Kings reach agreement w/Bjelica 3yrs/$20.5M

Vlade reaching out to Bjelica? What do you think?


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bajaden

Hall of Famer
Exactly. 28-32 years of age is prime time in the NBA.
I would say its between 27 and 33, but then I'm nit picking. It really comes down to the individual player. Some players, like Lebron have more wear and tear on them than a player like Bjelica. I always look to the thousand game rule, and how most NBA players never make it to a thousand games. Lebron is a freak of nature at age 33 and having already played in 1,143 games while averaging 37 minutes a game. That's to his credit, but it also means that the little injuries could start popping up at any time.

Curry is a better example. He's 30 years old and averages 34 minutes a game. He's only played in 625 games so far. Does anyone truly believe he'll make it to 1000 games with his current injury history. My point is that Bjelica's usage rate is nowhere near those of Lebron or Curry, and he hasn't played in nearly as many games. So he's a much younger 30 than Curry is. I wouldn't be too worried about Bjelica's age.

I once had a sports medicine doctor tell me that the human body is made up of multiple hinges. Knee's, elbows, ankles, etc. And like any mechanical device, they wear out over time. The human body does a great job of replenishing itself, and the individual can help by eating right and taking the right supplements. But there is an inevitable end. The question is, when?

That said, I like Bjelica and think he would be a nice additiion to the team. If you dig through his stat history, he's more productive the more minutes he plays. And as previously stated, when Butler went down with an injury he was inserted into the starting lineup at the SF position, and he played quite well. He's a better than average defender, even at SF, but as it's also been stated, he could defend the 4 and play the 3 on offense switching roles with either Bagley or Giles. Not saying he's the be all end all, but that you need players like him on your bench. Hope they sign him!
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
I'll concede it was 25 years ago, and it was Bill Walton, but Bill Walton told me at UC Davis basketball camp that 27 is peak. I do understand that players can play longer, but since they are also beginning their pro careers earlier, 27 is often the 7th pro year and that takes it's toll.

Still I think the goal is generally for teams to make sure they don't sign a long term big money deal that goes past 33.
Growing up, I always heard it was 27 - 33.
I always heard 28-32, and coincidentally this morning I heard Richard Jefferson on NBA: The Jump say it was 28-32. In any case, it's in the vicinity.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
I think the bigger thing is that the fall off seems to be 33.

So whether he's 27 or 30, as long as we're talking 3 years or less should be cool.
Well, if the fall off is 33, then someone forgot to tell the Lakers that. Lebron just signed a four year contract starting at age 33.......... Just saying... Personally, I think it's the amount of games played more than it's the age of the player.
 
Well, if the fall off is 33, then someone forgot to tell the Lakers that. Lebron just signed a four year contract starting at age 33.......... Just saying... Personally, I think it's the amount of games played more than it's the age of the player.
Some of my co-worker Laker fans think the Lakers will be challenging the Warriors in the WCF this year....I think its delusional to expect that immediately. I think both the Pelicans and Jazz are up to the challenge on top of Houston . And even the T-Wolves . James is no spring-chicken as the saying goes. There'd have to be some serious mesh for that kind of improvement in the 1st season.
 

pdxKingsFan

So Ordinary That It's Truly Quite Extraordinary
Staff member
Well, if the fall off is 33, then someone forgot to tell the Lakers that. Lebron just signed a four year contract starting at age 33.......... Just saying... Personally, I think it's the amount of games played more than it's the age of the player.
LeBron has more mileage than anyone at 33. I think his skillset and how he has managed his body is fine but he's also fortunate never to have gotten a major injury. I think we saw with Kobe how old he grew overnight when his ankle gave.
 
Bjelica will be a 1) good 2) great fit if

1) Fox and our bigs will show that have the ability to kick the ball out to open 3 point shooters. With Hield, Bogdan and Bjelica the Kings need to be in the top 10 in 3 point attempts.

2) Bagley can truly match up defensively with a 3. That will allow Bjelica to match up with the slower least offensive players.
No Bjlecia has actually defended SFs in the nba and done it successfully, Bagley hasn’t he guards the PF Bjlecia stays on the SFs
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
Just for the heck of it, I looked up some great players to see when they started to fold up the tent. The general rule is their last good year is always around 33 or 34 years of age. There are some exceptions of course like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, who at age 38 scored 23.4 ppg, grabbed 6.1 rebounds, and blocked 1.6 shots. While those were good or even great numbers for a good NBA player, they were poor numbers for Jabbar when compared with the earlier days of his career.

Wilt Chamberlain's last good year was at age 34 when he averaged 20.7 ppg, 4.3 apg, and 18.2 rpg. Of course they didn't keep track of steals or blocked shots in his day. Remember, Wilt averaged 45.8 minutes per game for his career. Here are some other examples of the last good year in the listed players careers.

