Future of Willie Cauley-Stein?

WCS looked confused in the Jazz game. He actually ran away from Gobert a couple of times, looking to guard God knows who instead of the biggest, tallest player on the court. Of course Gobert scored both times. Very odd. But very Stein.
yep on a break he was back ran out to shooter in the corner who didn't have the ball. Gobert cruised to the rim for a pass and dunk, Like WTF guard the freaking paint.
 
I hope Willie figures it out for his own good.

Consistency. Like, I’m doing everything that I’m supposed to do... I’m doing it, like it’s a routine. I figured it out... I’m gonna do all the things they say you’re supposed to do from the jump
 
WCS is a physical unicorn. Has all the physical attributes that folks drool over.

Dude's also selfish, and worse of all, doesn't know it. He's going to have a good year, because it's his contract year. The Kings should trade him ASAP. You can't have that kind of young vet leading this team. Time to cut bait.
 

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
Myles Turner just signd an $72MM/4yr extension with the Pacers. That contract should serve as an interesting comparison point going forward with Willie.
yikes and Turner hasn't shown enough to warrant that kind of extension he's only shown flashes. I'm too afraid of the thought that the Kings would sign him to an extension with the numbers ranging anywhere from 15-17 mill. per year
 

dude12

Hall of Famer
So with bonuses, Turner can rise to $20M per year. 18-20 per year doesn’t matter what exactly but his rebounding numbers aren’t very good. He didn’t have a break out year last year and in fact may have been a disappo8ntment by what was hoped for. His numbers were similar to WCS last year except from 3 point land.

Nance just signed for around 11.5M I believe. If we want to pay WCS around this mark, then that seems to be the going rate. If he wants closer to Turner money, then the answer is no. We will have to pay other guys at some point.
 
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I really doubt very many teams will be interested in a player who’s contract is up unless they want a expiring contract to dump salary.
I see the kings at best giving him a qualifying offer next year and then hope we can get a sign and trade done.
I hope they can get something for him kinda like the deal with the Cavs last year?
 
Sign me up for 4 years $60MM with Willie!


The Kings are paying Z-Bo, Koufos and Willie $25MM this season, they can afford 15 next year, and the next few for WCS.

That will only put them on the books for like $64MM for 11 players (Farrell option in), still PLENTY of room still for spending.
 
Sign me up for 4 years $60MM with Willie!


The Kings are paying Z-Bo, Koufos and Willie $25MM this season, they can afford 15 next year, and the next few for WCS.

That will only put them on the books for like $64MM for 11 players (Farrell option in), still PLENTY of room still for spending.
These are not legitimate reasons to resign WCS to a $60 mil contract.

If you personally would like to see him resigned, fine, but at least provide some better reasons.
 
These are not legitimate reasons to resign WCS to a $60 mil contract.

If you personally would like to see him resigned, fine, but at least provide some better reasons.
Having some perspective re the impact of a signing to the payroll is helpful and can contribute to the teams logic. I don't disagree though that 15m a year is a bit much based on his current body of work.
 
These are not legitimate reasons to resign WCS to a $60 mil contract.

If you personally would like to see him resigned, fine, but at least provide some better reasons.
Here's 40 reasons. This is the crop of C's the Kings will have to choose from other than Willie to find a starter. Several of them make more than $15MM per season on their current deal.

Also it's said the cap will rise to $110MM next season and then $119MM after that, which means that a starting C at $15MM per year only will become more reasonable as time passes.

Al Horford, Zaza Pachulia, Brook Lopez, Bismack Biyombo, JaVale McGee, Kosta Koufos, Marc Gasol, Greg Monroe, Omer Asik, DeAndre Jordan, Dwight Howard Pau Gasol Ekpe Udoh Robin Lopez, Jason Smith, Tyson Chandler, Nikola Vucevic, Kyle O'Quinn, Jonas Valanciunas, DeMarcus Cousins, Marcin Gortat, Enes Kanter, Nene, Aron Baynes, Nerlens Noel, Dewayne Dedmon, Alexis Ajinca, Khem Birch, Hassan Whiteside, Willie Cauley-Stein, Boban Marjanovic, Salah Mejri, Ivica Zubac, A.J. Hammons, Deyonta Davis, Guillermo Hernangomez, Luke Kornet,Thomas Bryant, Dakari Johnson, Ike Anigbogu
 
I abide by the golden rule of pricing, always, which is things are worth what people will pay for them.

I'm much more worried about other teams running up the price on the Kings, than re-signing him.
 
