the practices? Or all of the team meetings? Are you sure of this because of your own personal analysis, or because you are recycling BS from social media?

There were reports that Bagley was upset at Joerger for not starting him at the beginning of last season.

The bigger red flag is that Bagley's dad (Coach Bagley) is a pompous loudmouth Lavar Ball wannabe that spent a lot of last season trashing Joerger on social media. He's also the guy that came up with the "yogurt" name for Joerger.

I think in general it's not a good sign when one of the parents of a rookie makes multiple public statements trashing his coach.

 

[ockingsfan]

TBH, I was a huge Doncic fan and was one of the most adamant posters here that the Kings draft him. In fact, I thought the writing on the wall was pretty clear that Vlade was going to pick Doncic at #2. When he didn't, I was really pissed. I thought it was a huge mistake, which it has proven to be so far.........

But, Doncic is not a King and Bagley is, so I thought it best for one's sanity to move on. You can't go back and re-draft Doncic now.....

But, even though I wanted Doncic really bad, I think that hind sight is always 20/20. I think most on this board wanted Doncic and it wasn't even close. But, most agreed that Doncic had the highest floor, but not necessarily the highest ceiling.

Watching all of his videos, I knew he would be a solid difference maker on offense. Someone that could get you points, assists and rebounds and fill up the box score. But, watching his tape, I think most weren't so sure he would have the "Alpha dawg" in him. He looked like a well rounded offensive player, not necessarily a triple double threat every night, like he is now.

I thought Doncic would top off around 22-24 ppg, 7 reb, 7 asst territory in a couple of years. I didn't really see him as the 30ppg/10reb/10asst player in year 2 and I doubt most on this board thought he would be so dominant offensively. I think everyone knew he was going to have problems on the defensive end.

If Vlade was drafting on "upside" or ceiling, one can reasonably see at the time, Bagley would be considered the player with the higher ceiling. Bagley being the far superior athlete compared to Doncic. Bagley had the offensive game and the athletic ability to be all world NBA, and he still does. No one would had thought that players like Kawhii, Giannis, Siakam, Paul George would become All-NBA watching them in their 2nd year, it took all of them 3 to 4 years before they started to dominate and now they are all top players in the NBA.

My point being, is we should all take a step back and let Bagley mature and develop, before passing final judgement on the draft. He has shown flashes and I think he is 2-3 years away from the player he will ultimately become. I think he can become a perennial All-Star once he gets stronger and develops his game. Bagley's "upside" is still sky high IMHO.

 

[gunks]

Milwaukee drafted a generational talent in Kareem. He won them a championship and then left for LA. Doesn't all this ranting about Doncic just assume he'd spend his career here? What if he played here a couple of years and then left?

It's funny that people have to come up with fantasy scenarios to make the Luka pick bad for the Mavs (he'll just bolt in FA) and the Bagley pick good for us (he'll miraculously turn into AD or Giannis).

Who knows though, one or both of those things could happen. I just think that at this point, it's a weak argument and one that won't necessarily be well received in this particularly angst ridden thread.

I would love to eat crow on this one though.

 

[fnordius]

It's funny that people have to come up with fantasy scenarios to make the Luka pick bad for the Mavs (he'll just bolt in FA) and the Bagley pick good for us (he'll miraculously turn into AD or Giannis).

Who knows though, one or both of those things could happen. I just think that at this point, it's a weak argument and one that won't necessarily be well received in this particularly angst ridden thread.

I would love to eat crow on this one though.

It's funny how that is. Like, I remember thinking that Tyreke Evans wasn't what we needed, but I was willing to give him a chance, and for a couple of years his numbers meant that any criticism would be shouted down. He WAS taking us to the playoffs, he just needed time to develop, dammit! Now that he's possibly done in the NBA, I finally feel like I can say that I think it proved to be a questionable pick, but it's taken me 10 years to get there. As long as someone's still in the league, there's still more to judge, right? It at once makes complete sense, and means that no franchise's execs can be criticized in a timely way. In most cases, not until after they've left the job. Criticism becomes a non-constructive, historical endeavor rather than anything which can cause change. It would be great if we could find some middle ground, but there's no way everybody's going to agree on how much waiting is enough.

 

[tyguy]

Bagley was never the player with the higher ceiling. You need baseline athleticism in the nba, but skill level has always been the most important factor for players.

We have countless examples of extraordinary athletes that wash out because of their low skill level.