Ray Allen: Age 35 - 16.5 ppg - 3.4 rpg - 2.7 apg - 49.1% fgp
Rick Barry: Age 33 - 23.1 ppg - 5.5 rpg - 5.4 apg - 1.9 spg - 45.1% fgp
Larry Bird: Age 35 - 20.2 ppg - 9.6 rpg - 6.8 apg - 46.6% fgp
Tim Duncan: Age 36 - 17.8 ppg - 9.9 rpg - 2.7 apg - 2.7 bpg - 50.2% fgp
Kevin Garnett: Age 36 - 14.8 ppg - 7.8 rpg - 2.3 apg - 1.1 spg - 49.6% fgp
Julius Irving: Age 35 - 18.1 ppg - 5.0 rpg - 3.4 apg - 1.5 spg - 48.0% fgp
Michael Jordan: Age 34 - 28.7 ppg - 5.8 rpg - 3.5 apg - 1.7 spg - 46.5% fgp. Jordan retired at age 34 for three years, and then came back to play for the Wiz for two years at age's 38 and 39 averaging 22.9 and 20.0 ppg respectively.

I think its also necessary to note that both Garnett's and Allens ppg dropped dramatically after joining the Celtics. Both players sacrificed parts of their game to win a championship. One of the things I used as an indicator of a players diminishing abilities was his efficiency. Almost all of the players listed had a few more seasons where they put up what would be decent to good numbers for an average player, but their efficiency was dramatically worse.

I could go on and give you hundreds of examples. In almost every case, all the players suffered a drop off at, or near the one thousand game mark.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
You’d think Capela was prime Shaq the way people on here talk about him like he was spoon feed by 2 elite passers
I think Capela is in the perfect situation for him. He would probably be a good fit on the Warriors team as well. But take him and put him on a bad team, and he will have far less impact, if any impact at all. He's an excellent role player, and he knows his role and embraces it. But he's a terrible free throw shooter, so you don't want him on the floor at the end of a close game. He can't put the ball on the floor. He's a poor passer, and he has zero game away from the basket.

He's a specialized luxury player on a good team, where his flaws can be hidden. On a team like the Kings, those flaws would be exposed. He's certainly not a max contract player, or a player you overpay for. My gut tells me that Bagley, in time, will be able to do everything Capela can do, and more. Much more! All Capela would have done is take minutes away from our young players.
 
Looking at random ex Kings like Hedo, Peja, Christie, Richmond etc. They all seemed to have their last successful years between the ages of 30 and 33. Peja was the youngest of the bunch to have his skills fall off at the age of 30.
 
So Bjelica will be that age when we start realistically competing for the playoffs?
Right but if we can show with him we actually have a core that can compete in the playoffs maybe we can get the last piece (small forward) in free agency. To me that is why it is critical we have someone who can stretch the floor reliably. That opens every thing else up and Jackson shooting 31% doesn't cut it.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
Well, if the fall off is 33, then someone forgot to tell the Lakers that. Lebron just signed a four year contract starting at age 33.......... Just saying... Personally, I think it's the amount of games played more than it's the age of the player.
And he's going to turn 34 in late December of next year. The Lakers are banking on the fact that even with drop off he's very good. A couple of seasons from now though it's going to be pretty evident LBJ is not the same LBJ.
 
No Bjlecia has actually defended SFs in the nba and done it successfully, Bagley hasn’t he guards the PF Bjlecia stays on the SFs
Bjlecia isn't quick enough to guard the Durant's, James, Butlers in the Western Conference. I'm not sure Bagley can either but I am sure Beli isn't getting any quicker at 30.
 
He did a decent job this year and I’d put him over a guy who couldn’t guard SFs at Duke
A lot of the same stuff said about Bjelica was said about Bogie...to slow to defend SG to weak to defend SF's people don't seem to understand that solid size combined with solid IQ can make up for things (you won't be prime Tony Allen/Marcus Smart) even a guy like Kyle Korver was a decent defender.

Bjelica is a SF and easily the best SF by a wide margin on the current Kings roster and for that reason alone I beleive Joerger will play him only as a big lol.

Bjlecia isn't quick enough to guard the Durant's, James, Butlers in the Western Conference. I'm not sure Bagley can either but I am sure Beli isn't getting any quicker at 30.
There's plenty of guys that are quick enough/strong enough that can't either aside from fully healthy Leonard/PG13/Butler realisitilly no one can defend those guys and even they struggle.
 

Entity

Hall of Famer
Bjlecia isn't quick enough to guard the Durant's, James, Butlers in the Western Conference. I'm not sure Bagley can either but I am sure Beli isn't getting any quicker at 30.
It’s a flawed system to judge a guys defense based on if he can defend LeBron James or Kevin Durant. 23 all star games 4 MVP 5 finals MVP between those 2 guys. Lebron put up 23 points against one of the best defenders of his time in his fist NBA game. Nobody can guard those guys
 
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