Here's 40 reasons. This is the crop of C's the Kings will have to choose from other than Willie to find a starter. Several of them make more than $15MM per season on their current deal.

Also it's said the cap will rise to $110MM next season and then $119MM after that, which means that a starting C at $15MM per year only will become more reasonable as time passes.

Al Horford, Zaza Pachulia, Brook Lopez, Bismack Biyombo, JaVale McGee, Kosta Koufos, Marc Gasol, Greg Monroe, Omer Asik, DeAndre Jordan, Dwight Howard Pau Gasol Ekpe Udoh Robin Lopez, Jason Smith, Tyson Chandler, Nikola Vucevic, Kyle O'Quinn, Jonas Valanciunas, DeMarcus Cousins, Marcin Gortat, Enes Kanter, Nene, Aron Baynes, Nerlens Noel, Dewayne Dedmon, Alexis Ajinca, Khem Birch, Hassan Whiteside, Willie Cauley-Stein, Boban Marjanovic, Salah Mejri, Ivica Zubac, A.J. Hammons, Deyonta Davis, Guillermo Hernangomez, Luke Kornet,Thomas Bryant, Dakari Johnson, Ike Anigbogu
To find a starter? I think we’re hoping that’s Bagley/Giles
 

dude12

Hall of Famer
WCS at a cost of $12-15 is ok......but I do think since they have the younger guys, we may be better off in the long run in getting a backup C who knows their role or reallocate that money in a SF since we have depth at C. I think WCS does some good things on the court but I have to agree with others that consistency is a problem and we now have some younger bigs who seem to bring it every night.
 
Here's 40 reasons. This is the crop of C's the Kings will have to choose from other than Willie to find a starter. Several of them make more than $15MM per season on their current deal.

Also it's said the cap will rise to $110MM next season and then $119MM after that, which means that a starting C at $15MM per year only will become more reasonable as time passes.

Al Horford, Zaza Pachulia, Brook Lopez, Bismack Biyombo, JaVale McGee, Kosta Koufos, Marc Gasol, Greg Monroe, Omer Asik, DeAndre Jordan, Dwight Howard Pau Gasol Ekpe Udoh Robin Lopez, Jason Smith, Tyson Chandler, Nikola Vucevic, Kyle O'Quinn, Jonas Valanciunas, DeMarcus Cousins, Marcin Gortat, Enes Kanter, Nene, Aron Baynes, Nerlens Noel, Dewayne Dedmon, Alexis Ajinca, Khem Birch, Hassan Whiteside, Willie Cauley-Stein, Boban Marjanovic, Salah Mejri, Ivica Zubac, A.J. Hammons, Deyonta Davis, Guillermo Hernangomez, Luke Kornet,Thomas Bryant, Dakari Johnson, Ike Anigbogu
Your reason for signing Willie Cauley-Stein to $60 mil is because of the free agent Cs available? Again, we're still sitting in this space of illegitimate reasons.


The player you have been so convinced is an important piece to the puzzle has been less important and more of a puzzle. His impact stats scream mediocrity. His effort screams medicority. His desire screams mediocrity. His heart screams mediocrity. Yet we are supposed to get onboard with handing him a big paycheck? Not right now and never from here on out unless he turns a massive corner this season.

1539708353630.png

You would hope he would be 5th or lower in Team Rank
You would hope he would be 30th or lower in C Rank
You would hope he would be 150th or lower in Total Rank

But alas, he's not. His stats scream bench player to bench warmer. You don't pay a guy like that $60 mil over 4 years, and if you do, you're hamstringing your club.
 
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Nance signed a 4 year 44.8 mil contract, that actually declines in salary. WCS stats are very similar. Both have a career 16.5 per.
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Nance's impact stats have been far better than WCS year over year. I really hope we don't generate a future bad contract when currently we have zero on our roster. Stay patient, stay smart.
 
View attachment 8331

Nance's impact stats have been far better than WCS year over year. I really hope we don't generate a future bad contract when currently we have zero on our roster. Stay patient, stay smart.
These are flawed stats, cited without any context. For example, Nance's on/off at the Lakers is -0.6 while his on/off at Cavaliers is +5.5. Is he making more an impact at the Cavaliers? Not really. It just happened that he start a few games with Lebron James so of course his on/off would be positive playing with Lebron.

Here is last year roster with on/off.
on off.PNG

With that kind of impact, how much is Cabloco, Sampson or Cooley worth? Is Buddy Hield 10pt better than Bogi?