Doncic has more than has enough athleticism at 6’7” 235-240 lbs. People should have figured that out over 30 years ago when Larry Bird was dominating the nba. Dumb nba teams continue to make these mistakes, and yes we are one of them.

Fire Vlade.

 

[63royals]

There were reports that Bagley was upset at Joerger for not starting him at the beginning of last season.

The bigger red flag is that Bagley's dad (Coach Bagley) is a pompous loudmouth Lavar Ball wannabe that spent a lot of last season trashing Joerger on social media. He's also the guy that came up with the "yogurt" name for Joerger.

I think in general it's not a good sign when one of the parents of a rookie makes multiple public statements trashing his coach.

There were reports that Bagley was upset at Joerger for not starting him at the beginning of last season.

The bigger red flag is that Bagley's dad (Coach Bagley) is a pompous loudmouth Lavar Ball wannabe that spent a lot of last season trashing Joerger on social media. He's also the guy that came up with the "yogurt" name for Joerger.

I think in general it's not a good sign when one of the parents of a rookie makes multiple public statements trashing his coach.

Really, my beef is with how 24-hour sports networks have reshaped sports talk. They are commercial enterprises and two absolutely unacceptable situations are (1) there's nothing going on right now, and (2) it's too early to tell. That's because the way they make their money is from page hits on their sites and people viewing ads. They have a financial interest in making sure there's always something to argue about. So they have a whole stable of opinionated jerks to get people mad. And on a slow news day they speculate about stuff.

I would think that just about every player in the NBA thinks they ought to be starting. So what? Bagley's dad has shown signs of being a Lavar-Ball-type jerk. Did you notice that after a while we didn't hear any more from old Lavar? Do you remember who the coach was when obvious efforts were made to keep the bozo away from the team and out of the spotlight? Do you think there's a chance that he might have learned something from the experience, and won't let Marvin's dad become a problem? Or do you wave that away because it doesn't fit the narrative?

My other problem is that social media is best at telling the simple story. Emphasize Doncic's virtues and Bagley's faults to make the picture clearer. So all the keyboard GMs can feel superior to Vlade because even their dog would have drafted Doncic. And they pass that around to each other and it becomes truth. Because it's popular, not because it's true. If roid-rage-Ayton had broken Doncic's hand, would we be calling HIM brittle?

 

[hrdboild]

Really, my beef is with how 24-hour sports networks have reshaped sports talk. They are commercial enterprises and two absolutely unacceptable situations are (1) there's nothing going on right now, and (2) it's too early to tell. That's because the way they make their money is from page hits on their sites and people viewing ads. They have a financial interest in making sure there's always something to argue about. So they have a whole stable of opinionated jerks to get people mad. And on a slow news day they speculate about stuff.

I would think that just about every player in the NBA thinks they ought to be starting. So what? Bagley's dad has shown signs of being a Lavar-Ball-type jerk. Did you notice that after a while we didn't hear any more from old Lavar? Do you remember who the coach was when obvious efforts were made to keep the bozo away from the team and out of the spotlight? Do you think there's a chance that he might have learned something from the experience, and won't let Marvin's dad become a problem? Or do you wave that away because it doesn't fit the narrative?

My other problem is that social media is best at telling the simple story. Emphasize Doncic's virtues and Bagley's faults to make the picture clearer. So all the keyboard GMs can feel superior to Vlade because even their dog would have drafted Doncic. And they pass that around to each other and it becomes truth. Because it's popular, not because it's true. If roid-rage-Ayton had broken Doncic's hand, would we be calling HIM brittle?

What special information do you think NBA GMs have access to that the rest of us "keyboard GMs" do not? Luka Doncic started playing in the Euroleague in 2015. Top prospects in the US have their high school games televised now. I have no interest in social media and I don't watch TV so I don't know what the pundits are talking about. I form opinions by watching games. Vlade Divac is an Olympian, an NBA All-Star, and an ambassador for his country. His number is hanging up in Sacramento and it deserves to be there. There is no world in which I would ever feel superior to Vlade, that's not what this is about. Why do you assume that fans aren't capable of watching tape and forming their own opinions?

 

[The Effort Police]

It's amazing how much you know about the personalities of these players. Do you attend the practices? Or all of the team meetings? Are you sure of this because of your own personal analysis, or because you are recycling BS from social media?

I used a combination of reports from the media and my own observation of these players on and off the court. What is so groundbreaking about this? It's no different than saying Ben McLemore has bad BBIQ, or that Willie Cauley-Stein doesn't care enough.

Of course you'd point that out and not your self-defeating logic regarding draft picks.