With any stat, context is needed. RAPM, RPM and on/off are pretty much the same thing.
 
just happened that he start a few games with Lebron James so of course his on/off would be positive playing with Lebron.
That is not how on/off works.

With that kind of impact, how much is Cabloco, Sampson or Cooley worth? Is Buddy Hield 10pt better than Bogi?
In these instances, I would argue that their competition levels were different being that Bogdan was a starter, Hield was coming off he bench, and the others were getting garbage minutes here and there.

RAPM, RPM and on/off are pretty much the same thing.
You must have a pretty wide tolerance when you use the phrase “pretty much.”

Yes, they try to assess the same thing (players impact on the floor) but that doesn’t mean you can point to the flaws of on/off and attribute them to RAPM and RPM.

RAPM is probably the best of the bunch with it’s ability to account for not only the competition but teammates as well. While on/off is probably the weakest.

It’s beside the point. All stats are flawed just like all “eye tests” are flawed. But if we’re seeing a heavy concentration of some of the best impact stats point in one direction, it’s more likely than not going to give me the correct answer.
 
View attachment 8331

Nance's impact stats have been far better than WCS year over year. I really hope we don't generate a future bad contract when currently we have zero on our roster. Stay patient, stay smart.

Nance vs WCS is a good litmus test for people understanding "non box-score impact" and the importance of knowing who you are as a player. I think WCS is naturally just more talented than Nance, but Nance works to maximize his skill-set as a high energy/good rebounding, defense, high efficiency big. Few other stats to Consider:

Nance in 2017-2018:
USG: 15.9%
TOV: 9.7%
TS: 60.5%
TRB%: 17.3%


WCS:
USG: 21.8%
TOV: 11%
TS: 52.9%
TRB: 14.2%


Can't tell me that WCS and Nance are really all that close in terms of impact. WCS suffers from an identity crisis of who he should be as a player (we already knew this), while Nance has turned himself into a really productive big who compliments strong wing play.
 
Nance vs WCS is a good litmus test for people understanding "non box-score impact" and the importance of knowing who you are as a player. I think WCS is naturally just more talented than Nance, but Nance works to maximize his skill-set as a high energy/good rebounding, defense, high efficiency big. Few other stats to Consider:

Nance in 2017-2018:
USG: 15.9%
TOV: 9.7%
TS: 60.5%
TRB%: 17.3%


WCS:
USG: 21.8%
TOV: 11%
TS: 52.9%
TRB: 14.2%


Can't tell me that WCS and Nance are really all that close in terms of impact. WCS suffers from an identity crisis of who he should be as a player (we already knew this), while Nance has turned himself into a really productive big who compliments strong wing play.
Eh, I think one has a motor, the other doesn’t. But same difference. WCS hasn’t proven to be good and shouldn’t get near that
 
That is not how on/off works.



In these instances, I would argue that their competition levels were different being that Bogdan was a starter, Hield was coming off he bench, and the others were getting garbage minutes here and there.


You must have a pretty wide tolerance when you use the phrase “pretty much.”

Yes, they try to assess the same thing (players impact on the floor) but that doesn’t mean you can point to the flaws of on/off and attribute them to RAPM and RPM.

RAPM is probably the best of the bunch with it’s ability to account for not only the competition but teammates as well. While on/off is probably the weakest.

It’s beside the point. All stats are flawed just like all “eye tests” are flawed. But if we’re seeing a heavy concentration of some of the best impact stats point in one direction, it’s more likely than not going to give me the correct answer.
Sorry I may have worded poorly. These stats basically measure value over replacements. You don't want to compare them across teams or even compare players within a team but at different positions. Star players will always have good number.

Back to Nance for example. He's -.6 at Lakers while he +5.5 at Cavaliers. At Lakers, he competed against the likes of Kuzma and Randle. At Cavaliers, he competed against Thompson.

Example to show you the flaw of RPM, take a look at Kelly Olynyk's RPM the last 3 years
2015-2016 3.34
2016-2017 0.5
2017-2018 2.82
He's been a similar player over his career. How can his winning impact fluctuate so? The answer is in team composition. Backing up Jared Sullinger is entirely different from backing up Al Horford, and different from backing up Hassan Whiteside. Maybe RAPM does a better job of excluding external factors but since no formula has been released, I don't know.

As far as WCS is concerned, he had the best on/off or RPM number among the team's starters and better than his true replacement, Koufos. You need to provide that kind of clarification along side of ranking them.

I am pretty sure guys are getting paid based on their skill sets, not their RPM.