 

[The Effort Police]

Really, my beef is with how 24-hour sports networks have reshaped sports talk. They are commercial enterprises and two absolutely unacceptable situations are (1) there's nothing going on right now, and (2) it's too early to tell. That's because the way they make their money is from page hits on their sites and people viewing ads. They have a financial interest in making sure there's always something to argue about. So they have a whole stable of opinionated jerks to get people mad. And on a slow news day they speculate about stuff.

I would think that just about every player in the NBA thinks they ought to be starting. So what? Bagley's dad has shown signs of being a Lavar-Ball-type jerk. Did you notice that after a while we didn't hear any more from old Lavar? Do you remember who the coach was when obvious efforts were made to keep the bozo away from the team and out of the spotlight? Do you think there's a chance that he might have learned something from the experience, and won't let Marvin's dad become a problem? Or do you wave that away because it doesn't fit the narrative?

My other problem is that social media is best at telling the simple story. Emphasize Doncic's virtues and Bagley's faults to make the picture clearer. So all the keyboard GMs can feel superior to Vlade because even their dog would have drafted Doncic. And they pass that around to each other and it becomes truth. Because it's popular, not because it's true. If roid-rage-Ayton had broken Doncic's hand, would we be calling HIM brittle?

It's amazing how much you know about the personalities of these players. Do you attend the practices? Or all of the team meetings? Are you sure of this because of your own personal analysis, or because you are recycling BS from social media?

(Also, this conspiracy theory of yours is baffling and makes ZERO sense.)

 

[63royals]

What special information do you think NBA GMs have access to that the rest of us "keyboard GMs" do not? Luka Doncic started playing in the Euroleague in 2015. Top prospects in the US have their high school games televised now. I have no interest in social media and I don't watch TV so I don't know what the pundits are talking about. I form opinions by watching games. Vlade Divac is an Olympian, an NBA All-Star, and an ambassador for his country. His number is hanging up in Sacramento and it deserves to be there. There is no world in which I would ever feel superior to Vlade, that's not what this is about. Why do you assume that fans aren't capable of watching tape and forming their own opinions?

Of course you can form your own opinions. Of course you could be right and I could be wrong. The vast majority agrees with you. I don't dispute that. If you can do your own analysis good for you. I'm responding to the tone of the discussion, the even-my-dog-could-do-better-than-Vlade stuff. The vast majority that thinks Vlade is an idiot includes people like you who actually know something, and a lot of others who like the story for other reasons. The only way that Vlade is not an idiot is if Bagley lives up to his promise. We don't know yet. Because of the way this issue is discussed, that's not considered a rational possibility. We'll see.

 

[Sactown ExPat]

What special information do you think NBA GMs have access to that the rest of us "keyboard GMs" do not? Luka Doncic started playing in the Euroleague in 2015. Top prospects in the US have their high school games televised now. I have no interest in social media and I don't watch TV so I don't know what the pundits are talking about. I form opinions by watching games. Vlade Divac is an Olympian, an NBA All-Star, and an ambassador for his country. His number is hanging up in Sacramento and it deserves to be there. There is no world in which I would ever feel superior to Vlade, that's not what this is about. Why do you assume that fans aren't capable of watching tape and forming their own opinions?

To answer the question, NBA GMs have personal interviews, background info, and medical info that we do not have. I'll simply reiterate my supposition that there was something about Luka's intangibles that Phoenix, Vlade/Peja, and Atlanta did not like--or at least preferred another candidate. As an aside, the crazy thing about last year's draft is that it's, like, one of the all-time top 5s to ever be in any draft and four fan bases are despondent over one guy when everyone got a really great prospect.

Anyway, say what one will about Vlade, but I believe he is pretty plugged in on European talent--particulary talent from the Balkans that grew up at Real Madrid. Phoenix had Igor on staff and was run by McDonough, an Ainge disciple, at the time. Ainge is infamous for his pre-draft personality mapping--presumably McDonough engages in the same. Of course, we can debate whether Sarver made that pick exclusively, or not, and McDonough was bizarrely fired later that summer. I would like to foot stomp that Ayton had significant warts as a prospect, and was not an automatic #1, despite what many people claim today. Atlanta was run by Schlenk, a Warriors/Meyers/West protege, and went with Trey over Luka. Trey's an exciting player, and his defense is sometimes so bad that it's good and he picks up steals by being a zip code away from where he should be and intercepting passes, but he's going to get destroyed in the playoffs. Point being, three front offices that had a very solid grasp on Luka the prospect, all of whom had a positional need (playmaking 4/big PG), decided to pass.

We will probably never know the full reason(s) Luka slid on draft night. Whatever it was, it certainly does not appear to be effecting him right now. But, it's still early in all of these guys' careers and time will tell. At the end of the day, these are all just hiring decisions, and a new employee that blossoms for one division in one geographic location may not have necessarily blossomed somewhere else. It's quite possible all four teams were correct about Luka, and Dallas was fortunate to be the right place for him. I will say that Dallas is somewhat infamous for being accommodating to flamboyant or larger-than-life figures across all sports--again, not saying that's necessarily the issue here, but simply illustrating that all four pro teams in Dallas take big swings on prospects. It's a go huge or go home kind of town.

Two other notes: 1. I do not care what Joerger's comments were on the topic. Joerger is the Jeff Fisher of the NBA. Drafting Luka=new QB=new offense=extension for Joerger...because how can you evaluate Joerger's performance when you just gave him a new PG and he had to install another new offense (i.e. the Jeff Fisher)? Joerger was far more interested in the office politics surrounding the decision than the actual future of any of these prospects.

2. More controversially, we would have had to trade Fox. Yes, we would. Moreover, we would have made the same exact Zinger trade, only not for as many picks (and maybe no picks, depending). Many people think Fox and Luka could have played together, and they are right. On a basketball court, Fox and Luka would fit nicely. Unfortunately, the NBA is a basketball-based entertainment company, and not pure basketball. So, you can't have a team with two rookie contract ball handlers both chasing max extensions in NBA entertainment. One of those guys would have to be the A-lister, and the other will demand out. Back to Zinger--whomever drafted Luka was going to make that Zinger trade. The Zinger is simply too valuable, and too great a fit on paper, for the team that acquired Luka. And now, they are chasing multiple roster holes with very few picks. So, we'll see. But, that was going to be the gamble for whomever selected Luka.

 

[OffTheWallJamal]

Unfortunately it's true about Vlade and Doncic SR relationships, 80's Latvian basketball legend confirmed it, he also said that might be the reason why he passed on Luka him knowing Vlade personally.

I trust his word... at the end where there's smoke, there's fire.

 

[The Effort Police]

TBH, I was a huge Doncic fan and was one of the most adamant posters here that the Kings draft him. In fact, I thought the writing on the wall was pretty clear that Vlade was going to pick Doncic at #2. When he didn't, I was really pissed. I thought it was a huge mistake, which it has proven to be so far.........

But, Doncic is not a King and Bagley is, so I thought it best for one's sanity to move on. You can't go back and re-draft Doncic now.....

But, even though I wanted Doncic really bad, I think that hind sight is always 20/20. I think most on this board wanted Doncic and it wasn't even close. But, most agreed that Doncic had the highest floor, but not necessarily the highest ceiling.

Watching all of his videos, I knew he would be a solid difference maker on offense. Someone that could get you points, assists and rebounds and fill up the box score. But, watching his tape, I think most weren't so sure he would have the "Alpha dawg" in him. He looked like a well rounded offensive player, not necessarily a triple double threat every night, like he is now.

I thought Doncic would top off around 22-24 ppg, 7 reb, 7 asst territory in a couple of years. I didn't really see him as the 30ppg/10reb/10asst player in year 2 and I doubt most on this board thought he would be so dominant offensively. I think everyone knew he was going to have problems on the defensive end.

If Vlade was drafting on "upside" or ceiling, one can reasonably see at the time, Bagley would be considered the player with the higher ceiling. Bagley being the far superior athlete compared to Doncic. Bagley had the offensive game and the athletic ability to be all world NBA, and he still does. No one would had thought that players like Kawhii, Giannis, Siakam, Paul George would become All-NBA watching them in their 2nd year, it took all of them 3 to 4 years before they started to dominate and now they are all top players in the NBA.

My point being, is we should all take a step back and let Bagley mature and develop, before passing final judgement on the draft. He has shown flashes and I think he is 2-3 years away from the player he will ultimately become. I think he can become a perennial All-Star once he gets stronger and develops his game. Bagley's "upside" is still sky high IMHO.

For those who constantly bring it up like me, we can harp on it all day or move on, but for me and I'm sure some others it won't feel like "moving on" but "sticking your head in the sand".

 

[Joshoua]

To answer the question, NBA GMs have personal interviews, background info, and medical info that we do not have. I'll simply reiterate my supposition that there was something about Luka's intangibles that Phoenix, Vlade/Peja, and Atlanta did not like--or at least preferred another candidate. As an aside, the crazy thing about last year's draft is that it's, like, one of the all-time top 5s to ever be in any draft and four fan bases are despondent over one guy when everyone got a really great prospect.

Anyway, say what one will about Vlade, but I believe he is pretty plugged in on European talent--particulary talent from the Balkans that grew up at Real Madrid. Phoenix had Igor on staff and was run by McDonough, an Ainge disciple, at the time. Ainge is infamous for his pre-draft personality mapping--presumably McDonough engages in the same. Of course, we can debate whether Sarver made that pick exclusively, or not, and McDonough was bizarrely fired later that summer. I would like to foot stomp that Ayton had significant warts as a prospect, and was not an automatic #1, despite what many people claim today. Atlanta was run by Schlenk, a Warriors/Meyers/West protege, and went with Trey over Luka. Trey's an exciting player, and his defense is sometimes so bad that it's good and he picks up steals by being a zip code away from where he should be and intercepting passes, but he's going to get destroyed in the playoffs. Point being, three front offices that had a very solid grasp on Luka the prospect, all of whom had a positional need (playmaking 4/big PG), decided to pass.

We will probably never know the full reason(s) Luka slid on draft night. Whatever it was, it certainly does not appear to be effecting him right now. But, it's still early in all of these guys' careers and time will tell. At the end of the day, these are all just hiring decisions, and a new employee that blossoms for one division in one geographic location may not have necessarily blossomed somewhere else. It's quite possible all four teams were correct about Luka, and Dallas was fortunate to be the right place for him. I will say that Dallas is somewhat infamous for being accommodating to flamboyant or larger-than-life figures across all sports--again, not saying that's necessarily the issue here, but simply illustrating that all four pro teams in Dallas take big swings on prospects. It's a go huge or go home kind of town.

Two other notes: 1. I do not care what Joerger's comments were on the topic. Joerger is the Jeff Fisher of the NBA. Drafting Luka=new QB=new offense=extension for Joerger...because how can you evaluate Joerger's performance when you just gave him a new PG and he had to install another new offense (i.e. the Jeff Fisher)? Joerger was far more interested in the office politics surrounding the decision than the actual future of any of these prospects.

2. More controversially, we would have had to trade Fox. Yes, we would. Moreover, we would have made the same exact Zinger trade, only not for as many picks (and maybe no picks, depending). Many people think Fox and Luka could have played together, and they are right. On a basketball court, Fox and Luka would fit nicely. Unfortunately, the NBA is a basketball-based entertainment company, and not pure basketball. So, you can't have a team with two rookie contract ball handlers both chasing max extensions in NBA entertainment. One of those guys would have to be the A-lister, and the other will demand out. Back to Zinger--whomever drafted Luka was going to make that Zinger trade. The Zinger is simply too valuable, and too great a fit on paper, for the team that acquired Luka. And now, they are chasing multiple roster holes with very few picks. So, we'll see. But, that was going to be the gamble for whomever selected Luka.

The Zinger trade would be different with us considering we have more talent. What was the offer or trade? Would be something like Fox/WCS for Porzingis we’d still have Hield and Bogi who would be dallas 2nd and 3rd best players right now. Luka/Buddy/Bogi/Porzingis is an elite level lineup plug in a 3D guy and we’re contenders with that group. Luka would be unstoppable with that spacing/Shooting

 

[SLAB]

I love how we’d “have to trade Fox” like he’s a 1 to 1 comparison with freakin’ Dennis Smith.

If De’Arron is as good as we all claim he is, he adapts and he thrives with a player of that caliber on the roster.

If he doesn’t, then you ship him out and oh well, he isn’t all that we hype him up to be anyways.

 

[jiimbob]

I'm going to throw this out there, because big men usually take 3 to 4 years to really develop into what they ultimately will be. This will be a hypothetical question for y'all.

This assumes Luka stays steady with his current level of being a "triple double" threat every night, like a LeBron or Westbrook level player.

Considering Bagley has all the physical tools to potentially become an efficient 2 way player (good defense and offense), what if Bagley in his 3rd or 4th years develops into a Anthony Davis or Giannis type big, putting up somewhere between 26 ppg, 12 reb, 1.5 blocks, 3 asst and becomes an anchor on defense too.

Will some of you "Luka Lovers" ever accept that we also got a very good All-NBA level player too in the draft or are you done with Vlade, no matter how well Bagley develops in a couple of years?

This is a serious question, I would like to know y'all opinion.

I hear your question but for me, and there’s a lot I like about Vlade, I’m more done with Vlade for what he did in the previous draft.

I can’t rightly say at this point how the Bagley / Luka decision will pan out down the road, it doesn’t look great now but not enough Bagley sample size. Passing on Donovan Mitchell with the 10th pick, a major part of the Cousins trade, stings. I don’t care how many guards we have or that Fox was the pick at 5. Donovan worked out twice for the Kings, great response from what I understood, yet Vlade gets fancy with the two for one. From my armchair Donovan looks better then Buddy.

I would love to see us today if we had rolled with that, then let the 2018 draft play out however. We still might have got a shot at Luka or Bagley.

 

[mac]

If Vlade had picked Jaren Jackson Jr. or Mo Bamba with that pick instead of Luka I'd still be upset but not as upset as I am about the Bagley pick. I could at least justify either pick as a move to improve on the defensive end. The reason I'm so anti-Bagley is that I graded his situational awareness as a defender in college to be horrible. He wasn't merely average on defense, he was a complete liability despite being the tallest player on the floor and an elite athlete. You're talking about physical tools but there's no precedent for elite athletes with poor situational awareness turning themselves into above average defenders. It just doesn't happen. The reverse is true... guys like Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard were seen as defensive specialists and they built themselves into two-way stars. Bagley (pre-NBA) was a scoring big who doesn't like to pass and doesn't make smart decisions on defensive rotations. Put him on a team that gives him the green light to chuck it up every time down the floor and he's going to give you numbers but they're empty numbers.

That's not me putting him down because he's not Luka, I said all this before the draft. I actually had him #2 on my board for that draft class and Luka at 3 or 4 before he played a single game at Duke. By the time that college season was over I had Luka over Ayton and Bagley around 9 or 10. It takes a lot for me to change my mind on a prospect after I've seen them play a dozen or so games. Of course Bagley is going to get better, everyone gets better. But is he going to get better in the right ways or his he merely going to be a grown up version of who he already was in college?

So to answer your question, if Bagley grows into an MVP level player like Anthony Davis or Giannis Antetokounmpo then of course I'd get over passing on Luka. I have nothing to gain personally from either player's success nor does it benefit me to cling to a false belief after its been proven false. I'm just going off my best guess here based on everything I've seen. Prospects don't enter the league on equal footing for me, they start with whatever I know about them from watching their careers up to that point. Some people call that bias, but I don't see why that's a bad thing. Everybody has bias. Forming hypotheses and then testing them is just how I engage with the world. To sit passively and not have an opinion is not in my nature. I'm not saying my way is better or worse than anyone else's. Actually, when it comes to supporting the Kings its proven to be exponentially worse because this team always drafts players I wouldn't touch. But I can't seem to turn it off so I go on watching to see how many of my hypotheses turn out to be true.

I may have been right about Luka but then I remember how I strongly I believed that Stanley Johnson was going to be Ron Artest without the crazy and Emmanuel Mudiay was going to be an All-Star and that keeps me humble. I'd love to be wrong about Marvin Bagley because the version of history where he wrecks shop on both ends of the floor would be a lot of fun to see. I do like feeling competent so there is some level of gratification in simply being right but that's not the reason I watch sports. Seeing other human beings navigate their own challenges to excel in their chosen profession is inspiring. Seeing people perform to the absolute pinnacle of physical capability is awe-inspiring. Seeing players sacrifice their egos and win together as a team is visual poetry. I want to witness those fleeting glimpses of magic that remind me that the world can never be fully analyzed and understood. These are just words and words never tell the full story. Don't mistake my criticism for Vlade, Marvin or anyone else as ill intent. I use strong words sometimes for effect but I don't really wish harm on anyone. If Vlade makes only smart choices from here out and turns this team around I'll applaud him just as vigorously as I've called for him to be fired. I do hide behind a wall of cynicism more than I'd care to admit but ultimately I want the same thing here that I always want... a happy ending.

It takes a lot of guts to admit when you're wrong about players - something not many of us can do. Much respect for doing so.

 

[Joshoua]

I love how we’d “have to trade Fox” like he’s a 1 to 1 comparison with freakin’ Dennis Smith.

If De’Arron is as good as we all claim he is, he adapts and he thrives with a player of that caliber on the roster.

If he doesn’t, then you ship him out and oh well, he isn’t all that we hype him up to be anyways.

Even if he’s as good as we think and he doesn’t adapt you trade two Fox’s for a guy averaging 29-10-9 and plays 4 positions